Getting Smart with Statistics

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
33,162
In three March games Smarf is averaging ~11 3PA per game which is too much but context matters. For these games, he has had to carry a lot more of the load offensively. In January and February, he was averaging just over seven 3PA per game and hitting at a ~38.3% clip. Again, some of that high volume was a function of all the injuries they have dealt with.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,542
Yeah, when you're missing two of the big four and a third member is on a strict minutes restriction, the shots that Marcus doesn't take are being taken by Brad Wannamaker & Co. With Hayward, Brown, and Walker, this isn't an issue.
 

CoffeeNerdness

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2012
4,335
No way he's even close to 100%. He peels himself up off the court at least once per game after taking a punishing shot and I'm pretty sure he may not be able to have kids any longer. Unfortunately a less than 100% Smart who feels he has to carry an injured squad isn't working out too great. 29% from 3 in March isn't carrying, it's actively hurting them. He doesn't look the same on the defensive end either and I suspect perhaps that's part of the reason why they continually get torched by guards from three point land. He was slow/lazy in closing out on that killer Schroder three yesterday being a vivid example in my mind.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
3,699
around the way
Marcus is hardly the problem here. They have a few things to figure out on both ends, and I'm confident that they will. Overall, I think that the bench guys besides Wanamaker just don't get the actions. When you have 3-4 guys like that on the floor at any one time due to injury, the team will look like shit for stretches.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
6,383
Kiev, Ukraine
Without looking at numbers, better playmaker by a good bit, maybe worse at finishing at the rim.
Yeah less about numbers (although he's been an offensive negative by most measures), but more about hijacking possessions and treating himself as a much higher option on the totem poll than he is.

Tons of this stuff comes with 10+ on the shot clock too.

I know, I know he's a Winning Player...but at a certain point making winning decisions on offense matters too.

Brad is starting to have a track record of not being able to rein these types of guys in, and there's no contract year excuse here.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
1,942
Cultural hub of the universe
Yeah for a Winning plays guy he sure has his share of losers. He's become their best at creating for others though, and my sense is that when other guys start getting tentative he gets impatient and forces the issue. Sometimes that works out, too often not so much.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
11,946
On the offensive end, how different is Smart in approach at this point from 2018-19 Rozier?
I thought they were always somewhat similar offensively but it's starting to look like 2018/19 Rozier might have been an off year for Terry shooting wise. Even with that included, over the last 3 seasons, Rozier is shooting .382 from 3. Smart is at .342. Smart is clearly superior defensively but I'm not sure he really does anything better offensively than Rozier.

If Rozier hit 38-40% of his 3s last year, we probably have fonder memories of him. It's possible he should have been taking all those shots and variance just wasn't on his side. Of course, if Rozier hit 9 more 3's last season, he's at 38.0% instead of 35.3%.

As much as we like Smart, it would be interesting to see what this team would do with a more offensively gifted guard who can hit 3s at a 38-40% clip with Smart's volume. We haven't really had a complementary piece to Smart. The closest we've had is Terry Rozier. I'd like to see what the team could do with someone like Joe Harris in place of Smart.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
6,383
Kiev, Ukraine
I thought they were always somewhat similar offensively but it's starting to look like 2018/19 Rozier might have been an off year for Terry shooting wise. Even with that included, over the last 3 seasons, Rozier is shooting .382 from 3. Smart is at .342. Smart is clearly superior defensively but I'm not sure he really does anything better offensively than Rozier.

If Rozier hit 38-40% of his 3s last year, we probably have fonder memories of him. It's possible he should have been taking all those shots and variance just wasn't on his side. Of course, if Rozier hit 9 more 3's last season, he's at 38.0% instead of 35.3%.

