lol, I'm getting so sick of this guy.
but he scores 1v1, that's all that matters in case you're close late - fuck the rest of the 46 min!
General NBA season thread: 24-25 edition
- Thread starter RorschachsMask
- Start date
but he scores 1v1, that's all that matters in case you're close late - fuck the rest of the 46 min!
Ant: 51 /3 / 1 on 15-26 shooting, including 10-13 from 3P (!!!) and 11-12 FTs. He's -7 for the game.
Cade: 37 / 4 / 9 on 14-27 shooting, including 4-7 from 3P and 5-5 FTs. He's +25 for the game.
Of perhaps bigger note for MIN, Mike Conley in 15:22 was 0-3 (0-2 from 3P) with a 0 / 0 / 4 line and -22.
DET 112, MIN 94.
Cade: 37 / 4 / 9 on 14-27 shooting, including 4-7 from 3P and 5-5 FTs. He's +25 for the game.
Of perhaps bigger note for MIN, Mike Conley in 15:22 was 0-3 (0-2 from 3P) with a 0 / 0 / 4 line and -22.
DET 112, MIN 94.
6 turnovers. 1 assist. Yay ant.
I hope you’re not arguing that the 14-68 Pistons from last year have a better supporting cast for Cade than the WCF “will beat the Celts” Wolves have for Ant?
Euclis posted about Ant's monster night, which is was (10-14 from 3P is insane). However, I was just pointing out that Cade had a pretty good night himself.
As for your question:
Maybe I missed it being posted here before, but I didn't realize that Spoelestra pulled a Chris Webber the other day. Nothing is going right for MIA.
View: https://twitter.com/StephNoh/status/1856529750686101897?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1856529750686101897|twgr^1d87fb698c7bd6a6559680ce2f3b03c3486c0751|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbssports.com%2Fnba%2Fnews%2Ferik-spoelstra-pulls-a-chris-webber-costs-heat-nba-cup-game-vs-pistons-with-timeout-blunder-in-ot%2F
I'm just catching up that they suspended Butler or seven games for reasons and are exploring a trade? Not exactly polishing their asset on the way out the door. I wouldn't want that dude coming to my locker room.
That was about two months ago, but it always bears re-posting.
I don’t think the suspension changed a thing. Anyone who would take that guy in trade has already ignored a lot more red flags then that.
That was a colossal fuckup by Spo, but even after tonight's debacle and the Jimmy disaster, Miami is 17-16 and in 6th place. Herro is having a career year and might even make even be an all-star, but Bam has been pretty lousy and Jimmy wasn't nearly as impactful even when he was on the court. Their role players are all fairly meh. Honestly, it's surprising to see them as high in the standings as they are.
So the Butler to Phoenix for Beal deal has to be ready to go any minute now, right? It's the only one out there that makes any sense for both sides that I can tell.
I hope the Heat do that, but taking on two years of $50M+ for Beal seems like a nonstarter. At least with Jimmy they’re out after this year assuming he opts out like he claims.
Unless the Warriors publicly said they weren't interested to keep their young guys focused who else is there....Houston if they gave up on Sheppard? They have Brooks and Adams contracts to make that work. The Mavs would have to move most of their role players to make numbers work and for the right to pair Kyrie and Jimmy together? I can't imagine they would think that is a good idea. Denver for Jamal Murray? OKC would be in same boat as Dallas in ripping apart a large chunk of their team which hasn't been a part of Presti's M.O. Brooklyn has the contracts but how does that make any sense. I just think that a Beal for Butler swap is the most logical....again, unless Houston or Denver have soured on Sheppard or Murray. The Heat could get some draft capital in return as well to take on the extra year of Beal.
Beal for Butler is great for the Suns, but I don't think Phoenix has a single asset left they could give up, do they? They've even timeshared their outgoing swaps into fractions already -- completely strip-mined the franchise.
Houston makes a ton of sense basketball-wise, and they have lots of assets in addition to contracts. They own some Phoenix picks, by virtue of trading the Nets' draft back to them. Rockets could chop those up into whatever bites make sense for Miami.
Detroit makes some sense to me, and they have Hardaway + Harris, but they'd have to really really be in "let's make a splash" mode. Ivey's injury makes that harder to justify.
