The number of head coaches who have poor rosters early in their careers is considerably high because otherwise they usually wouldn't be hired. I don't think you can separate that out from anyone's performance, especially after 4 games.
Goats, Week 4 at San Francisco
- Thread starter Eddie Jurak
- Start date
I mean what are people expecting with Mayo? Perosnally i feel like Mayo is without a doubt in over his head as head coach, would be difficult enough with a good team for a noob coach to figure it out, but with this dumpster fire i feel like Mayo might do future damage to his career for taking this job. This Dynamic is also a large reason why i think many potential offensive coaches passed on this job because they knew what a pieced together mess the coaching staff was here.
Right I should have been clearer -- I guess what I meant was the playcall / main option on that play.
The line couldn't hold up 0.5 seconds longer. And anyway, what was the percentage on that downfield throw into double coverage?
And I don't know how to diagram plays, and I don't have access to All 22, so others who know actual things should feel free to tell me I'm wrong, and sorry for the blurriness of the 2nd image during this play. That said, I'm not impressed by what I'm seeing here:
- Look at the wide open top of the field. Bad spacing.
- #4 is Gibson. The Niners are dropped back in a zone and he's about to come uncovered across the middle. Brissett ignores him.
- Look at the blurry screengrab. 3 recievers are all bunched together in the middle of the field. Why? Better spacing would have given Brissett more options, right?
Again, just one play of many, even if he hits it they almost certainly lose. But it feels emblematic.
Lol, them trying to put the blame on the OC already? That and the Zolak comments on Mayo, plus all the stuff in the press comments..... Jerod Mayo gives me "What if Doc Rivers was much worse as an in-game coach"
They are crossers, they aren't really bunched, the point of the play is to make the LB make a decision. If he holds you throw to Henry (1st guy) who will be open, if he jumps Henry you throw to (Osborne I think?) who is moving into that space. If both LBs drop the back will be running into open space (he is).
The reason Jacoby doesn't wait for Gibson is Gibson got out a little late, and there is a free rusher coming up the middle off the stunt. If Jacoby wants to go to Gibson he needs to turn, plant and then get it over the unblocked DE. He knows he doesn't have time, and He thinks he can make the hole shot to POlk.... and he did. Polk was either inches from a big play, or made the big play depending how you interpret the replay.
That's a decent play design with 3 underneath options and 1 deep option, and the decision isn't that bad, the throw was pretty good, catch was pretty good. DB made a nice play but really it all came down to a few inches.
Edit- of all the plays to be upset about, I really don't get being upset about this one, they gave their QB a variety of options, and he made a nice one, they were just off by inches on staying inbounds. If he throws it to Henry and he drops it... is that a bad play? Or if Gibson takes the dump off and gets stopped inches short.....
I think you are evaluating based on outcome instead of the actual call.
It's definitely possible, and this is the problem with analysis of one individual play.
But I maintain a low percentage, downfield throw to the sideline that took time to develop and needed a perfect throw and perfect catch was a bad playcall and decision, even if he almost hit it. Throw that on 3rd down, not a do or die 4th down.
Edit: And to be clear, if Gibson gets the dump off and comes up inches short, or Henry drops a perfect pass, that's clearly a different scenario -- both of those would have been high percentage options that would have made sense with a patchwork offensive line and a QB who struggles to hit downfield throws.
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I would guess it's the 3rd or 4th read, the real objective of that route is to get the safety out of the middle and clear out the left side for the crossers to run into, can't run 4 short routes very easily
I joked about it not because I think it’s funny that it actually happened that way but because Kraft thinks it’s to his credit to perpetuate the story. Like someone not so bewilderingly arrogant would realize it’s a ridiculous thing to say about yourself unless you believe that everyone believes that your football gut is so impeccable you can run your franchise that way.
Now if I was an 80 yo billionaire with all those Super Bowl rings I might be even more arrogant, but I’d expect people to still laugh when I said dumb things.
I'm with the people who think we need more actual on field talent to properly evaluate. AVP doesn't seem like the guy -- he's simply never shown himself to be a creative offensive mind. You want your OC to be able to at least scheme a few plays up, and AVP seems more like a chef that's following other people's recipes rather than making some stuff up on his own. But I'm willing to wait until this team has even average NFL talent before making the evaluation.
I'm starting to think drafting Maye was the mistake. This team needs draft picks in volume given the quality of the roster and a functioning offensive line. No quarterback put into the current situation is being put in a position to succeed. They needed to build out the team around the quarterback before they drafted one. Maybe Maye turns out to be great, or maybe Maye is the next Sam Darnold -- a potentially decent quarterback if surrounded by competent players and coaching, but doomed to be a disappointment otherwise.
My guess is it's far, far likelier he's the latter.
