This is mostly Devil's Advocate reasoning, because I'm pretty sure I wouldn't do it if I were Milwaukee.
That said, in some ways, Beal might be the best player they can get, given what they have to offer, and their current roster/payroll situation:
- All of their available contracts probably run for two years, although if they're including Portis, and the receiving team actually likes him at $13m for next season, there's a chance he opts out. Middleton heads up that group, and he looks completely cooked physically, and is owed $34m next season.
- They can't trade a 1st until 2031, and doing that at this point, with a rapidly aging core, seems like a terrible idea.
- They're currently $6.5m over the 2nd apron, so will begin to having far-future picks trade frozen anyway, and probably more importantly from their ownership perspective, if they can't bring the payroll down, will rack up repeater tax in the near future (I tend to cynically think that the pick-freeze issue is secondary, and teams mostly want to avoid the incredibly punitive repeater tax rates at all costs, if they're not top contenders).
If a Beal trade is structured something like I assume (sending out Middleton, Portis, Connaughton, and one small salary, likely Beauchamp) they'd be able to:
- Upgrade Middleton's offense (and availability, even if Beal also misses a lot of games) with a guy who remains a legit shooter and secondary playmaker, even if he's even more of a challenge defensively. They've gotten good production out of Trent Jr. and AJ Green off the bench, and they're both even worse defensively than Beal.
- Better cover for playing a non-spacer like Andre Jackson more minutes at the 3 (and sometimes smallball4) and maybe also Delon Wright as non-scorer behind Dame at point. All of their other perimeter guys at that point would be real shooters (Dame, Beal, Green, Trent, Prince).
- The Beal trade is only possible if they complete the deal under the 2nd apron (which my proposed structure does, just barely), so it means they're saving money, and increasing future roster and payroll flexibility.
- In the future, Beal rather than Middleton/Portis/Pat still lowers the payroll next year, and keeps a 3rd useful, albeit older, wing next to Giannis and Dame rather than a further-declining Middleton.
- They can almost certainly do all of without giving up any picks (that they don't have anyway) which is the big barrier to getting anyone better than Beal, and they might even receive a (low) 1st from Phoenix for being the potentially-Beal-acceptable destination who are actually willing to take him, facilitating another move in the near future.
Big picture, Giannis is "only" 30, but he appears to be starting to break down more often, and I'm not sure they'll even want him beyond the next 2-3 years. He also has a player-option in the 2027 offseason (for 27-28), so if they decide to re-set, they'd need to trade him no later than that, and maybe 6-12 months sooner.
- Dame is 3 years older than Beal, and will be 36 by the time he comes of the books in 2027. Beal extends the Middleton salary slot to the same offseason.
- So maybe the thinking is: "Who is the best player we can get for Middleton, without sending out any picks in the trade, who lets us reduce payroll the next two years, and isn't signed longer than Dame and Giannis's opt-out in 2027?" I think there's a pretty good chance that Beal really IS the best player who meets all of that.
- Which means they stay old and talent-concentrated for this year and next year, and at that point, they make a decision about whether they can do anything else in the short-term to build around an now-aging Giannis, or if they want to trade HIM in 2026, to still recoup a huge pick return to replace the 1sts they're out through 2029. Dame and Beal are both expiring, and one year later they have a clean roster and cap sheet to start over.
- Or, if they want to ride one more year beyond that, they could wait until the 2027 deadline to make the Giannis decision, at which point Dame and Beal both float away in the immediately following off-season.
None of that is high upside, by any means. But it might be a realistic outlook on an already-old roster, who need to do whatever they can in the next two years to try and win, without any draft assets to improve, and currently over the 2nd apron this year. Then they'll
really need to make a decision on Giannis, regardless.