Getting Smart with Statistics

Big John

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What problems does Doncic solve? He shot the same 30% as Smart behind the arc last season against Non-NBA length and close out quickness.
You don't draft Doncic to become the next Korver. You draft him to run the offense and to create easy shots for others with his penetration and passing. Can Fox run an NBA offense? I'll believe it when I see it.
 

lovegtm

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What problems does Doncic solve? He shot the same 30% as Smart behind the arc last season against Non-NBA length and close out quickness.
He's a 19 year-old who shot 80%ish for free throws and has a nice stroke. I would happily take a sizeable bet that Doncic is shooting over 37% from 3 by his 3rd season.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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As others have noted, that’s really looking like agent malpractice for turning down that extension if it was really 4 years and greater than $11 million per.
 

cheech13

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As others have noted, that’s really looking like agent malpractice for turning down that extension if it was really 4 years and greater than $11 million per.
Malpractice? The following guards signed four year-deals for as much or more last summer: Tim Hardaway, Patty Mills, Dion Waiters, and Tony Snell. Even taking into account that this summer would be tighter money-wise an $11MM per year deal is hardly so robust that you jump at it and forego free agency all together.

Agent malpractice is Nerlens Noel turning down $70 million and signing for the veteran's minimum, or Demarcus Cousins turning down $40 million AFTER his Achilles injury.
 
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JakeRae

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I would pass on anything but the QO. Keep the cap space open next year as a contingency for Kyrie leaving.
As others have pointed out, even if Kyrie leaves, we won't have enough cap space next year to do anything all that meaningful with it. If Kyrie leaves, the best path forward for Boston is almost certainly having Smart and Rozier on the team on new contracts.
 

bosox79

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As others have pointed out, even if Kyrie leaves, we won't have enough cap space next year to do anything all that meaningful with it. If Kyrie leaves, the best path forward for Boston is almost certainly having Smart and Rozier on the team on new contracts.
Unless Horford bolts too.
 

BigSoxFan

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As others have pointed out, even if Kyrie leaves, we won't have enough cap space next year to do anything all that meaningful with it. If Kyrie leaves, the best path forward for Boston is almost certainly having Smart and Rozier on the team on new contracts.
This is where Ainge has a lot more information than we do because Kyrie's decision next summer will have a very material impact on this franchise, perhaps as early as this summer as it might impact their decision on Smart.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He's a 19 year-old who shot 80%ish for free throws and has a nice stroke. I would happily take a sizeable bet that Doncic is shooting over 37% from 3 by his 3rd season.
It depends how he is utilized. If you play Doncic off the ball and he's able to catch-and-shoot I agree that he will improve on last years numbers. If he is being asked to initiate or run an offense the struggles in creating separation and poor shot selection that plagued him this past year against lesser athletes is going to be a continuing problem for him.

I like him as an off-the-ball complementary wing who can be a secondary ball handler and passer. This is where he has a chance to make the greatest impact which is likely how Dallas will utilize him. If another team drafted him to be their lead guard and run a team he would have been destined to be a bust imo.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Can Horford leave after year 3? If so, why would he? Is he going to get max dollars somewhere else?
Yes, his 4 year deal included a player option after Year 3. I'd expect him to opt-out for sure to secure additional years on his deal...….that doesn't mean that he won't already have a deal from Ainge already in place to add a year or two. The question then becomes whether Horford wants more long-term security which I don't expect him to receive from Ainge.
 

nighthob

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Yes, his 4 year deal included a player option after Year 3. I'd expect him to opt-out for sure to secure additional years on his deal...….that doesn't mean that he won't already have a deal from Ainge already in place to add a year or two. The question then becomes whether Horford wants more long-term security which I don't expect him to receive from Ainge.
I’ll part ways with you there, no one’s going to throw Horford a max deal then, and I suspect that he’s going to want to play for the defending champions, even if it means taking a little less.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’ll part ways with you there, no one’s going to throw Horford a max deal then, and I suspect that he’s going to want to play for the defending champions, even if it means taking a little less.
I agree with this. Nobody is going to offer an aging Horford a max even though his game projects to age well. Even if he wants to remain in Boston and/or take less.....he'd still be likely, and smart, to opt-out of his current deal after Year 3 to accomplish this.
 

the moops

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I am skeptical that Horfrord opts out of his 34 million dollars. BOS would have to offer something like 4/105 or something for him to even think about it, right? I could see him easily getting a 3/80 or something the following year, so it needs to be close to that total (114) for him to consider.
 

benhogan

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Just back from Vegas Summer League, definitely worth it for any of you NBA junkies out there.

