General NBA season thread: 24-25 edition

Euclis20

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The Ringer came out with updated player rankings:

Tatum: 4th (up from 6th at the start of the year)
Brown: 13th (up from 14th)
White: 35th (up from 37th)
Holiday: 42nd (down from 38th)
Porzingis: 50th (down from 42nd)

The biggest news here is that they swapped SGA and Tatum (and obviously Embiid dropped down, to 9th). Not many places rank Tatum above SGA, which has always seemed odd to me because wtf has SGA done?

https://nbarankings.theringer.com/

We’re splitting hairs, of course; these are two 26-year-old superstars who lead their respective conferences’ favorite teams to reach the Finals and are currently neck and neck in most relevant statistical categories. But without overwhelming evidence to support Shai’s case—which I don’t believe there to be, whether it’s talent, skill, value, or impact on winning—the tiebreaker should go to Tatum. He’s coming off a championship run, in a career already loaded with humongous postseason moments; the résumé comparison is no comparison at all. Shai has won one (1) playoff series in his life. Tatum has won 14. That matters!
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Some other strange things jumped out (first one I saw was that Maxey moved from 28th to 24th, despite a really disappointing start to the season).
 
Silverdude2167

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Euclis20 said:
The Ringer came out with updated player rankings:

Tatum: 4th (up from 6th at the start of the year)
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But Luca is still above Tatum at 2, because when you can put up a comparable stat line and play defense so bad that it should become the new controller disconnected meme, you are clearly the better player.

Does it matter, no, do I really care, no, but it's still fun to point out.
 
Tony C

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That hurts. What a great signing that was. Obviously the Warriors have incredible depth so should be fine for the regular season. But, at the same time, they need that depth since they're only a 1 star team, though Green is pretty star-like, too, at least on defense (and cheap shots).

Btw, what's with Podz' bad play? He looked so good last year.
 
lovegtm

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Saints Rest said:
If the current winning percentages remain the same, and the Celtics win 65 games vs 50 for the Nuggets, I wonder if that will change the MVP vote.
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Don't think so. Jokic would win out because a) he's clearly better b) he'd even get a bump for dragging a now-very-mediocre team to a decent seed.
 
tims4wins

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lovegtm said:
Don't think so. Jokic would win out because a) he's clearly better b) he'd even get a bump for dragging a now-very-mediocre team to a decent seed.
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Has an MVP ever come from a 5 seed (or worse) or a team with only 50 wins (or fewer)? @Brand Name

Edit: looks like Jokic has won it multiple times with < 50 wins, never mind
 
Ed Hillel

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lovegtm said:
Don't think so. Jokic would win out because a) he's clearly better b) he'd even get a bump for dragging a now-very-mediocre team to a decent seed.
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Imo narrative fatigue is real and the tides have turned in favor if Tatum. I think he’s the favorite to win, even if Jokic is clearly better.
 
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Saints Rest said:
If the current winning percentages remain the same, and the Celtics win 65 games vs 50 for the Nuggets, I wonder if that will change the MVP vote.
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If the counting stats (and the accessible advanced stats) are comparable, and Tatum wins a lot more, then I could see this. But I think it's much more likely Jokic overwhelms the stat sheet. He's a monster. Tatum is obviously filling it up too but not quite at that level.
 
wade boggs chicken dinner

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From this article, an absolutely insane DEN stat:
​
As pointed out by courtside reporter Jeremy Taché, the best offensive rating in a single season in NBA history was 123.2. But the Nuggets with Jokic on the court this season, have a rating of 125.8. On the other hand, the worst offensive rating in the NBA to date is 92.2. Guess what, the Nuggets are 86.6 offensive rating-wise without Jokic!​
 
HomeRunBaker

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Doncic out indefinitely with wrist injury. Whoa big news!! (For my Mavs u49.5 win total!)
 
Euclis20

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NYCSox said:
The current western conference standings are really pissing me off.
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The west is super bunched up, again. The gap between 1 and 2 in the east is equal to the gap between 1 and 9 in the west. The whole thing can flip in a week, and likely will throughout the year (especially considering most of the teams at the top are somewhat surprising).

Tony C said:
um...why?
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I wouldn't be surprised at Celtics fans feeling a certain sort of way about the Warriors, Lakers and Rockets all being in the top 4.
 
