Gordon Hayward 2020: C'mon baby, hold together!

lovegtm

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Butler would be a good comp with a good reputation.

Would be funny if you did Embiid.

I know none of us could afford it but the motion trackers they have in NBA arenas these day could probably give some insight into how much people move on defense during a game.
LOL @Embiid. Don’t think you need a deep dive for that...I watched the rough highlights of the recent Bucks game and just kept throwing my hands in the air.

KAT is probably the poster child here.
 

lovegtm

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I'm not sure what this tells us by NBA.com does have stats on the distance players travel on defense and the speed. For the Cs, JB leads in distance per game at 1.19 (average speed = 3.90). GH is next at 1.16 (avg speed = 3.93). JT trails at 1.12 miles (speed = 3.67)
The OKC play where JB helped a half-step too far in the lane and gave up a 3 to Gallinari is instructive here. Tatum barely moved on the play, and was positioned correctly and directing JB.

If JB had helped and recovered a step out to Gallinari, no pass happens and he doesn’t move. As it was, he had to fly at Gallo at top speed, only to still give up the 3.
 

the moops

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My guess, just based on the personalities and team situations of the guys you mentioned, is that most of them except George don’t space out like this. Obviously some really smart, elite guys like LeBron will just totally take plays off, but he’s a unique situation.
My guess would be that the only guys you rarely see have complete space outs, are the defense only guys (and I am unsure how many of these guys are actually left). Paul George still carries a large offensive burden that it isn't realistic to expect any of these guys to be on 100% of the time on defense. Especially in February.
 

Smokey Joe

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Watching that compilation and seeing Tatum flying across the court to close out reminds me of how fricking old I am.Tatum is 20 years old and has energy to burn, Heywoode is 30 years old and just not going to do that on a otherwise meaningless game in mid February. I have no doubt that he is going to be locked in during the playoffs. Let’s compare 20 year old Tatum to Tatum nine (9!!) years from now. You might see him less energetic and focused then now.
 

benhogan

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LOL @Embiid. Don’t think you need a deep dive for that...I watched the rough highlights of the recent Bucks game and just kept throwing my hands in the air.

KAT is probably the poster child here.
MaMo's, two Celtic seasons, off-ball/weakside defense will be KAT-like
 

InstaFace

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I think that your entire assessment is correct. He's not killing them defensively, but he has some bigtime focus/effort deficiencies at times on D. It just is.

He's brings so much on offense that it's really not a problem. Just frustrating to watch sometimes. Fwiw, I think that he paces himself at that end. And given that he knows best how much he has in the tank (i.e. foot), I honestly don't habe a big problem with it.
Pacing oneself, to my understanding, generally looks like not choosing to run down a fast break, not getting back fast enough after a make or miss on offense, having a lower utilization rate / taking possessions off on offense, and maybe not closing out the 3rd or 4th shooter all the time.

It does not look like mental mistakes on positioning. If anything, being in the right spot in advance more often is a valuable crutch to avoid having to use athleticism and energy to cover for an error (yours or a teammate's).

Yes, mental energy has a limit too, and nobody is going at 100% for all 48 of all 82*. But neither can you make physical excuses for mental mistakes.

* Marcus Smarf would, though, if the natural consequence of going at 100% for 36 every night didn't mean he played way less than 82 every year
 

Kliq

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Interesting game for Hayward last night; one of his worst shooting nights of the season, yet he managed to finish with 21 points, 13 rebounds and 4 assists. He also made some of the biggest defensive plays of the game. I know some people in the gamethread were looking at his positive +/- and mocking it for being a poor indicator of someone's contributions because Hayward shot the ball so poorly, but on the flip side, it showed how his value can be beyond counting stats. His good defense, quick ball movement and rebounding were all important factors in the Celtics victory.
 

lovegtm

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I know I look like the "Hayward hater" for my earlier videos, but really, my primary goal is to key in on little things and make watching more enjoyable/engaging for myself and others.

So, with that said, Hayward's defense against the Clippers was really good, particularly on-ball but also off. Here's the video, with commentary. Time permitting (and it should permit, given this stupid dearth of basketball games until my Saturday morning), I'll do a similar one for all 10 guys who played in the Clippers game.

View: https://youtu.be/mkP1-qq9RdU
 

bigq

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His 2P% is at a career high of .558 which is ahead of Tatum, Brown and Walker. Additionally his FG% between 10-16 feet is also at a career high. If he is open I have no problem with him taking midrange shots.
 

lovegtm

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Must say I am getting very tired of Hayward's midrange jumpers. He takes so damn many
I'll let others decide what is an acceptable rate of success and acceptable volume. I tend to think that people discount the additional equity a good mid-range shooter gets from the option to pass, drive, and get fouled on some percentage of these plays.

Here is Hayward's shot chart. Spoiler: He's a really freaking good midrange shooter, especially when you consider that most of these looks are self-created. If anything, he probably should have the ball in his hands more with Smart playing the role of the guy spotting up around the action.

 

HomeRunBaker

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His 2P% is at a career high of .558 which is ahead of Tatum, Brown and Walker. Additionally his FG% between 10-16 feet is also at a career high. If he is open I have no problem with him taking midrange shots.
I’m confident that a year-by-year contested shot chart would support the eye test that Hayward never had nearly this many open mid-range jumpers when he was the focus of Utah’s half court offense. This stat seems to be a product of playing with Tatum/ Kemba/Jaylen.
 

