CBA guys here…..what does a Giannis to Miami deal look like or is it even doable using some basic rebuild assumptions of the Bucks wanting back some younger talents such as Herro, Jaquez and Jovic?
Sticking Rozier and Duncan Robinson outside the 3-pt line w Giannis, Playoff Jimmy and Bam could be troublesome.
It would be very hard, and is really only possible in the offseason, because right now, BOTH teams are over the 1st apron and limited to 1-to-1 salary matching, and the Bucks are over the 2nd apron so they can't aggregate salaries, so it could only work if Miami just happened to have a mix of contracts that added up to Giannis's exact salary, to the dollar (which unsurprisingly, they don't that I see).
Next offseason, Miami will still be over 1st apron, and Giannis's salary bumps to $54m, and Miami would need to send out 100% (or more) of that amount.
The model for a legal deal would be similar to what the Knicks had to do in the KAT trade, probably with at least one additional team beyond Bucks/Heat that receives pick value to take on salaries via space/an exception (that's a little easier now that the MLE can be used as a trade exception, but still makes things more complicated).
Milwaukee is technically $6m under the tax line for next year right now, so THEY could take back more than Gianni's $54m salary to make the deal work on Miami's side. But that's without a new contract for Brook Lopez, who even in a rebuilding situation, they at least might want to be able to S&T somewhere to get something back. So they're not going to hard-cap themselves at the 1st apron in a deal where they send Giannis out AND have to renounce Bird Rights to Lopez. (Even further complicating things, Portis and Connaughton both have player options, which I'd expect both to pick up, but they're low enough they might not, and they're also the only salaries above $3m on the roster, which they might need depending on how matching happens on Miami's side).
Herro, Jaquez, Jovic only total $39m next year, so Miami is still $15m short of matching, and the only realistic way to get there is to also include Duncan Robinson. But he makes $20m, so he might need to go to a 3rd team. Or if the Bucks take him, they would want to shed additional salary so they don't have to eat the $5m extra. They only realistic option there is Connaughton's $9m if he picks up that player option, so HE would need to go to a 3rd team, while the Bucks take the 4 Heat guys.
At that point, I'm not convinced that's enough return value for the Bucks, so they'd also want multiple picks. But Miami's 1sts are encumbered through 2028, so they can only send 2 outright, all in the 2029-2032 years, plus swaps I guess. Those far-future picks could be pretty valuable to the Bucks, but it's a LONG time to wait for much of the upside value of trading their franchise guy for three good young players who don't appear to have star-level upside.
Then there'd be second-order stuff for the Bucks, too, like having Dame at $54m+$58m player option on a rebuilding team. And what to do about Brook's free agency, with no other centers on the roster and already up against the tax line, again for a rebuilding team. They'd have a couple bigger expiring deals on Middleton, likely D.Robinson, etc. to give them flexibility. But it's a LOT, and would be very all be very complicated in agregate.
I think it's likely that the Bucks could find a different suitor who would offer just as much young player+pick value, but with a less complicated/more financially favorable deal structure. Giannis is still GOOD, even as he begins to show his age.
