Getting Smart with Statistics

nighthob

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Why is everybody so keen on trading Rozier? Given the durability issues, I wouldn't be so confident about Irving making it back to peak condition. Rozier has a great handle, low turnover ratios, and improving distribution skills.
Rozier is the backup point guard in Boston, but he’s hitting restricted free agency in the summer when the first wave of cap bump contracts are coming off the books. So there are going to be a lot f teams in the market for help in the summer of ‘19.

Rozier’s going to get paid like a starter and Boston isn’t going to be in a position to pay him given that they’re going to be re-signing Irving to a 30% of the cap deal. Smart’s going to be closer to the MLE due to the lack of teams with cap space and the amount that somene’s going to have to pay Smart to be a sixth man. There just aren’t going to be a lot of bidders for him.

If they can move Rozier for a mid first and draft a replacement on rookie scale then they have four more years of cheap backup, and possibly a long term Irving replacement if they don’t want his post-30 contract.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Given that Rozier is a RFA next summer, probably. But Clips seem like a decent match since they don’t have a long-term answer at PG and have 12/13 in the draft. It will all depend on the Smart situation. If he goes, then Rozier likely stays.

I dunno. He seems redundant with Lou Williams except he plays D. Rozier is a SG who can play a passable PG. I think any team that signs him will be using him as a SG mostly.
 

dhellers

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Rozier is the backup point guard in Boston, but he’s hitting restricted free agency in the summer when the first wave of cap bump contracts are coming off the books. So there are going to be a lot f teams in the market for help in the summer of ‘19.

Rozier’s going to get paid like a starter and Boston isn’t going to be in a position to pay him given that they’re going to be re-signing Irving to a 30% of the cap deal. Smart’s going to be closer to the MLE due to the lack of teams with cap space and the amount that somene’s going to have to pay Smart to be a sixth man. There just aren’t going to be a lot of bidders for him.

If they can move Rozier for a mid first and draft a replacement on rookie scale then they have four more years of cheap backup, and possibly a long term Irving replacement if they don’t want his post-30 contract.
Why the rush to move Rozier, or Smart? The Celts have a lot of young talent, and several draft picks, so it is not like they need to do something to avoid decrepitude.

That is: if this year's team is available next year, and given expected health AND growth -- it is nearly certain that next year they will be a genuine contender. It seems foolish to sacrifice this kind of opportunity to add uncertain quality assets.

IOW: sometimes it is wiser to think short term than long term.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Why the rush to move Rozier, or Smart? The Celts have a lot of young talent, and several draft picks, so it is not like they need to do something to avoid decrepitude.

That is: if this year's team is available next year, and given expected health AND growth -- it is nearly certain that next year they will be a genuine contender. It seems foolish to sacrifice this kind of opportunity to add uncertain quality assets.

IOW: sometimes it is wiser to think short term than long term.
Smart os a restricted free agent, so if he gets a contract offer for more than the Celtics are willing to pay, he's gone. If he doesn't, he'll be back.

Rozier is an RFA the year after next, meaning that in that offseason, the Celtics will have Rozier, Kyrie, and possibly Al all hit free agency. The year after that, Jaylen will hit free agency (and Al if he didn't opt out the year before), followed by Tatum and perhaps Hayward.

It's not wrong, per se, to play for next year. But at some point they are going to lose players for financial reasons - it's just a question of which ones and when. Rozier is one guy to look at trading, if there is good value in return.
 

The Mort Report

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I’m going to pull from a couple previous posts without quoting, because I feel like people are sorta talking around what makes Smart more valuable than Terry.

Smart, at his best, is a 6th or 7th man providing high end D with the ability to close out a tough tight game. He is valuable to a contender, but not a middling team or a rebuilding team. To have a contending team in this day and age you have a couple max contracts and not a lot of wiggle room. I don’t know really any other team’s cap situation but I think if Smart hits FA our biggest competition would be the 76ers.

Terry is a guy a middling team’s GM can talk his owner into paying near max for(see Turner, Evan), It only takes 1. It also only takes one GM to offer a decent first rounder for Terry. When everyone is healthy scoring and ball handling will be far less of and issue than tenacious D(yes you’re welcome)
 

Eddie Jurak

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I’m going to pull from a couple previous posts without quoting, because I feel like people are sorta talking around what makes Smart more valuable than Terry.

