General Celtics thread: 24-25 edition

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It's often brought up that we've had six different champions in the last 6 years, less has been made about the fact that none of the previous five champs came all that close to repeating:

The 2019 Raptors lost in R2 in 2020
The 2020 Lakers lost in R1 in 2021
The 2021 Bucks lost in R2 in 2022
The 2022 Warriors lost in R2 in 2023
The 2023 Nuggets lost in R2 in 2024

If they don't get it together it's not hard to imagine this team losing in R2 to the Knicks (or whomever), which would be right in line with every other champ from the past 6 years. This team is in the midst of their weakest stretch in the last 3 years (although the 2023 team had four 3 game losing streaks, something the current team hasn't done yet). If it's boredom or a problem focusing, that's fixable. If it's fatigue, that's a much more difficult nut to crack. It doesn't appear to be injury related (yet), so that's a plus.
I believe all of those teams lost major pieces.

I think other teams are being much more physical with the Cs and the Cs aren’t matching that energy because hey, it’s TOR on a Tuesday night.

When they start losing regularly to good teams, then I’ll start worrying.
 

Euclis20

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I believe all of those teams lost major pieces.

I think other teams are being much more physical with the Cs and the Cs aren’t matching that energy because hey, it’s TOR on a Tuesday night.

When they start losing regularly to good teams, then I’ll start worrying.
The Raptors were missing Kawhi and the Bucks were missing Middleton, but the Lakers were relatively whole, as were the Warriors and Nuggets (roleplayers come and go). Boston brought more people back than just about anyone, but fatigue is a much bigger factor for us than anyone else. The Raptors won 2 playoff series total in the two years prior to their title, the Lakers were 7 years removed from their last playoff appearance before their title, the Bucks won 3 playoff series total in the three years prior to their title, the Warriors were 3 years removed from their last playoff appearance, and the Nuggets had just 1 playoff victory in the two years before their title, while Boston had won 5 playoff series in the two years before their title win, plus we sent three guys to the olympics.

Agree on the rest. This Celtics core has had far more success than any other title team in the last 6 years. Milwaukee, Toronto, Denver and LA made it to two conference finals each with their core (granted Denver in particular may not be done). Outside of their title run, the Warriors have just one playoff appearance since 2019. Since drafting JB, Boston has made it to 6 conference finals in 8 years, 4 in 5 and 3 straight. It's really a crazy run of success that needs a second title to be cemented as the best team since the Durant warriors, but 6 of our top 8 are still in their prime. This team has underperformed their talent in the playoffs exactly once in the last 8 years (2023). I'll believe they're dead when I see it.
 

Auger34

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Time for me to go out on a limb, and hopefully it turns out to be one of my dumb limbs, like saying LeBron didn't have it in 2020, and that Giannis was overrated in 2021.

I think they fall short this year, maybe as early as the 2nd round.

Something doesn't feel quite right, and something in the offensive machine seems to be broken.

If they get ousted, as I'm predicting, I also think they'd make some significant changes around the JT/JB/DWhite core in the summer, and come back awesome the next season. It's starting to feel like the drain of the repeat is going to be tough even with the system and talent.
As of now, I think this is a crazier take than either of those (especially the Giannis one). I do think it is possible to follow a team too closely and then over analyze all of their faults.

They have the belt until someone takes it from them. IMO, there is no team in the Eastern Conference that looks THAT good to the point that they would beat them in 7 games until the Cavs in the ECF, and I think the Cavs have some weaknesses that can be exploited.

@RorschachsMask said it and I completely agree. I just can’t get worked up about anything until the playoffs. This is the most talented team in the NBA and they have the confidence of getting over the hump last year. They are human beings and it’s tough to stay locked in for an entire season, especially when the regular season has proven to be effectively worthless.

