General Celtics thread: 24-25 edition
- Thread starter RorschachsMask
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BOS is currently 15th in 3P% at 36.6% on 49.8 3PA/g after finishing last year in 2nd at 38.8% on 42.5 3PA/g.
I know people will say that it's not unusual for % to drop as volume goes up and that may be true. But here are the numbers per shot type:
The Cs are generating almost 2 more wide open 3Ps a game, which I think everyone would agree is a good thing since they are shooting them at almost 39%. They are generating 3 more open 3Ps and 1 more contested 3Ps. The contested 3Ps is obviously not an efficient shot but my guess is that a lot of those are at the end of shot clock.
Still, the biggest takeaway to me is that they just aren't shooting the ball as well as they did last year. Taking 3 more open 3Ps at 36.4% seems very different than at 38.8%. I think a good portion of this may be attributable to injuries - Sam's back, Jrue's and JB's shoulders, KP trying to make his way back.
If BOS had shot the % they did last year, they'd average approximately 1 more 3P/game and they'd be a dynasty. Obviously, BOS has the talent to win (and they have) being an average 3P shooting team but if they go back to being good - not even great - they are going to go on a roll.
I know people will say that it's not unusual for % to drop as volume goes up and that may be true. But here are the numbers per shot type:
2024-25 a/g |
2024-25% |
2023-24 a/g |
2023-24 % | |
| 2-4’ (tight) | 6.9 |
30.9 |
5.6 |
30.3 |
| 4-6’ (open) | 20.4 |
36.4 |
17.4 |
38.8 |
| 6+’ (wide open) | 21.3 |
38.9 |
19.4 |
41.6 |
The Cs are generating almost 2 more wide open 3Ps a game, which I think everyone would agree is a good thing since they are shooting them at almost 39%. They are generating 3 more open 3Ps and 1 more contested 3Ps. The contested 3Ps is obviously not an efficient shot but my guess is that a lot of those are at the end of shot clock.
Still, the biggest takeaway to me is that they just aren't shooting the ball as well as they did last year. Taking 3 more open 3Ps at 36.4% seems very different than at 38.8%. I think a good portion of this may be attributable to injuries - Sam's back, Jrue's and JB's shoulders, KP trying to make his way back.
If BOS had shot the % they did last year, they'd average approximately 1 more 3P/game and they'd be a dynasty. Obviously, BOS has the talent to win (and they have) being an average 3P shooting team but if they go back to being good - not even great - they are going to go on a roll.
People HATE this answer, but it's probably the same answer as when they shot the lights out in 2022 for the first 25 games, and then regressed, or why Cleveland is shooting 40% now.
"There is more variance in heaven and on earth, Horatio..."
So, should they just keep playing their game and hoisting threes? Or does Mazzullaball need a new wrinkle?
Also: is it just me or is every team we play now making a high percentage of 3PA against us? It feels like every night our opponents are having an all time shooting night from beyond the arc. What is that about exactly and, again, how do we adjust?
FWIW, Washburn made the point the other day that PP is getting defended a little differently now that everyone knows he’s on the court to hoist threes and they’re forcing him to drive more where he’s less dangerous.
It’s interesting because it feels to me that 1-5 this is def. still the best team in the NBA but bench depth and age do make things little closer with the OKC and Cleveland types.
Also: is it just me or is every team we play now making a high percentage of 3PA against us? It feels like every night our opponents are having an all time shooting night from beyond the arc. What is that about exactly and, again, how do we adjust?
FWIW, Washburn made the point the other day that PP is getting defended a little differently now that everyone knows he’s on the court to hoist threes and they’re forcing him to drive more where he’s less dangerous.
It’s interesting because it feels to me that 1-5 this is def. still the best team in the NBA but bench depth and age do make things little closer with the OKC and Cleveland types.
I (and I think most of us) would be happy if it were variance.
I would be lmore concerned if it was largely caused by injuries, only because the injuries I have heard about are the nagging type and it is unclear when (if?) they will clear up. Jrue has already mentioned he's going to have manage his shoulder this year. Who knows about Sam's back? And no one ever knows what JT might be going through since he always plays.
