Gone but not forgotten - Dombrowski's Dealings.

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Margot now has 7 HRs in his last 16 games. In that time, he is slashing .328/.333/.716 in 69 PA. He now has 12 HRs and an ISO of .171 to go along with 11sb, albeit with 5 cs. Not that I regret the deal, but Margot is going to be really, really good. Up to .272/.309/.443 for the year as a 22 year old in SD. Granted he is hitting .336/.380/.559 at home in 166 PA, .217/.246/.343 on the road in 186.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Margot now has 7 HRs in his last 16 games. In that time, he is slashing .328/.333/.716 in 69 PA. He now has 12 HRs and an ISO of .171 to go along with 11sb, albeit with 5 cs. Not that I regret the deal, but Margot is going to be really, really good. Up to .272/.309/.443 for the year as a 22 year old in SD. Granted he is hitting .336/.380/.559 at home in 166 PA, .217/.246/.343 on the road in 186.
I don't think anyone suggested he wouldn't be a good player .. he was just unlikely to be a better player than JBJ .. which made him surplus to requirements.

And , IIRC most of the bitching about the trade was the other guys that were included. And the jury is certainly still out on that.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't think anyone suggested he wouldn't be a good player .. he was just unlikely to be a better player than JBJ .. which made him surplus to requirements.

And , IIRC most of the bitching about the trade was the other guys that were included. And the jury is certainly still out on that.
I think he has a chance to be better than JBJ. His age 20 season, Margot was injured early in the year and it seemed to rob him of the power he showed in 2014. Last year he didn't hit for all that much power either but again, he was 21 and in AAA. I always thought he'd adept quickly to the majors because of his strike zone judgement as well, although his strikeouts have increased a bit. He was ranked in the top 25 prospects by BA, BP, MLB.Com and others coming into the year so I guess he did get some love. He was in the 50s going into 2016, but BP had him at 14.

Logan Allen is showing some promise but he's struggled since being promoted to A+. Only 20 years old though. As mentioned above, Guerra is all but done and Asauje is Brock Holt, which has value but isn't missed. It's basically going to come down to Kimbrel for Margot.
 
Logan Allen is showing some promise but he's struggled since being promoted to A+. Only 20 years old though. As mentioned above, Guerra is all but done and Asauje is Brock Holt, which has value but isn't missed. It's basically going to come down to Kimbrel for Margot.
While I don't disagree that Margot is likely going to be the main value traded, Brock Holt has provided around $30m of surplus value to the Red Sox (per Fangraphs). If Asauje does the same for San Diego, and I think a Holt-like path looks a reasonable possibility at this point, that's the kind of value that adds up.

$30m+ of surplus value would require Kimbrel to be worth about $70m over his 3 years with the Sox. Would the Red Sox have given Kimbrel 3yrs/$70m if they'd signed him as a free agent instead of trading for him? Maybe, I don't know. They obviously really liked him. But it was a couple of years ago, and recent elite-level closer contracts (Chapman, Jansen, Melancon) have all been at significantly lower AAVs than that. I think it's pretty clear that if they had it would've elicited a "Woah!" reaction.

FWIW, Fangraphs currently pegs Kimbrel as having been worth about $32m so far, so he's outperforming his contract, and may even generate $30m of surplus value by the end. But that's not a sure thing by any means.

Now surplus value doesn't tell the whole story, obviously. There are reasons to value what Kimbrel is doing above the level that Fangraphs is allocating to him. Their analysis doesn't include value added in the post-season, and that could be considerable (evidence from the Chapman trade to the Cubs last year suggests that they, at least, put huge value on having an elite closer purely for the post-season). The Sox may use a different replacement level, or non-linear valuation of wins. But it does provide a framework to think about the value of players in an internally-consistent way, and within that framework it's clearly possible at this point that the Sox "lose" this trade even if you exclude the value that Margot generates. Which is probably going to be a healthy amount.
 

Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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Chris Sale might win the Cy Young and the Red Sox kept the best 3B out of the deal, but Michael Kopech has 54 K and 7 BB over his past 41 IP covering 6 starts.
 

kenneycb

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Dec 2, 2006
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Tuukka's refugee camp
I posted it in the Following Former Red Sox thread but Sale was more or less putting up the same numbers as Sale, only in MLB.
 

Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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Did I miss the Mel that every post in this thread supposed to be negative? Yeah, he's excelling in AA, which is what he's supposed to be doing this year. Having Sale is awesome. I'm not criticizing the trade by noting that Kopech is doing well.
 

kenneycb

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Dec 2, 2006
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Tuukka's refugee camp
That is awfully presumptuous and not true at all. I know who he is and all but this forum and thread is about the extent to which I actually follow him.
 

grimshaw

the new rudy
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Bumping this to update and because this forum is dead. The Sox have "won" the Carson Smith and Abad trades as neither players moved contributed anything and are extremely unlikely to.

From the Kimbrel deal.
Logan Allen - Had a really strong season split between low and high A as a starter. He's gotten whacked around in AA so far, but is still only 20. He didn't get much play, but the Padres may have stolen one here.

Javier Guerra - He was overmatched last year in High A with 159 k's in 481 at bats. He got promoted anyhow this year and has done well so far. He's a shortstop though so doesn't need to hit much.

Carlos Asuaje - The everyday 2b in San Diego. This may be his only year as a starter since he isn't much of a hitter and is already 26. They haven't even tried him elsewhere either.

Manuel Margot - Had a solid 2 fWAR season last year but has really struggled this year so far .146/226/.229.

Looks like a win win.

Moved in the Aaron Hill deal
Wendall Rijo - in AA as a 22 year old. Still not much of a hitter but plays good D. Could be a utility guy.

Aaron Wilkerson - Made his MLB debut last year in Milwaukee for 1 inning but hasn't pitched yet this year. The Brewers clearly win this trade. Yes I'm being sarcastic.

Moved in the Ziegler deal
Jose Almonte - Hasn't pitched yet this year. Was wild in high A, but had a good k-rate. Still only 22.

Luis Alejandro Basabe - Didn't hit much last year. Repeating high A and off to a good start. Won't be 22 until August.

Still a few years from evaluating this trade

Moved straight up for Pomeranz
Anderson Espinoza - Probably out for this season due to Tommy John in late 2016. Just turned 20 in March.

Moved in the Chris Sale deal. Arguably the most fascinating trade in team history. All 5 players involved could be contributors.

Yoan Moncada
- Has positive value so far with the White Sox. A wRC+ of 104 as a 2b as well as being an impact baserunner. 39% k-rate so far this year.

Michael Kopech - Knocking on the door. 3 good starts in AAA last year, and 3 good ones this year with a lower bb/rate then he had in AA.

Victor Diaz - Injured. Barely pitched last year.

Luis Alexander Basabe - almost the exact same production last year as his bro and is off to the same hot start. They appear to share a brain.

Moved in the Thornburg deal (Shaw was included), Hard to imagine the Sox winning this one, though if he is the exception to the rule of recovery and they don't need to make a reliever trade at the deadline that helps close the gap.

Josh Pennington - Was decent as a reliever last year and is age appropriate in high A.

Mauricio Dubon - Didn't hit much last year, though he could probably contribute if there were an injury or two.

Acquired for Clay Buchholz
Josh Tobias - Struggled in Portland and is repeating this year. Looks like an organizational guy unless he figures it out this year.

They got Justin Haley back and he is in AAA. Could be up at some point if there are multiple injuries.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Moncada had a pretty big week and is now slashing .244/.347/.524 with 5HRs and 4Sbs. Still striking out a ton, though.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Luis Alexander Basabe is having a great season so far in A+, although he is repeating the level.

.265/.365/.503 in 212 PA, 28bb/55k. 11 doubles, 4 triples, 8 HRs. On the flip side, he has 6 sb and has been caught 8 times.