In the end, I have more faith in this team and this coach than any other team in the NBA
 

benhogan

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Agree on the rest. This Celtics core has had far more success than any other title team in the last 6 years. Milwaukee, Toronto, Denver and LA made it to two conference finals each with their core (granted Denver in particular may not be done). Outside of their title run, the Warriors have just one playoff appearance since 2019. Since drafting JB, Boston has made it to 6 conference finals in 8 years, 4 in 5 and 3 straight. It's really a crazy run of success that needs a second title to be cemented as the best team since the Durant warriors, but 6 of our top 8 are still in their prime. This team has underperformed their talent in the playoffs exactly once in the last 8 years (2023). I'll believe they're dead when I see it.
Good work.

It's 100% about REST with this group. They had a record-setting performance last year, they have nothing to prove during the regular season.

Really no need for any of the TOP6 to play over 70 games. Next man up. Let THIBS & the rest of the NBA slug it out night after night for 8 months.
 

Auger34

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I just saw Simmons saying they aren’t going to make the ECF because he sat close to the floor 2 games in a row and didn’t like something? This team is 100% repeating
 

128

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I just saw Simmons saying they aren’t going to make the ECF because he sat close to the floor 2 games in a row and didn’t like something? This team is 100% repeating
Somebody must have posted clickbait from his most recent podcast, which is actually thoughtful and full of good points. The C's segment starts the podcast and lasts about 20 minutes.
 

Eddie Jurak

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They are not playing as well as last year but from an overall stat perspective, they are still playing pretty f'ng good. They are just getting some bad shooting luck.
If you want to argue that bad shooting luck is getting in their heads and causing them to take bad shots, to not trust their offense, to not play well on the defensive end, to make all sorts of mental lapses late in games... well, maybe, but that alone is a sign that the team maybe doesn't have it this year.

I think they have played a lot of basketball over the past year and over the past three years, and they are just spent, mentally and physically, the mental being a bigger issue for them right now than the physical.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Somebody must have posted clickbait from his most recent podcast, which is actually thoughtful and full of good points. The C's segment starts the podcast and lasts about 20 minutes.
Link: View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4H9__nVWQw8


Simmons says a lot of crazy shit that causes people to dismiss him, but I think he's still a good observer of basketball and worth taking seriously.
 

RorschachsMask

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This is the stat I've been looking for:

View: https://twitter.com/itsbrianbarrett/status/1883166533045854246


Watching the games, I can't stop thinking that they've completely forgotten how to run a fast break. JB used to be the best player in the NBA on the break and now it's like they can't get an easy bucket to save their lives.
I do think the JB on the break thing has been a bit of a misnomer, tbh. He’s only have one season in the last five where he’s been over 60th percentile in transition efficiency, in 22-23.

He just did it more often than most guys, even this year he’s 8th in transition possessions per game. He’s definitely dangerous on the break, he just rushes it a lot.
 

bankshot1

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To run a fast break you need

D
Rebounding
an outlet pass
Maybe another pass to a guy streaking to the hoop
and then finishing at the hoop

Does this sound remotely like how they play the game?

They'd rather take a pull-up 3 than push for a 2 and 1

I would love to see more pace and for them to use their elite skills to greater advantage. When they move the ball, over the course of a season they are close to unstoppable.

lately the Celts D is more like an F

And they give up too many 2nd chance points.

And while Tatum is a good rebounder, their best instinctive boarder is 6'1"
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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This is the stat I've been looking for:

View: https://twitter.com/itsbrianbarrett/status/1883166533045854246


Watching the games, I can't stop thinking that they've completely forgotten how to run a fast break. JB used to be the best player in the NBA on the break and now it's like they can't get an easy bucket to save their lives.
Thanks for posting. Matches what I think I've been seeing - Cs haven't been getting as many easy buckets as they used to. My eye test suggests that it's connected with their lack of defensive pressure but I have nothing to back that up.
 

benhogan

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ALiveH

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imho, celtics need to shake up chemistry by making a significant addition at the deadline. Long-term position of need is center, given KP's injury history and Al's age so i'd like to see them get a Big.

Santi Aldama, Walker Kessler and Moe Wagner are good young Bigs that i've seen some articles say their teams would be open to moving on from. the first two make minimal salaries that can be matched by non-rotation pieces while Moe Wagner would need some creativity.

Edit: Moe wagner out for year - d'oh
 
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Bunt4aTriple

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imho, celtics need to shake up chemistry by making a significant addition at the deadline. Long-term position of need is center, given KP's injury history and Al's age so i'd like to see them get a Big.

