Gordon Hayward 2018-2019: I find your lack of faith disturbing.

bosox79

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Do you believe in a players improved contract year performance? If so, why wouldn’t you believe in a players improved shooting in a contract year? There are even (banned) supplements that improve ones hand/eye coordination.

We’re seeing it this year with Tobias, D’Angelo Russell, Bigdanovich in Indy, Derrick Rose, MaMo, and Rudy Gay with a quick look just this year alone.
So what about Terry Rozier? Pretty sure it's variance.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Gordon’s last year in Utah was his best 3-pt shooting year since the 2012-13 season. Prior to his 39.8% in a contract year he shot 34.9, 36.4, and 30.4.....it is very dangerous to base projections off the top end outlier when it occurred in a contract year. It’s the same way teams shouldn’t project MaMo’s future shooting based off this season.
OK, so you made me look it up. Let's throw out his first year as an acclimation year.

In 2014-15, GH shot 32.4% on 111 open 3Ps and 40.8% on 191 wide open 3Ps.

In 2015-16, GH shot 32.4% on 145 open 3Ps and 38.3% on wide open 230 3Ps.

The outlier number appears to be the 46.3% he shot on open 3Ps in 2016-17. But if we throw that nimber out and say that he's going to shoot 38% on wide open 3Ps and 32.4% on open 3Ps, without doing the actual math, he's (a) going to be shooting around 37% on 3Ps because he's now getting so many wide open ones and (b) his numbers are going to go up.

GH's wide open #s have been consistent. And if he has managed to improve his shot from his baseline numbers and can get his wide-open % to increase a bit, well it's going to be fun to watch.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Do you believe in a players improved contract year performance? If so, why wouldn’t you believe in a players improved shooting in a contract year? There are even (banned) supplements that improve ones hand/eye coordination.

We’re seeing it this year with Tobias, D’Angelo Russell, Bigdanovich in Indy, Derrick Rose, MaMo, and Rudy Gay with a quick look just this year alone.
While its logical that players in their contract year do change the way they play, I too find it hard to believe that they can improve their deep shooting simply because they want to be more attractive to potential suitors. If you are right, how is that Marcus Smart has improved so much despite getting the security of a long-term deal? He is paid for - so is it possible that he has just improved as a result of being in the league, working in a familiar system and learning how to shoot more efficiently?

As bosox said, it may be simple variance or perhaps, players in general now realize that three point shooting is integral to how the league works and are collectively working on it more than ever before, contract year or not. Or maybe there is some other reason or a bit of all of the above.

In short, we simply don't have enough data to say that shooting improvements are the result of a "contract year" "supplements" or because they watched some cool Pure Sweat Basketball videos and absorbed everything instantly.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This
Unless HRB wants to explain KD and Kemba and Klay and many others that are shooting worse. Some players will perform better in contract years and some will perform worse.
I didn't fully clarify my position. Yes, variance does appear to be greater in a players contract year which is why I wouldn't ever base future projections (both high and low) based on this one unusual season for the player which isn't going to occur again until they hit the end of their next contract. There is a decent chance that this season is an outlier so why ignore so much additional data we have on the player?
 
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bosox79

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I didn't fully clarify my position. Yes, variance does appear to be greater in a players contract year which is why I wouldn't ever base future projections (both high and low) based on this one unusual season for the player which isn't going to occur again until they hit the end of their next contract. There is a decent chance that this season is an outlier so why ignore so much additional data we have on the player?
No one would but this isn't what you said.
 

Jimbodandy

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No one would but this isn't what you said.
Nor is it what anyone else is saying. It's variance, not contract year variance. Just plain old variance.

Edit: of course some guys force more bad shots probably, and maybe some focus on taking better shots. But this level of variance in non contract years is also to be expected.
 

boca

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Celtics coach Brad Stevens says on @ZoandBertrand that Gordon Hayward twisted his right ankle in a workout with Semi Ojeleye yesterday. He expects him to be questionable vs. Bucks.