As much as we like Smart, it would be interesting to see what this team would do with a more offensively gifted guard who can hit 3s at a 38-40% clip with Smart's volume. We haven't really had a complementary piece to Smart. The closest we've had is Terry Rozier. I'd like to see what the team could do with someone like Joe Harris in place of Smart.
Flipping out Smart for an elite shooter and passable defender is really intriguing to me. At a certain point, I'd rather just have a normal good offensive role player than the WINNING PLAYS kaleidoscope. I just don't know that it will happen, since presumably the team likes his value contract as things get expensive.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
6,383
Kiev, Ukraine
As an example of what I mean about Smart's approach, watch this video. It's an isolated example, but I could find 20 of these clips from the past 5 games with little effort.


Like...what the hell? It's early in the game, you have Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, and Gordon Hayward on the floor, and he makes zero attempt to run the offense. He just jacks up a tough PnR off-the-dribble 3 with Turner closing on him and 15 on the shot clock. If Rozier or Morris did this last year, we'd be all over what cancers they are.

And then the dude comes out after games talking about how the team is sucking and not playing with energy.

I know everyone wants to do the "you have to take the good with the bad" schtick, but the eye test and impact metrics don't support that take at all.

It blows my mind that the organization can't find a way to hold him accountable or find balance in his game. He's not good enough to warrant this treatment.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
11,946
Flipping out Smart for an elite shooter and passable defender is really intriguing to me. At a certain point, I'd rather just have a normal good offensive role player than the WINNING PLAYS kaleidoscope. I just don't know that it will happen, since presumably the team likes his value contract as things get expensive.
I didn't mean completely replacing Smart but in the Joe Harris example, you probably would. Ideally, the team would have a Seth Curry on the bench to sub in for Smart in certain situations. Go with Smart for like 25-28 minutes a game and Curry for the other 20-23. It would give the team 2 wildly different looks.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
6,383
Kiev, Ukraine
I didn't mean completely replacing Smart but in the Joe Harris example, you probably would. Ideally, the team would have a Seth Curry on the bench to sub in for Smart in certain situations. Go with Smart for like 25-28 minutes a game and Curry for the other 20-23. It would give the team 2 wildly different looks.
Yeah, that's probably a better use of resources.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
6,383
Kiev, Ukraine
Last edited:

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
3,878
He does that a lot. His drives to the basket are atrocious. He often dishes off and I think he's phenomenal in that situation. But, he throws up a lot of terrible shots where I assume he is trying to get fouled (like that one against Brooklyn where he got tossed).

I'm sure Smart's a tough guy to coach. Amazing energy, makes great hustle plays (taking charges, coming up with steals) and he makes some big time clutch shots. But, at the same time, makes enough boneheaded plays (fouling at the end of the Brooklyn game) where you want to tear your hair out. I'm sure Brad struggles to find a way to get one without the other.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
6,383
Kiev, Ukraine
He does that a lot. His drives to the basket are atrocious. He often dishes off and I think he's phenomenal in that situation. But, he throws up a lot of terrible shots where I assume he is trying to get fouled (like that one against Brooklyn where he got tossed).

I'm sure Smart's a tough guy to coach. Amazing energy, makes great hustle plays (taking charges, coming up with steals) and he makes some big time clutch shots. But, at the same time, makes enough boneheaded plays (fouling at the end of the Brooklyn game) where you want to tear your hair out. I'm sure Brad struggles to find a way to get one without the other.
Re the bolded: that's why Brad gets paid the big bucks. It's a balance that most other high-energy defensive roleplayers are able to find, and if Smart can't find it, his value goes down a lot.
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
2,428
Saint Paul, MN
Ideally, the team would have a Seth Curry on the bench to sub in for Smart in certain situations. Go with Smart for like 25-28 minutes a game and Curry for the other 20-23. It would give the team 2 wildly different looks.
I never realized this, but Seth Curry is #2 all time in career 3P% at .4432. Crazy
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
2,428
Saint Paul, MN

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
6,383
Kiev, Ukraine
Meh. I don't hate that play. In transition and he has the bigger and slower and not a terribly good defender in Sabonis on him, with nobody else under the basket
Yeah...most bad offensive plays that Marcus makes would be good plays if he were a decent scorer who could finish in the lane.

He’s not though, and there’s not much evidence he ever will be. This is in contrast to his outside shooting, which very well could improve more in the next few years.