Gordon Hayward 2020: I'm standing here in pieces and you're having delusions of grandeur!

lovegtm

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The C's bench depth is thin in terms of proven capabilities. That is inescapable. I also think its a legacy of the Irving (and likely other bad roster fits) era. My guess is that the front office determined that the risk to chemistry and development wasn't worth going for more veteran help at the deadline.
That, and the fact that the guys available were mediocre creator types, and the Celtics really needed a 3-point shooting roleplayer who wasn't out there. Even with Hayward out, the Cs still have 5 ball-handlers.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Ugh, this straight up sucks. With the Lakers, Clips and Bucks all scuffling to various degrees, I was starting to believe there was a real opening for the Cs to shock the world this year. Losing arguably their third best player — a battle tested vet who’s gonna make the smart play/pass in crunch time, drain open threes, guard multiple positions, hit every FT — hurts a lot, I think. Like they just went from a 10% title shot to ... what, more like 2%?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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That, and the fact that the guys available were mediocre creator types, and the Celtics really needed a 3-point shooting roleplayer who wasn't out there. Even with Hayward out, the Cs still have 5 ball-handlers.
I agree there was no one obvious. However Alec Burks is a serviceable shooter and frankly, the C's could have found some use for Glenn Robinson III as well. I know why they didn't pull the trigger but the cost wasn't huge - it would look like a good move now too.
 

JakeRae

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I agree there was no one obvious. However Alec Burks is a serviceable shooter and frankly, the C's could have found some use for Glenn Robinson III as well. I know why they didn't pull the trigger but the cost wasn't huge - it would look like a good move now too.
Glen Robinson is awful. I’m not saying he’s worse than Semi. He’s not. They are both equally bad NBA players. I’m not much of a fan of Semi, but even saying the above, he’s a better fit for our roster. Given a choice of a bench wing that is ok at defense and bad at offense or one that is bad at defense and ok at offense, I would pick the former. This is also part of why I prefer Grant Williams, who is good at defense but awful at offense. I’m also more optimistic that Grant Williams can be just bad offensively than that Semi or Glenn Robinson can become anything other than what they are.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Glen Robinson is awful. I’m not saying he’s worse than Semi. He’s not. They are both equally bad NBA players. I’m not much of a fan of Semi, but even saying the above, he’s a better fit for our roster. Given a choice of a bench wing that is ok at defense and bad at offense or one that is bad at defense and ok at offense, I would pick the former. This is also part of why I prefer Grant Williams, who is good at defense but awful at offense. I’m also more optimistic that Grant Williams can be just bad offensively than that Semi or Glenn Robinson can become anything other than what they are.
Agreed though I am higher on Ojeleye given his defense. My only point is that if Golden State asked someone to take the tail of Robinson's contract as a condition for a Burks deal, I cannot see that being a deal breaker for Boston.

Also, I don't love Burks but dude can get buckets. Right now, Boston needs all the offense they can get.
 
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128

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A bit depressing reading about grade 3 lateral ankle sprains. Never heard of an ankle sprain that you couldn't walk on.
I'll defer to RadSoxFan, but I believe a Grade III sprain is what's typically called a "high-ankle sprain."
 

Smokey Joe

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I'll defer to RadSoxFan, but I believe a Grade III sprain is what's typically called a "high-ankle sprain."
A high ankle sprain is a different set of ligaments then the more common set around the malleoli. Grade III simply means that the ligaments are torn rather then just stretched. It requires immobilization and more time to heal.
 

128

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A high ankle sprain is a different set of ligaments then the more common set around the malleoli. Grade III simply means that the ligaments are torn rather then just stretched. It requires immobilization and more time to heal.
Thanks. So is Grade III the most severe sprain?
 

radsoxfan

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A high ankle sprain is a different set of ligaments then the more common set around the malleoli. Grade III simply means that the ligaments are torn rather then just stretched. It requires immobilization and more time to heal.
This is correct, "high ankle sprain" refers to different ligaments a little higher up the ankle, not how badly the ankle is sprained. High ankle ligaments have a bigger role in overall stability so a grade 3 high ankle sprain would have been even worse news.

