Huh, I thought at first that this was overstated, but... nope!
Even Wallace and Isaiah Joe are grading out as +1 on the defensive side, though Holiday took Joe to the weight room a few times tonight.
General Celtics thread: 24-25 edition
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Even Wallace and Isaiah Joe are grading out as +1 on the defensive side, though Holiday took Joe to the weight room a few times tonight.
That may be true, but 63 3-point attempts is absurd, regardless of how the team is constructed. No matter how elite the OKC rim protectors are, even without KP at least 4 of the C's starters have the strength and skill to take it to the rim or make some moves in the paint to get some higher percentage shots and potentially draw more fouls and better position your team to grab an offensive rebound on a miss. The 3 can remain an important part of their offense, but a little more balance seems to be in order. So many of these pullup 3's are basically giving the possession away on a miss. When the opposition knows there's a 67% chance that you're going to opt to shoot the 3, it kind of makes it easier for them to defend against you.
A very large percentage of the 3s were generated off of good actions, that did collapse the defense.
We already know what it looks like when Boston tries to "do something different because the 3s aren't falling": it looks like the 2nd half of game #1 against OKC.
People hate that an NBA team with size+length can cut off the paint by always collapsing, but they absolutely can. You have to be willing to work for and take good 3s if that's what is happening.
We already know what it looks like when Boston tries to "do something different because the 3s aren't falling": it looks like the 2nd half of game #1 against OKC.
People hate that an NBA team with size+length can cut off the paint by always collapsing, but they absolutely can. You have to be willing to work for and take good 3s if that's what is happening.
Gotta wonder if JB's fasting took a toll on him; his creative decision making was not abundant.
OKC is too good to bring anything less than your most alert mental game .
Huh. Is his nickname "the natural" or something? Looks like for the "natural" musical notation mark. Sounds like he's telling us, "I'm not sharp and i'm not flat."
It's supposed to be the number 2 twice (which I see) and his initials (which I do not see):
https://thesuavereport.com/2024/12/05/breaking-down-shai-gilgeous-alexanders-new-signature-logo/
https://thesuavereport.com/2024/12/05/breaking-down-shai-gilgeous-alexanders-new-signature-logo/
Agreed. It was the 3-ball volume that kept us in the game (along with Wiggins 0-9 shooting). OKC played a much better floor game, they defended better and were the much more physical team. If we didn’t outmath the Thunder with our volume this would have been a double digit deficit much of the game. The least of our problems was shooting too many three’s and shooting less efficient two’s for the sake of balance against an interior defense such as the Thunder would be playing right into their hands.
If JB played an average game and they hit 3-4 more threes they win despite the huge free throw disparity
With Chet healthy they just need to hit close to a normal percentage from deep. The dude is great on defense. So flexible and very long.
CJM can’t be upset with 63 threes. 3 more go down and it’s a different result. Key is PP & SH hitting their shots. Dudes will need to step up deep in the playoffs. Hopefully their seasoning will allow them to grow this playoff season.
With Chet healthy they just need to hit close to a normal percentage from deep. The dude is great on defense. So flexible and very long.
CJM can’t be upset with 63 threes. 3 more go down and it’s a different result. Key is PP & SH hitting their shots. Dudes will need to step up deep in the playoffs. Hopefully their seasoning will allow them to grow this playoff season.
I am surprised Wallace graded the same as Joe, as generally Wallace has a much better reputation, but sounds like the stats aren't backing that. I think Joe is going to be largely unplayable against Boston if the teams matched up in a postseason series
I'd understand the logo thing if they came into Boston and won game 6 of the finals to take home the trophy... putting it up for a March win? Comes across as immature to me.
I would imagine it is the Thunder’s defensive approach which plays into Joe’s numbers than him being an equal straight up defender to Wallace which as you point out is kinda laughable. When the Thunder take the ball out of opposing scorers hands with doubles Joe is one of the better rotational defenders on the floor due to his agility and he is very positionally sound in those rotations. If that metric is attempting to grade them as individual defenders it failed however as a team defender, against mostly second units in this system, it is made perfectly to mask the holes in Joe’s defensive game.