An entire rough rough game would've been slightly more concerning to me, whereas the rough half screamed to me tired legs. Different sport and all that but I listened to McEnroe on Andy Roddick's podcast this morning where he discussed the 1985 US Open Finals: TLDR version is he had a LONG 5 set semis on saturday eve and had to play Lendl in the finals (who smoked Connors in straights). McEnroe breaks early in first and storms out to a lead...but loses in a breaker, and then gets beaten pretty easily the next two sets. It might be apples and oranges but given the timing of my listen figured Id share.
That's the thing about minor variance though: whenever it's happening, everyone always has tons of plausible reasons, and then 90% of the time it turns out to be minor variants.
I remember in 2022 when everyone had tons of reasons why the Celtics insane shooting start from three was definitely sustainable...and it was just variance.
I think Jaylens shot looks a bit broken and Horford maybe losing his legs, those are two guys whose percentages are down. I think Hausers percentages will come up if his back is better.
Plus Jrue shot 43 pct last year and I don’t think that’s his true ability.
Plus Jrue shot 43 pct last year and I don’t think that’s his true ability.
Denver is a tough matchup for PP with them having so many long and rangy 3&D types. When MPJ wasn’t shading PP it was Watson or Strawther. The only time PP could even get close to getting a shot off was when some type of scramble was occurring and he got lost. Even then the Nuggets recovered quickly to contest.
Is it? At 50 shots per game, that's 1 made three-pointer. That's not nothing, but I'm not sure if it's anything.
Well, it's the difference between a EFG% of 58.2 versus 54.9, which seems like something.
Of course, it may matter less given the Cs offense, but a team with a 0.0 Net Rtg would be ranked 16th in the league; adding three points to the Net Rtg (+3.0) means that team is 9th.
From Jay King (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6046331/2025/01/08/celtics-kristaps-porzingis-nba-denver/):
KP says DEN was the first game he felt close to normal and he's still at 80-ish%. BOS can (and I expect will) get a lot better (assuming they stay relatively healthy).
The numbers highlight how much the adjustment has tested the Celtics. Many of the team’s lulls recently have come with Porziņģis available and in the lineup. Since his season debut on Nov. 25, the team has outscored opponents by just 3.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the court while dominating by 15.7 points per 100 possessions without him. Since his initial return, the Celtics have gone 5-1 when he’s missed games and 8-6 with him available. The two most lopsided wins during that stretch, a 54-point victory against the Raptors and a 37-point victory against the Pacers, came with Porziņģis sidelined by a sprained ankle.
The Celtics starting lineup, a great strength last season, has lacked cohesion during limited playing time. Over 103 minutes, the Boston starters have been outscored by 29 points with a hideous offensive rating of 105.8 and net rating of minus-11.3. Even over a tiny sample size, that type of performance is not what one would expect from a first unit loaded with star power. It underlines how well the Celtics’ normal rhythm has hidden itself at times lately. With just seven games of a healthy starting lineup so far, Mazzulla suggested his team is still working through some issues that most groups address before the regular season even begins.
KP says DEN was the first game he felt close to normal and he's still at 80-ish%. BOS can (and I expect will) get a lot better (assuming they stay relatively healthy).
Matches the eye test too. They've looked very awkward with him on the court, offensively. They either use him for spacing/pick-and-pop (where Horford provides a similar effect anyway), or they sort of force-feed him in the post, with offensive bog-down or turnovers when they can't get it to him easily.
I guess this is the reason you bring him back and don't do the "shrinkwrap forever" plan: they need to actually integrate him, because right now they're much, much better offensively with Luke Kornet on the floor (eye test and net rating: Luke cuts and passes really well).
Clearly a team playing Luke Kornet is much more capped in potential than one playing Kristaps Porzingis, so they need to figure this out.
if teams are hot shooting 3's they will---where we have an advantage is team D, al our players can drive and we can run 4 centers at teams---I wouldn't mind seeing more of an old school inside game at times--slows the game down, wears down the other big team's big guys and does open up drives and 3's
You can't play an inside game if the other team is consistently helping hard. You have to generate and knock down 3s at that point. There isn't another option.
