Gordon Hayward 2018-2019: I find your lack of faith disturbing.

NomarsFool

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So, when do we officially hit the panic button? Unfortunately, some guys just never recover from injuries to be the player they were before. He certainly can do some things out there, but a big part of his game is atrocious right now. How many times do we see Hayward drive to the basket and either get stripped, get blocked, or some other non-positive outcome?
 

nighthob

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He had summer surgery to remove the hardware from his ankle, so there's a pretty good chance that he doesn't return to full health until next year.
 

BigSoxFan

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So, when do we officially hit the panic button? Unfortunately, some guys just never recover from injuries to be the player they were before. He certainly can do some things out there, but a big part of his game is atrocious right now. How many times do we see Hayward drive to the basket and either get stripped, get blocked, or some other non-positive outcome?
For starters, I'd like to see a thread name change...
 

DrewDawg

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So, when do we officially hit the panic button?
When pretty much everyone agreed we'd know more? Late this season, possibly *after* the season?

No one thought he'd be back and what he was on January 28. And if you accept that, then you accept that it's still a work in progress. Why are we speeding up the timeline?
 

bigq

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So, when do we officially hit the panic button?
Not yet and probably not even within this season. I would say about a month into next season. He suffered a horrific injury and is still working his way back.
 

lexrageorge

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So, when do we officially hit the panic button? Unfortunately, some guys just never recover from injuries to be the player they were before. He certainly can do some things out there, but a big part of his game is atrocious right now. How many times do we see Hayward drive to the basket and either get stripped, get blocked, or some other non-positive outcome?
The medical folks all said he would need a full season of playing time to return to form. So, no panic button need be hit until next season.
 

Jimbodandy

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Those who are reminded us of the late and unexpected surgery are doing this thread a favor. The lifting, jumping, and explosive exercises that a player does to get ready for the season--he was more or less deprived of those. In fact the last time that he probably did them full bore was before last season. That shit matters. They can't allocate the same time during the season to do those programs. It's not an accident that his ability to finish by guys and over guys is limited. And it affects everything downstream too. If you don't have to hedge against driving the closeout, then challenging every shot is easy. There's no chance that he makes a leap this year. Only incremental progress is possible imo, and clearly that's not linear either.
 

Eddie Jurak

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So, when do we officially hit the panic button? Unfortunately, some guys just never recover from injuries to be the player they were before. He certainly can do some things out there, but a big part of his game is atrocious right now. How many times do we see Hayward drive to the basket and either get stripped, get blocked, or some other non-positive outcome?
If he comes out for 2019-2020 performing exactly as he is now, I'd be concerned. Not until then.
 

DrewDawg

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Don't disagree, but isn't this a strong argument for giving more of his minutes now to Brown and Smart?
Not if Hayward needs minutes in hopes of him being an important part of the rotation by the postseason.
 

mcpickl

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Don't disagree, but isn't this a strong argument for giving more of his minutes now to Brown and Smart?
No. Because if Hayward is going to get better at playing basketball, it will be by playing basketball.
 

mcpickl

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I was specifically responding to the suggestion that he wouldn't be ready until next year.
And I'm specifically responding, to be ready for next year he has to play NBA basketball. Now is the time for him to play.
 

Rustjive

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I have a pet theory - what are the chances that Hayward's performance is chiefly due to fatigue/lack of conditioning right now? He was off his feet for a long time (in April, he said 'The biggest gain I’ve made is in being able to do single leg calf raises with both legs.'). In late June he had surgery again. How much can you keep up your conditioning in the face of that? Rookies hit the rookie wall despite playing and practicing the year before, then doing draft workouts etc. Why not Hayward? All these shots he's missing, his inconsistency, that's a classic sign of fatigue. I simply can't believe the player we saw against Minnesota or against Dallas somehow got worse after playing more games.