 

HowBoutDemSox

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Celtics coach Brad Stevens says on @ZoandBertrand that Gordon Hayward twisted his right ankle in a workout with Semi Ojeleye yesterday. He expects him to be questionable vs. Bucks.

I guess he should have just taken a vacation during the break.
 

radsoxfan

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I said that link was unrelated to his injury or play, but I was wrong.

She should have just let him keep playing video games all break.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Nor is it what anyone else is saying. It's variance, not contract year variance. Just plain old variance.

Edit: of course some guys force more bad shots probably, and maybe some focus on taking better shots. But this level of variance in non contract years is also to be expected.
I interpreted WBCD’s post as doing just that in basing projections off that final year. If he was not I apologize. We need the games to start up again soon.
 

ifmanis5

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Hayward is struggling lately, basically refusing to shoot.
Boston Sports Info‏ @bostonsportsinf 20m20 minutes ago
NBA players, since the All-Star break, with Minutes played ≥ 98 Points ≤ 20
Gordon Hayward
Rodney Hood
END OF LIST

Many compare Hayward's injury to Paul George but the recovery for Hayward has been much slower. Hayward's injury date was Oct 17, 2017. In his first year back (2018-2019) he is averaging about 26 mins a game and 10.8 ppg. George's injury date was Aug 1, 2014 and in his first year back (2015-2016) he averaged about 35 mins a game and 23.1 ppg. George had about 2 more months to rehab but his numbers were much better.
PG: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/georgpa01.html
GH: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01.html
 

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I think last night was more a function of the Brad wanting to have Gordon facilitate. I think it’s a direct result of scaling back Rozier’s responsibilities, and thy are willing to sacrifice some offense to get Gordo as many reps in that role as possible before the playoffs.
 

Jimbodandy

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I think last night was more a function of the Brad wanting to have Gordon facilitate. I think it’s a direct result of scaling back Rozier’s responsibilities, and thy are willing to sacrifice some offense to get Gordo as many reps in that role as possible before the playoffs.
I think you're right. To a lesser extent Kyrie was also hyper focused on setting guys up. Still, GH needs to attempt more. He must have a floater in that bag of tricks. He gets to 5' and tries to force a kickout that isn't there way too often.
 

ifmanis5

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I think you're right. To a lesser extent Kyrie was also hyper focused on setting guys up. Still, GH needs to attempt more. He must have a floater in that bag of tricks. He gets to 5' and tries to force a kickout that isn't there way too often.
Very true, he looks like Rondo out there at times.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Many compare Hayward's injury to Paul George but the recovery for Hayward has been much slower. Hayward's injury date was Oct 17, 2017. In his first year back (2018-2019) he is averaging about 26 mins a game and 10.8 ppg. George's injury date was Aug 1, 2014 and in his first year back (2015-2016) he averaged about 35 mins a game and 23.1 ppg. George had about 2 more months to rehab but his numbers were much better.
PG: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/georgpa01.html
GH: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01.html
I don't like this comparison between players numbers as we are failing to factor in the change in Hayward's role which was going to affect his numbers last year even if healthy whereas George's was pretty much the same. George was also not the same athlete his first full year back either.
 

radsoxfan

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I don't like this comparison between players numbers as we are failing to factor in the change in Hayward's role which was going to affect his numbers last year even if healthy whereas George's was pretty much the same. George was also not the same athlete his first full year back either.

I also don't like the comparison... though mostly because their injuries were so drastically different as to make comparing their recoveries close to irrelevant.

If we are going to use George, people may as well just use every NBA player with a major year-long season ending injury. At least in that case people would realize the limitations of the comparison.
 

NomarsFool

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Been very disappointing since the ASB. He was playing really well leading up into the break, and now I feel like we have gone back 2 months in time.
 

NomarsFool

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I believe he sprained his ankle over the break
Yes I know. He has been playing, though, so I assume it's not a physical impediment to him. Total armchair psychology here, but it seems like that injury got in his head again and took away his fire.
 