RorschachsMask

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Euclis20

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The Giddey stuff is rough (his shooting has gone from bad to worse and his on/off splits are really ugly so far), but the silver lining for him is that he is still really young. He just turned 22 in October, and 12/6/6 isn't bad for a guy his size. I still think this was the right move for them, Caruso just wasn't any use in Chicago.

On Paul George, that sounds about right.
 
benhogan

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lovegtm said:
I like the idea, since the shorter format could definitely generate more intensity.
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Manipulating the Elam score & roster size is smart.

I'd go with 4 teams & 7 players. 28 All-Stars

35pt games. Round robin

Then a 50point final between the TOP 2 teams based on record (point diff tie breaker)

RorschachsMask said:
I’ve probably been the most vocal anti Giddey person on here, but even I’m surprised with how bad he’s been this season.
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OKC had a really good offseason. Love Caruso for them plus Giddey was a bad fit for the Thunder. Kind of shocked they didn't have to include a pick of some sort. Presti has done a tremendous job

Giddey made some sense for the Bulls. At least they didn't compound it by extending him. They are wisely letting RFA dictate his next deal.
 
ManicCompression

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Euclis20 said:
The Giddey stuff is rough (his shooting has gone from bad to worse and his on/off splits are really ugly so far), but the silver lining for him is that he is still really young. He just turned 22 in October, and 12/6/6 isn't bad for a guy his size. I still think this was the right move for them, Caruso just wasn't any use in Chicago.

On Paul George, that sounds about right.
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Giddey falls into the Ben Simmons bucket for me (though obviously less athletically gifted). All the playmaking is not very helpful to teams who want to win if it doesn’t come with shotmaking. It’s just hard to fit that kind of a weakness on a true contender. Since he can’t shoot, he has to be a number one option, but he also can’t be a great number one option if he can’t shoot.

I thought he’d at least put up empty stats on the Bulls, but should be a red flag to everyone in the league that he isn’t. Kudos to OKC for offloading him before he hit pumpkin status.
 
SteveF

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Rim is 0-3. SMR is 4-14. LMR is 14 <3. As everyone knows, 3PA have largely replaced LMR. So people complaining about how too many 3s are ruining the aesthetics/entertainment value of basketball are complaining mostly about 24 foot jumpshots replacing 16 foot jumpshots.
92151
 
lovegtm

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SteveF said:
View attachment 92150
Rim is 0-3. SMR is 4-14. LMR is 14 <3. As everyone knows, 3PA have largely replaced LMR. So people complaining about how too many 3s are ruining the aesthetics/entertainment value of basketball are complaining mostly about 24 foot jumpshots replacing 16 foot jumpshots.
View attachment 92151
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I used to say that, but I think what they're really complaining about is that teams are HUNTING the 24-foot jumpshots.

Personally, I like that, because it creates a deep tension at the core of the game: the most valuable areas are the furthest away from each other.

However, a lot of people dislike the loss of legibility from when the game was: get as close as possible (and do so by iso-ing a star on the block, probably).
 
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lovegtm said:
I used to say that, but I think what they're really complaining about is that teams are HUNTING the 24-foot jumpshots.
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Agreed. I have no problem at all with the current aesthetics, but admit it does create a new dynamic.

It also seems to create more game to game volatility, with teams actively trying to get 40%-ish shots. Previously as you said, the goal was to get as close to the rim as possible and then often settle for 16-18 footers.

Obviously it's much better to be shooting 3s at a decent percentage, but if you have a bunch of 35-40% shooters, the bell curve on potential outcomes in any given game isn't as tight. It will definitely even out over 82 games and (usually) in a 7 game series. But game to game seems like it can lead to some wackier results/blowouts.
 
Euclis20

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Fun times in Minnesota. Gobert gets deep post position and calls for the ball, Randle ignores him and keeps dribbling the air out of the ball behind the arc, Gobert sulks away and gets an offensive 3 seconds called while Ant looks on in disbelief:

View: https://twitter.com/blames_/status/1859967644033826880


At the end of the game, as if to prove that he was correct not to pass to Gobert, Randle rifles the big man a pass in the closing seconds which he promptly fumbles away:

View: https://twitter.com/HotHandTheory/status/1859796600232738955


It's largely been ignored because Ant has been awesome (if perhaps a bit too 3 point dependent) and the Wolves haven't been THAT bad (8-7 start isn't nearly as bad as a few other contenders), but so far the Towns/Randle trade hasn't been great for them (plus Donte is having his worst year from 3 since his rookie season). Not totally unexpected, but purposely going backwards when you've got a young superstar is a really bad look.
 