This could be just the eternal Hayward optimist/apologist in me though. I'm very interested to see how he does after the all-star break though.
 

mostman

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I have a pet theory - what are the chances that Hayward's performance is chiefly due to fatigue/lack of conditioning right now? He was off his feet for a long time (in April, he said 'The biggest gain I’ve made is in being able to do single leg calf raises with both legs.'). In late June he had surgery again. How much can you keep up your conditioning in the face of that? Rookies hit the rookie wall despite playing and practicing the year before, then doing draft workouts etc. Why not Hayward? All these shots he's missing, his inconsistency, that's a classic sign of fatigue. I simply can't believe the player we saw against Minnesota or against Dallas somehow got worse after playing more games.

This could be just the eternal Hayward optimist/apologist in me though. I'm very interested to see how he does after the all-star break though.
If it’s conditioning, the team should know, and they should be working on it. Not playing him 26 minutes a game. You can’t gain conditioning just by playing. And it’s difficult to train hard if you are playing 26 minutes every other night.
 

Rustjive

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If it’s conditioning, the team should know, and they should be working on it. Not playing him 26 minutes a game. You can’t gain conditioning just by playing. And it’s difficult to train hard if you are playing 26 minutes every other night.
Compare to Tatum last year though - he kept his minutes even after it was very apparent he had hit the rookie wall.

 
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Jimbodandy

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I'd like to see a few of his minutes given to others, aside from Horford and Irving obviously. Brad and Danny don't seem to think so, so that's the breaks.

The benefit of him playing live minutes are real though. He can see where his limitations really are. He can work on his timing and confidence. It's not trivial, it will almost certainly add up to a more useful Hayward in the playoffs.

But hopefully we can avoid getting our hopes up too much. This is largely who he is, until he has a proper, healthy offseason on which to build a more explosive foundation.

edit: Brad was asked in post-game about giving Semi minutes in place of Hayward. I think that BJ has a press credential.
 
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luckiestman

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If you play BBall, try putting in 15 pounds weights on both legs and see how well you shoot.

He's not sure of what he can or cannot do and he doesn't have the luxury of just throwing up shots to see what sticks.

I understand, but I saw him killing shots in off season workouts. I get that offseason workouts are not game speed, but I just thought he was going to be better on wide open stuff.
 

Eddie Jurak

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His confidence is absolutely shot. There are physical issues, too, obviously, but his problems are not only physical.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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If this was remotely accurate he shouldn't be playing.
Why? The Cs have what, $80MM invested in him over the next 3 years. He'snot going to get better if he doesn't play. Plus, for better or for worse, Brad is clearly loyal to him.

I just wish Brad would stop putting him on the court in crunch time.

From this article:

According to the NBA.com stats site, the Celtics have a net rating of +1.4 when Hayward is on the floor. When he’s off the floor though this has increased to a +11.4. That’s a full 10 points per 100 possessions better when Hayward is on the bench. Hayward was moved from the starting unit to the bench on November 19. For Hayward himself, it has made no difference. The Celtics still have a net rating of +1.4 when he’s on the floor. The rest of the team though has been even better since he was moved to the bench. When Hayward sits, since November 19, the Celtics have a net rating of 13.9.
 

Ed Hillel

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Why? The Cs have what, $80MM invested in him over the next 3 years. He'snot going to get better if he doesn't play. Plus, for better or for worse, Brad is clearly loyal to him.

I just wish Brad would stop putting him on the court in crunch time.

From this article:

According to the NBA.com stats site, the Celtics have a net rating of +1.4 when Hayward is on the floor. When he’s off the floor though this has increased to a +11.4. That’s a full 10 points per 100 possessions better when Hayward is on the bench. Hayward was moved from the starting unit to the bench on November 19. For Hayward himself, it has made no difference. The Celtics still have a net rating of +1.4 when he’s on the floor. The rest of the team though has been even better since he was moved to the bench. When Hayward sits, since November 19, the Celtics have a net rating of 13.9.
Serious question, but if the main concern is working through injury, getting him back into basketball shape, and reestablishing confidence, can’t he play in the G League for the remainder of the season? This team can compete for a championship without him, especially if Brad add’s another piece this next week. If he’s blocking more consistent players, a change has to be made at some point.
 

