The KAT trade and Rudy contract made some theoretical sense, but I think probably underestimated the chances Rudy is close to cooked. Sometimes he looks so bad out there.
They did a weird thing in trying to get defense at a position they already had KAT, and then having that new player also make a ton of money. Would have made more sense (imo) to replace KAT's scoring with Donovan (he was traded after Gobert for fewer picks/swaps), and then turn KAT into shooters+assets, which then could become a defense-minded roleplaying C. Such guys are always available.
in which case, getting out from under the KAT contract and getting under the apron was the correct move, even if it sucks this year (with Randle at $33M) and kinda sucks next year (player option for $31M). If they truly want to fire him into the sun, there will be a lot of suitors for a $31M expiring deal.
Do you think this is a good wager?
Let's get past my views on paying defense-first 5s, extending Gobert, trading KAT or expecting Gobert to hold up better than KAT.
I see both sides of it, to be sure. Part of the issue is that if you don't think KAT is coachable into playing an acceptable level of defense, then he really doesn't fit what they're trying to build in Minnesota. So "hold up" means "contribute on both ends" just as much as it does "have skills that don't deteriorate with age".
I think Connelly wasn't prepared for the second apron - he would have been happy to have KAT and Gobert under the old CBA but the new CBA forced his hand. I don't know what scuttlebutt was going around when he made the trade but I can't imagine any GM understood how punitive the new CBA was going to be.
If the defense of a GM's performance is "he built this team to built one specific team; how can you blame him?!".....I would posit that that GM might not be good. That's a bizarre team construction goal, given the depth of the league, and smells a lot like "BS people say to keep their jobs."
Yeah I just think this is an excessively pessimistic take on their quality of roster construction. I have a higher opinion of Gobert than most, and that's fine, but to me the key issue they're going to face is the escalating price on their core (which now includes Reid). Randle drops in 2 years, Gobert in 4, but by the time his contract is up Gobert will be 20% of the cap. That is TOTALLY reasonable for a player of his caliber, even if you think the DPOYs were improvidently awarded. They have enough outside shooting, even if KAT gave them a whole other way they could win a game - and now they have the flexibility to acquire more, if it's on the market.
Yeah, so, please reread my post because that isn't what I said about the GM---you are a lot better than the above.
1. When Connelly left Denver, the Nuggets had just finished 6th in the WC and had been Gentlemen Swept out of Round 1
You're wrong. Here's a series preview saying it: https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/5/3/24147746/denver-nuggets-minnesota-timberwolves-nba-playoffs-preview It's also been mentioned as a motivation on multiple podcasts.
Yeah, but a team that has those two without a PG is going to have issues with distribution isn't it? I think (as lovegtm suggested) you'd plan on Ant as the three, and that's why it's problematic---two ball-dominant guys who are smallish for their position, and then unless you get a Lonzo Ball or Caruso size PG you have another small spot there. Talent-wise, I totally get it...but I really don't like the fit or see an easy roster construction around it. I like Mitchell a lot, but the issue with him is he's a ball-dominant guy who isn't quite good enough to carry a team...and Ant may or may not be the same profile (he's better defensively, and he MIGHT be better offensively, too).
I don't think it's a perfect fit (in the same way that I've never thought JB and JT were a perfect fit), but I'm not worried about too much it when both guys can be 2-way all-NBA players and size-wise at least, can play together (this isn't Lillard/McConnell or Wall/Beal, or typically guard/guard all offense combos). There are a ton of interesting variables - what would Mitchell play like when for the first time in his pro career, he's not the undisputed #1 guy? What will Ant look like when he's in his prime? More than ever the league is filled with point guard skills all across the positional spectrum, I'm not super worried about finding a frontcourt player who can distribute between two high scoring guards (and that's assuming Mitchell doesn't take on a more traditional PG role), and if the team wanted to go small, it's not hard to find guys like Lonzo or Caruso to work it out (the dream and the much harder get would be to find an all-star level guy like Jrue).
Maybe I'm too low on current/next few years Gobert.... but the risk here (significant in my opinion) that HRB rightly brings up is that Gobert may be trending towards being not any good quicker than they thought.
That proves my point. I know what the articles in 2024 say. It's all ex-ante 2yrs after the deal.
It’s before the series—that is obviously the relevant ex ante here.
Exactly. It was constructed after Denver won the Championship and was used all last season when both teams were good.