Luis Alejandro Basabe is having a great year too, although it seems more lucky than anything else, hitting .348/.426/.440 in 162 PA.
 

judyb

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Jul 18, 2005
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I still wish I knew what their teammates called them when they were teammates so they'd know which Luis Al Basabe they were talking to. I also hope they get to be teammates again someday, just so that becomes an issue again.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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I still wish I knew what their teammates called them when they were teammates so they'd know which Luis Al Basabe they were talking to. I also hope they get to be teammates again someday, just so that becomes an issue again.
Probably Alex and Andres.
 

grimshaw

the new rudy
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May 16, 2007
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DD wouldn't include Devers in any deal for Chris Sale, so I think it's fun to look at the two side by side since they are at virtually the same experience level (503 to 501 PA into their respective careers).

Moncada .231/.318/.405 wRC+98. 34.7% k rate and 10.8% bb rate
Devers .256/.310/.440 wRC+ 94. 25.2% k rate and 7.2% bb rate.

Yoan has been more consistent at the plate though he has regressed slightly but has the 2nd most errors at 2b. By defensive WAR he has been far more valuable than Devers, but it's too small a sample to read much into it.

Devers obviously has had major struggles this season after looking like a budding star last year and also has had issues in the field leading 3b in errors.

Most notable to me is that Devers is almost 1 and a half years younger than Moncada who just turned 23.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Manuel Margot's last 27 games: 96 PA, .345/.427/.524 with 12bb/14k. Brings his season totals to a more respectable .250/.312/.380 with plus defense.

Luis Alexander Basabe was recently promoted to AA after hitting .266/.370/.502 in 245 PA at the A+ level. He had 34bb/64k.
In his first 4 games in AA, he's slashing .250/.368/.250 in 19 PA with 3bb/4k. He's still just 21 years old, which is about a year head of time for legit prospects.

Moncada has been pretty awful of late: 45 games, 191 PA, .205/.262/.330 on a .294 BAbip. 13bb/64k.

Kopech has had a pretty rough go of it in AAA. A 5.08 era in 67.1 ip with 88k/46bb. That's a K rate of 29.0% and a BB rate of 15.2%.
 

grimshaw

the new rudy
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Moncada now has 13 errors at 2b which is even a poor number for a full season at that position. He has 4 more than the next guy.
 

jon abbey

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That seems quite low for a strong performer at an (admittedly low) minor league level. How do you turn 1.5m into a better prospect than what you just gave away? Are international signings now that dependent on hoarding cash?
It doesn't look like they've spent that much so far, so they could be going after Victor Victor Mesa once he is declared eligible by MLB.
 

grimshaw

the new rudy
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Ya, I doubt they would just give a prospect away unless they saw someone they really liked and had a realistic shot at him.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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That seems quite low for a strong performer at an (admittedly low) minor league level. How do you turn 1.5m into a better prospect than what you just gave away? Are international signings now that dependent on hoarding cash?
I dunno. Cedrola hits for absolutely no power and profiles as a 4th OF at best. They could definitely get someone with more upside, though a much lower ceiling too.
 

Cuzittt

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Nov 20, 2001
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That seems quite low for a strong performer at an (admittedly low) minor league level. How do you turn 1.5m into a better prospect than what you just gave away? Are international signings now that dependent on hoarding cash?
Given that each team is hard-capped*, the ability to sign multiple blue Chip prospects is diminished. Trading for more money from a team that is under sanction$ is one way to get more bang for your buck.

* Much like the draft, the IFA hard cap is both hard and squisshy. Specifically, any IFA signing of $10k or less does not count towards the bonus pool. Which is how the Red Sox were able to sign 70 players last year. However, for any "real" prospects, the Sox can't spend more than $4.9 million without getting more pool money.

$ Although we are now in the second year of the new system, the sanctions from the last system are still in place for some teams. Specifically, in the previous system, if a team blew past their pool, they were sanctioned with two years where the top bonus allowed to be given out was 300k.

The Reds have a nominal bonus pool of over $6million. However, they are in the 300k jackpot. So, their ability to spend to their figure is nearly impossible.

Thus, a win win situation. The Reds get Cedrola (who they think is a prospect in theory worth more than 300k on the international market) and the Red Sox flip a player they don't see as essential for a new shiny toy. And get a win for scouting and development (Cedrola was signed for $35k).

Next year, the sanctions from the previous system will no longer be around. So, I expect the trading of IFA pool money will be considerably less.