Santi Aldama, Walker Kessler and Moe Wagner are good young Bigs that i've seen some articles say their teams would be open to moving on from. the first two make minimal salaries that can be matched by non-rotation pieces while Moe Wagner would need some creativity.
Creativity, as in getting Wagner a new ACL in order to play this year?
 

ALiveH

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Creativity, as in getting Wagner a new ACL in order to play this year?
lol, my bad. cursory research.

Aldama or Kessler then. Kessler doesn't shoot 3s but apart from that is a really good player. Aldama fits in the offensive system better but doesn't provide much rim protection.
 

Euclis20

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It's remarkable how much better the offense looks when our starting backcourt is hitting their open 3s at a decent clip (and how much better the defense looks when you don't give up transition opportunities). Tatum played like garbage (including having 3 of our 4 non-garbage time turnovers) and JB/KP didn't exactly excel either, but they did a great job holding the mavs at arms length for most of the 2nd half.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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lol, my bad. cursory research.

Aldama or Kessler then. Kessler doesn't shoot 3s but apart from that is a really good player. Aldama fits in the offensive system better but doesn't provide much rim protection.
Aldama makes just under $4M. BOS as 2nd apron team, can’t aggregate salaries. So the only way BOS could get Aldama is by trading Springer and adding assets.

If POBOBS could have gotten Aldama for Springer and a protected 1st he probably would have done it already. And anything more than that becomes an overpay IMO.

I’m pretty sure BOS has no interest in Kessler - he’d have to be traded for Springer and Kessler, Queta, Kortney, and Tillman seem to be an overload of big men who can’t do much offensively.
 

Auger34

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Aldama makes just under $4M. BOS as 2nd apron team, can’t aggregate salaries. So the only way BOS could get Aldama is by trading Springer and adding assets.

If POBOBS could have gotten Aldama for Springer and a protected 1st he probably would have done it already. And anything more than that becomes an overpay IMO.

I’m pretty sure BOS has no interest in Kessler - he’d have to be traded for Springer and Kessler, Queta, Kortney, and Tillman seem to be an overload of big men who can’t do much offensively.
I think the easy answer here is that neither of those teams have any interest in a realistic offer for those players.

Springer is a slightly negative contract and I don’t think a protected 1st matters that much. I think there’s a 0.0% chance that Ainge would trade Kessler for Springer and a protected 1st. I am guessing that Memphis values Aldama a good deal more than Springer.

I know he had one pretty good game but I am pretty damn sure springer isn’t thought of as even a slightly positive asset
 

HomeRunBaker

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Indeed, he's been good all season.

A PP-sized contract at the end of the season wouldn't be the worst move
Wait a minute. Hold on right here. What year is this? @benhogan advocating to opening up the checkbook for a fungible backup big? I’m going to roll back over and wake up again….something is not right with the world this morning. ;)
 

tbrown_01923

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Wait a minute. Hold on right here. What year is this? @benhogan advocating to opening up the checkbook for a fungible backup big? I’m going to roll back over and wake up again….something is not right with the world this morning. ;)
Love this! Give it to @benhogan !!!

Kornets a smart player, and the goof ball personality seals it. I was surprised he came back on this deal, i thought someone would have offered in the 5mm range... but yeah consolidate Tillman salary into kornet
 

RorschachsMask

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TS by month for the starting five

Tatum 63/61/60/54
Jaylen 51/58/57/50
White 73/61/57/52
Porzingis 67/57/64
Jrue 69/56/56/58

This is why I can’t be too concerned, it’s such an outlier month for Tatum, White, and Jaylen when it comes to shooting the ball.
 

lexrageorge

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TS by month for the starting five

Tatum 63/61/60/54
Jaylen 51/58/57/50
White 73/61/57/52
Porzingis 67/57/64
Jrue 69/56/56/58

This is why I can’t be too concerned, it’s such an outlier month for Tatum, White, and Jaylen when it comes to shooting the ball.
To me, the question is whether:

1.) The shooting variance is simply unmasking poor play and bad habits, much like it did in the 2023 playoffs; or

2.) The decline in play is something that is being reinforced by bad shooting luck.