(This wasn't the case under the old illegal defense rules, which is why slowing the game down in the post, over and over, was a viable offensive option in the 80s and 90s.)
One thing I was noticing during the Nuggets game: Jrue was WIDE open for 3 a lot. And unlike some games earlier in the season when he was being left open, he was knocking these shots down. It feels like most teams are hard to beat when they are shooting high percentage 3PA, but that the Celtics, due to their versatility, are nearly impossible to beat.
If I had to say one thing that seems a little different about this year‘s team compared to last it is that they are a bit more susceptible to bad shooting nights and, on the flipside, great shooting nights from their opponents.
This may be more appropriate for the Mazzullaball thread. But what I’m going to be looking for from Joe these next several weeks is how, and sometimes whether, he adjusts. To this point he’s shown an incredible ability to maximize his players’ versatility and physicality. He has an approach he believes works and refuses to let a bad shooting or a low effort night shake his faith in that approach or his players’ ability to execute it. But I also do wonder a bit whether there’s a tendency with Joe to avoid making adjustments when those adjustments would almost certainly result in a W.
I’m not upset or particularly concerned about it. But it’s something to watch.
If I had to say one thing that seems a little different about this year‘s team compared to last it is that they are a bit more susceptible to bad shooting nights and, on the flipside, great shooting nights from their opponents.
This may be more appropriate for the Mazzullaball thread. But what I’m going to be looking for from Joe these next several weeks is how, and sometimes whether, he adjusts. To this point he’s shown an incredible ability to maximize his players’ versatility and physicality. He has an approach he believes works and refuses to let a bad shooting or a low effort night shake his faith in that approach or his players’ ability to execute it. But I also do wonder a bit whether there’s a tendency with Joe to avoid making adjustments when those adjustments would almost certainly result in a W.
I’m not upset or particularly concerned about it. But it’s something to watch.
But which adjustments would you make? They already do an extremely good job at demolishing isos when teams aren't helping from shooters. That used to be something of an issue, but isn't anymore.
The problems come when teams DO help from shooters, and the Celtics don't hit the shots (or don't space well, or don't read the 2-on-1s, but the end goal of those processes is often a 3-point shot).
Outside of 3-point shooting, there aren't really good adjustments to massive paint help in the post-illegal defense era.
The flip side to this is when teams don't have enough shooters, a good defensive team can just strangle the floor. They are basically loading up on the strong side and telling the offensive team that you don't really have an answer to this.
We saw this over and over again when teams did it to BOS and gave Marcus as many shots as he wanted; we see BOS do this to teams all of the time; we watched Josh Giddey played off the floor because he couldn't make shots; and we saw BOS do this to DAL when they gave DJJ and Josh Green all of the above-the-break 3Ps they wanted to shoot.
Defenses can't stop everything but they are willing to give up low % shots - like RWB 3Ps, even if he does hit 4 out of 5 on some nights.
Yup. The only real counters are:
- roster change. Dallas went and got Klay Thompson because of what Boston did.
- be willing to shoot, once you've roster change'd into having those shooters
- have your non-shooters be tall and able to pass/roll/play in space
- have your non-shooters be really, really elite screeners, passers, and cutters. GSW gets insane mileage out of Draymond, who's not a scoring threat in iso or from 3, because he's so smart, physical, and good at that stuff
Notably, "just try something different on offense" is not a counter to teams loading heavily to the paint.
Hell yeah.
View: https://twitter.com/BobbyKrivitsky/status/1877483872151286023
Blake Griffin on @7PMinBrooklyn on playing in Boston:
“I loved Boston. I love those guys. I was so happy for them when they won...I played in LA for the Clippers. I played in New York for the Nets. It's a Lakers town. It's a Knicks town. That was the first time I really played for a team where it was like, everybody in that city is rocking with you. I went out to dinner 10 times, no check, you know what I mean? In Boston, like I said, I'm playing every five.”
View: https://twitter.com/BobbyKrivitsky/status/1877483872151286023
Blake Griffin on @7PMinBrooklyn on playing in Boston:
“I loved Boston. I love those guys. I was so happy for them when they won...I played in LA for the Clippers. I played in New York for the Nets. It's a Lakers town. It's a Knicks town. That was the first time I really played for a team where it was like, everybody in that city is rocking with you. I went out to dinner 10 times, no check, you know what I mean? In Boston, like I said, I'm playing every five.”