NomarsFool

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Interesting note from that article, two of the most recent additions to the team, both seem to be best friends with Tatum.
 

DrewDawg

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Also:

During his most discouraging days, Hayward recalls what Paul George confided to him: It took two full years before he could play freely, without residue of his own catastrophic open tibia fracture from 2014.

LOL at this:

"It didn't really bother me. Kyrie called me later that night and apologized. I knew it was in the moment."
Kyrie apologizing to everyone.
 
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DrewDawg

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He's experiencing back pain too? That would explain why his shot is so flat on bad nights.
In a way, I see this as a positive:

Hayward's difficulties were compounded by back woes stemming from atrophied muscles that had not been fired for nearly a year. He received injections to ease the pain, but it further limited his mobility -- and further delayed his progress.
That *will* improve. Maybe next season obviously, but that should come back.
 

TripleOT

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The Utah clips show a Hayward that at times looks like he's springing off a trampoline when taking the ball to the rim. His season, he's plodding at best. You need a strong core to make vicious forays to the rim over big, tall, athletic defenders. This season, he's had to nudge his way, with predictable results - finishing off .625% at the rim this year with 70% assisted, to .691% at the rim his last season with the Jazz, with only 60% assisted. His non-layup two point shooting percentage is up a bit, which makes sense with all the room out there on the court now that he's not the first option. Back issues would explain the dip from three, as would be adjusting to being a bench player. The guy has a great shooting stroke.

Watching him in person as a fan is painful. Almost as bad as the lack of his former physical tools is his lack of confidence. I did see him light up the Wolves in Boston, and he was scintillating - decisive, confident, intelligent play where he imposed his will on the game. If he could get within 90% of that player by the playoffs, the Celtics could run deep.
 

BigSoxFan

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The Utah clips show a Hayward that at times looks like he's springing off a trampoline when taking the ball to the rim. His season, he's plodding at best. You need a strong core to make vicious forays to the rim over big, tall, athletic defenders. This season, he's had to nudge his way, with predictable results - finishing off .625% at the rim this year with 70% assisted, to .691% at the rim his last season with the Jazz, with only 60% assisted. His non-layup two point shooting percentage is up a bit, which makes sense with all the room out there on the court now that he's not the first option. Back issues would explain the dip from three, as would be adjusting to being a bench player. The guy has a great shooting stroke.

Watching him in person as a fan is painful. Almost as bad as the lack of his former physical tools is his lack of confidence. I did see him light up the Wolves in Boston, and he was scintillating - decisive, confident, intelligent play where he imposed his will on the game. If he could get within 90% of that player by the playoffs, the Celtics could run deep.
Yup. Hayward has to be the most frustrated of us all. Must be tough when you're back but not really back. Hopefully the 2 year recovery time that George mentioned is real and Hayward starts seeing some real improvement by next fall. If the Celtics are getting a 90-95% Hayward next year, the outlook changes quite a bit no matter what happens with Kyrie.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Yup. Hayward has to be the most frustrated of us all. Must be tough when you're back but not really back. Hopefully the 2 year recovery time that George mentioned is real and Hayward starts seeing some real improvement by next fall. If the Celtics are getting a 90-95% Hayward next year, the outlook changes quite a bit no matter what happens with Kyrie.
Did you say George said a two year recovery time? Or was it ~two hours from when you posted this?
 

Eddie Jurak

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I would be careful about mapping Hayward's recovery right onto George's. For one thing, players are different. For another, George's injury was less severe. For a third, George didn't need a second surgery 3-4 months before training camp of his first full year back.

I think there is plenty of reason to be optimistic about Hayward continuing to improve, and I'd expect a big jump from the end of this season to next because he'll finally have the benefit of a full offseason, though.
 

Strike4

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At this point it's probably a lot about consistency too...there will be more games like last night's but there will still be clunkers and streaks of clunkers that will make us all forget about the gems until the next one.
 

DrewDawg

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I said this in the game thread--if Hayward is having a good night, the ball is moving, he's being aggressive and that seems to lead to 2 big things:

1--Rozier doesn't need to create as much offense.

