General NBA season thread: 24-25 edition

Kliq

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It's simple imo: TS% + volume + assists as a shortcut for actual basketball analysis.

A lot of these people are hardworking grinders who aren't that smart (in terms of raw IQ processing power), and so they latch on to various analytical models.
I think it's probably not as simple as you describe but your theory is on the right path. It's amazing how universal it feels, and how few major voices seem to push back on it and pump up Tatum.

I was having a conversation with some non-SoSH people during the Olympics when Tatum wasn't playing, and I stated that Tatum was the best player on Team USA--and people reacted like that was a CRAZY thing to say--but when pushed to name someone better, the best they could do was say LeBron or Durant.

Tatum has been disrespected more than any other player coming off their first title than I can remember, and the weird thing is, the Celtics as a team are highly respected. They are the betting favorites to repeat as champs on top of pretty much any power ranking you can find. But Tatum seems discounted--and obviously it helps that he has great teammates, but I can't recall any other player having their accomplishments so discounted coming off a title win. Maybe Durant after he won with the Warriors, but that was a totally different situation.
 

InstaFace

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SGA getting a path to pretty consistently being rated higher than Tatum in all these rankings, and being the MVP favorite while Tatum seems rarely mentioned, is really baffling and seems like some kind of weird NBA analyst-group think. It's not like he plays in a huge market or is a particularly flashy player.
Maybe they're ranking positive contract asset value :)
 

Euclis20

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Assuming that defense counts, and availability counts.

Also, Jokic is only 29, and I think his resume pretty much holds up too. But it IS a bit crazy that all of Jokic, Giannis, and Doncic have only 1 Finals appearance each, and Embiid and SGA of course have zero, whereas Tatum is a fluky ankle sprain away from probably having three (and Brown as well obviously).
For sure, I just think an argument can be made that it's Luka. He's got the stats, some absolutely killer moments, and a couple of deep runs, and he's just 25.

It is definitely a odd how there is relatively little finals equity at the top of the rankings. The last 6 MVPs have only two combined trips to the finals, historically pretty weak.

It's simple imo: TS% + volume + assists as a shortcut for actual basketball analysis.

A lot of these people are hardworking grinders who aren't that smart (in terms of raw IQ processing power), and so they latch on to various analytical models.
I'll give people some credit and point out that it's also the fact that he's the best player by a mile on what is likely to be no worse than the 3rd best team in the league. The gap between Tatum and Brown is significantly smaller than the gap between SGA and Chet or J-Dub (8 spots separate Tatum/Brown on the ringer rankings while 31 spots separate SGA/J-Dub), whomever is considered their #2. For the first time in his professional life he's gonna be on a team with expectations, and if he actually leads his team to a 1 seed in a loaded west and he's the only all-star, it's hard to argue with him as the MVP favorite (assuming similar numbers from last year).

On the other hand if they disappoint either in the regular season (not finishing with a top 3 seed) or in the playoffs (not getting to the WCF), his stock will drop because that's just how it is. He's still considered the hot new thing, doesn't matter that he's just 4 months younger than Tatum.
 

the moops

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Yeah I don't hate this list. Curry might be a tad too high, he played 70+ games last year for the first time since 2017 and looked really tired post-ASB when the Warriors really needed wins, but that's the biggest thing that jumps out for me.
Point probably still stands, but Curry did play a 70+ game pace in both the shortened covid years
 

ifmanis5

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James Harden committed the most turnovers in a season with 464 turnovers in 2016-17. He may break that record again this year.
 

Euclis20

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Yep, misread the years. So it was just one year, 20-21 where he was on a 70+ game pace
Fair enough, but as you note, the point probably still stands. He's grouped with Lebron and Durant for most of these rankings discussions, but he's significantly smaller and carries a far bigger workload (he's the only one that doesn't play with a second star, and he was 7th in usage last year compared with 21st and 22nd for Lebron and Durant). Neither are his fault, but both are why I'd bet on both Durant and KD having a lesser chance of breaking down in the upcoming season.

Medical retirement. Please.
I don't remember which media member said it, but he's Brandon Roy, if Roy had kept trying to play through his career ending knee injuries. Just depressing (and absolutely validates the Clippers' decision to let George go, this was just never going to work out).
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think it's probably not as simple as you describe but your theory is on the right path. It's amazing how universal it feels, and how few major voices seem to push back on it and pump up Tatum.

I was having a conversation with some non-SoSH people during the Olympics when Tatum wasn't playing, and I stated that Tatum was the best player on Team USA--and people reacted like that was a CRAZY thing to say--but when pushed to name someone better, the best they could do was say LeBron or Durant.

