Man, that just seems insane if you don't have an asset-management genius like Presti sitting on top of that pile.
Like, as an instructive example, consider what OKC did to build their current contender, where the key value came from:
- SGA: Paul George trade, unloading a superstar on end of his all-NBA-level years, identifying and getting the next superstar while also picking up 4.5 first-rounders and 2 pick swaps, because Kawhi had the Clippers over a barrel
- J-Dub: Selected #12 in 2022 using one of the Paul George picks
- Chet: Selected #2 in 2022 using their own draft pick because the 21-22 Thunder had tanked (went from 4th to #2 in the lottery)
- Dort: Signed as a two-way player in 2019, converted to standard contract in summer 2020, signed an above-MLE deal in summer 2022 for 4 years + team option
- Cason Wallace: 2023 Draft-night swap where Dallas sent them #10 (Wallace) + Davis Bertans for #12 (Lively) + a late 1st
- Hartenstein: Signed as an FA using cap room
None of that involved OKC shipping out any of their major draft assets (other than Paul George himself, whose trade was the source of most of them, of course), and only one of them has brought them any value when actually used (J-Dub). Their use of the Paul George picks has been as follows:
- 2021 Miami 1st (#18), originally traded in 2015 (!) by Miami to 3 other teams before LAC sent to OKC: selected Tre Mann, who was then traded on deadline day 2024 along with two 2nd-rounders for the corpse of Gordon Hayward
- 2022 LAC 1st (#12): selected J-Dub, clearly an important pillar of the roster
- 2023 Miami 1st (#18), top-14 protected: Traded back to Miami in Feb 2024* in exchange for their 2025 1st (again top-14 protected), which becomes an unprotected 2026 first if it does not convey. Good punt to increase future value, as long as Miami is a lottery team this year. Miami picked Jaime Jaquez, now a rotation player for them, though who's to say OKC would have drafted as well as that at #18.
- 2023 LAC swap rights: not conveyed
- 2024 LAC 1st (#26): traded to Dallas on deadline day 2024 for rights to swap 1sts with Dallas in 2028
- 2025 LAC swap rights: likely to convey around #20ish
- 2026 LAC 1st: likely to convey (unprotected); they owe PHI the least-favorable of OKC, LAC and HOU [5-30].
Instead, they have mostly been rearranging deckchairs and punting value into the future. Other disposals / punts of their assets:
- Jul 2019: As part of the Chris Paul / Westbrook trade (Which got them HOU's 2024 + 2026 1sts [prot 1-4] and 2021 + 2025 swap rights [prot 1-20]), acquired Houston's 2024 1st (#12); ultimately drafted Nikola Topic, the hottest prospect out of Red Star in Serbia, who had torn his ACL in April and will miss the entire 2024-25 NBA season. 2021 swap rights did not convey (HOU drafted at #2 so it was protected); 2025 swap rights will likely convey at the rate Houston is going, but not be used at the rate OKC is going; and 2026 HOU 1st [5-30] may stay or may go to PHI, per the terms of the Dec 2020 Al Horford trade.
- Jun 2023: Acquired Cason Wallace from Dallas in the Dereck Lively swap, in exchange for the least-favorable 2024 1st-rd pick out of the 4 that then they held (ultimately sent out their own #29, while keeping UTA #10 and HOU #12 and later shipping out LAC #26), which ended up going to Indiana as part of a 4-team deal.
- in the same trade, sent out a 2024 2nd (least-favorable of MIN and CHA, of which they held both), in exchange for what will probably be the 2027 Denver 1st (top-5 protected), which is a good-value move for OKC
- Feb 2024: Acquired pick-swap rights with Dallas for their 2028 1st, in exchange for the second-least-favorable 2024 1st-rd pick out of the 4 that they then held (ultimately sent out LAC #26, while keeping UTA #10, HOU #12, and having already committed OKC #29). Dallas then sent that pick to the Wizards for Gafford.
They also own, just for first rounders:
- All their own picks, except where they're sending out the least-favorable of several owned picks, which seems likelier to be their own.
- PHI 2025 1st [7-30] -> PHI 2026 1st [5-30] -> PHI 2027 1st [5-30] -> PHI 2027 2nd
- UTA 2025 1st [11-30] -> UTA 2026 1st [9-30]
- MIA 2025 1st [15-30] -> MIA 2026 1st [unprot]
- DEN 2027 [6-30] or later if DEN conveys their pick to ORL later than 2025 (Aaron Gordon trade); could convey anytime 2027-2030, or if not then 2030 2nd
- DAL 2028 swap rights, as noted
And here's my point: even despite the fact that they have room the next few years to take on a big salary or two for an upgrade, and that they clearly have the draft-pick assets to entice another team to part with a star, they have not done so. Clearly, it is harder than we realize to find a good fit with current personnel and to use those draft picks to bring them in, while staying clear of apron-related penalties of the new CBA. As best I can discern, Presti's strategy with their 1st-rounders is to either make the pick if they think it could be an impact player (like they did with Nikola Topic), or otherwise ship it out for future draft rights down the road, playing the odds that it will become a high-value pick. It hasn't involved cashing in these chips to bring in a big name.
Now, Brooklyn has an easier path to upgrading their roster than OKC does, since Brooklyn has very few players they definitely want to keep in the first place (maybe just Cam Thomas; I'm sure Claxton and Cam Johnson are available for the right deal). But to do so, they need some sort of star-player firesale to happen, where they can come in with the top bid. Something like a Lillard/Giannis breakup in Milwaukee (not happening on current evidence), or a Fox/Sabonis breakup in Sacramento - something where they can get a star who's young enough to grow into a key role on a contender in a few years' time. Barring that, they need to go from "lots of assets" to "fewer GREAT assets" and somehow come up with top picks and hit on them. And that's easier said than done.
* Miami was motivated to do the deal because the rollover provisions on the 2023 pick (in order to do their 2019 Jimmy Butler trade) had encumbered their ability to trade picks from 2022-2026, and so this freed up several picks for trades.