Smart, at his best, is a 6th or 7th man providing high end D with the ability to close out a tough tight game. He is valuable to a contender, but not a middling team or a rebuilding team. To have a contending team in this day and age you have a couple max contracts and not a lot of wiggle room. I don’t know really any other team’s cap situation but I think if Smart hits FA our biggest competition would be the 76ers.

Terry is a guy a middling team’s GM can talk his owner into paying near max for(see Turner, Evan), It only takes 1. It also only takes one GM to offer a decent first rounder for Terry. When everyone is healthy scoring and ball handling will be far less of and issue than tenacious D(yes you’re welcome)
The only part of this I really disagree with is the analogy between Rozier and Turner. I think Rozier is a legit NBA starting PG, or will be at his peak, while ET was and is never more than a decent role player.

Agree that Rozier is going to get paid.
 

Sprowl

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I take issue with your evaluation of Rozier. I don't think he has great handle, at least not insofar as he is able to use it to great efficiency. As often as not, he finds himself pounding the ball into the parquet through a series of useless dribbles. Where his handle is most effective, IMO, is separating himself from a defender on the perimeter for an open shot (see game 1 of this Series). However, his handle is not anything like Chris Paul, Kyrie, Harden, Westbrook (pick your guy) to get to the basket or create for others. He simply doesn't have that type of offense generating skill, at least not yet. I also think his distribution skills are underwhelming and have not witnessed the improvement that you suggest. I like Terry, he's been a fantastic #2 PG given Kyrie's injury, but I wouldn't be shy about moving him at all if it netted us a decent return.
For his first two years, I'd agree that Rozier made a poor argument for himself as a point guard. He created only for himself, his handle worked primarily for getting him an open shot, and he lacked the court vision for playmaking -- all plays had to go through Horford.

I see several breakthroughs in his third year, and especially since Kyrie was sidelined. Instead of a 'great handle', I should qualify it:
His handle is reliable, he doesn't lose poise under pressure, and he can bring the ball up the court against anybody. Also, his court vision and/or patience has improved that he will drive and dish early in the shot clock. He doesn't create well for others, but he takes good care of the ball: his assist-to-turnover ratio is almost 3-to-1, and his steal-to-turnover ratio remains at 1-to-1.

His 3pt% is up to 38%, so defenses know they have to attempt to guard him on the perimeter, which opens up the lane. His finishing skills near the basket are still haphazard, but he can make some difficult shots (or at least he could in college, and may again). At 24, he hasn't hit his ceiling yet, and he's young enough to be durable while Irving, Hayward and Horford will struggle to stay on the court. The NBA takes a toll on the body.
 

InstaFace

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Can we Get Smart with highlight clips? I need to see that video of him laying out to save a loose ball from going out of bounds, because the broadcast gave me no replay of it, nor the postgame highlights. He was a fucking menace out there tonight, in the best way.
 

joe dokes

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Sean grande said the the 4th quarter was the Marcus smartiest quarter Marcus smart has ever played.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Can we Get Smart with highlight clips? I need to see that video of him laying out to save a loose ball from going out of bounds, because the broadcast gave me no replay of it, nor the postgame highlights. He was a fucking menace out there tonight, in the best way.
That play was unbelievable. Just flat out summed up the player and the two teams.

His end of first half lost ball-recovered and touch pass to Morris for a bucket-steal-pass ahead to Morris for another bucket swung the momentum. He’s such a delight to watch.
 

HomeRunBaker

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That play was unbelievable. Just flat out summed up the player and the two teams.

His end of first half lost ball-recovered and touch pass to Morris for a bucket-steal-pass ahead to Morris for another bucket swung the momentum. He’s such a delight to watch.
Love Smart in this role where he can go balls to the wall for every minute on the floor. There isn't a more ideal 3rd guard/combo guard for a second unit in the league. He was incredible out there last night.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Looking ahead, Smart is a better fit on this team than Rozier.