Grade 3 is the worst, basically means that they are completely torn (his low lateral ligaments, likely at least anterior talofibular and calcaneofibular). There are only 3 grades though we often will say something in between (like grade 1/2, grade 2/3) to have a little more precision and make 5 total grades.

In the general population we rarely image them immediately. Usually they get x-Rays at the ortho office or ER, then a follow up MRI as needed. Sometimes they can be a little tricky to grade, might look fully torn if there is lots of swelling and bleeding but could be partially intact.

They also don't have to be completely healed for him to play, it's mostly about the swelling and symptom management. Sometimes the swelling goes down quicker than expected and you can get back out there in 2-3 weeks. Sometimes it's more than 4 weeks also, don't mean to paint an overly rosy picture, just that it's hard to predict right now.
 

DJnVa

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Apparently Hayward hasn’t left bubble and was at game tonight. I didn’t notice him on bench but as Celtics pulled away I wasn’t as intensely focused on things.
 

lovegtm

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OK, so 70% of this is the high of the win, 30% real analysis. Also, for the record, I think Gordon Hayward had his burst back and is a really good basketball player.

But...

Having the clarity of “Tatum, Kemba, go eat” looks really good. I get the theory of their multi-pronged attack, and Brad did a great job this game keeping the actions dynamic.

But those 2 guys are so gifted offensively that I think there’s real value in just designing everything around them. If you look back at the game 1 film, Hayward was mostly a spot-up guy anyway.

I would like Hayward a lot against Toronto, LAC, and Houston, but for the Celtics’ other matchups, I think they could find another level by forcing Tatum and Kemba to take their games to another level.
 

InstaFace

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Hayward's had more of his fast-break and drive/layup game back since the bubble restart. A few sick jams, too. We clearly don't need him to beat Philly, but I think we'd really need him to attack some of the weaker spots in the Toronto lineup - Norman Powell and Terence Davis specifically. Whenever you have Van Vleet out of the game, we need our bench to feast, and that would be a lot more likely when you account for his various offensive skills. Not to mention the amount of rest his presence can provide to all the other starters.

All is not lost, but as someone else said earlier, our chance of an upset there is greatly reduced with his absence. This isn't like losing Kyrie two years ago and then having a Ewing Theory run to the ECF.
 

lovegtm

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Hayward's had more of his fast-break and drive/layup game back since the bubble restart. A few sick jams, too. We clearly don't need him to beat Philly, but I think we'd really need him to attack some of the weaker spots in the Toronto lineup - Norman Powell and Terence Davis specifically. Whenever you have Van Vleet out of the game, we need our bench to feast, and that would be a lot more likely when you account for his various offensive skills. Not to mention the amount of rest his presence can provide to all the other starters.

All is not lost, but as someone else said earlier, our chance of an upset there is greatly reduced with his absence. This isn't like losing Kyrie two years ago and then having a Ewing Theory run to the ECF.
With Hayward in the lineup, I think the Celtics were clear favorites against Toronto, especially as rotations shorten.

Without Hayward, I think it’s a coinflip. The Celtics are a very bad matchup for the Raptors—they’re a lot more athletic and can take them out of a lot of their advantage matchups. I’m extremely optimistic wrt Brown handling Siakam.
 

128

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Has anyone seen anything more specific than "in September" for the Haywards' due date? If the baby arrives in early September, that would be ideal in terms of his return to the C's. If it's late September, we may not see Hayward again this season.
 

NomarsFool

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I thought it was mid. But, I think the ankle is going to keep him out longer than the baby. He's got to get better, and then also needs to work on getting into game shape and everything.
 

mauf

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I always hate these complaints.

1) Who has "great depth" beyond the #7 spot on their roster?

2) How deep are playoff rotations? Usually 7 deep, with maybe a few minutes given to an 8 or 9 guy based on matchups, but they are never a decisive matter

We have KW, MS, JT, JB and DT as starters, with EK and RW as backup bigs, and BW the 3rd guard. That's 8 (was 9 with GH), and other than Kanter's defense there's really not a glaring hole.