Sacramento and Memphis are two other possibilities. Sacramento doesn't really make any sense, but Sacramento gonna Sacramento. Memphis does make sense from a purely on the court basketball perspective, but I can't say whether it makes sense for them financially. I guess if they think this turns them from a fringe contender to real contender, it's a possibility.
I think Memphis probably prefers Cam Johnson even if Butler is the better player/higher upside play. (Edit: Though with OKC in on that hunt, it's hard to imagine Memphis has the assets to get him.)
I think Memphis probably prefers Cam Johnson even if Butler is the better player/higher upside play. (Edit: Though with OKC in on that hunt, it's hard to imagine Memphis has the assets to get him.)
If Bane can fix whatever completely went wrong with him this year, Memphis probably feels they have 2 creators already, so a much much cheaper elite role guy like Cam makes way more sense for them.
I don't think the Nuggets can trade Murray before the deadline due to his extension. MPJ would have to be the one to go, and that doesn't seem beneficial.
I'd be surprised if Heat want Beal at his contract and with the no-trade...he's violently overpaid and not worth it And even his 'contract slot value' is knocked out because he has that no-trade.
I had not realized until Bobby Marks noted it the other day, but Heat can have near-max cap room this offsason if Butler walks. That seriously undermines their need to move him - I had thought they needed the salary slot, but they really don't. So they are going to be looking for something of value in return, and I will be quite surprised if they think Beal consititutes value. As lovegtm noted, Phoenix has no sweeteners to add, really.
Memphis could use a 'been there, done that' guy to augment Conley but tend to agree they aren't super likely to pay the price for Butler, who is also likely a rental-only for them. Houston would be my bet, with "Jimmy does operation shutdown" also on the table for sure. I also think GS will end up sniffing around, in spite of noise to the contrary.
If you are the Lakers, would you do Rui/Reaves/Vincent/Vanderbilt for Jimmy? If you were the Heat, would you or would you also need a pick? Not a likely option, but Lebron is only going to have so many runs left.
If you are Denver, would you do MPJ for Butler? I would, but suspect they don't want Butler's ability to leave to complicate their situation going forward. No idea if Miami would find MPJ viable as a return, either.
I had not realized until Bobby Marks noted it the other day, but Heat can have near-max cap room this offsason if Butler walks. That seriously undermines their need to move him - I had thought they needed the salary slot, but they really don't. So they are going to be looking for something of value in return, and I will be quite surprised if they think Beal consititutes value. As lovegtm noted, Phoenix has no sweeteners to add, really.
Memphis could use a 'been there, done that' guy to augment Conley but tend to agree they aren't super likely to pay the price for Butler, who is also likely a rental-only for them. Houston would be my bet, with "Jimmy does operation shutdown" also on the table for sure. I also think GS will end up sniffing around, in spite of noise to the contrary.
If you are the Lakers, would you do Rui/Reaves/Vincent/Vanderbilt for Jimmy? If you were the Heat, would you or would you also need a pick? Not a likely option, but Lebron is only going to have so many runs left.
If you are Denver, would you do MPJ for Butler? I would, but suspect they don't want Butler's ability to leave to complicate their situation going forward. No idea if Miami would find MPJ viable as a return, either.
PHO has a 2031 FRP they can either swap or trade and 2 SRP picks: 2026 + 2031. At least according to this: https://valleyofthesuns.com/every-draft-pick-phoenix-suns-trade-right-now
Heat don't want Beal's contract or no-trade. Windhorst mentioned on his pod that he spoke to an executive, and the executive said something to the effect that front offices took 6 months to figure out the ramifications of the new cap and players are at least six months behind that. As you mention, the idea of losing salary slots for nothing is no longer the problem - the problem is taking on negative value contracts; that really kills teams.
From what I've seen, MIA is a hard no on Beal and has required PHO to find a third team to take him.
As for DEN, it would be an interesting trade but DEN already doesn't have enough shooting and Porter is probably their best shooter. But trading Porter (and Nnaji) might open up some cap flexibility for them. OTOH, Porter still has 3/$114 (including this year) left on his contract so that goes back to whether MIA thinks he's positive value.
Jimmy's trying to force a trade but what if no one really wants him?
(P.S. As for your MEM bit, I think you meant "Smart" not "Conley."