2--Teams paying more attention to Hayward gives JB more lanes to drive.
 

bosox79

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He looks back to pre sprain levels. I hope he can continue to build on it because if you look at his game logs, the good games come in stretches of 3-4 and then he disappears again.
 

TripleOT

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15 points on 8 shots last night for Gordon. Trending upward and it puts this team on another level if he’s consistently good.
He was not hesitant at all. Looked great on the catch and shoot three in the right corner over Caruso. Right to left crossover left handed layup, also on Caruso. Nice right elbow iso rise up jumper in the bigger, slower Wagner's face.
 

benhogan

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He looks back to pre sprain levels. I hope he can continue to build on it because if you look at his game logs, the good games come in stretches of 3-4 and then he disappears again.
pardon my Captain Obvious moment here BUT
Brad needs to get the ball into Gordon's hands more (and Al's), especially when Kyrie is off the floor. I've really soured on MaMo's pound n chuck game (as well as Rozier).

So I made the comment, in the game thread, that Gordon was passive last night in the middle of Q3. It annoyed a few folks but Hayward at that point had taken 4 shots (tied for least), with no assists and no rebounds. I think we can all agree that Gordon needs to be more involved.
So for those who were annoyed, who is that on? Gordon? or does Brad tell MaMo/Rozier to move the ball*?

*Brad is pairing down MaMo/Rozier minutes
 

Van Everyman

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pardon my Captain Obvious moment here BUT
Brad needs to get the ball into Gordon's hands more (and Al's), especially when Kyrie is off the floor. I've really soured on MaMo's pound n chuck game (as well as Rozier).

So I made the comment, in the game thread, that Gordon was passive last night in the middle of Q3. It annoyed a few folks but Hayward at that point had taken 4 shots (tied for least), with no assists and no rebounds. I think we can all agree that Gordon needs to be more involved.
So for those who were annoyed, who is that on? Gordon? or does Brad tell MaMo/Rozier to move the ball*?

*Brad is pairing down MaMo/Rozier minutes
I wasn’t annoyed – it was just that the timing of the post was right after he’d driven to the hoop pretty hard and put up (made?) an open three. Admittedly, I didn’t know he had taken so few shots at that point.

Generally, I think he looks really good when he gets the ball right now. Does he need to take it inside more? Yes. But that’s more decision making and, yes, maybe design than inability.
 

teddykgb

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I thought he looked considerably quicker against the Warrior than he has the last few nights. He’s got enough tools to score even without the quickness if he’s more aggressive but the GSW game Hayward is more like the player he was in Utah. We just may have to accept he’s only going to show in flashes this year and hope an offseason gets him that free and quick regularly.

It wasn’t just speed and explosion, everything was quicker and more purposeful. So much less of that slow pump fake and indecisive drive waiting for an option to present itself
 

lovegtm

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So I made the comment, in the game thread, that Gordon was passive last night in the middle of Q3. It annoyed a few folks but Hayward at that point had taken 4 shots (tied for least), with no assists and no rebounds. I think we can all agree that Gordon needs to be more involved.
So for those who were annoyed, who is that on? Gordon? or does Brad tell MaMo/Rozier to move the ball*?
Brad. Gordon has been doing his part (except for the sprain games), in terms of acting decisively and aggressively when he gets the ball. The problem is that they haven't re-jiggered the offense to take advantage of this new and (dare I say?) operational battle station.

I get it--they felt like they put too much pressure on Gordon early in the year, and don't want to mess that up again. But it's time for this baby bird to leave the nest.
 

djbayko

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I thought he looked considerably quicker against the Warrior than he has the last few nights. He’s got enough tools to score even without the quickness if he’s more aggressive but the GSW game Hayward is more like the player he was in Utah. We just may have to accept he’s only going to show in flashes this year and hope an offseason gets him that free and quick regularly.