You take Donovan Mitchell over Rudy Gobert every time. This is a joke, right?
It's possible that I just have a different view of modern NBA basketball. I think you can get quite far with multiple guys who are elite scorers and middling passers, and then find guys to fill in around them. Kawhi-led teams are a good template here, and if I squinted I could see Tatum/Brown in that mold (I can't quite go that far, because I think Tatum is an underrated passer whose assists are low for structural reasons).
The Bucks have really turned the corner since the first 5 games of the season. They are still a threat to challenge for home court in the playoffs. Then there is the ole “If” regarding Khris Middleton.
Seems more likely than not to me if I had to bet on it today. They're better than Miami for sure. Orlando I'm less certain of.
The Bucks 1-6 on the road is misleading as it doesn’t match their performance . Two of those losses at Brooklyn and Memphis during the first two weeks when they struggled badly which isn’t where this team is today. The other losses include one in Boston when they were leading late 3Q, in Cleveland when they were leading late 4Q, and the Hornets game where the refs blew a whistle when Ball tripped himself but they couldn’t challenge after winning a previous bad call.
All-time great shooter, but its the work Steph does off-ball on offense that gets massive respect from me. Never stops moving/cutting, with defenses forced to overplay the 3-point line, leading to the Warriors' signature backdoor cut.
They're old and Doc has the foot on the MPG accelerator. He's THIBS-ium right into the ground.
Steph is an unbelievable player who is knocking on the door of the LeBron conversation of "wait, he's just....not...getting old in the way other guys do?"
It's good parity too. The league is jammed with skill, and there's less reliance than ever on solely "name brand" players.
Yes to all of that, plus: Steph is one of the great screening guards of all tine. I think he may set more killer screens and backscreens in an average month than Luka has in his career.
You'll never hear me complain about lighter MPG & load mgmt for key NBA players north of 30, especially before All-Star game weekend.
He makes everyone on the floor around him quite a bit better and isn't slowing down (perfect body type to play into his 40s).
It’s easy to manage minutes when you are the best team in the league and winning. Not so much when you get out of the gates 2-7 or whatever they were on some tough losses. That team has a ceiling regardless unless they make some personnel moves along with getting Middleton healthy.
Milwaukee was pretty elite at winning (30-13 when Griffin got fired) until Doc showed up.
Golden State has elite depth. I wrote in my preview on them how they are the deepest team in the league while the Bucks are one of the thinnest even with Middleton yet despite that have been a Top 5-6 team since Game 6 of the season (I don’t have my numbers with me).
FWIW, maybe not much, NBA.com has Giannis fourth on their “MVP ladder” behind Jokic, JT and AD
Steph is having a great year, yes, and that same NBA.com article lists him as sixth on the MVP
Yes, LeBron is getting all the “look at what he’s doing at his age” attention. Which is not unreasonable but what Steph is doing is also pretty remarkable. Al is three levels below but he’s aging pretty well also.
Hield, Lindy Waters & GP2 are nice players but Kerr has made a conscious effort to limit Curry's minutes (29.6mpg).
You and I are typically making the same points. I think in this case, there's two places we differ. One is that I believe fit matters a great deal and the defense and passing fit here is just 'ehh'. The second (which has come up before in our exchanges) is that while we both think wings are critical, I put some more weight on bigs and size than you do (or than benhogan does). I'm far from the group that thinks Embiid is the bestest, because most of us know it is not 1985, or even 2005, anymore. But I think most recent champs have had an above-average 5 and that's worth noting. That's not directly relevant here, but it is part of my roster building concern around theoretical Mitchell/Ant (as you proposed not getting Gobert and dealing KAT)
Echo'd by this Reddit thread that asks the same question you do: https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1d4togj/why_do_people_say_that_the_timberwolves_built/.
I'm not saying that Ant and DM would have been a sure-fire championship pairing but talent wins in the NBA and that would have given them two of the top 15 (at least) players in the NBA plus KAT plus McDaniels plus Naz Reid as a core. With those five guys as a core, all MIN needs to do is find 3+D guys for the rest of the positions.
I don’t think we disagree on that—though lovegtm also traded KAT in his scenario which adds to size question but created more upside if you get the right guys back. In your scenario I do worry about fit and passing…you’ve got three pretty heavy usage guys two off whom don’t regularly play defense (though Mitchell can when he wants to)