This news promotes some combination of Semi, Grant and Langford (health depending) to a total of about 15 minutes a game between the 3 of them, matchup-dependent, with the rest of Hayward's load going to an increase to the 4 primary non-bigs, and probably JT doing a bit more ball handling. The biggest fall-off is from GH's outside shooting and drive ability. But if that is (was) Hayward's main strength, it's a strength that we have in depth. This isn't like losing Kemba's speed and finishing, or Smart's D, nevermind the things the Jays bring to the table.

I'm bothered, but not distraught.
I do think it’s a depth question.

I haven’t gone team by team, but I think you’d find most teams run an 8-man playoff rotation. Those guys average 30 minutes per game, and the last 4 guys on the bench see limited time absent foul trouble or an injury. And if an injury takes you down from 8 to 7, there’s some surge capacity; not all the lost minutes go to non-rotation players.

The C’s entered the playoffs with a 7-man rotation, 2 of whom (Theis and Kanter) can’t play together. That leaves the other 5 guys averaging 36 minutes a night, with 16 minutes left over for some combination of Semi/Wanamaker/Green/Langford. (Brad’s curious decision to give some of the Theis/Kanter minutes to Time Lord is a separate issue.)

That 7-man rotation was workable, but there’s no surge capacity, so when Hayward gets hurt, suddenly you’re looking at 52 minutes a night for guys most of us wouldn’t consider rotation-worthy. That means you’ve either got to sneak in a couple second-team shifts, like you do in the regular season, or you’re trying to hide one or two of those guys on the floor for most of the game.

The Sixers without Simmons aren’t a good team and have depth issues of their own, so the C’s lack of depth wasn’t much exposed. The Raptors present a tougher challenge, and I think Hayward’s absence will reveal itself not in terms of missing the things a healthy GH can do, but in terms of mismatches with guys who normally wouldn’t be on the floor.
 

DJnVa

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I do think it’s a depth question.

I haven’t gone team by team, but I think you’d find most teams run an 8-man playoff rotation. Those guys average 30 minutes per game,
I'm not sure that's the case any longer. Of the top 6 teams in the East, only 3 have as many as 8 guys averaging 15 minutes--Boston, Mil, Toronto. Most have about 10 guys playing around double-digit minutes.
 

mauf

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I'm not sure that's the case any longer. Of the top 6 teams in the East, only 3 have as many as 8 guys averaging 15 minutes--Boston, Mil, Toronto. Most have about 10 guys playing around double-digit minutes.
Thanks. It’s only the first round, but it’s remarkable how many other teams are running 6-7 man rotations, but spreading the rest of the minutes fairly evenly across a group of role players.

The problem with the C’s is that unless you believe the SSS numbers on Grant Williams, the role players haven’t been very good. Which was a known issue coming into the playoffs; Wanamaker was alright, but the other back-end guys simply aren’t good. With the possible exception of the Lakers, there won’t be any team still playing a week from now that gives as many minutes as we will to a player as bad as Semi.

None of which is to criticize anyone — Semi seems to make the most of his limited abilities, and Danny was right to sign Kemba, hope the rookies would develop faster than expected, and live with the resulting lack of depth if they didn’t.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Thanks. It’s only the first round, but it’s remarkable how many other teams are running 6-7 man rotations, but spreading the rest of the minutes fairly evenly across a group of role players.

The problem with the C’s is that unless you believe the SSS numbers on Grant Williams, the role players haven’t been very good. Which was a known issue coming into the playoffs; Wanamaker was alright, but the other back-end guys simply aren’t good. With the possible exception of the Lakers, there won’t be any team still playing a week from now that gives as many minutes as we will to a player as bad as Semi.