Hopefully Wolf starts to hit on some of these. Polk, for as good as his hands look, just doesn't seem to be able to get separation against man coverage. Baker can't get on the field. Douglas can't get any playing time because the offensive line makes playing 11 personnel pretty perilous. What's the point of drafting these wide receivers if the line is so awful you can't even get 3 WRs on the field at the same time?
Edit: Well, turns out I'm just factually incorrect. The Patriots are in 11 just a bit below league average, though in my defense that's probably because of how much they've been behind the last few weeks.
I'm starting to think drafting Maye was the mistake. This team needs draft picks in volume given the quality of the roster and a functioning offensive line. No quarterback put into the current situation is being put in a position to succeed. They needed to build out the team around the quarterback before they drafted one. Maybe Maye turns out to be great, or maybe Maye is the next Sam Darnold -- a potentially decent quarterback if surrounded by competent players and coaching, but doomed to be a disappointment otherwise.
My guess is it's far, far likelier he's the latter.
Hopefully Wolf starts to hit on some of these. Polk, for as good as his hands look, just doesn't seem to be able to get separation against man coverage. Baker can't get on the field. Douglas can't get any playing time because the offensive line makes playing 11 personnel pretty perilous. What's the point of drafting these wide receivers if the line is so awful you can't even get 3 WRs on the field at the same time?
Edit: Well, turns out I'm just factually incorrect. The Patriots are in 11 just a bit below league average, though in my defense that's probably because of how much they've been behind the last few weeks.
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I'm sure this has been said somewhere-- because honestly what part of this have we not unpacked?-- but if you believe at all (as Kraft seems to want to, perhaps with good evidence) that there is a "Patriots Way" that is admirable and goes beyond "What Belichicks wants" than it makes sense to continue and build on this culture by promoting from within.
As the old line goes "culture eats strategy for lunch"
Bringing in an outsider (unless you could land someone like Vrabel) is something you do if you want to change the culture in some way. But if you don't want to change the culture than bringing in an outsider can introduce downside risk, all else being equal.
Now, it's worth flagging that Mayo has himself brought in outsiders to his coaching staff, which I've heard him talk about as an intentional move to get new ideas and approaches. So, this isn't an all or nothing situation.
As the old line goes "culture eats strategy for lunch"
Bringing in an outsider (unless you could land someone like Vrabel) is something you do if you want to change the culture in some way. But if you don't want to change the culture than bringing in an outsider can introduce downside risk, all else being equal.
Now, it's worth flagging that Mayo has himself brought in outsiders to his coaching staff, which I've heard him talk about as an intentional move to get new ideas and approaches. So, this isn't an all or nothing situation.
We would be in a much better place right now if we had taken that Giants trade offer and letting them get Maye, you draft who they drafted and use the 2nd round pick to target a linemen instead of Polk. Then you would of most likely had 2 top 10 picks potential 2 top 5 picks for next year. Water under the bridge now, but that was our chance to rebuild this mess at a much faster pace and Wolf blew it imo.
The offense, ok he gets some slack. But maybe the defense shouldn’t start sucking out of nowhere. In particular, the defense looks less professional - players out of position, missed tackles, miscommunication, it’s a giant ball of bad.
View: https://twitter.com/gregabedard/status/1840783712780222550?s=46
And the in-game decisionmaking/media communication is what it is, too. A very bad start.
Your not going to get any argument out of me, i think Mayo right now is a bad coach and frankly didnt deserve this opportunity yet.
I think this started with a comment I made in here, but it wasn't really serious. Basically, the premise was that Brissett is not good, and the things he's really not good at (quick decision making, escaping pressure, throwing on the run) are a bad matchup for this OL, and the consensus around here is that you can't play Maye behind this OL. That means if you wanted to make a change at QB, Milton is the option. At best, he's big and can run away from pressure, and the team can start running plays that leverage a mobile QB as they'll need to when Maye is actually the starter. At worst, what, the Pats continue to lose? Again, I don't seriously expect this to happen, but I thought it was an interesting idea after watching a really bad performance from Brissett.
My biggest concern is they talked about aggression and freedom in the defense.... but the discipline has been garbage. I think they WANT to be like the Vikings under Flores, but they just are not good enough at creative playcalling, so instead it's just an undisciplined group where nobody does the dirty work to set the edge and safeties/LBs are jumping everything and hanging the DBs out to dry
right, the point is if they’re drafting 2nd or 3rd overall, it would be a pretty bad value as of today to take Banks, Campbell or Ersery that high.
So what’s the plan if Mason Graham or Will Johnson falls in your lap? Reach for an OT? Or take a great prospect at a different position and punt the OL?