Spoke to my friend that is the cap guy/Director of Ops for a Western Conf team about Marcus Smart. My friend has been active this Summer but they are capped out and not in the running for Marcus. His 2 cents on Smart situation was this: teams have the right to be stubborn during restricted free agency. I asked him why does Exum get love day 1 (3 for $33M) and Smart doesn't get a sniff? His answer was the Jazz value Exum WAY MORE than the Celtics value Smart. He also added that Smart's agent is working really hard to get some interest, so its wait and see.

So no real actual news there, but I got a sense that the Celtics are sticking with the QO.
 

BigSoxFan

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Just back from Vegas Summer League, definitely worth it for any of you NBA junkies out there.

Spoke to my friend that is the cap guy/Director of Ops for a Western Conf team about Marcus Smart. My friend has been active this Summer but they are capped out and not in the running for Marcus. His 2 cents on Smart situation was this: teams have the right to be stubborn during restricted free agency. I asked him why does Exum get love day 1 (3 for $33M) and Smart doesn't get a sniff? His answer was the Jazz value Exum WAY MORE than the Celtics value Smart. He also added that Smart's agent is working really hard to get some interest, so its wait and see.

So no real actual news there, but I got a sense that the Celtics are sticking with the QO.
Thanks for the update. Seems pretty clear here that Ainge is not likely to budge unless Smart shows a willingness to agree to a team-friendly long-term deal. I think it's the right approach since we'll have Rozier's RFA rights next summer as a backup plan if Kyrie unexpectedly bolts.
 

benhogan

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Thanks for the update. Seems pretty clear here that Ainge is not likely to budge unless Smart shows a willingness to agree to a team-friendly long-term deal. I think it's the right approach since we'll have Rozier's RFA rights next summer as a backup plan if Kyrie unexpectedly bolts.
Ainge/Zarren/Wyc are shrewd cold-hearted mercenaries, the rest of the League is cognizant of that. It's amazing how many teams/executives act like utter buffoons with such a tight cap.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I am skeptical that Horfrord opts out of his 34 million dollars. BOS would have to offer something like 4/105 or something for him to even think about it, right? I could see him easily getting a 3/80 or something the following year, so it needs to be close to that total (114) for him to consider.
It doesn't make sense for a player of his age to delay what will still be a good-sized multi-year deal and risking that $80m (I'm just going with your future for sale of discussion) on his Age 34 season. What if he had an injury now he'd be entering FA at 35 coming off an injury? He would be foolish not to lock up as many guaranteed years at as young an age as possible......which is why an opt-out seems like the only logical play on his part to me.
 

RedOctober3829

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Source: Several teams - inc the #Grizzlies and #Nets - have inquired about a S-T w/the #Celtics for RFA Marcus Smart, who has already met with Brooklyn. Source also says that Boston has had zero communication or contact w/Smart.

What would a S+T look like with either team? I'd be asking for either Joe Harris straight up or both D'Angelo Russell and Hollis-Jefferson from Brooklyn. From Memphis, I'd want Jaren Jackson and JayMychal Green.
 
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Swedgin

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Source: Several teams - inc the #Grizzlies and #Nets - have inquired about a S-T w/the #Celtics for RFA Marcus Smart, who has already met with Brooklyn. Source also says that Boston has had zero communication or contact w/Smart.

What would a S+T look like with either team? I'd be asking for either Joe Harris straight up or both D'Angelo Russell and Hollis-Jefferson from Brooklyn. From Memphis, I'd want Jaren Jackson and JayMychal Green.
When is the last time a RFA was signed and traded in these circumstances (i.e. not part of a larger deal as salary filler)?
 

