Getting Smart with Statistics

joe dokes

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What Smart is doing is making teams play, or attempt to play, old school post basketball, and players just are not used to it.

"Hey, I have 5 or 6 inches on this guy, I can back him down!"

But they have very little experience doing that, so they end up taking a contested shot from a very inefficient range. A shot they also likely don't have a lot of experience with.
Or they back the guy down, then take a turnaround / fadeaway.
 

lovegtm

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What Smart is doing is making teams play, or attempt to play, old school post basketball, and players just are not used to it.

"Hey, I have 5 or 6 inches on this guy, I can back him down!"

But they have very little experience doing that, so they end up taking a contested shot from a very inefficient range. A shot they also likely don't have a lot of experience with.
And the thing is, even for the guys who are pretty good at post play, but not elite...it’s just not super efficient offense.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Marcus Smarf is now shooting 37.3% from deep and 40% overall with the standard November caveat that sample sizes are still tiny. His defensive metrics don't stand out at present but I think many of his fans realize a lot of what he does well isn't being properly measured. That said, his shooting improvement last season looks real and sustainable thus far.

Finally, this feels like the most Marcus Smarf team of his entire time as a Celtic - if that makes any sense.
 

lovegtm

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Marcus Smarf is now shooting 37.3% from deep and 40% overall with the standard November caveat that sample sizes are still tiny. His defensive metrics don't stand out at present but I think many of his fans realize a lot of what he does well isn't being properly measured. That said, his shooting improvement last season looks real and sustainable thus far.

Finally, this feels like the most Marcus Smarf team of his entire time as a Celtic - if that makes any sense.
Re the bolded: he now has about 400 attempts since last year at 37%. That's not particularly small. If you want to add in the year before, he's at 34% on 672 attempts, with reason to think that that year was an aberration due to his injury issues and still working in the new shooting form.

Marcus Smart, High Volume 33%+ 3P shooter seems like a quite safe bet going forward, when you combine stats with the eye test. Go watch video of his shooting form as a rookie and now--the difference is striking. Even when he made those 7 3s against Cleveland in the playoffs, his form was a lot less efficient with more moving parts.

And yes, this is the Smarfiest team that he has ever Smarfed. And he personally should legit should be in the top 5 DPOY voting.
 
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Bertha

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I am not a shot mechanics guru, so I appreciate all the good insight on this forum. To the eye test, he seems to have significantly better shot selection on 3s than earlier in his career. Much more in the flow of the offense, i.e. shots that CBS wants. In terms of defense and overall court vision, I feel he has always had an outstanding basketball IQ. Seeing his game and decision making mature over his career is a true pleasure.
 

lovegtm

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I am not a shot mechanics guru, so I appreciate all the good insight on this forum. To the eye test, he seems to have significantly better shot selection on 3s than earlier in his career. Much more in the flow of the offense, i.e. shots that CBS wants. In terms of defense and overall court vision, I feel he has always had an outstanding basketball IQ. Seeing his game and decision making mature over his career is a true pleasure.
Hmmmm...from watching every minute so far this year, I'd say that he actually is just as jack-happy now wrt 3-point selection...he's just a much-improved shooter.
 

Bertha

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Probably some perception bias there in my part. It just seems like so many less possessions of “my turn to shoot” without Mr. C around. We still see “no Marcus, no, no.......nice shot”, but seems less frequent.

On the other hand, jack happy is a great phrase. Sounds like a Who song played in reverse.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Hmmmm...from watching every minute so far this year, I'd say that he actually is just as jack-happy now wrt 3-point selection...he's just a much-improved shooter.
Yes. When it goes in it is always in the flow of the offense.

I do think that when he can move the ball around the perimeter to someone else with a better look, he usually does. And most of his 3 attempts are wide open ones.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I forgot to add that he is, at present, taking the most threes per game of his career. That he has done so while still hitting them at a ~37% clip is great.

Stretch sixes who can shoot like that are rarer than unicorns.
 

benhogan

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It just seems like so many less possessions of “my turn to shoot” without Mr. C around. We still see “no Marcus, no, no.......nice shot”, but seems less frequent.