None of which is to criticize anyone — Semi seems to make the most of his limited abilities, and Danny was right to sign Kemba, hope the rookies would develop faster than expected, and live with the resulting lack of depth if they didn’t.
While I understand what you are saying, I think what you are saying plays into Brad's best strength as a coach - that is, he can recognize matchups to best use the specific talents of his role players. (As a side note, that's one thing that was glaringly absent from PHI last series - Brown seemed to be throwing his substitutions at the proverbial wall and seeing what sticks without actually having a plan on how he was going to use specific guys and in what situations.) So against PHI, Kanter gets a ton of run because he's good in the post on both sides and can make Embiid work. Kanter is not going to play as much against TOR because Nurse is going to put him PnR after PnR. So that's where TL or even Grant gets to pick up minutes.

I also think Romeo will get more minutes this series because they can use his defense against TOR's guards.

Besides, LAC was playing Reggie Jackson in OT against the Mavs the other night. HOU had Ben McLemore play 8 minutes. Utah had two guys I've never seen play - Juwan Morgan (rookie out of HS) and Tony Bradley - playing almost 11 and over 8 minutes. Teams don't have a lot of depth these days to offset losses of major players but I trust Brad to figure out the best potential solution for the Cs. If the Cs lose, it's not going to be because of the downgrade from Hayward to the rest of the bench mob IMO.
 

radsoxfan

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Agree with mauf 100%. The Celtics can still beat Toronto, but the depth is definitely an issue. I think Steven's will be able to mix and match better than most coaches would, but the truth is that he is going to have to give minutes to guys that shouldn't be playing in the NBA playoffs. Some teams don't have to do that.

Just to put some (albeit imperfect) regular season PER numbers to generally show what's going on.
Wanamaker 12.85
G Williams 7.91
Ojeleye 7.71
Langford 5.38

The rest of the rotation guys are all higher than that, some much higher of course. Every team has a declining slope as you get deeper and deeper into the bench. But there really is a HUGE cliff after Wanamaker, more severe than most teams have within the rotation. These guys are either developmental projects or scrubs at this point. You can mix and match all you want, but in the end they are just not good right now.

The major issues will come up with any foul trouble or god forbid another injury. At this point, I think the firepower is still there to win the series.
 

radsoxfan

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And just for comparison, the lowest regular season PER of any of the Toronto players getting legit minutes in the playoffs is Marc Gasol at 11.78
 

Jimbodandy

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Agree with mauf 100%. The Celtics can still beat Toronto, but the depth is definitely an issue. I think Steven's will be able to mix and match better than most coaches would, but the truth is that he is going to have to give minutes to guys that shouldn't be playing in the NBA playoffs. Some teams don't have to do that.

Just to put some (albeit imperfect) regular season PER numbers to generally show what's going on.
Wanamaker 12.85
G Williams 7.91
Ojeleye 7.71
Langford 5.38

The rest of the rotation guys are all higher than that, some much higher of course. Every team has a declining slope as you get deeper and deeper into the bench. But there really is a HUGE cliff after Wanamaker, more severe than most teams have within the rotation. These guys are either developmental projects or scrubs at this point. You can mix and match all you want, but in the end they are just not good right now.

The major issues will come up with any foul trouble or god forbid another injury. At this point, I think the firepower is still there to win the series.
Not that those guys are studs, but PER doesn't tell you enough about defense.

The dropoff looks bad now that Hayward is out, but it wasn't much of a problem at all when it was a solid top 6. Sprinkling in a defensive-specialist, screen setter with 2-3 of Tatum/Brown/Hayward/Walker/Smart on the floor at all times is a pretty nice model. And as noted above, one injury to a contender like the Clippers or Rockets has them playing guys like McLemore and Jackson in crunch time.
 

radsoxfan

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The dropoff looks bad now that Hayward is out, but it wasn't much of a problem at all when it was a solid top 6.
I agree, extreme fringe minutes for those guys was fine. Stealing a few minutes here and there based on the matchups would be OK.

But it's hard fill in Haywards 30+ minutes a game without being forced to give at least 1 (or maybe 2) of those guys some legit run now. Having another half decent vet to bridge the gap would have been nice, but oh well.
 

benhogan

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And just for comparison, the lowest regular season PER of any of the Toronto players getting legit minutes in the playoffs is Marc Gasol at 11.78
Plus that PER is misleading. Gasol is in much better physical shape after 3 mths off.