I’m sure the Pats will be drafting high enough to have an available tackle prospect. Whether it’s a guy they like, and like enough to pass over a superior prospect at another position is another story.
taking any of these guys top 3 would be insane IMO. Even with the positional scarcity, I’m not drafting one of the big 3 tackles over Graham, Johnson or maybe McMillian/Harper and some of the edge rushers
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the 1990 Browns went 3-13 and were dead last in defense (and 2nd to last in offense). In 1991 they were 14th in defense and 16th in offense. They were clearly ascending and held back by a bad QB situation
Their point differential went from a staggering -246 to -5 in one year. They allowed 164 fewer points in BB’s first year as HC.
If Mayo has a 3 game improvement from 2023 and wins 7 games this year, while showing improvement on both sides of the ball, nobody would be complaining.
the construction of the roster on defense is pretty poor. They don’t have a safety who can cover, I guess they signed Hawkins to be that guy? They paid both their run stopping coverage limited safeties decent money so I guess they will go cheap and dumpster dive to find one who can cover
the front 7 is predictably a mess since they basically ignored it all off-season. They were one Barmore injury away from having a bottom 10(ish) DL and had no depth at LB. They let Mack Wilson go and replaced him with Takitaki who was hurt at the time of acquisition. Didn’t bother to add any depth at DT or off ball LB, just relied on practice squad caliber guys and JAGs and hoped coaching could pull it together.
Seems like an obvious place to have spent money on role players and nice depth pieces instead of relying on guys like Pharms, McMillian, Elliss, Ekuale, etc
For all the money they wasted on Okorafor, Watts, Hooper, Osborn, Hawkins and Takitaki, they probably could have signed one pretty good player and gotten a better outcome.
I wonder if Marcus Jones could eventually be the McCourty replacement, but it is not as if they don;t need him at CB right now.
If that happens you feel great? You either get to take a stud or trade down, get the LT you want and pick up a ton of assets for it.
Happened pretty recently in 2023, ARI had a top 3 pick, they needed an OT, there was a blue chip defender on the board....
They traded #3 and #105 for #12, #33 and 1st and 3rd the following year.
They then chose to trade 12, 34 and 168 to move back up to #6 and get #81, where they took the 1st tackle.
Having high picks in a draft that doesn't have a top 5 that aligns with your needs is really good..... unless what you need is a QB.
Sure, if you can make the trades and nail the picks. If you can’t find good enough value or move down too low and miss your guy (etc), it’s not really a great scenario
Since you often say you don’t do hypothetical trades (referencing what the Pats could have done to get a tackle in 2024), it’s strange you’d think it’s a boon to get a pick which they may or may not want to trade, may or may not get a suitable offer for and may or may not result in a tackle even upon trading down.
Also don’t think it’s a great year to expect a godfather offer to trade down unless you’re drafting 1st overall. Don’t think teams will be selling the farm to move up to 3rd overall.
I don't think you can count hypothetical trades, and sure they might not be able to trade back... which is why having the earlier pick is great, your fallback is the BPA. If they go into the draft at say #5 they will get one of the top 5 players on their board if they want him. It puts them in control of the trade. When we talk about not assuming trades, I both mean return AND feasibility. But it's a lot easier generally to trade down than up. I'm not saying the Patriots if they got 3 could assume the same result as ARI getting 3 (or same return) but rather I am saying that one real possibility based on history is a strong trade offer to move down, while another is simply getting a top player, that is always better than a later pick.
right but my entire point was we can’t assume the Pats will walk out of round 1 with a LT. There are plenty of scenarios where they don’t, and they run it back with Wallace/Lowe and the collection of misfit waiver wire guys.
seems like a lot of fans have talked themselves into the idea that
- the only way to fix LT is a first round pick
-the Pats will have a high pick and thus they will take a LT in round 1, ensuring a solution to their glaring hole
I don’t think it’s that simple and I think the higher the Pats pick, the less likely it is they walk out of April with a round 1 tackle. I think a pick 8-14 actually would more likely net a tackle than a top 5 pick.
I just hope Wolf has a plan for LT that isn’t the trash on the roster and doesn’t require a 1st round LT
Wolf will not have a job if he doesn't either draft an OT, sign one as free agent, or trade for one. Everyone knows that. They are not running it back with Wallace/Lowe. Your constant complaining about the 2024 draft is tiresome.
I could see a trade back, hopefully with a QB needy team. It's not a great year to need an OT at the top of the draft. This year they should stockpile assets. It's becoming clear this team has many, many needs.
This is taking pessimism to absurd levels. You really think it is likely that, after a year when the team was held hostage by a low performing OL, they might not address the position at all in the offseason? That's absurd.
Bad QB year too (which is why the Maye pick was so good, drafts with 3 QBs of that caliber at the top are rare.)
True, it's why they had to really stick and pick in the '24 draft. It will be interesting to see how this class develops. There's enough there (and enough need) that I think you'll still see some top 10 picks spent on QBs. Beck, Ewers, Sanders, Ward, maybe even Milroe...who knows. They won't go 1-3, but could still have 4-5 in R1.