Tatum has been disrespected more than any other player coming off their first title than I can remember, and the weird thing is, the Celtics as a team are highly respected. They are the betting favorites to repeat as champs on top of pretty much any power ranking you can find. But Tatum seems discounted--and obviously it helps that he has great teammates, but I can't recall any other player having their accomplishments so discounted coming off a title win. Maybe Durant after he won with the Warriors, but that was a totally different situation.
When the two better players play your same general position and fill essentially the same role it isn't that hard to see why he did play big minutes. Couple that with failing to make a single jumper, shooting one open 3 from the corner off the side of the backboard and anyone without a Celtics bias could see that he wasn't right after a long season and playoffs. So in that sense it was kinda crazy to expect him to play more when he didn't perform as well as others who are also named LeBron and Durant. At what point should the coach be playing All-NBA players who are performing better than you?
 

snowmanny

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There’s a difference between saying it was a reasonable game-time decision to not play a worn down out of sorts Tatum in the international tournament* and saying it’s crazy to think he’s was the best NBA player on the team.

Edit-*especially in the role that Kerr was employing him edit2 as SteveF said.
 
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SteveF

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Yep. Tatum's jumpshot was broken. He wasn't all that playable, especially given the off ball roll he would have had.

Edit: Though truth be told, there are a lot of things I could say about various players in the Olympics that fans of those players wouldn't want to hear. And Tatum isn't particularly high on that list given his issues were almost certainly temporary.
 

Kliq

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If you put Tatum in the LeBron role where he just got to bring the ball up every time and decide everything that happens, instead of just sitting in the corner like Sam Hauser, he would have been fine.
 

jmcc5400

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If you put Tatum in the LeBron role where he just got to bring the ball up every time and decide everything that happens, instead of just sitting in the corner like Sam Hauser, he would have been fine.
I think that's right - but you can't really fault Kerr for going with LeBron. Or at least I can't.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If you put Tatum in the LeBron role where he just got to bring the ball up every time and decide everything that happens, instead of just sitting in the corner like Sam Hauser, he would have been fine.
Why would you use Tatum in this role when he's clearly not himself when you have arguably the greatest NBA player of all time and arguably the greatest FIBA player of all time ahead of him? I love Tatum but can recognize that on that particular team at that particular time he wasn't the best guy for the job.
 

InstaFace

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Why would you use Tatum in this role when he's clearly not himself when you have arguably the greatest NBA player of all time and arguably the greatest FIBA player of all time ahead of him? I love Tatum but can recognize that on that particular team at that particular time he wasn't the best guy for the job.
Because Lebron wasn't going to play 40 minutes a game. If they just put in Tatum every time Lebron sat, and had him be the understudy in the exact same role, it probably would've worked out. Tatum's not the passer Lebron is, but he's very good. He doesn't quite have the downhill driving strength Lebron has (few besides Giannis do), but he makes up for it a bit with better agility. He's a better 3-point shooter than Lebron. And to Kliq's point, he's gotten enough better at reading the game and making the right play that he can be that sort of orchestrating point-forward
 

HomeRunBaker

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Because Lebron wasn't going to play 40 minutes a game. If they just put in Tatum every time Lebron sat, and had him be the understudy in the exact same role, it probably would've worked out. Tatum's not the passer Lebron is, but he's very good. He doesn't quite have the downhill driving strength Lebron has (few besides Giannis do), but he makes up for it a bit with better agility. He's a better 3-point shooter than Lebron. And to Kliq's point, he's gotten enough better at reading the game and making the right play that he can be that sort of orchestrating point-forward
He was hitting side of backboards on open looks. He missed every single one. He wasn't better shooting 3's than the ball boy much less LeBron. It is what it is. Sure he "could" have done those things as could others have too but why try to recreate something LeBron and Durant are already doing?
 

InstaFace

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He was hitting side of backboards on open looks. He missed every single one. He wasn't better shooting 3's than the ball boy much less LeBron. It is what it is. Sure he "could" have done those things as could others have too but why try to recreate something LeBron and Durant are already doing?
If you think Tatum's value-add to a team is mostly from his shooting, then sure, that's a good argument against. If you think he does all the other non-shooting things that help a team win - in a way very similar to what Lebron does - then all the rest of that is very helpful to a Team USA that has plenty of shooting, and you can trust that he won't take very many 3s and the ones he does, variance will work it out sooner or later.
 

lovegtm

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He was hitting side of backboards on open looks. He missed every single one. He wasn't better shooting 3's than the ball boy much less LeBron. It is what it is. Sure he "could" have done those things as could others have too but why try to recreate something LeBron and Durant are already doing?
The idea is that Tatum was the best on-ball guy not named LeBron on the team. Definitely in a comparative advantage sense, since Steph and Durant are both amazing in off-ball roles.

The dude just came off a dominant title run with a broken jumper on a loaded team, being the primary on-ball guy. The role would have been identical, and has proven super effective.
 