Good way of putting it--I think Boston won the gameplanning battle to a large degree, but OKC won the execution/physicality battle.
Daigneault has basically 2 defensive schemes against Boston: help and no-help. He tries to be unpredictable about when he deploys them, but the Cs did a pretty solid job sniffing out when it was which, and that's how you win the math battle. (Which was almost enough to win the game--math is real!)
However, when Boston played defense, the execution just wasn't there. SGA is really tough, and at another level than even 2024 Luka. He's able to bend the Celtics to give help they don't want to, consistently.
One thing that was nice to see in Q1 was how quickly Tatum adjusted to being the facilitator, with his drive and kick outs keeping the C's in it when they were really looking at having to dig out of an early hole. Truly an elite player to be able to do that so well.
Kind in in contrast to JB who is so talented at getting close to the basket and finishing, but who is not really known for making these adjustments.
Kind in in contrast to JB who is so talented at getting close to the basket and finishing, but who is not really known for making these adjustments.
It appears to my naked eye that Daigneault was more tentative to force the ball out of the playmakers hands versus Boston than any other team (who is a threat) due to our shotmaking ability from 3. Touching on the Joe thing he was placed in more situations in defending iso than he probably has in any game all season and wouldn’t have ever played this many minutes had Wiggins been playable or they had been at full strength in the backcourt/wing.
These may seem to be the same looks they had against say the Wizards or Jazz but it is all the actions leading up to the shot that changes the rhythm. OKC is really REALLY good on the defensive side of the ball and their schemes are brilliant. They shut down or alter pretty much everything. In the earlier meeting this year the Thunder held the Celtics to 9-46 shooting behind the arc. This isn’t random…..although sub-20% is a bit extreme.
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For me the biggest takeaway was Celtics were unable to stop the ball defensively—-OKC got into paint and to rim at will save last 4 minutes of third quarter or so. Some of that is about effort—the fear though is that it is primarily about quickness.
OKC was faster and more physical almost all night and seemed to dictate the pace. Celts, from my perspective often settled for the quick 3 as if they didn;'t want to force the paint disparity, I thought and posted the Celts needed to be more aggressive, attack and let the refs give them some return calls. I though the reffing at best was uneven. But bottom line OKC was the better team last night.
Well, the biggest rim protector is out, so if KP is out during a potential finals, I think I'd have OKC as a slight favorite.
KP helps, certainly....though my primary observation is we need to stop the ball more effectiveley rather than do better once people get to the rim (though both will help!)
Yeah the Celtics abused Joe in the second quarter of the first game, and I think OKC benched him in the second half. (or at least mostly benched him). If the team is remotely healthy, I don't think he sees the court in a matchup with the Celts in general
Joe is their 8th/9th rotational player, he'll play against Boston's bench mob next time.
A couple of SSS concerns:
1. OKC was missing their 2 best perimeter defenders in JayDub & Caruso. JT won't get as much operational freedom next time.
2. The C's need a healthy KP for rim protection.
3. PP being ineffective against OKC, CLE, LAL in 7/8 games (-92 in 7 of those games) this season
4. Brown's 3pt shooting this season. He needs wide open 3s to shoot 35% otherwise it's been ~30% this season. Teams like OKC can play off him on the perimeter & still get out to him. JB unable to post/seal, made him completely useless last night.
PP picking up SGA full court in Q4 was the right move. JB/Jrue/White need to be rotating on SGA & doing that from the tip.
Post game Scal nailed it when he said that OKC is physical on the perimeter but shows hands when the opponent shoots. Didn't love the officiating but Boston got whistled for not being disciplined. Plus SGA is one of the best foul grifters in the NBA, hopefully the game is officiated differently in the playoffs.
Nice analysis! A couple of things: Porzingis, good shooting Pritchard and Hauser, and a non sloppy Brown.
OKC’s defense last night was about the best I’ve seen against the Celtics in the last two years, while missing jdub and Caruso. Even so, it was still anybody’s game with three minutes left.