Rozier is clearly the better scorer, but the Celtics have guys who can score (Irving, Hayward, Tatum, Brown). Smart is better at running the offense, espescially the pick and roll, and better at defense, intangibles, and versatility in who he can guard.

I think my offseason plan would be, sign Smart (if he's not blown away by a huge RFA offer) and test the trade market on Rozier. If the can get a significant return on Rozier, do it. If all they can get is a marginal upgrade of their first round pick, play out the string with Rozier and let him hit RFA status.
 

In my lifetime

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I have no right to expect this and this is pure wishcasting, but how about begging for Kyrie and Horford to take 2-3 million less than max so both Smart and Rozier can stay. I know it's the fan in me being greedy and right now I should be satisfied if Kyrie just decides to sign with the Celtics. Watching this team play together as a team is just joyful as compared to the Cav's superstar-centric offense and inconsistent D.
 

the moops

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I have no right to expect this and this is pure wishcasting, but how about begging for Kyrie and Horford to take 2-3 million less than max so both Smart and Rozier can stay.
Those guys taking a few million less will have little effect on whether Rozier or Smart stay. Celtics can keep both of them should they not care about the tax bill.
 

bakahump

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What do we think the Tax bill would look like? I keep seeing reference to it but am not sure the actual price tag.

I would hope that Wyc would recognize that a championship run is finite and that you should maximize that window to be as productive (even if not as long) as possible. So even losing money for a couple years (which I doubt they would actually be doing) might be justified. But like In My Lifetime, I am speaking as a fan not the owner so I realize no owner would agree with me. Easy to spend someone else money.
 

Van Everyman

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A little Marcus pron for your morning woodie:

An underrated part of Smart’s offensive game is his handle inside. He isn’t Kyrie or Harden. But in addition to being a plus passer who sees the court extraordinarily well, his handle allows him to take it to the rim where he is a decent finisher. Not elite but he’s good enough at finishing to draw a crowd inside which allows him to either dish it or get fouled. And notwithstanding game 4 or 5 against Philly where he missed a bunch of free throws, he’s generally solid from the line.
 

lovegtm

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What do we think the Tax bill would look like? I keep seeing reference to it but am not sure the actual price tag.

I would hope that Wyc would recognize that a championship run is finite and that you should maximize that window to be as productive (even if not as long) as possible. So even losing money for a couple years (which I doubt they would actually be doing) might be justified. But like In My Lifetime, I am speaking as a fan not the owner so I realize no owner would agree with me. Easy to spend someone else money.
I think the way this would come into play is that Wyc won't pull an OKC with Rozier. If he has a huge 2018-2019 and gets hit with a massive RFA offer, I could see the Celtics matching with the intention of trading him the following summer, and just eating the luxury tax bill for that shorter period.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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I think the way this would come into play is that Wyc won't pull an OKC with Rozier. If he has a huge 2018-2019 and gets hit with a massive RFA offer, I could see the Celtics matching with the intention of trading him the following summer, and just eating the luxury tax bill for that shorter period.
FWIW, Wyc was on 98.5 yesterday and said, and I'm paraphrasing, that they would go into the tax to keep the window open, but they'll be paying for performance.

Whether this means he's keen on keeping this core together if it gives them the best shot at making the finals year in and year out, or whether he's not going to overpay to retain assets, is uncertain.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I have no right to expect this and this is pure wishcasting, but how about begging for Kyrie and Horford to take 2-3 million less than max so both Smart and Rozier can stay. I know it's the fan in me being greedy and right now I should be satisfied if Kyrie just decides to sign with the Celtics. Watching this team play together as a team is just joyful as compared to the Cav's superstar-centric offense and inconsistent D.
Can anyone think of even one reason why Rozier would want to stay in Boston as a short minutes backup instead of starting elsewhere?
 

ALiveH

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Rozier's value is likely at its peak right now. He's getting extended run to show what he can do in like 34 minutes per game with Kyrie out. When Kyrie is back, Rozier is back to playing 20 minutes per game. I would love to flip him plus another asset to move into the top-8 in the lottery and draft a young big as an eventual replacement for Big Al.
 