I'm much more in door #2 with this team. Biggest concern remains whether the team can overcome the inevitable mental and physical fatigue from playing more high pressure games than everyone else over the past 12 months when the playoffs start.
 

bankshot1

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"... Biggest concern remains whether the team can overcome the inevitable mental and physical fatigue from playing more high pressure games than everyone else over the past 12 months when the playoffs start."


This was posted in the Celts-Mavs thread a little after they won #18

This year there were a lot of Celts and a sophomore coach with lofty goals and a pretty big chip on their respective shoulders. There was a lot to prove and they did. Wire to wire they were the best.

They were a highly motivated group. Next year it will be a big part of CJMs to do list to keep the hunger, motivation and attention to the game plan at the fore in their quest to repeat. It's hard to repeat for lots of reasons, and I suspect it will be for the best team in the league and by a wide margin.
I'm not putting recent wobbles on CJM, but its his job to get these guys in the right frame of mind, and strategically/psychologically get them hungry enough to put away individual stuff, (ISO/hero ball) focus on team play, and want to stuff themselves at the NBA's June buffet.
 

HomeRunBaker

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"... Biggest concern remains whether the team can overcome the inevitable mental and physical fatigue from playing more high pressure games than everyone else over the past 12 months when the playoffs start."


This was posted in the Celts-Mavs thread a little after they won #18



I'm not putting recent wobbles on CJM, but its his job to get these guys in the right frame of mind, and strategically/psychologically get them hungry enough to put away individual stuff, (ISO/hero ball) focus on team play, and want to stuff themselves at the NBA's June buffet.
It is all of these things that are affecting the teams 3-pt shooting pct. It is not random.
 

bankshot1

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It is all of these things that are affecting the teams 3-pt shooting pct. It is not random.
I didn't say it was random. I've been very specific about what I thought ails our Celts. From lazy D to poor ball movement and poor spacing and poor shot selection to fatigue due to no real down time for the Olympians in the group. And there may be other factors as well that are less obvious to fans.


I reposted something from June 2024 in response to a comment today. My old post said that being the best might not be enough to repeat and it was CJM's responsibility to keep the champs motivated and hungry and on script.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I didn't say it was random. I've been very specific about what I thought ails our Celts. From lazy D to poor ball movement and poor spacing and poor shot selection to fatigue due to no real down time for the Olympians in the group. And there may be other factors as well that are less obvious to fans.


I reposted something from June 2024 in response to a comment today. My old post said that being the best might not be enough to repeat and it was CJM's responsibility to keep the champs motivated and hungry and on script.
Agreed. I didn't mean to insinuate that we were in disagreement.
 

Van Everyman

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DWhite with I think a pretty big tell in his postgame comments to Washburn:

When asked about his struggles, White attributed the change in offense with the return of Porzingis and “that changes some things and I’ve shot it like crap, so those two things come together and you don’t score very many points. Just going to continue to do what I need to do to be prepared, just know that it’s going to turn, and try to make shots when I’m wide open.”
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/01/25/sports/derrick-white-jrue-holiday-celtics-mavericks/

This completely tracks with what my eyes tell me: that after cruising for the first six weeks, mixing Kristaps back into the rotation threw off their rhythm on the offensive end. My eyes also tell me that Porzingis is looking much better on both ends of the court, which can’t but help Jrue and Derrick settle back in.
 

HomeRunBaker

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DWhite with I think a pretty big tell in his postgame comments to Washburn:


https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/01/25/sports/derrick-white-jrue-holiday-celtics-mavericks/

This completely tracks with what my eyes tell me: that after cruising for the first six weeks, mixing Kristaps back into the rotation threw off their rhythm on the offensive end. My eyes also tell me that Porzingis is looking much better on both ends of the court, which can’t but help Jrue and Derrick settle back in.
This is consistent to our results from last season when KP was out. Sometimes too much talent is a detriment in a sport where "fit" is critical to team success. This plays into those favoring trading KP rather than Jrue. KP for Myles?
 

benhogan

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Wait a minute. Hold on right here. What year is this? @benhogan advocating to opening up the checkbook for a fungible backup big? I’m going to roll back over and wake up again….something is not right with the world this morning. ;)
Ha ha, fair comment, I'm a tight bastard when it comes to those back-up BIGz. BUT Luke has earned his cheddar.