On the other hand, jack happy is a great phrase. Sounds like a Who song played in reverse.
every time I read "Mr. C" I immediately envision Tom Bosley and then Kyrie, just one more pleasurable swipe :fonz:
 

Spelunker

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every time I read "Mr. C" I immediately envision Tom Bosley and then Kyrie, just one more pleasurable swipe :fonz:
See, I think of Mr. C from Twin Peaks: the Return - the evil doppelganger of Agent Cooper infected by the presence of the malevolent spirit BOB. That'd make Kemba the cheerful, steadfast, steady original Dale Cooper.

"Dougie" would be Terry in a contract year.
 

Bertha

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every time I read "Mr. C" I immediately envision Tom Bosley and then Kyrie, just one more pleasurable swipe :fonz:
I admit to enjoying the Mr Chemistry thread more than I should. I envision a combination of Tom Bodley and Bryan Cranston/Walter White from Breaking Bad.
 

RoDaddy

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I'm honestly not convinced that there is or has been another NBA player like Marcus Smart. Such an odd assortment of skills.
I dunno, lots of overlap with Dennis Johnson - big physical defensive minded player with an evolving shot who can also run the offense
 

luckiestman

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Bulpett has this quote from Stevens:



“Him not making the All-Defensive team a couple of those years kind of ‘de-validates’ the honor, because he should be on it every year,” he said. “He should be on it every time. Marcus Smart should be one of the first names on it every year, and so I think he’s always been a great defender. But he’s improving every year. His versatility defensively has helped, but it’s also helped that he has other versatile defenders around.”

View: https://twitter.com/SteveBHoop/status/1195467133825601536?s=20
 

Eddie Jurak

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I dunno, lots of overlap with Dennis Johnson - big physical defensive minded player with an evolving shot who can also run the offense
I don't see it. Johnson was a talented but conventional guard, IMO. You didn't see the Celtics trying to get him reps defending bigs in the post, for example.
 

benhogan

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can we just put that C on Smart's jersey?

that's the least Danny could do after getting him on that dirt-cheap contract
 

nighthob

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They should also start talking an extension with him now while his love of the team might exceed his value around the league.
 

luckiestman

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They should also start talking an extension with him now while his love of the team might exceed his value around the league.
2 years left at 13 a year? What are we looking at in an extension. WYC going to a have a large payroll soon.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Its funny. Smarf is 52nd overall in DWS, 33rd in deflections and doesn't show up on many other defensive leaderboards "advanced" or otherwise. I think we collectively understand that defensive metrics are questionable at best and that Smarf seems to break a lot of measures of value.

That said, the on/off data cited by Hardwood Paroxysm is hard to ignore and it matches up with what we appear to be seeing - the guy is a terror to opposing players large and small.

As a side note, the Clippers game is going to be fun for a lot of reasons but it might feature some of the best defenders in the NBA on the floor together at one time in any NBA game. Now watch it be a higher scoring game than the Wizards match-up...
 

RorschachsMask

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I'm feeling pretty good about my 40% from deep prediction earlier in this thread. When he is taking a balanced shot, he is a legitimate good shooter.
 

lovegtm

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Honestly I would rather have Marcus at extension money than Gordon Hayward’s post-30 max years.
I'd be very down with this, and Smart might be too--he has made a lot of money, but not generational wealth (after taxes).

I think they'll need to re-sign Hayward in some form, but it would be with the idea of trading him to a wing-needy team if the opportunity arose. I don't think this would particularly engender bad will around the league: the team has stuck through him hard through the injury, and he's a very, very rich man.
 

Saints Rest

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Its funny. Smarf is 52nd overall in DWS, 33rd in deflections and doesn't show up on many other defensive leaderboards "advanced" or otherwise. I think we collectively understand that defensive metrics are questionable at best and that Smarf seems to break a lot of measures of value.

That said, the on/off data cited by Hardwood Paroxysm is hard to ignore and it matches up with what we appear to be seeing - the guy is a terror to opposing players large and small.

As a side note, the Clippers game is going to be fun for a lot of reasons but it might feature some of the best defenders in the NBA on the floor together at one time in any NBA game. Now watch it be a higher scoring game than the Wizards match-up...
I think some of this speaks to the nebulous "makes those around him better." Usually that refers to players on the offensive end, but with Marcus, much like KG, he makes those around him better not he defensive end. We have seen him acting as MLB out there, directing his teammates where to go, but we've also heard Kemba talk about how watching Marcus inspires him: "It’s fun to be a part of, and it makes you want to get out there and kind of do the same things as much as possible. I think it’s really inspiring to see what he does, and you just try to apply it to your game, as well, try to help him out as much as possible.” (from the Herald article linked upthread)
 

benhogan

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Honestly I would rather have Marcus at extension money than Gordon Hayward’s post-30 max years.
agreed since his current deal ends at age 28 (what age years could the Celtics lock-in?)