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I really enjoyed the end of that article: "Can the front office do anything with these picks? They somehow landed Durant, Beal and Chris Paul, so anything is possible."PHO has a 2031 FRP they can either swap or trade and 2 SRP picks: 2026 + 2031. At least according to this: https://valleyofthesuns.com/every-draft-pick-phoenix-suns-trade-right-now
Heat don't want Beal's contract or no-trade. Windhorst mentioned on his pod that he spoke to an executive, and the executive said something to the effect that front offices took 6 months to figure out the ramifications of the new cap and players are at least six months behind that. As you mention, the idea of losing salary slots for nothing is no longer the problem - the problem is taking on negative value contracts; that really kills teams.
From what I've seen, MIA is a hard no on Beal and has required PHO to find a third team to take him.
As for DEN, it would be an interesting trade but DEN already doesn't have enough shooting and Porter is probably their best shooter. But trading Porter (and Nnaji) might open up some cap flexibility for them. OTOH, Porter still has 3/$114 (including this year) left on his contract so that goes back to whether MIA thinks he's positive value.
Jimmy's trying to force a trade but what if no one really wants him?
(P.S. As for your MEM bit, I think you meant "Smart" not "Conley."
Kids, if you're willing to take on massive debt and pay huge prices, you too can have anything! Reach for the stars!
I forgot that the pick freezes apply to 2032, not 2031. That does, in fact, mean that the Suns have one insanely valuable pick to trade. The 2 2nds aren't bad either. As Miami, I'd be pretty tempted to take on Beal's contract and go for a Spo Rejuvenation Special, if I could land the 2031 (and push for one of the 2nds).
Ha, yes---Mem swapped out it's 'proven PG' guy! Thanks for catch.
I've been of the view all year that avoiding negative contracts is the single biggest goal for smart teams--even above worrying about aprons---and that is why I just don't see Beal in Miami.
I agree Denver really needs the spacing. And...they are kind of stuck asset-wise and talent-wise, so I can imagine them exploring MPJ for someone who can be more impactful in a playoff series....I don't believe they believe MPJ is a reliable playoff guy, and suspect Joker knows and has shared this belief too.
I've been of the view all year that avoiding negative contracts is the single biggest goal for smart teams--even above worrying about aprons---and that is why I just don't see Beal in Miami.
I agree Denver really needs the spacing. And...they are kind of stuck asset-wise and talent-wise, so I can imagine them exploring MPJ for someone who can be more impactful in a playoff series....I don't believe they believe MPJ is a reliable playoff guy, and suspect Joker knows and has shared this belief too.
Yeah, LaVine makes way more sense for DEN than Butler, but LaVine may cost more (who would have thought that at the beginning of the season!).
I guess you never know with Bulls---a long track record of thinking they can be a real playoff team against good analysis---but they wouldn't seem to be a great fit for Butler (the return tour?) I know you weren't specifically suggesting that.
I do think LaVine makes some sense for Denver, though doesn't seem likely either direction...they are giving up size there and don't really have it to spare
I do think LaVine makes some sense for Denver, though doesn't seem likely either direction...they are giving up size there and don't really have it to spare
I would reluctantly be OK with Smart in Miami, because (1) if anyone can keep him on the court and get value out of him it's Spo, and I want Marcus to have a long career and be happy, and (2) in no respect is Miami a real threat to us anymore so they're a lot less hateable now. I reserve the right to revisit that the first time Marcus fouls White hard at the rim, but those guys are all such good friends I really think there's nothing but love there. So hey, whatever works for Mahcus.
Speaking of Celtics Alums, I do wonder what will happen to Time Lord. He's played 4 games in the last 2 weeks, all backup minutes, but if he's back in game shape and ready for 20+ minutes a few weeks from now, there are a lot of teams who could use him, injury risks and all. And it makes absolutely no sense for Portland to keep him.
Here's some data some might be interested in.
SLEEFG% is just a shot location expected effective field goal percentage derived from shot location/frequency and league average shooting at those locations. The basic idea is to disentangle shotmaking advantages from shooting possession advantages to get a qualitative understand of how teams generate point differential.
I'd be careful comparing SLEEFG across teams, but netting out SLEEFG/A should be fine since the court factors cancel out (same statistician determining zone in each instance, so bias nets out).