JCizzle

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I think BRobb has it right:

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2018/07/10/taking-stock-marcus-smart-saga-around-league/

2) Common theory: Smart’s agent is trying to drum up interest for the point guard with leaks: After a report of the Kings preparing an offer turned out to be hearsay, a couple of league executives told BSJ that they believe Smart’s representation is trying to make the Celtics budge on their hardline stance in negotiations by drumming up reports of impending offers from different teams
...

Smart’s reps, according to two league executives, have not adjusted their expectations to the market realities and now are doing their best attempts at damage control by “lowering” their demands. That’s a tactic that will not bear fruit, despite their public posturing. They badly miscalculated what the market would look like last fall and are going to cost their client millions in the process.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Ainge specifically came out and said he called Marcus to check-in in order to counteract that exact thing. If anyone won’t be played it’s Ainge.
 

steveluck7

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Agent malpractice is Nerlens Noel turning down $70 million and signing for the veteran's minimum, or Demarcus Cousins turning down $40 million AFTER his Achilles injury.
Well, Smart is represented by Happy Walters, the same agent who was advising Nerlens Noel when he turned down the $70 million. I wouldn’t rule out gross incompetence in this situation.
 

lovegtm

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It seems like Marcus, unfortunately, hired some really dumb guys as agents. Not dumb as in "I don't like them", but dumb as in "would do very poorly on an IQ test." I feel sort of bad for him to be honest, since he's gotten horrible advice and it's too late to change representation.

I mean, when your agent's big power play is to leak rumors that another team might make an RFA offer, you're not dealing with the sharpest knives in the drawer.
 

Van Everyman

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It seems like Marcus, unfortunately, hired some really dumb guys as agents. Not dumb as in "I don't like them", but dumb as in "would do very poorly on an IQ test." I feel sort of bad for him to be honest, since he's gotten horrible advice and it's too late to change representation.

I mean, when your agent's big power play is to leak rumors that another team might make an RFA offer, you're not dealing with the sharpest knives in the drawer.
Let’s see Marcus get no actual offers before high-fiving each other. It’s still early.
 

Big John

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It's easy to criticize Smart and his agent for completely misreading the market, but NBA owners have handed out many millions to much less deserving players.

I don't want to see him leave. He's one of the few players who almost routinely does unexpected things, from diving on the floor for a steal when the other team is attempting to roll the ball up, to getting up from flat on his back with a ninja move. He's entertaining.
 

BigSoxFan

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Let’s see Marcus get no actual offers before high-fiving each other. It’s still early.
There are like 4 teams with cap space and none of them are reported to be interested. His last chance before coming back to the QO is seemingly to try to drum up interest in a S&T but that adds additional complexity since the other team would have to have something Ainge wants.

I think it’s only a matter of time before he accepts the QO and tries again next summer.
 

the moops

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Grizzlies have very few contracts that Ainge would be interested in and Green/Jackson would be the two that come closest to matching salaries. Nets could use a lot of cap space to acquire Smart but Ainge needs an asset or two to make him want to trade Smart.
I am not quite sure how to respond.
 

benhogan

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It's easy to criticize Smart and his agent for completely misreading the market, but NBA owners have handed out many millions to much less deserving players.

I don't want to see him leave. He's one of the few players who almost routinely does unexpected things, from diving on the floor for a steal when the other team is attempting to roll the ball up, to getting up from flat on his back with a ninja move. He's entertaining.
Agreed. I don't want to see Marcus go BUT
Happy Walters completely misread RFA and how Danny & Co. would operate. The Celtics aren't in the business of handing out overpriced long-dated contracts in a buyers market.

Banking on NBA owners/Executives to continue to write "undeserving" contracts isn't a clever strategy, especially to an RFA.

the proverb Once bitten, twice shy applies here and I'd expect all those NBA owners burned by contracts handed out to Mozgov, Dang, Turner, Thompson, Batum, Hill, Plumlee, etc will be less inclined to hand out "undeserving" deals in the future.

anyways 1980s glam rock band Great White does a much better job describing the effects of signing overpriced free agents then myself.