BUT how would you propose an extension? amount? size? when would it kick in? cap implications?

Your cap gymnastics are pretty good, so I'd like to hear your thoughts

Since they have Marcus so freaking cheap it's hard to make the #s work, without insulting him? His per year extension would have to be at least what JB got, right?

I do think he should be the Captain. Longest tenured Celtic, embodies sacrifice for the greater good.
He has his boned headed moments (mirror gate, bong hits on youtube, yelling at Brad) but I really don't care about that stuff. And more importantly, his teammates probably don't care. He seems great in the locker room and is always engaged with the rookies/new players.
 

JCizzle

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I'm blown away at how young he still is. His current deal ends at 28?? It feels like he's been on the team for a decade and should be in his early 30s
 

bankshot1

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"...but with Marcus, much like KG, he makes those around him better not he defensive end. We have seen him acting as MLB out there, directing his teammates where to go..."

I've often comped Smart to a MLB, in size and how he approaches the game, in a physical but generally intelligent manner. And last night her told Tatum to play for a back-tap on the jump ball that led to Tatum's lay-up.

Tatum on the play: "
“Smart told me the whole time, like, ‘Yeah, they’re going to tip it back. Shoot the lane,’” Tatum recalled. “I’m like, ‘No.’ He’s like, ‘Listen to me. Listen to me.’ I’m like, ‘All right, yo.’ And I listened to him, and it worked.”
 

lexrageorge

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I'd be very down with this, and Smart might be too--he has made a lot of money, but not generational wealth (after taxes).

I think they'll need to re-sign Hayward in some form, but it would be with the idea of trading him to a wing-needy team if the opportunity arose. I don't think this would particularly engender bad will around the league: the team has stuck through him hard through the injury, and he's a very, very rich man.
Trading Hayward sometime after he resigns, especially a year or two into his new contract, would be fine. He'd still be making his coin, and if he's traded in that case it's probably to a decent situation. Trading him this past offseason, as some posters have suggested, would have had serious repercussions into the team's ability to attract future free agents, especially after the IT4 situation which got unfairly blamed on the front office. Big difference.

As for Smart, the problem is that the rules on extensions are so damn complex, so it's hard to see how it could work.
 

benhogan

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"...but with Marcus, much like KG, he makes those around him better not he defensive end. We have seen him acting as MLB out there, directing his teammates where to go..."

I've often comped Smart to a MLB, in size and how he approaches the game, in a physical but generally intelligent manner. And last night her told Tatum to play for a back-tap on the jump ball that led to Tatum's lay-up.

Tatum on the play: "
“Smart told me the whole time, like, ‘Yeah, they’re going to tip it back. Shoot the lane,’” Tatum recalled. “I’m like, ‘No.’ He’s like, ‘Listen to me. Listen to me.’ I’m like, ‘All right, yo.’ And I listened to him, and it worked.”
more non-boxscore Smart: that tip was created by Marcus's hustle play (reviewed/reversed) off a Theis missed FT. No rebound/no steal for MS just pure winning.
 

nighthob

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agreed since his current deal ends at age 28 (what age years could the Celtics lock-in?)

BUT how would you propose an extension? amount? size? when would it kick in? cap implications?

Your cap gymnastics are pretty good, so I'd like to hear your thoughts

Since they have Marcus so freaking cheap it's hard to make the #s work, without insulting him? His per year extension would have to be at least what JB got, right?
If I remember correctly all incentives are figured in to the last year's value of a contract for extension purposes, meaning that the extension would be roughly 2/36 tacked on to the end of the current deal if they did it this summer.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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View: https://twitter.com/briantrobb/status/1195684256200187904?s=21

Marcus Smart is shooting 40.8 percent from 3-point range despite taking 6.9 attempts per game (16th in NBA). He ranks 4th(!) in the NBA in accuracy among high-volume shooters (6.9+ attempts per game).
A Smarf that can sustainably shoot 40% from three on ~ six+ attempts per game makes his contract a huge bargain. It also makes him the best all around player on a pretty talented Celtics roster.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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"...but with Marcus, much like KG, he makes those around him better not he defensive end. We have seen him acting as MLB out there, directing his teammates where to go..."