lovegtm

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Euclis20 said:
Fun times in Minnesota. Gobert gets deep post position and calls for the ball, Randle ignores him and keeps dribbling the air out of the ball behind the arc, Gobert sulks away and gets an offensive 3 seconds called while Ant looks on in disbelief:

View: https://twitter.com/blames_/status/1859967644033826880


At the end of the game, as if to prove that he was correct not to pass to Gobert, Randle rifles the big man a pass in the closing seconds which he promptly fumbles away:

View: https://twitter.com/HotHandTheory/status/1859796600232738955


It's largely been ignored because Ant has been awesome (if perhaps a bit too 3 point dependent) and the Wolves haven't been THAT bad (8-7 start isn't nearly as bad as a few other contenders), but so far the Towns/Randle trade hasn't been great for them (plus Donte is having his worst year from 3 since his rookie season). Not totally unexpected, but purposely going backwards when you've got a young superstar is a really bad look.
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This is all downstream from spending All the Picks and Players on a 2-pick-at-most guy.

If picks are really burning a hole in your pocket, trade for Donovan Mitchell instead--he was clearly available for the same price! Then turn KAT into elite roleplayers + some draft capital. Whatever you do, don't do all the picks for an ageing non-superstar.
 
wade boggs chicken dinner

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radsoxfan said:
Agreed. I have no problem at all with the current aesthetics, but admit it does create a new dynamic.

It also seems to create more game to game volatility, with teams actively trying to get 40%-ish shots. Previously as you said, the goal was to get as close to the rim as possible and then often settle for 16-18 footers.

Obviously it's much better to be shooting 3s at a decent percentage, but if you have a bunch of 35-40% shooters, the bell curve on potential outcomes in any given game isn't as tight. It will definitely even out over 82 games and (usually) in a 7 game series. But game to game seems like it can lead to some wackier results/blowouts.
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Plus, people should re-calibrate what they think is a "big lead." Going up by 21 points when a team is hitting 70% of their 3Ps means that leads can dwindle very quickly if the shooting percentages shift - and not just because a team isn't "playing well."
 
DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Plus, people should re-calibrate what they think is a "big lead." Going up by 21 points when a team is hitting 70% of their 3Ps means that leads can dwindle very quickly if the shooting percentages shift - and not just because a team isn't "playing well."
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I appreciate this post but there are plenty of very well informed NBA fans who will not accept that a 20-handle point lead can be blown, ever. Its considered a failing rather than just another outcome.

More to the point, some NBA fans seem to be surprised when teams make runs which is simply a lot easier these days due to the factors being discussed. We somehow cannot wrap our heads around the idea the NBA games can have lead changes - it feels like the team winning is expected to hold the lead almost always. If they do not, that is evidence of some sort of flaw of execution or coaching.
 
lovegtm

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
I appreciate this post but there are plenty of very well informed NBA fans who will not accept that a 20-handle point lead can be blown, ever. Its considered a failing rather than just another outcome.

More to the point, some NBA fans seem to be surprised when teams make runs which is simply a lot easier these days due to the factors being discussed. We somehow cannot wrap our heads around the idea the NBA games can have lead changes - it feels like the team winning is expected to hold the lead almost always. If they do not, that is evidence of some sort of flaw of execution or coaching.
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This is the biggest flaw with the IST imo: the variance between games is just so, so high right now. 7-game series are good representations of talent/execution, but single games can fluctuate really wildly.

The Celtics went 16-3 in the playoffs, and their 3 losses were all total beatdowns, heavily (although not completely!) influenced by 3-point shooting variance.
 
benhogan

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lovegtm said:
This is all downstream from spending All the Picks and Players on a 2-pick-at-most guy.

If picks are really burning a hole in your pocket, trade for Donovan Mitchell instead--he was clearly available for the same price! Then turn KAT into elite roleplayers + some draft capital. Whatever you do, don't do all the picks for an ageing non-superstar.
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Yeah, but would Dono be the answer to Joker like Rudy has been?

Also, Good Guy Gobert cut the Wolves a sweet deal with his $110M extension, by declining his $46.6 million player option for 2025-26.
 
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lovegtm said:
This is the biggest flaw with the IST imo: the variance between games is just so, so high right now. 7-game series are good representations of talent/execution, but single games can fluctuate really wildly.