Eddie Jurak

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An underrated part of Smart’s offensive game is his handle inside. He isn’t Kyrie or Harden. But in addition to being a plus passer who sees the court extraordinarily well, his handle allows him to take it to the rim where he is a decent finisher. Not elite but he’s good enough at finishing to draw a crowd inside which allows him to either dish it or get fouled. And notwithstanding game 4 or 5 against Philly where he missed a bunch of free throws, he’s generally solid from the line.
Yes. And he’s the one guard on the team besides Kyrie who can consistently throw a good lob to the roll man. Last night he reven had the sense to throw a bounce pass instead of a lob when the roll man was
Mr. Below the Rim Greg Monroe.
 

lovegtm

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Can anyone think of even one reason why Rozier would want to stay in Boston as a short minutes backup instead of starting elsewhere?
Obviously he wouldn't want that. And there's no way the Celtics pay $50M-$60M for their PG and his backup. The only question is whether the Cs force a move early, or match offers in RFA and then trade him after 6 months (iirc) have passed. That was the obvious move for OKC with Harden, and they fucked themselves by jumping the gun on that trade.

Also, with Kyrie back and Terry's minutes down, Terry's price tag could drop somewhat.
 

InstaFace

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An underrated part of Smart’s offensive game is his handle inside. He isn’t Kyrie or Harden. But in addition to being a plus passer who sees the court extraordinarily well, his handle allows him to take it to the rim where he is a decent finisher. Not elite but he’s good enough at finishing to draw a crowd inside which allows him to either dish it or get fouled. And notwithstanding game 4 or 5 against Philly where he missed a bunch of free throws, he’s generally solid from the line.
He has Paul Pierce skills at junk finishes. Where it gets messy around the rim, or just requires a lot of strength and bull-headedness to overcome a foul or dodge two blockers, he's one of the best on the team. Not Kyrie, sure, but he's made so many plays where he maintains concentration even when he was just banged-into or is about to crash to the ground.

I really hope he spends a lot of time to work on his FT%. 73% isn't quite what you'd want from a guy who can draw and-ones as a big skill in his game.
 

pjheff

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Can anyone think of even one reason why Rozier would want to stay in Boston as a short minutes backup instead of starting elsewhere?
Is what Rozier wants particularly relevant? He is on his rookie contract, and even next summer the Celtics can match any offer that he receives as a restricted free agent.
 

nighthob

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I have no right to expect this and this is pure wishcasting, but how about begging for Kyrie and Horford to take 2-3 million less than max so both Smart and Rozier can stay. I know it's the fan in me being greedy and right now I should be satisfied if Kyrie just decides to sign with the Celtics. Watching this team play together as a team is just joyful as compared to the Cav's superstar-centric offense and inconsistent D.
The genie's out of the bottle where Rozier's concerned. He's proven himself to be a legit NBA starter at this point and he's not going to be happy toiling away his prime as bench depth.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Obviously he wouldn't want that. And there's no way the Celtics pay $50M-$60M for their PG and his backup. The only question is whether the Cs force a move early, or match offers in RFA and then trade him after 6 months (iirc) have passed. That was the obvious move for OKC with Harden, and they fucked themselves by jumping the gun on that trade.

Also, with Kyrie back and Terry's minutes down, Terry's price tag could drop somewhat.
Rozier's value isn't going to take a hit when Kyrie returns simply from playing fewer minutes. He's going to be offered a big deal in FA even being restricted knowing that Boston wouldn't match to pay $15-18m for a backup PG. This is why trading him this summer seems logical especially it Smart is inked to remain in his current role. Enjoy Terry while you can.....unless Kyrie is moved instead.


Is what Rozier wants particularly relevant? He is on his rookie contract, and even next summer the Celtics can match any offer that he receives as a restricted free agent.
Yes it is very relevant as the players/agents control movement in this league. They know the Celtics aren't matching any RFA offer so the only value the Celtics would receive is my moving him to the team of his choice this summer.
 

TripleOT

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Rozier's value isn't going to take a hit when Kyrie returns simply from playing fewer minutes. He's going to be offered a big deal in FA even being restricted knowing that Boston wouldn't match to pay $15-18m for a backup PG. This is why trading him this summer seems logical especially it Smart is inked to remain in his current role. Enjoy Terry while you can.....unless Kyrie is moved instead.