Shooting "Luck" is just the difference between the actual and expected EFG/As. I use luck (could use variance) but a significant portion is obviously not luck for reasons that are obvious to all.
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bWx4P4OPz2ZIu63rHJ2ncISAwZX2ZpDJG4paieF6TO0/edit?usp=sharing
SLEEFG% is just a shot location expected effective field goal percentage derived from shot location/frequency and league average shooting at those locations. The basic idea is to disentangle shotmaking advantages from shooting possession advantages to get a qualitative understand of how teams generate point differential.
I'd be careful comparing SLEEFG across teams, but netting out SLEEFG/A should be fine since the court factors cancel out (same statistician determining zone in each instance, so bias nets out).
Shooting "Luck" is just the difference between the actual and expected EFG/As. I use luck (could use variance) but a significant portion is obviously not luck for reasons that are obvious to all.
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Couple of weeks ago, there were reports that PDX wasn't "eager" trade RWIII and wanted full value for him. E.g., this article.
They'd much rather get off Ayton. Funny, Ayton and Thybulle for Butler works, although I can't figure out who would have to throw in draft assets in this deal. Ayton + Grant for Butler, Robinson, and Kel'el Ware also works.
These aren't easy to do mid-season but with the number of players becoming available in 10 days it may be doable. Unless the Heat are going to play him after the deadline or face legal issues with the PA, who else wants Butler that has the salaries to get it done?
I can tell you who has the salaries to get a deal done but I can't tell you who wants him, other than PHO - which, as you point out, is probably the biggest sticking point for MIA.
The other constraint is that MIA owes draft picks to OKC and CHA that could be unprotected picks in 2026 and 2028, respectively, so they are constrained in their ability to blow things up as well.
You mentioned them before, but why not Houston? They've been wanting a big splash (lots of rumors around them and Durant), and this would be a big move that also preserved most of their significant asset pile for another move later. m
Their work is pretty much must-watch but this piece by TB on the ongoing increase in 3PA and its impacts is kind of essential for real NBA fans (sports radio fans can skip - this is not a grievance video).
View: https://youtu.be/LB4h8PUAqwE?si=OFm0T26nIglJEe1a
View: https://youtu.be/LB4h8PUAqwE?si=OFm0T26nIglJEe1a
He didn't say it explicitly, but it felt like his thesis was that there aren't too many threes, but, instead, there's always been too few.
Right, and the limiting factor is how good the average player is at shooting them, because the real limiting factor is "can you scare NBA coaches enough to get them to not help on 1-on-1 drives?"
I am really not convinced OK is on the hunt for CJ, but I have no information. I don't see them blowing the roof off with an offer to go from isiah Joe to CJ as a depth player.
Fair. Even when a report comes from a reputable source you have to be careful because every team looking to trade a player is going to want to suggest a team with a large amount of assets (like OKC) is in on the player to drive up the price.
I think the biggest issue for Phoenix wanting Butler is actually Beal’s no-trade clause.
I can’t see Beal wanting to go to Miami when it’s entirely his choice to stay in Phoenix instead.
And when you start to talk about shipping him to a 3rd team, I think Beal accepting a trade is even less likely, as there’s not much chance that any team that would accept him is going to be a good on court situation for Beal, and/or a city he and his family want to live in.
I can’t see Beal wanting to go to Miami when it’s entirely his choice to stay in Phoenix instead.
And when you start to talk about shipping him to a 3rd team, I think Beal accepting a trade is even less likely, as there’s not much chance that any team that would accept him is going to be a good on court situation for Beal, and/or a city he and his family want to live in.
Yeah, I think he’d agree with that. He did end with the fact that we’re seeing the most effective league wide NBA offense of all time. As I was watching it the phrase, 3 true outcomes came to mind. Layup, open three pointer or foul shots. That’s Mazzulla math.
This is particularly interesting because the Spite path is open to Miami here, as they only have to ride out the remaining half season - and, as noted, don't need to preserve the salary slot. I suspect if they suspend Butler without pay indefinitely, they'll have the league backing them up vs the union, because of how over-the-top he was in trying to shoot his way out of town. It's not an exaggeration to call it "conduct detrimental to the team". The player contract has all these terms in it for players giving their whole effort to being prepared to play, and playing, ballgames at their best ability and full focus. If Jimmy can't bring that, then the club is happy to do a mutual release, but barring that if he expects to get paid he needs to act like a professional.