The Celtics went 16-3 in the playoffs, and their 3 losses were all total beatdowns, heavily (although not completely!) influenced by 3-point shooting variance.
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It's a variation of what we have been seeing in the NCAA tourney for awhile now. Inferior teams can get hot, superior teams can get cold. It will create bigger fluctuations, more comebacks, more volatility, and some weird results in a 1 game scenario.

Those inferior teams of course are not likely to do that 6 games in a row in the NCAA tourney to win it all, or 4 out of 7 in the NBA playoffs to win a series. But in 1 game, they definitely can.

If you are the better team in the NBA playoffs, the lesson is to never let down and let it get to a game 6 or 7 if you can help it (like the Celtics last year). You can't simply assume a home game 6 or 7 as the better team is going to go your way if you "turn it on".

Edit: As fas as the IST I'm not sure it's a feature or a bug, given the stakes. Who honestly cares who wins.... it's mostly for fun/ratings/early season drama/non-trivial $ for the bench guys. It's fine if some mediocre team wins, like the Lakers last year :)
 
HomeRunBaker

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radsoxfan said:
It's a variation of what we have been seeing in the NCAA tourney for awhile now. Inferior teams can get hot, superior teams can get cold. It will create bigger fluctuations, more comebacks, more volatility, and some weird results in a 1 game scenario.

Those inferior teams of course are not likely to do that 6 games in a row in the NCAA tourney to win it all, or 4 out of 7 in the NBA playoffs to win a series. But in 1 game, they definitely can.

If you are the better team in the NBA playoffs, the lesson is to never let down and let it get to a game 6 or 7 if you can help it (like the Celtics last year). You can't simply assume a home game 6 or 7 as the better team is going to go your way if you "turn it on".

Edit: As fas as the IST I'm not sure it's a feature or a bug, given the stakes. Who honestly cares who wins.... it's mostly for fun/ratings/early season drama/non-trivial $ for the bench guys. It's fine if some mediocre team wins, like the Lakers last year :)
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Yes, we are likely to see a Pacers team in Vegas and even in the Emirates Final based on one-game variance as well as teams approaching these group games as regular season games+ rather than an actual playoff series. That is what will make this fun year after year.
 
benhogan

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HomeRunBaker said:
Yes, we are likely to see a Pacers team in Vegas and even in the Emirates Final based on one-game variance as well as teams approaching these group games as regular season games+ rather than an actual playoff series. That is what will make this fun year after year.
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The Sheikh should bequeath you some DraftKings bucks for being the first person to use the term Emirates Final
 
cheech13

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I get that the KAT/Gobert tandem was financially untenable under the new CBA, but willingly signing up for the Julius Randle Experience seems like a gigantic misfire by Connelly and the Wolves brain trust. Just the absolute wrong player for what they were building there.
 
HomeRunBaker

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cheech13 said:
I get that the KAT/Gobert tandem was financially untenable under the new CBA, but willingly signing up for the Julius Randle Experience seems like a gigantic misfire by Connelly and the Wolves brain trust. Just the absolute wrong player for what they were building there.
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I think Randle is playing pretty well and putting a ton of pressure on the defenses in a way that KAT never could. I kinda think his fit is going pretty well but Rudy is about ready to take that Roy Hibbert nosedive into oblivion.
 
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benhogan said:
Giddy up! The Laker's with a nice start to the season (Orlando is good).
How has JJ been?
Is Knecht catching up to Reaves?
what's next for DLo?
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JJ is a clear upgrade at coach, I think he will be good.

Knecht and Reaves aren't identical players, they can play together. Knecht is already annoyingly competent with flashes of much more than that. I know it was widely said at the time, but he should not have slipped to 17 in a weak draft. At worst he should be a solid cheap rotation guy, but there's a chance he very good starting level player.

DLo stinks, but if he buys into being a bench guard he is probably fine. Vincent is unplayable.

You didn't ask but Bronny is what many (most?) expected, really really in over his head. Even on the G-League team. The fact that he is only playing G-League home games is weird, I feel bad for him. He's unlikely to ever be playable in an NBA game, but this isn't helping.
 
lovegtm

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HomeRunBaker said:
I think Randle is playing pretty well and putting a ton of pressure on the defenses in a way that KAT never could. I kinda think his fit is going pretty well but Rudy is about ready to take that Roy Hibbert nosedive into oblivion.
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Yeah Rudy is a living embodiment of the "if everybody you meet as an asshole, you might be the asshole" aphorism.
 
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