He's up to 1600 minutes over the last 2 seasons with extremely positive On-Off 12.9/3.7 (2000 mins makes me a believer). 3yrs/$20M for 20mpg is great value for the eventual Horford retirement.

At the end of the day, I suspect Brad will be forced to surround JAYs/White with cheap contracts like PP, Hauser, KornQ
and KP on a discounted part-time contract (my pipe dream)
 

lovegtm

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This is consistent to our results from last season when KP was out. Sometimes too much talent is a detriment in a sport where "fit" is critical to team success. This plays into those favoring trading KP rather than Jrue. KP for Myles?
Yes, if you watch the first ~25 games of the season (and even last year's playoffs), they'd become an offensive machine. They were a very different team than the one that Brad acquired KP for, one that used to bog down, not be able to exploit rotation, etc.

KP has some amazing moments, but the machine doesn't function quite the same way with him.

I know they missed him against Dallas, but that was more about the 3rd string centers being replacement players, and not something specific about KP's style being necessary for Boston's offense.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ha ha, fair comment, I'm a tight bastard when it comes to those back-up BIGz. BUT Luke has earned his cheddar.

He's up to 1600 minutes over the last 2 seasons with extremely positive On-Off 12.9/3.7 (2000 mins makes me a believer). 3yrs/$20M for 20mpg is great value for the eventual Horford retirement.

At the end of the day, I suspect Brad will be forced to surround JAYs/White with cheap contracts like PP, Hauser, KornQ
and KP on a discounted part-time contract (my pipe dream)
Remember those numbers were mostly against second units and spot minutes to avoid bad matchups. A lot of things change when going up against starting frontcourt players and wings who can target you in switches while not being able to spot your minutes to matchups. I don't think he gets anywhere near that contract amount but we'll see.
 

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Hoping the C's can avoid one of HRB's dreaded "schedule losses" tonite at the Garden.
 

Euclis20

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Hoping the C's can avoid one of HRB's dreaded "schedule losses" tonite at the Garden.
Schedule losses or not, can't rely on this Celtics team to string consecutive good games together. Hopefully they'll be able to get up for this one (Ime plus the Rockets just beat the Cavs twice), but I'm not hopeful.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Apparently there's a trade market for Jaden Springer: Celtics' Jaden Springer Viewed as Trade Target For Multiple Teams Ahead of Deadline.

So Cs can get rid of him, save in excess of $12M on the luxury tax (the savings goes up the longer they keep him) and I'm sure they have LW4 (and others) waiting in the wings.

OTOH, they certainly don't have anyone with his defensive potential under 30 on the roster and would be hard pressed to find someone. He's also shooting 4-8 from 3P over the last two games he played (with one heave that was blocked)! :)

I'd personally get LW4 but it will be interesting to see what POBOBS does.
 

Van Everyman

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Schedule losses or not, can't rely on this Celtics team to string consecutive good games together. Hopefully they'll be able to get up for this one (Ime plus the Rockets just beat the Cavs twice), but I'm not hopeful.
This feels overly pessimistic. Yes, they’ve struggled over the last month but there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic they will snap out of this soon – Porzingis is looking great, DWhite and Holliday are coming off a terrific shooting night after a long slump and we really handled the Rockets last time (possibly bc of the extra juice w Ime on the opposing bench).
 

Euclis20

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This feels overly pessimistic. Yes, they’ve struggled over the last month but there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic they will snap out of this soon – Porzingis is looking great, DWhite and Holliday are coming off a terrific shooting night after a long slump and we really handled the Rockets last time (possibly bc of the extra juice w Ime on the opposing bench).
I'm pretty bullish on this team in the spring, but I'd like to think I'm being realistic on where they are now. I think they snap out of it either after a long break (which we're all hoping isn't the offseason) or the playoffs.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Only one game ahead of the 3rd seed now, still fairly clear of 4th or lower for the time being.