I've often comped Smart to a MLB, in size and how he approaches the game, in a physical but generally intelligent manner. And last night her told Tatum to play for a back-tap on the jump ball that led to Tatum's lay-up.

Tatum on the play: "
“Smart told me the whole time, like, ‘Yeah, they’re going to tip it back. Shoot the lane,’” Tatum recalled. “I’m like, ‘No.’ He’s like, ‘Listen to me. Listen to me.’ I’m like, ‘All right, yo.’ And I listened to him, and it worked.”
View: https://twitter.com/WTP_BDiehards/status/1195817653740412928?s=20
 

InstaFace

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Having jumped the play, the steal was no gimme, it required a very athletic play from Tatum.

Having stolen the ball, the layup was no gimme, it required a very athletic play from Tatum.

Let's not lose that in our sploogefest for Mastermind Smart.
 

lovegtm

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Having jumped the play, the steal was no gimme, it required a very athletic play from Tatum.

Having stolen the ball, the layup was no gimme, it required a very athletic play from Tatum.

Let's not lose that in our sploogefest for Mastermind Smart.
It just makes him even more of a mastermind—he is fully outsourcing the athletic process. Soon he will sit in a velour robe on one end of the court telepathically willing defensive rotations into existence.
 

lovegtm

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A Smarf that can sustainably shoot 40% from three on ~ six+ attempts per game makes his contract a huge bargain. It also makes him the best all around player on a pretty talented Celtics roster.
It's hard to be the best player on a good NBA roster without being able to create your own shot efficiently, but that's nitpicking: this Smarf would be a top 3-4 player on any of the teams with championship aspirations, and would fit seamlessly on any of them. That's insanely valuable, and makes him basically untradeable at $12M/year.

His shooting improvement highlights one of my biggest pet peeves with people snarkily talking about regression to career norms: he's re-worked his shot to the point that his early-career numbers are about as relevant to him as Lonzo Ball's are to him. He may not be a 40% guy forever, but he's pretty clearly a solid shooter now (especially when you look at the evidence re his free throws).
 

Eddie Jurak

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It's hard to be the best player on a good NBA roster without being able to create your own shot efficiently, but that's nitpicking: this Smarf would be a top 3-4 player on any of the teams with championship aspirations, and would fit seamlessly on any of them. That's insanely valuable, and makes him basically untradeable at $12M/year.
Yes. He provides a different (and complementary) kind of value compared to what the Celtics get from Walker, Brown, Tatum, and Gordon.
 

benhogan

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It just makes him even more of a mastermind—he is fully outsourcing the athletic process. Soon he will sit in a velour robe on one end of the court telepathically willing defensive rotations into existence.
hilarious

but he only gets Mastermind status with me, when his MS edition slippers outsell Air Jordans
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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It just makes him even more of a mastermind—he is fully outsourcing the athletic process. Soon he will sit in a velour robe on one end of the court telepathically willing defensive rotations into existence.
It's hard to be the best player on a good NBA roster without being able to create your own shot efficiently, but that's nitpicking: this Smarf would be a top 3-4 player on any of the teams with championship aspirations, and would fit seamlessly on any of them. That's insanely valuable, and makes him basically untradeable at $12M/year.

His shooting improvement highlights one of my biggest pet peeves with people snarkily talking about regression to career norms: he's re-worked his shot to the point that his early-career numbers are about as relevant to him as Lonzo Ball's are to him. He may not be a 40% guy forever, but he's pretty clearly a solid shooter now (especially when you look at the evidence re his free throws).
Its why I used the words "all around". There are certainly better offensive players on the roster but who, at present, is a better two way player than Smarf?

Also, I totally agree that while Tatum's jump ball play against GSW was spectacular, the fact that Smart convinced him to do it was more so. He is now one of the veterans and he is using his role to make those around him better by educating and directing them. He also seems well liked by his teammates too. Its a pretty stark contrast between that and other athletes who talk about leadership publicly while seemingly not actually the doing actual work.
 

NomarsFool

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I think Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward are both better two players at the moment. Nothing against Smart, I'm glad he's doing what he's doing and is certainly contributing a lot. But, I think those two are more valuable to the team.