After Toronto's Championship run, then Spain's World Championship victory last Summer. At 35 he came into the NBA season pretty beaten-up
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Again, radsox is right in that there is no stat that captures this perfectly but PER or PIPM or most of the other metrics are fairly consistent. The C's bench is pretty putrid on paper.

Regardless of what you look at, the Celtics bench is pretty putrid and even if you increase Tatum and Brown's minutes, you still have to account for 30+ minutes of play with some combo of, on paper, terrible choices vs a Toronto roster that, to Ujiri's immense credit, always seems fairly deep. It will be fascinating to see what Stevens and his staff come up with in terms of matchups.
 

bsj

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Whats the latest timeline on haywards recovery? Assuming he's out this whole series. back if they make the next round? Seems like a theoretical game 7 would be 3 days before the 4 week mark.
 

The Raccoon

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Whats the latest timeline on haywards recovery? Assuming he's out this whole series. Any chance he could be back if they make the next round? Seems like a theoretical game 7 would be 3 days before the 4 week mark.
I think Doris Burke said in yesterdays broadcast, that CBS doesn't expect GH back this series, but he may come back for/during a potential ECF series.
 

NomarsFool

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I haven't seen any reports about Hayward at all, other than he is back in Indiana. I would think we should hopefully be getting some updates soon.
 

128

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I haven't seen any reports about Hayward at all, other than he is back in Indiana. I would think we should hopefully be getting some updates soon.
At this point, the news I want to hear is that his wife has given birth to a healthy child. Until that happens, Hayward's ankle is secondary, because he's not coming back to the bubble until the baby is born, from all I've read.
 

128

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I think the ankle will keep him out longer than the baby, but we'll see.
Yeah, I'm not counting on having him back for any of the games against Toronto. Let's hope there's a third-round series that he's available for. That seems like a realistic goal, if all goes well on the home front for Hayward.
 

Burkharts Uppercut

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I was wondering how they were going to deal with the extended absence quarantine period. Makes sense with the bubble rules to have him come back and do his 4 day quarantine period now, leave the bubble again for the birth of his child, and be eligible to play right away on return, hopefully in synch with a healed ankle if they advance to the next round.
 

128

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I was wondering how they were going to deal with the extended absence quarantine period. Makes sense with the bubble rules to have him come back and do his 4 day quarantine period now, leave the bubble again for the birth of his child, and be eligible to play right away on return, hopefully in synch with a healed ankle if they advance to the next round.
Pretty sure this refers to his return after the baby's birth:

Hayward will be subject to at least a four-day quarantine upon return, meaning he could miss another string of games depending on when he’s able to return and the delivery date.
 

Burkharts Uppercut

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You're right, for some reason I thought the Mike Conley had come back faster but using him as a guide he was gone from the bubble for 2 days and quarantined for 4 more days. With the ECF starting on 9/15, maybe by having him return to the bubble, they're hoping he can sneak in game 1.
 

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Can we get a maternity ward moved to the bubble? We're only paying the guy $34 million dollars this year, let's hook something up.
 

NomarsFool

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I wasn't terribly encouraged by Stevens' comments. Given how they usually are extremely positive, saying it is going "okay" and his gait is still impacted - feels to me like he is unlikely to return in the next two weeks or so. We may only get him back for the Finals, which would still help.
 

128

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I wasn't terribly encouraged by Stevens' comments. Given how they usually are extremely positive, saying it is going "okay" and his gait is still impacted - feels to me like he is unlikely to return in the next two weeks or so. We may only get him back for the Finals, which would still help.
I'll defer to RadSoxFan, but I don't think this was ever going to be an injury Hayward came back quickly from.
 
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Euclis20

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I don’t know, I wouldn’t want him back until he’s at 100% full strength. I’d be concerned that half speed Hayward would do more harm than good as we saw in 2019.
2019 Hayward was a shadow of his former (and current) self, but was still a viable bench player. If Smart stayed in the starting lineup, last year's Hayward would be our best and most versatile bench player right now.