 
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BigSoxFan

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Grizzlies have very few contracts that Ainge would be interested in and Green/Jackson would be the two that come closest to matching salaries. Nets could use a lot of cap space to acquire Smart but Ainge needs an asset or two to make him want to trade Smart.
I think you've just described why a S&T with the Nets and Grizzlies ain't happening. Neither team is going to give up anything of value for Marcus Smart, certainly not a Russell or recent top 4 pick.
 

Big John

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I'm not advocating an overpay for Smart. I'm advocating a fair market multi-year offer. If he turns that down, fine, he can play for the QO and try again next year. I just don't want to drive the kid out of town by insulting him with a lowball offer.
 

benhogan

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I'm not advocating an overpay for Smart. I'm advocating a fair market multi-year offer. If he turns that down, fine, he can play for the QO and try again next year. I just don't want to drive the kid out of town by insulting him with a lowball offer.
So you're advocating the Celtics should bid against themselves. Thus giving Marcus and Happy the option to shop the Celtics offer around to other NBA teams to see if the other teams will beat it. Danny/Wyc/Zarren are better off letting teams like the Knicks and Sacremento do things like that.

In RFA, a fair market multi-year offer comes from another NBA team. Then the Celtics get the OPTION to match it or decline it.

BTW Anything offered below $12-14M/yr would be an insult to Smart.
"To be honest, I'm worth more than $12-14 million," Smart told Jackie MacMullan of ESPN. "Just for the things I do on the court that don't show up on the stat sheet. You don't find guys like that. I always leave everything on the court, every game. Tell me how many other players can say that."
 

Big John

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So you're advocating the Celtics should bid against themselves. Thus giving Marcus and Happy the option to shop the Celtics offer around to other NBA teams to see if the other teams will beat it.
Is there another team that currently has the cap space to make Smart an offer above the non-taxpayer MLE? I don't think so, which means there are no teams to which Smart can shop an offer starting at more than $9M. And the Celtics have no incentive to do a sign and trade unless there is a trade proposal they can't refuse.

So let's say Ainge plays hardball and forces Smart to accept the QO. Then what? Maybe the time to lock him up is now, because next year he's unrestricted and its a crap shoot. You are bidding against next year's potential suitors, not against this year's suitors or against yourself.

If you don't particularly value Smart-- he certainly has his detractors here and elsewhere-- then it doesn't matter what you do.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Is there another team that currently has the cap space to make Smart an offer above the non-taxpayer MLE? I don't think so, which means there are no teams to which Smart can shop an offer starting at more than $9M. And the Celtics have no incentive to do a sign and trade unless there is a trade proposal they can't refuse.

So let's say Ainge plays hardball and forces Smart to accept the QO. Then what? Maybe the time to lock him up is now, because next year he's unrestricted and its a crap shoot. You are bidding against next year's potential suitors, not against this year's suitors or against yourself.

If you don't particularly value Smart-- he certainly has his detractors here and elsewhere-- then it doesn't matter what you do.
Who are his detractors? I've been as adamant as anyone on this board for over a year that Ainge isn't going to pay Smart to a big long-term deal. It isn't because I don't value Smart the player......it is because I don't (and I don't feel Ainge does) overpay for the role he'll be filling moving forward as well as the long-term opportunity cost with us needing to sign as many as 5 better players to larger deals during the course of Smart's contract while factoring in the deadly repeated tax which wouldn't allow this to happen.

Ainge already made his play in not valuing Smart's role like Utah did Exum's or Chicago with LaVine. His play was the QO and now it's on Smart to find an offer. It's still early but as of right now Ainge is winning his QO bet.
 

Big John

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Would you sign Smart to a long-term deal starting at the non-taxpayer MLE? I doubt if Smart would accept that, but it's the staring point, isn't it? If that's too rich for you, then you may value Smart as a player, but not enough to keep him around.

I agree that Ainge has made his play and will probably "win" this negotiation when Smart accepts the QO. Whether it's a win long term remains to be seen.