KP coming back, if healthy and integrated, will change the game defensively and offensively for the Celtics against both the Cavs and OKC. Less Kornet, different middle spacing for Tatum and especially Brown to use for scoring drives to the rim, and for drive and kicks. Against OKC, Horford and KP together will move one or both of Hartenstein and Holmgren and their 21 rebounds further away from the rim.
Especially if Jrue is still less than 100%, Hauser and Pritchard are going to have to show up offensively for the Celtics to get to the finals and be competitive there. As you point out, they have been less than stellar against both Cleveland and OKC this year. The jury is still out, I hope. I don’t see Craig, or anyone else, playing meaningful minutes beyond the second round.
I fear that the Knicks push the semis to 6 or 7 games. Come the EC finals, Tatum’s minutes start limiting his shooting effectiveness and Brown doesn’t pick up the slack like he did last year. Brown’s game, as you and others have pointed out, has changed dramatically this year, as he has passed more effectively but shot much less so. The team may not need Brown as playmaker in the playoffs because of the minute changes, but it will definitely need Brown the scorer. And they definitely don’t need the Brown with the sloppy handle.
Yea I could envision Boston having a bruising ECF and OKC waiting for them rested.
SGA has taken a leap as a scorer & they are extremely well constructed.
Just have a hard time seeing anyone beating them. Hope I'm wrong.
I would say that Joe is decidedly in the 9/10 instead of 8/9 (as Wiggins, Caruso, Wallace are all very clearly above him at this point), So put Joe/Kenrich Williams as 9/10 with JWill at 11
Yes a series against Cleveland might be a tougher series for Boston, but not sure a Denver WCF would be easy for OKC assuming that is the matchup. Some other matchups could be easier, and some (if it is Minny) might be tougher
When OKC gets to 9,10,11 in the rotation it will be match up dependent. They get to decide between an All-NBA defender (Caruso) and an efficient 3pt shooter (Joe). An embarrassment of roster riches (JWill/Chet please get very expensive soon).
One of the Celtics weaknesses is WING depth and believe that has led to more double BIGs (Kornet/Queta) & less rotational flexibility. BUT it's a small thing that only really matters in the regular season (or playoff injuries
) since Boston will go TOP8 in the playoffs.Daigneault did his little "leave shooters open and look like a genius when they miss" thing, and got a Thinking Basketball video made about what a genius he was for letting PJ Washington and Josh Green take corner 3s.
Then they started making those shots, and the series ended in 6. Hard to not see the parallels when everyone is jizzing about OKC's defense after Boston was 8-50 in 2nd halves.
Then they started making those shots, and the series ended in 6. Hard to not see the parallels when everyone is jizzing about OKC's defense after Boston was 8-50 in 2nd halves.
Jaylen's shooting like 31% from 3 this season.
In last year's playoffs, he shot 32%.
But he hit the one that mattered against Indy.
I still want the ball in his hands when it matters, or Tatum's or White's or Al's or Holiday's or PP's.
Until someone finishes them off, they're still the champs, and that shit makes a difference when the playoffs come. Just ask the 2021-22 Celtics
In last year's playoffs, he shot 32%.
But he hit the one that mattered against Indy.
I still want the ball in his hands when it matters, or Tatum's or White's or Al's or Holiday's or PP's.
Until someone finishes them off, they're still the champs, and that shit makes a difference when the playoffs come. Just ask the 2021-22 Celtics
I think it's much more likely that OKC comes out of 2 or 3 bruising series and BOS is the more-rested team but I agree with you that if OKC has the easier path to the Finals, they will probably win.
Yup, the West has teams that can really test OKC, in a fully gameplanned context.
Cleveland is really really good, and could beat or test Boston, but I don't think they'll bruise them in the way past EC teams have. If the Cs make it through Cleveland, I think they'll be well-positioned for max perform.
I could have sworn it was the NBA's biggest lob threat & Finals 5th best player, Derrick Lively, that was the difference maker? or
was it Dallas' NBA #1 rated defense? could have been 3 & D superstar Derrick Jones Jr? Tough to keep track of all those great things that proud organization once possessed.