Yes it is very relevant as the players/agents control movement in this league. They know the Celtics aren't matching any RFA offer so the only value the Celtics would receive is my moving him to the team of his choice this summer.
Assuming Kyrie stays, gets healthy, and is the cornerstone of the team the next half decade, trading Rozier and keeping Smart is the better way to go if the Cs are going to defeat Golden State. Orlando is sitting at 6 and has needed a PG for years.

HRB, do you thing Orlando would move that pick for Rozier+, and what do you think the + would be? The 27th pick and a future, non-Sacto pick? Would Rozier and the Sacto pick be enough?
 

nighthob

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I'd gladly go Rozier plus the Kings pick for #6 this year. Adding someone like Bamba, Jackson, or Carter to this roster makes Boston the team of the next decade. Financially speaking you couldn't sustain high/mid lottery picks in four straight drafts anyway unless one of them busted out. So if you can land Big Al's apprentice, you gladly give up the 2019 lottery ticket.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Assuming Kyrie stays, gets healthy, and is the cornerstone of the team the next half decade, trading Rozier and keeping Smart is the better way to go if the Cs are going to defeat Golden State. Orlando is sitting at 6 and has needed a PG for years.

HRB, do you thing Orlando would move that pick for Rozier+, and what do you think the + would be? The 27th pick and a future, non-Sacto pick? Would Rozier and the Sacto pick be enough?
Agreed on first paragraph. I have no idea what Orlando is ever thinking but there are several rebuilding teams either in need of a young PG (Suns, Magic) or looking to move on from their current one (Hawks, Knicks, Charlotte). If Rozier isn't moved this summer there will surely be a big suitor out there for him.
 

JCizzle

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Assuming Kyrie stays, gets healthy, and is the cornerstone of the team the next half decade, trading Rozier and keeping Smart is the better way to go if the Cs are going to defeat Golden State. Orlando is sitting at 6 and has needed a PG for years.

HRB, do you thing Orlando would move that pick for Rozier+, and what do you think the + would be? The 27th pick and a future, non-Sacto pick? Would Rozier and the Sacto pick be enough?
Why is any lottery team going to trade for a 24 year old that will probably help them win right now? I think it's likely that 1-7 will be tanking again next year. Nobody in that range is Rozier away from making a difference, at least not at the expense of even younger, cost controlled talent.
 

nighthob

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Why is any lottery team going to trade for a 24 year old kid that will probably help them win right now? I think it's likely that 1-7 will be looking to be tanking again next year. Nobody in that range is Rozier away from making a difference, at least not at the expense of even younger, cost controlled talent.
The idea behind lottery picks is to get good young players that will help you win. Besides, the Sacramento pick puts the acquiring team in the position that Boston was, you get a lottery pick coming despite your record.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Why is any lottery team going to trade for a 24 year old that will probably help them win right now? I think it's likely that 1-7 will be tanking again next year. Nobody in that range is Rozier away from making a difference, at least not at the expense of even younger, cost controlled talent.
You don't think any of the bottom feeders are going to try and improve by adding good young players this summer? That doesn't mesh with what history suggests. This is still a business and you need to put a competitor product on the floor.
 

JCizzle

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The idea behind lottery picks is to get good young players that will help you win. Besides, the Sacramento pick puts the acquiring team in the position that Boston was, you get a lottery pick coming despite your record.
I agree that adding the Sacramento pick changes the equation. I just don't see Rozier plus filler getting anything near the top-10. I hope to be wrong if it comes to that though.
 

nighthob

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I agree that adding the Sacramento pick changes the equation. I just don't see Rozier plus filler getting anything near the top-10. I hope to be wrong if it comes to that though.
Well, in fairness TOT did ask whether HRB thought that Rozier and the Kings' pick were enough to get a deal done. I think it would probably work from Orlando's point of view because they finally get their good young PG with a complete game and a good shot at a high lottery pick in 2019.