Jimbodandy

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Serious question, but if the main concern is working through injury, getting him back into basketball shape, and reestablishing confidence, can’t he play in the G League for the remainder of the season? This team can compete for a championship without him, especially if Brad add’s another piece this next week. If he’s blocking more consistent players, a change has to be made at some point.
He doesn't need reps against suboptimal guys. He needs reps against the best.

I'd prefer 21 minutes to 26 (and think that it matters), but whatever minutes he gets in the NBA are a crapload more valuable than anything in the G league.

He's not learning the game. And the dropoff isn't like getting at bats in AAA. It's much bigger.
 

Ed Hillel

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He doesn't need reps against suboptimal guys. He needs reps against the best.

I'd prefer 21 minutes to 26 (and think that it matters), but whatever minutes he gets in the NBA are a crapload more valuable than anything in the G league.

He's not learning the game. And the dropoff isn't like getting at bats in AAA. It's much bigger.
If it’s a health issue, why does the competition matter? The G league is still full of the top 1% of basketball players in the world. I’d compare it to a long rehab assignment in baseball.

Edit - I see your belief the dropoff is bigger. Even so, if it’s a health thing it’s a health thing. And if he’s a complete zero half his nights on the court in Boston, he simply cannot stick around for too much longer for the season. The team has too much potential without him, and the team needs time to get the best rotation going before the playoffs.
 

Jimbodandy

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If it’s a health issue, why does the competition matter? The G league is still full of the top 1% of basketball players in the world. I’d compare it to a long rehab assignment in baseball.
I'm not a doctor, but it's an explosiveness issue. Let's say that he has dropped off 10-15% of his prior attack, his physical akills exploding by and over guys. That's the 15% difference that made him a borderline all star instead of a borderline starter. Few of the guys in the G league have that, or they're already on someone's NBA roster. So he's not going to gauge and fine tune that missing part of his game. He'd likely go there and put up 25 every night and learn nothing. It might help his confidence to succeed like that, but it might hurt his confidence that his team even suggests it.
 

lexrageorge

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We can argue about the benefits all day (I'm personally am skeptical). But there is absolutely zero chance that Hayward will be asked to play for the Red Claws.

He is going to be given minutes in the 2nd unit, and probably top 7-8 minutes overall until it's determined he physically cannot do it. Assuming no improvement from Hayward, those minutes would probably average closer to 20 than to 25 as the season enters the stretch run, and may very well decrease in the playoffs. But he's not getting benched entirely, nor is he being sent to Maine. The NBA doesn't work that way, especially when it comes to a max free agent that was a perennial All Star before arriving.
 

DrewDawg

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This might be encouraging if you want Brad to start adjusting his minutes. In January he played fewer minutes/game than any month this year, including October when he was on a restriction.

Oct: 24.5
Nov: 27.5
Dec: 26.4
Jan: 24.2

Not a big drop, but it is one. More noticeable is that 6 of the 8 games where he's played his fewest minutes have come since 12/31. So it appears there is an adjustment happening. And one of those other 2 games was the game they destroyed Atlanta.



He's had a weird month. January was his best shooting month by far by TS%, however he only shot 30.4% on threes, which are, for lack of a better term, more "visible". I think this is because this offense gets players open shots, so when he misses it's noticeable.

Also odd, his FT% dropped bigtime in January--he was over 90% in November/December and was at 75% in January. His rebounds and assists also fell off. So, SSS alert, but some of these things might show as fatigue issues.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Jeez, can't a guy have his irony anymore? Talk about anodyne.

edit: look, let's compromise. Find me another suitable star wars quote. "C'mon baby, hold together"? "He's no good to me dead"?
“Um, everything's under control, situation normal.”
“This isn’t the Gordon Hayward you’re looking for.”
“Help us, Carmelo Anthony, you’re my only hope.”
“I find your lack of faith disturbing.”
“What a piece of junk!”
 

lovegtm

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“Um, everything's under control, situation normal.”
“This isn’t the Gordon Hayward you’re looking for.”
“Help us, Carmelo Anthony, you’re my only hope.”
“I find your lack of faith disturbing.”
“What a piece of junk!”
$30M? We can almost buy our own All-Star for that!
 

reggiecleveland

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Why? The Cs have what, $80MM invested in him over the next 3 years. He'snot going to get better if he doesn't play. Plus, for better or for worse, Brad is clearly loyal to him.