The WC is deeper but the Wolves & Nuggets are worse. Jimmy/Steph are old. Hookah is fat. & OKC added/improved.
They will Gentlemen Sweep the WC, much like the Celtics did last year.
The Celtics gentlemanly action was greatly aided by 1) Cleveland being banged up 2) Indy getting really unlucky to be swept.
The West has good teams, better than 2024's Cleveland and Indian. What if the injury luck goes against OKC, and not their opponents? What if the shot luck goes against them?
Obviously OKC is the prohibitive favorite to come out of the West, but the Celtics know very well from 2023 how much can go wrong on the way to the Finals as a favorite (Caleb "Steph" Martin, Brogdon's elbow, Tatum's ankle, etc).
I'm old enough to remember people crowning Denver's asses after they beat Boston twice last year too.
Was it luck tho? I agree that Indy played much better than a sweep would suggest. But other than game 1, the Celtics' closing 4th quarter defense was just suffocating in that series (and really, throughout the playoffs).
I agree will all of the above, BUT this one really resonates with me.
Regular season Denver '24 and OKC '25 games had a very similar vibe
I know we all appreciate it fully here, but it's really remarkable when you think about how Tatum and Brown are both perfect, model NBA players and professionals.
When you compare them to so many of their lottery-pick contemporaries that would-be conquerors of the league, it's remarkable how the Celtics have not just one, but two elite players in their prime that come without basically any question marks. You've got guys that can't stay healthy (Ja), can't stay in shape (Embiid, Zion), have questionable conditioning (Luka), unexplained mental issues (Simmons) or just kind of drift around without a lot of drive (Ingram, LaVine), it's so fortunate that the Celtics have two guys that have been nothing but professional and dedicated to getting better, with a singular focus on winning basketball games.
I'll take Jaylen's sketchy handle and Tatum's deep twos as their biggest flaws.
When you compare them to so many of their lottery-pick contemporaries that would-be conquerors of the league, it's remarkable how the Celtics have not just one, but two elite players in their prime that come without basically any question marks. You've got guys that can't stay healthy (Ja), can't stay in shape (Embiid, Zion), have questionable conditioning (Luka), unexplained mental issues (Simmons) or just kind of drift around without a lot of drive (Ingram, LaVine), it's so fortunate that the Celtics have two guys that have been nothing but professional and dedicated to getting better, with a singular focus on winning basketball games.
I'll take Jaylen's sketchy handle and Tatum's deep twos as their biggest flaws.
On Indy, it's kind of shocking to look back and remember that Boston's win probability dipped below 10% in the 4th quarter in 3 of their 4 wins. It wasn't patronizing when everyone talked about how the Indy series was the most competitive in that playoff run, despite it being the only sweep.
There's very little chance of OKC's run through the west being as easy as Boston's EC playoffs last year. R1 will likely be a well earned cakewalk (likely against one of Sac/LAC/Dal), but R2 (against the Lakers, Rockets or Warriors) and R3 (against Denver or whomever) could get messy. Boston caught an unbelievably lucky path to the finals last year. Pretty good argument that after Boston, the 3 best teams in the east last year were the Bucks, Knicks and Sixers, and not only did we not have to play any of them, the teams we did play were missing their best player for all or most of their series against the Celtics. If OKC smashes through the West as easily as Boston did the East last year, either they caught a similar run of luck, or they are a terrifying juggernaut that will be the rightful finals favorite.
Luck always plays a role. The Celtics were extremely lucky to steal game 1 (teams with the ball up 3 and the shot clock turned off win what, 98% of the time?), and it absolutely takes some luck to come back from 8 down with less than 2:30 left (like they did in game 3, not even mentioning the 18 point deficit mid-way through the 3rd). Indy had their faire share of luck (they barely missed a beat with the loss of Haliburton in large part because Nembhard played like Caleb Martin, averaging 21/4/8 on .647 TS), but it absolutely took some good fortune to end that series in 4.
The similarities are there, but last year, Boston was the team looking to smash the entire league and prove themselves against the defending champs, one for two there. This year it's OKC looking to smash the entire league and prove themselves against the champs, and they've aced both. That said, I was definitely more worried about Denver last year than OKC this year, in part because Boston wasn't yet a title team and in part because Jokic is an unsolvable problem in a way that SGA just isn't (yet).