And while the Magic might get an extra win or two out of Rozier, but they're still likely a mid lottery team (especially given that the bottom of the western conference won't be spending next season openly and shamelessly tanking) and would have two picks in the 2-8 range to put around Rozier, Isaac, and Goodwin.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I agree that adding the Sacramento pick changes the equation. I just don't see Rozier plus filler getting anything near the top-10. I hope to be wrong if it comes to that though.
It's Sacramento's likely high lottery pick......that is much more than "filler."

Personally I feel that is too much but a good idea about the type of deal that could be made.
 

nighthob

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It's Sacramento's likely high lottery pick......that is much more than "filler."

Personally I feel that is too much but a good idea about the type of deal that could be made.
You could probably get the Magic to pitch in a future #1 and stagger the protections to make it more likely to convey in 2-3 years. Like I said, a lottery pick this year and next is just too many max deals unless someone busts out (I guess, alternatively, if you're packaging them for Anthony Davis, but I think that actually accelerates the issue).
 

JCizzle

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It's Sacramento's likely high lottery pick......that is much more than "filler."

Personally I feel that is too much but a good idea about the type of deal that could be made.
Ah yeah, I keyed in on the 27th and non-Sacto initially. My bad.
 

InstaFace

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You could probably get the Magic to pitch in a future #1 and stagger the protections to make it more likely to convey in 2-3 years. Like I said, a lottery pick this year and next is just too many max deals unless someone busts out (I guess, alternatively, if you're packaging them for Anthony Davis, but I think that actually accelerates the issue).
That thinking doesn't make sense to me. When we're talking high lottery picks we're talking about young, cost-controlled future stars. Some of whom will flame out and won't be on your roster long-term, but the rest you can keep for 7 years if that's what you want. Those the most valuable assets in the game for just those reasons. "too many max deals" is the ultimate in first-world problems and you have the flexibility to choose between max FA vs young high-lottery star with upside, or both, depending on the luxury tax.

If we draft Al Horford's replacement in this draft or next, we may have several years where we save on his max contract but aren't yet paying max to the new guy. That's a massive net savings that can be plowed into the rest of the roster, or banked to overspend on keeping the right core together.

Now, if you want to argue that we'd prefer SAC's pick in 2019 vs ORL's #6 in 2018, just to space out the development of our stars, I can see that argument. But if we can somehow work Rozier and other draft picks and assets and come away with both - which again, people seem to think Orlando wouldn't go for, but just for the sake of argument - I think you do that every time. How many teams have ever had 4 straight top-6 lottery picks, nevermind while fielding a contender?

The last 5 years, Orlando has drafted 2 (Oladipo), 4 (Gordon), 5 (Hezonja), 11 (Sabonis) and 6 (Isaac), with #6 again to come. That's pretty damn bad, and they don't have much to show for it. If this is The Process Lite, it hasn't yielded the same value for them as the full-fat version. You'd have to think that ownership might be looking to sell tickets one of these years, if even just to get to spitting distance of the 8 seed.
 

nighthob

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That thinking doesn't make sense to me. When we're talking high lottery picks we're talking about young, cost-controlled future stars. Some of whom will flame out and won't be on your roster long-term, but the rest you can keep for 7 years if that's what you want.
If they all hit that's four more max deals on top of Hayward and Irving. There comes a point where you can't keep everybody. And they still have a future (likely) lottery pick coming from the Grizzlies. So if Rozier/2019 lottery pick gets you Horford's (eventual) replacement and kicking a lottery pick down the road a couple of years (thus taking you past the Irving/Hayward max window) it makes good financial sense.

Especially since the core going forward would be Tatum, Brown, and one of Bamba/Jackson/Carter. So at that point you want your lottery picks to come in 21 or 22 in order to augment that new group with cost controlled high end young talent.
 

nighthob

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Right, the Hayward/Irving max window is the next 6-7 years (they're not kicking Hayward to the curb in two more years), so kicking a lottery pick down the road a couple of years so that their max is 6-7 years out makes financial sense.
 

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Sep 29, 2006
655
I don't know if I am in my right mind, but unless I am getting top 8 pick I don't see the value in trading Terry this summer. The more they win in this playoffs, the more I want to run this team back while adding Theis, Irving, Hayward to the mix. They look close enough - that I am valuing a potential run at the trophy.