Getting Smart with Statistics

RorschachsMask

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He is now at 42/37/80 with a TS pushing 58%. I predicted he would go 40/35/75 this year but I thought it would be borderline.

I'm firmly on the side that they should try to get KD via opt in and trade as opposed to going for KD. Losing Smart in an AD trade on top of Tatum would be tough to swallow.

Kyrie/KD/Tatum/Smart>>>Kyrie/AD/Jaylen. Now obviously it's a long shot, but Jackie Mac/Windhorst/Bernardoni have all said it's at least a possibility.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I normally try to be analytical when it comes to the Cs, especially after I got too into IT4. However I cannot be so when it comes to this guy. I want him to be there when they hoist banner 18 (and 19 as well). He is perfect for the team and the city.

May he get more awards and finish his career in Boston. Marcus Smarf forever.
 

mikeot

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I normally try to be analytical when it comes to the Cs, especially after I got too into IT4. However I cannot be so when it comes to this guy. I want him to be there when they hoist banner 18 (and 19 as well). He is perfect for the team and the city.

May he get more awards and finish his career in Boston. Marcus Smarf forever.
Smurf or not, concur with this.
 

bosox79

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He's incredibly easy to cheer for when he's hitting 3s at a league average %. That was his only real flaw.
 

Jimbodandy

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He's incredibly easy to cheer for when he's hitting 3s at a league average %. That was his only real flaw.
While I agree that his 3pt is very satisfying, I think that we stake way too much on that one number.

He was 75 for 249 last year (.301). If he hit 91 instead, it would have been league average (.365). That's 16 more conversions, one every five games, for a total of 48 points on the year. It's not that material.

Even his terrible .253 year, getting to league average would have netted the team 72 total points, one more basket every 3ish games.
 

lovegtm

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While I agree that his 3pt is very satisfying, I think that we stake way too much on that one number.

He was 75 for 249 last year (.301). If he hit 91 instead, it would have been league average (.365). That's 16 more conversions, one every five games, for a total of 48 points on the year. It's not that material.

Even his terrible .253 year, getting to league average would have netted the team 72 total points, one more basket every 3ish games.
That one number dictates how closely he’s guarded and stops him from getting Tony Allen’d. It’s really, really critical for his place in an offensive ecosystem.
 

Jimbodandy

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That one number dictates how closely he’s guarded and stops him from getting Tony Allen’d. It’s really, really critical for his place in an offensive ecosystem.
That's a fair POV. If I weren't a lazy bastard, I'd compare how close he is being covered on those attempts compared to last year. The eyes tell me that he's launching with the same confidence and rough rate as he always has, and I suspect that he's being covered the same. But I don't know.
 

lovegtm

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That's a fair POV. If I weren't a lazy bastard, I'd compare how close he is being covered on those attempts compared to last year. The eyes tell me that he's launching with the same confidence and rough rate as he always has, and I suspect that he's being covered the same. But I don't know.
Yes, he was being closed out on weirdly hard before, given his poor shooting. I think the fear was always that teams would optimize that out in the playoffs, given time to prepare. I feel a lot more comfortable about him as a starter on a championship team with that concern out of the picture.
 

chilidawg

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While I agree that his 3pt is very satisfying, I think that we stake way too much on that one number.

He was 75 for 249 last year (.301). If he hit 91 instead, it would have been league average (.365). That's 16 more conversions, one every five games, for a total of 48 points on the year. It's not that material.

Even his terrible .253 year, getting to league average would have netted the team 72 total points, one more basket every 3ish games.
But if those extra 3's get bunched into one game every 10 (as they seem to with Smart), it might lead to 3 or 4 extra wins. Not to mention the benefit of spacing as noted above.
 

JakeRae

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While I agree that his 3pt is very satisfying, I think that we stake way too much on that one number.

He was 75 for 249 last year (.301). If he hit 91 instead, it would have been league average (.365). That's 16 more conversions, one every five games, for a total of 48 points on the year. It's not that material.

Even his terrible .253 year, getting to league average would have netted the team 72 total points, one more basket every 3ish games.
The difference between a .250 and a .300 hitter is about 1 hit every 6 games. It’s not that material.

Also, the premise, and my baseball analogy, ignores that Smart shoots a lot more threes this year. It’s probably reasonable to assume a causal relationship, that is, he is taking more threes because he is shooting better. The net effect of his improved shooting is that he’s going to finish the year with probably 30-35 more threes than he’s ever made before. That’s over an additional point per game and all his shooting points are now efficient points instead of inefficient points. It’s a massive massive difference.
 
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the moops

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ignores that Smart shoots a lot more threes this year. It’s probably reasonable to assume a causal relationship, that is, he is taking more threes because he is shooting better.
He is taking threes at a slightly lower rate than last year. 7.5 per 100 possessions vs 7.7 per 100 possessions
 

NomarsFool

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But if those extra 3's get bunched into one game every 10 (as they seem to with Smart), it might lead to 3 or 4 extra wins. Not to mention the benefit of spacing as noted above.
It may have happened only once, or most painfully once, but I remember one game this year where the defense was playing way off Smart, daring him to shoot 3s in crunchtime, and he was doing exactly what they wanted (hoisting up and missing 3s).

That said, his shooting has gotten much better. But I disagree that when he wasn't shooting well it didn't matter. I really believe it did, just like I believe Morris went from being one of the most valuable players on the team (last Fall) to one of the least valuable players.
 

chilidawg

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It may have happened only once, or most painfully once, but I remember one game this year where the defense was playing way off Smart, daring him to shoot 3s in crunchtime, and he was doing exactly what they wanted (hoisting up and missing 3s).

That said, his shooting has gotten much better. But I disagree that when he wasn't shooting well it didn't matter. I really believe it did, just like I believe Morris went from being one of the most valuable players on the team (last Fall) to one of the least valuable players.
Making shots at a high percentage is a highly valuable skill.
 

JakeRae

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He is taking threes at a slightly lower rate than last year. 7.5 per 100 possessions vs 7.7 per 100 possessions
This is correct. I mistakenly only looked at raw attempts last year and forgot to adjust for games missed last year. I don’t think my other points are impacted by that mistake.
 

DannyDarwinism

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He’s been shit-tweeting about dominating 8-year olds at dodgeball for a YMCA charity event. Dude is the best.

 

lovegtm

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He’s been shit-tweeting about dominating 8-year olds at dodgeball for a YMCA charity event. Dude is the best.

If he had just quoted Dodgeball, it would have been mildly funny. However, the brutally simple, declarative opening ("I pegged and eliminated six 8 year-olds.") has a great Caesar/Napoleon/Genghis Khan feel to it.
 

TFisNEXT

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If they could get him back by game 3 next Friday, that could be a game-changer in the series.
 

JCizzle

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O/U 15 seconds before he's laying out on the floor in his first game back. I think he hit way under last year in the playoffs.