(1) If Murray can continue playing at an All-Star level, DEN this year is probably better than DEN last year. They are better rested. Braun is probably playing better than KCP and the bench (with RWB and another year from their young players) is probably no worse than last year's bench.
(2) One could make an argument that Luka's current cast with LAL is better than the cast he had with DAL last year if LBJ is healthy and engaged.
(3) In a very SSS and not great opponents, lately MIN has been playing well with Randle. Not saying they are better than last year but maybe they cause some problems.
(4) Jimmy + Steph in the playoffs may not have enough to win 3 series in a row but they are better than any pair of players BOS played in the EC playoffs last year (not counting Mitchell since he ended up injured).
Yes, these are very good teams: Denver & GSW, in particular, could be scary for Boston if that ended up as the Finals. Minny has always played the Cs really tough.
Right, my main point with the 2024 Denver comparison is that Boston & Denver both really got up for both games: they were seen as Finals previews. When Boston lost, people were way too quick to take that as super meaningful.
We forget that Denver finished tied for the best record in the West, and seemed on a collision course with the Celtics before Minnesota happened.
(I agree that the roles of challenger and incumbent were reversed in who won OKC/Boston last year, but I think that's less meaningful than the fact that both teams really wanted to win both games.)
Joker is the best player in the NBA but SGA is a lot closer to him then I previously thought. He makes his skinniness a grifting weapon, JB breathing on him created 2 FTs.
I'm kind of hoping a playoff whistle impacts his FTA & offensive efficiency. Teams really need to get physical with him full court, force the officials to whistle on-ball bodying, & hope he wears down.
What happened to the whole marginal contact thing from the memo in February from last year? The league was officiated better from that point on through the Finals better than any time I can remember -- and the product was excellent.
By contrast, the OKC game the other night felt like a massive step backwards.
That's fair, and expect (hope) we get a more physical brand of hoops in the playoffs.
I mean, OKC was allowed to be as physical as they wanted, so they got the memo in one direction.
I do think there's a bear case for SGA and OKC in general getting roughed up more in the playoffs on offense. And they already play defense at playoff intensity/physicality, so there's less of an extra gear to hit.
I love this, because I remember during the playoffs looking at those videos and getting whiplash from the "Has Team A figured out Team B?" to the next video "How Team B clamped down on Team A"
Yeah I'm very skeptical of "one weird trick" defensive strategies that reduce to "leave guys open in the corner and say you're a genius when variance smiles on your team."
Looking at you, Taylor Jenkins.
Boston was 8-51, 15.7% from three in the second halves of the two OKC losses, 5-27 at home, 3-24 in OKC. They went 15-19 from two in the second half in the home loss. After a Horford three tied the game with 8:30 left, Boston took and missed six consecutive threes, with every starter missing, and JT missing twice, and that’s where the game slipped away from them.
I would hope that in the playoffs, when the Celtics find easy sledding in the paint in a close game, that they would take advantage of it in crunch time, instead of taking the three exclusively.
Could you maybe go back and tell us which of those possessions they took a bad shot from 3? Like where the decisionmaking is off, not just that you didn't like the result?
Because to my eyes, it was never "easy sledding in the paint".
Their record & Net Rtg (+12.5), in a deep WC (mostly without Chet) is obscene.
BUT You can hang your hat on OKC youth, post-season inexperience, playoff whistle and their 6-9 record against WC elite (Denver, Minnesota, Luka'd Mavs & GSW). My Western Conf Gentlemen Sweep expectations are bold, but that's where I believe they are headed. Felt the exact same way about Boston throughout last season.
I watched every miss from three in the 2nd half from Wednesday's game. They had 22 misses, and there was 20 good to very good looks. The 2 bad shots were a Tatum long three going for the 2 for 1, and a White airball with shot clock expiring. They had a ton, a ton of good looks. Several wide open corner threes that everyone seemed to missing - White, Al, Jrue, Pritchard, and Brown all missed.