Joe seemed to not know what to do with Al out of the game at the last minute. Even with Brooks & Thompson having career games, they gave up too many long runs to this team.
 

The Mort Report

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Hard to think this is a championship team.
You mean the team tied with the 4th best record in the league who has struggled like hell to shoot the ball for a month "submarining" their record? A team that has excelled on 2 tough west coast trips in that time? Have they been out of sorts? Sure, but it's the middle on January.

Can you explain why this isn't a championship team? And on a macro level, not nit-picking on the last month or so. What are the systematic problems with this team?
 

benhogan

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You mean the team tied with the 4th best record in the league who has struggled like hell to shoot the ball for a month "submarining" their record? A team that has excelled on 2 tough west coast trips in that time? Have they been out of sorts? Sure, but it's the middle on January.

Can you explain why this isn't a championship team? And on a macro level, not nit-picking on the last month or so. What are the systematic problems with this team?
They are certainly involved in the championship mix. BUT the systematic problem is they are worn down from continuously playing/competing for over 18 months.

Small nit to pick, but I'm pumping the brakes on the 6-2 West Coast trips. GS/Clippers/Dallas were all missing key players. The Lakers showed up healthy/rested & roasted Boston from the tip. Joker didn't play & much like the Clipper game the C's struggled against their B-team. OKC manhandled Boston in Q4, which is happening a little too often for a team hanging their hat on being able to TURN IT ON when the playoffs occur.

I could list many things, other than shooting, that look off over the last 21 games (11-10). A huge culprit is their inability to get stops on defense. The perimeter/on-ball defense has been rotten/passive for a while now, which has led to players like Thompson, Brooks & others having career nights.
 

Silverdude2167

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They are certainly involved in the championship mix. BUT the systematic problem is they are worn down from continuously playing/competing for over 18 months.

Small nit to pick, but I'm pumping the brakes on the 6-2 West Coast trips. GS/Clippers/Dallas were all missing key players. The Lakers showed up healthy/rested & roasted Boston from the tip. Joker didn't play & much like the Clipper game the C's struggled against their B-team. OKC manhandled Boston in Q4, which is happening a little too often for a team hanging their hat on being able to TURN IT ON when the playoffs occur.

I could list many things, other than shooting, that look off over the last 21 games (11-10). A huge culprit is their inability to get stops on defense. The perimeter/on-ball defense has been rotten/passive for a while now, which has led to players like Thompson, Brooks & others having career nights.
I don't disagree with your point that they are tired, but saying they can't turn it on when the Playoffs occur because they are not turning it on in the middle of January while being tired does not square.

These are the exact situations where you would expect a coasting and tired team not to turn it on.

They may fail because they are tired, but using December and January basketball as reasons they won't be able to compete in April is a bridge too far for me.
Hopefully, they can get rest over the second half of the season and enter the playoffs healthy and fresh.
 

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Rockets shot 80 percent (8 for 10) from the floor in the fourth quarter. For all of the C's misses at the other end, their porous defense was the biggest problem.
 

Van Everyman

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FWIW, it has been my sense that Joe has been purposely pumping the brakes all year on letting this team ball out the way they did last season.

Last year, it felt like he had his starting 5 on the court a lot, with really only Hauser and Al playing super meaningful minutes. And he was content to let them run the score way, way up.

This season has felt almost from the jump like Joe has been avoiding that. Ever since the opening Knicks thrashing, he has consistently been mixing a lot more guys in—Pritchard, amd Queta most obviously but also guys like Peterson and Walsh—giving more guys like KP nights off. It’s almost like the only games Joe has had them go all out for have been the marquee matchups. Which they’ve generally won.

Maybe I’m overthinking this and it is just that the team isn’t capable of putting stretches together and the league has adjusted. But despite it all, every this team has absolutely had to have a win this season, they still have gotten it. Which makes me think that the rotation stuff and some of this grind and inconsistency might be designed by Joe to save their legs and give them something to fight through. And Joe is just enough of a psycho to do something like that.