RorschachsMask

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Tatum is probably the best creating wing I’ve seen outside of LeBron. I’m too young to have seen anyone before the late 90s, so somewhat disqualifying.

Raw assists and assist percentage don’t come close to telling the whole story. The team is loaded with quick decision makers, so the ball consistently moves more than just one time. He’s super creative, and there’s very little wasted movement. I’d be pretty surprised if he doesn’t average 6 assists per game this season, he’s really leaning into the playmaker role.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Gambling unders on two-way or exhibit 10 contract players will be banned on major sportsbooks, a response to the Porter gambling scandal.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5854024/2024/10/18/nba-sports-betting-10-day-contract-players/

Major sports books will no longer offer proposition bets on NBA players who are making the least amount of money, after months of discussion between the league and its gambling partners, multiple league and industry sources told The Athletic.
Per an agreement between the NBA and its betting partners, including FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM, no “under” bets will be offered on any player on either a two-way or 10-day contract.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Mikal Bridges is now 2-18 on the preseason (0-9 tonight) from three. The whispers about his fucked up jumpshot release will get a little louder. It really does look like he's got some kinda Bill Cartwright wrist action now.
0-10 now.

He definitely changed his shot as his release is noticeably higher. Not many people would recommend doing that. Will be interesting to see if it works.

View: https://twitter.com/bballbreakdown/status/1845875720368586853/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1845875720368586853&currentTweetUser=bballbreakdown
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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HomeRunBaker

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KOC in shambles.
Wasn’t Hayes getting minutes over Ivey last year? Real basketball terrorism by Monty.
I never liked Hayes but he was actually looking good early in the year last year and Ivey, as I talked about back then, was running around aiimlessly and clueless. Once he began getting 30 mpg he seemed to find himself better and his upside has to still be high with that athleticism but the kid still has a lot to figure out....but if he does the sky is the limit. But yeah once Hayes fell off he lost his job and probably the last time he plays significant minutes in this league. The Hayes/Fultz backcourt is going to look good in the French League.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Bucks are really going all-in on the Lillard window I guess. Supposedly they are looking to move my binky, MarJon Beauchamp for a 3-and-D wing. He needs a lottery team to get some minutes on to figure out his game. Kid has potential though.
 

InstaFace

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Bucks are really going all-in on the Lillard window I guess. Supposedly they are looking to move my binky, MarJon Beauchamp for a 3-and-D wing. He needs a lottery team to get some minutes on to figure out his game. Kid has potential though.
They're a couple of months late to sign Yabusele for peanuts (which was an absolute theft by Philly at a vet-min deal). I wonder what they can possibly get as a "3 and D wing" at this point.
 

lovegtm

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Bucks are really going all-in on the Lillard window I guess. Supposedly they are looking to move my binky, MarJon Beauchamp for a 3-and-D wing. He needs a lottery team to get some minutes on to figure out his game. Kid has potential though.
I mean, they have to go all out for this window. Dame is probably untradeable on that contract, they have literally no assets left besides guys like MarJon......oh, and they're $6M into the 2nd apron with a nice little $34M player option for Kris coming up next season.

No es bueno!
 

HomeRunBaker

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They're a couple of months late to sign Yabusele for peanuts (which was an absolute theft by Philly at a vet-min deal). I wonder what they can possibly get as a "3 and D wing" at this point.
I'm not much of a Yabu guy and you'd be hard pressed to find much on the market that's better. You'd probably look to a lottery team who would swap a veteran JAG for the chance to develop MarJon. Someone like Thybulle in Portland but I think he's injured, Barnes with the Spurs, etc etc. Didn't look at the numbers but that's the type of player they'd probably be trying to get.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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They're a couple of months late to sign Yabusele for peanuts (which was an absolute theft by Philly at a vet-min deal). I wonder what they can possibly get as a "3 and D wing" at this point.
Isn't Justin Holiday still available? Is there anyone available - even in a trade - who is better than he is?

Also, MIL signed Justice Winslow to an Exhibit 10 contract; see what he has left.

Draft is such a crapshoot. If MIL had just drafted Ryan Dunn . . . .https://behindthebuckpass.com/rookies-bucks-guard-aj-johnson-constantly-compared/2
 

cheech13

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Klingon last night holy shit. Play that dude. Ayton for Ingram, who says no?
It’s something I threw out last summer but word is Cronin and company feel like Ingram’s game would be bad for the development of Scoot and Sharpe.
 

Swedgin

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Suggs got done as well. 5 for 150.5M. That was in line with what most folks were projecting.

Jalen Green 3 for 106M, with third year player option. Did not see that getting done and especially with that type of structure.

No deal for Kuminga or Giddey.
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Sengun is a good bet to keep improving. But the most important fact we need to establish here is whether this contract is an overpay or an underpay. Only real ones know...