It wasn’t just speed and explosion, everything was quicker and more purposeful. So much less of that slow pump fake and indecisive drive waiting for an option to present itself
He’s still glued to the floor relative to what he was in Utah. The GSW game and others are him learning how to contribute with his limited athleticism (while having gained some of it back). I’m not trying to be a downer. That bodes very well for the future.
 
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Montana Fan

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I get it--they felt like they put too much pressure on Gordon early in the year, and don't want to mess that up again. But it's time for this baby bird to leave the nest.
Not quite time for the bird to leave the nest unless by that you mean Brad needs to move him to the starting lineup. Otherwise, continue progressing over the next 15 regular season games and let the little eaglet fly for real come playoffs.
 

TripleOT

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The Celtics average 90 shots a game. GH gets only 8.8 shots, sixth most, after

Kyrie's 17.9 18.3 last season
Tatum's 13.2 10.4
Morris, 11.2 11.3
Jaylen 10.8 11.5
AL 10.3 10.5
GH 8.8

Rozier 8.4 10
Smart 6.9 9.5

Hayward is averaging 11.3 shots per game on the road trip. I'd expect him to get that many shots per game the rest of the season.
 

TripleOT

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He’s still glued to the floor relative to what he was in Utah. The GSW game and others are him learning how to contribute with his limited athleticism (while gaining some of it back). I’m not trying to be a downer. That bodes very well for the future.
He's not looking like he's jumping off a trampoline, but he's a lot springier than the glued to the floor games we've seen often this season. Since he doesn't have to be the best player on his team, like in Utah, he doesn't need a ton of spring to make plays. All he has to do is be decisive.

Here is how he scored against LA, with not a ton of athleticism, but like how a smart, decisive veteran scores.

Open layup when sealing his positioned under the hoop, easy catch and lay in from a nice AL pass off a mid-post.
Iso drive from top right to the paint, and and a nice dip in, then fade away 12 footer.
Run out corner three off a Brown drive and kick.
Iso right to left crossover drive from the left top, with a left handed finish.
Splashed an 18 foot elbow jumper in a taller player's face after using a high pick, with fiddle and diddle turn around dribbling.
Catch and shoot baseline 18 footer off an in bound pass, using a sharp cut to get free.
 

DrewDawg

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Also, his TS% since start of January is .607, which is on par with what Irving has done this season.
 
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lovegtm

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Also, his TS% since start of January is .607, which is on par with what Irving has done this season.
And even though the latest % is unsustainable, there’s something real here. He was clanking shots early in the year, missing really badly. Now it looks like his legs are under him.

Gordon Hayward without former explosion but with a knockdown jumper is still a really good player.
 

Red Averages

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And even though the latest % is unsustainable, there’s something real here. He was clanking shots early in the year, missing really badly. Now it looks like his legs are under him.

Gordon Hayward without former explosion but with a knockdown jumper is still a really good player.
From the Jackie Mac article on ESPN, he also had back problems earlier in the year, so we should think this improvement is more likely in the future as well.

Would expect as Morris and Rozier's minutes come down that Hayward and Brown's shots will increase.

As mentioned a few times, the lineups where GH is the point, when Kyrie sits, are really interesting. Allows them to go big and defensive, with at least 3 good offensive options (Hayward, Brown, Tatum).
 

lovegtm

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From the Jackie Mac article on ESPN, he also had back problems earlier in the year, so we should think this improvement is more likely in the future as well.
...
As mentioned a few times, the lineups where GH is the point, when Kyrie sits, are really interesting. Allows them to go big and defensive, with at least 3 good offensive options (Hayward, Brown, Tatum).
Regarding his back, I’m guessing that’s a big reason his shot was so off, even when he was healed. He’s no Steph, but he looked really out of sorts shooting.

Re the big lineups: Brad Stevens has forgotten more about basketball than I’ve ever known, so I’m optimistic that we’ll see those massive lineups come playoff time. The thing is though, Kyrie is going to be playing 37-40 minutes a night, which doesn’t leave much time. I suppose those 10 mins/night can swing a series if we’re dominating them though.