RetractableRoof

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Curious what others make of the shot chart that @lovegtm just posted. The whole mid to outside on the left (until you get to the corner 3) is kinda "woah". I rarely look at those kind of charts, is this a typical distribution for players given their dominant hand (or other similar factor? - maybe the elevation off his lift on one foot is still different?). Swap the corner 3s, and I'd tell him to never shoot from the left at all. If I were designing actions for him, I'd consider checking to see if running them counter-clockwise so he was running into his hotter zones would add to his success.

Not knowing, I don't want to draw any conclusions about data I don't understand (other than what is on the surface). Is this typical of his chart for his last healthy year? Or is it function of playing more of a supporting role on this years team versus being more of a lead dog in Utah? Or... ?

Thoughts?

Edit: SSS acknowledgement of course...
 

lovegtm

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Curious what others make of the shot chart that @lovegtm just posted. The whole mid to outside on the left (until you get to the corner 3) is kinda "woah". I rarely look at those kind of charts, is this a typical distribution for players given their dominant hand (or other similar factor? - maybe the elevation off his lift on one foot is still different?). Swap the corner 3s, and I'd tell him to never shoot from the left at all. If I were designing actions for him, I'd consider checking to see if running them counter-clockwise so he was running into his hotter zones would add to his success.

Not knowing, I don't want to draw any conclusions about data I don't understand (other than what is on the surface). Is this typical of his chart for his last healthy year? Or is it function of playing more of a supporting role on this years team versus being more of a lead dog in Utah? Or... ?

Thoughts?

Edit: SSS acknowledgement of course...
The edit is the most important part here. This is a REALLY small sample.

To the extent that it's real, it's probably a function of how he gets to his spot off the dribble.
 

BaseballJones

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I want to know how he shoots off the dribble moving to his right versus moving to his left. For most right-handed shooters, it's easier to shoot off the dribble going to your left, because your body is already angled more optimally for good shooting mechanics. If you're dribbling right, you need to rotate your body mid-air in order to square your shoulders (that's a myth...they never should be "square", but rather, your shooting shoulder should be a half-step forward), and that's much harder to do. But for some players, they can still manage to shoot better going right (as a right-handed shooter).

So I'd be curious to know his data, though I think that would require going through all the game film and watching every single shot.
 

BaseballJones

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Well, well, well:
Sweet! I won't go through it all but I did watch a couple of games' worth. Interesting stuff.

One thing you'll notice quickly is that the reason he shoots well going to his right is that he's often going that way off screens when he gets in the lane.
Yep, noticed that. Also, when he goes right, he's often already square to the hoop. This is super interesting.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Agreed with the above sentiments that Hayward may not fully get his confidence back near the rim from before his injury and with teams overplaying him beyond the 3-point line combined with the numerous supporting options where defenders have to stay home, the mid-range shots he is taking are as close to free throws as you can get during play.
 

lovegtm

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Must say I am getting very tired of Hayward's midrange jumpers. He takes so damn many
Here's a video with a more coherent explanation of what I was trying to get at re "total equity" of a midranger. It's also important to remember that half-court offense is much less efficient than total offense: it's roughly around 1.00 PPP, bit higher for the best teams. Hayward's mid-rangers are already pretty good value even in a complete vacuum.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZZry6Aed3k
 

BaseballJones

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Excellent video. Really top notch.
Yep. I started a long post playing with the numbers to try to show that the midrange shot can still be an effective weapon. I had a lot put together but then gave up on it because I was way too into the weeds. Then I saw this video and was like, ok, that's about 1000x better than what I was going to post.
 

lexrageorge

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He had a player's skull hit his knee fairly hard. Not surprising that he came up gimpy from that; any player would. Seems wise to be cautious; rushing him back would be dumb. Anyway, doesn't seem like anything major.
 

NomarsFool

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Resting tonight is a good idea. It's just a real shame the Celtics will have almost nobody ready to go tonight. I'm assuming JB will be out along with Kemba.
 

128

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Any credible reports on the severity of Hayward's (latest) injury? I've seen nothing and have no clue if he might be available tomorrow against OKC or next week against Indiana and/or Milwaukee. The C's could use him.
 

Koufax

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They really need everyone back. They've played so few games together that they won't be in synch as a team come playoff time unless they get some practice regular season games under their collective belt.
 

lovegtm

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They really need everyone back. They've played so few games together that they won't be in synch as a team come playoff time unless they get some practice regular season games under their collective belt.
Yeah, this has been clear all year: they seem to get in really good grooves when they get used to certain rotations/groups of players (shocking, I know!). Then an injury will wreck all that, and it's back to square one.

On that positive note:
View: https://twitter.com/ByJayKing/status/1236747732188049409?s=20
 

Sprowl

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How good would this team be if they actually were firing on all cylinders?
We'll know when Stevens plays a lineup of Tatum-Walker-Hayward-Brown-Smart for the final thirty seconds of a playoff game.

If they can't get it done then, it's never gonna happen.
 

BaseballJones

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We'll know when Stevens plays a lineup of Tatum-Walker-Hayward-Brown-Smart for the final thirty seconds of a playoff game.

If they can't get it done then, it's never gonna happen.
Are all five of those guys actually going to play a game together?

And on topic of this thread: this team is SO much better when Hayward is on his game.
 

lovegtm

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Loved the Hayward+bench unit in the 1st quarter. They set screens to get Hayward the ball either off the wing or on that stack play Tatum uses to flash above the 3 point line. Looked really smooth with everyone in the right roles. Semi as a pick-and-pop screener was a nice add-on to it also.
 

lovegtm

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Lost in the coronavirus madness was the news that Robyn finally produced a male heir:

 

InstaFace

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ah, the future Tom Brady of Basketball.

(Brady has 3 older sisters, one of whom he says has a better arm than he does)