Come to think of it, this is the rare situation where a small-dollar buyout of a star to save a little face might make sense for both sides here, if Riley can't find an eager trading partner at a price and talent exchange that he likes.
Although the more I watch isiah Joe play, maybe they should do it. Joe, Dieng, and the 26 OKC pick might work, Maybe through in a few 2nds . I do think if CJ goes to OKC he becomes a 6th or 7th man averaging 12 pts a night, but they can probably make the money for for this year and next before it becomes a real problem . Memphis could beat that if they want him, I wouldn't go much more if I were Presti
Joe has been pretty weak all year and is limited, and the Celtics are targeting and abusing him on the defensive end
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I think they love all of their young guys with the possibly exception of Sheppard….that’s why I mentioned the questions surrounding his future in Houston. He’d seem to be the guy that they would move but I haven’t heard anything about them giving up on him yet….but for Butler maybe they would. It’s kinda shortsighted though for what they are building.
I could be the attorney for the Players Association and win the case that a remainder of season suspension for conduct detrimental to the team that costs my player $25m or so is just slightly excessive….and the only bar I’ve ever passed is the one handing out drinks..
"if you don't work, you don't get paid" is a pretty universal rule for employees, barring edge cases like garden leave.I could be the attorney for the Players Association and win the case that a remainder of season suspension for conduct detrimental to the team that costs my player $25m or so is just slightly excessive.
That said, I'm not looking to win the arbitration award here in the Court of Port (Cellar). I'm just observing that this is one of the very rare instances where, like Jerry Seinfeld returning the jacket, we might see actions play out that are done purely for spite. Most GMs would be too terrified of the effect on player willingness to play there to do so, but Spoelstra and Riley might be more worried about morale of their other dozen players under contract, if Jimmy can get away with basically saying he doesn't want to be part of the team anymore and then gets $25M to sit around and not play basketball for half a season. It would certainly be entertaining, and the NBA's machinations of the game-behind-the-game are nothing if not routinely entertaining.
How does that quote apply here? Butler is willing to work and being told not to by Miami. We may see the 7-games cut back some nevermind the rest of the season.
Let's recap. Butler is:
1) Dogging it around the court, barely acting like he gives a shit, in a sort of union "slowdown" tactic, while also
2) Talking in press conferences about how much he hates playing on the team,
3) After saying in April that if he'd been healthy, the Heat would have sent the Celtics and Knicks home, which was followed by Riley telling the press "Jimmy Butler should keep his mouth shut if he isn't playing", i.e. show some respect to your teammates who are out there busting their asses...
4 ...all because he wants a contract extension that Riley isn't going to give him.
If he changes his tune, the Heat may well let him back in and field offers for him while having a BATNA of trying to compete this season. Hell, they're the 6 seed as of right now. But that involves #1 and #2 changing. Because #4 isn't changing, but just because he's sour about that doesn't give him a right to do #1 and #2.
That’s not how it works in the real world though. He doesn’t have to change his tune…..he just has to wait another day or two to recoup some of his lost wages once the 7-game suspension is reduced which is almost certain to happen. Suggesting a full year is like I don’t know what it is but that’s not close to reality.
Suns announce that they are removing Beal and Nurkic from the starting lineup. The hunt for a 3rd team to take on Beal is officially underway.
Agreed. Though that is a tough one - $53 mil next year and a $57mil player option the following year AND he has a full no-trade. He's still a solid rotation player, likely no more than that (he's slightly negative overall on DARKO and I believe also on EPM), and he's massively overpaid. His ability to adapt to a role on a winning team is pretty much a complete unknown at this point, and he's clearly declining overall too.
Phoenix doesn't seem to have sufficient assets to both subsidize taking on Beal and acquire Butler, and may not have enough for either. But I agree they will try! Presumably moving him out of starting lineup is part of trying to get him to accept a deal and possibly even waive that player option (can he?)
That Phoenix 2031 pick is so valuable that it could go a long way, unprotected. It would instantly become one of the most attractive assets in the league, because of how screwed the Suns are.
Brad traded a #16 to get OKC to eat 2 years of a Kemba contract that wasn't sooo different in percentage-of-cap terms.