I just wish Brad would stop putting him on the court in crunch time.
.
The idea that he has 30lbs strapped to his feet was part of what I disputed. If he was physically that bad, he would be unable to play.

The best hope for this year, is he figures out his stroke with this new, worse body and can be a valuable bench shooter.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The idea that he has 30lbs strapped to his feet was part of what I disputed. If he was physically that bad, he would be unable to play.

The best hope for this year, is he figures out his stroke with this new, worse body and can be a valuable bench shooter.
I didn't say that GH was playing like he had weights on his legs. I was trying to make the point that if a poster wanted some empathy in what GH was going through, strap on some ankle weights. You know, kind of like an analogy.
 

DrewDawg

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https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2019/02/boston-celtics-gordon-hayward-is-feeling-his-athleticism-slowly-starting-to-come-back.html

There's been a few posts here about how the second procedure Hayward had set him back. Here he is:

“I think ideally I would have been able to play five-on-five all summer, but I wasn’t able to do that,” Hayward told MassLive after the Boston Celtics win over the New York Knicks. “So I didn’t start playing five-on-five until end of September. Definitely was something I had to adjust to, and so I basically was kinda working my way back at the beginning of the season. But, it is what it is.”

The end of September is the beginning of the preseason, putting Hayward in the unenviable position of trying to learn his teammates while re-learning who he himself was at that point.
Doing the math could have predicted this uptick in athleticism. Instead of playing full-court basketball at the end of May, he began at the end of September, which is a four-month setback. Four months from the end of September is the end of January, which means Hayward is only today getting himself to where he’d hoped to be.
 

lovegtm

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https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2019/02/boston-celtics-gordon-hayward-is-feeling-his-athleticism-slowly-starting-to-come-back.html

There's been a few posts here about how the second procedure Hayward had set him back. Here he is:
As mentioned elsewhere, a good playoff run from Gordon drastically changes the Celtics leverage and options this offseason. For starters, Kyrie might re-up regardless of AD. I'm cautiously optimistic: that alley-oop last night looked qualitatively different from his other dunk attempts this year.
 

lovegtm

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I don't think we see the old Gordon until next season. That dunk last night is still far off from this guy.

That dunk on Randle at 0:25 is ridiculous. I forgot how explosive he was. It's weird though: a lot of those clips are off his right leg, and you have to think that should come back totally fine, no?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Again, I don't love game score as a metric but as shorthand it works fine. Of Hayward's top 10 game scores this season, six happened in the December through February period with last night's game against the New York Knox his tenth highest of the season. The guy is making progress, albeit in a non-linear fashion.

Interestingly, Hayward must like playing on the first calendar day of the month given that three of his top ten game scores occurred on the first of November, the first of December (30 point game vs the T-Wolves), and last night.
 

NomarsFool

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Absolutely. Earlier in the season, I felt like he was one good game out of every 10. Then, maybe one out of 5. Lately it's been one out of every 3, which means he actually is able to contribute. I think we need to see more Hayward, more Brown, and less Rozier. Gosh, Rozier's been awful the last few games. And please, someone sit Smart down to talk about appropriate shooting again. 0-8 from 3? What did he take the other night, 9 3's?
 

tbb345

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Since I’ve shit on him a lot, I think it’s only fair to post now. He looked awesome last night. Hopefully it’s a harbinger of things to come.

And Nomar, At Least last night, Smart was wife fucking open on at least 6 of those 3’s. Smart has to take those
 

Koufax

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I didn't think GH was that special last night other than that his shots were falling. Admittedly I don't fully understand his contributions on the defensive side of the ball, but I didn't see any aggressive moves to the basket or other displays of great athleticism that seem to have been his calling card before the injury. Granted, he has a good understanding of the game and plays it well, but if every game was like last night's, I don't think he's a max player.