IIRC, according to the betting experts, the first home game after a tough road trip usually tends to favor the visiting team.
That was pretty gross. One of their worst offensive performances I can recall recently, including the OKC game. Really out of sync in the 2nd half against a meh defense.
Probably the "first game home after a road trip" thing, because the mental engagement looked off.
Probably the "first game home after a road trip" thing, because the mental engagement looked off.
They also looked like they were running in quicksand.
They could use Brissett on nights like these but understand that's a luxury they can't afford and likely won't matter in the playoffs.
They could use Brissett on nights like these but understand that's a luxury they can't afford and likely won't matter in the playoffs.
Stat of the game: Tatum had 8 turnovers
The single play that sums the whole game up for me:
View: https://twitter.com/RealBobManning/status/1877903517597474848
That was the Celtics defense for the first 6 minutes of Q4 when the Kings dropped 24 pts on them.
I suspect the Pels will feel some backlash on Sunday
I'm generally a "shots weren't falling" optimistic about the Cs, taking the long view, but I think it's clear at this point that other teams are doing good work to reduce their quality threes.
View: https://twitter.com/SteveBHoop/status/1877937129176658310
Most of the Dick Lipe stuff is just interesting randomness, but the declining 3s made month-to-month says something about teams getting smarter about defending Mazzullaball. Teams are picking them up above the three-point line more consistently, making it harder to get into their offense, and extending out pressure so the long threes aren't really open. This should open up more space for the lane and twos, but as we saw last night when Jaylen was feasting on twos early, with the Kings easily keeping pace via the three, the Cs haven't really been able to increase their efficiency with the two enough to counter that extension of the defense.
I'm not really worried, but I think the consistent failure largely comes from KP. He's awful guarding the perimeter and gives up way, way too many open threes (the ugly sequence above is largely his fault, if you ask me), he takes a lot of not great threes and misses them (.349 on the year), and his rim protection is sort of good, but it feels like there are many drives per game where he just doesn't quite get there (and his 1.4 blocks per game is the lowest for him since the pandemic).
The Cs seem pretty clearly better without him (8-7 in his 15 games played) and I think it's largely because he's even less switchable than Kornet. Maybe he's playing himself into shape and form, which is understandable, but I'd rather have Hauser on the floor than him at this point.
View: https://twitter.com/SteveBHoop/status/1877937129176658310
Most of the Dick Lipe stuff is just interesting randomness, but the declining 3s made month-to-month says something about teams getting smarter about defending Mazzullaball. Teams are picking them up above the three-point line more consistently, making it harder to get into their offense, and extending out pressure so the long threes aren't really open. This should open up more space for the lane and twos, but as we saw last night when Jaylen was feasting on twos early, with the Kings easily keeping pace via the three, the Cs haven't really been able to increase their efficiency with the two enough to counter that extension of the defense.
I'm not really worried, but I think the consistent failure largely comes from KP. He's awful guarding the perimeter and gives up way, way too many open threes (the ugly sequence above is largely his fault, if you ask me), he takes a lot of not great threes and misses them (.349 on the year), and his rim protection is sort of good, but it feels like there are many drives per game where he just doesn't quite get there (and his 1.4 blocks per game is the lowest for him since the pandemic).
The Cs seem pretty clearly better without him (8-7 in his 15 games played) and I think it's largely because he's even less switchable than Kornet. Maybe he's playing himself into shape and form, which is understandable, but I'd rather have Hauser on the floor than him at this point.
It is hard to look at that play and not think something is wrong with the team. And part of why opponents are outshooting us from three of late is that we have been leaving them wide fucking open way too often.
This team cannot bring it, game in and game out. Not physically or mentally. Malaise is a good word for them. They succeeded in getting themsleves up for the key road trip and playing very well for most of it, so we know that is still there. But they immediately crashed on their return, physically and mentally, against a .500 team.
They played deep into the playoffs last year (obviously), then 3 starters to the Olympics, now everyone is gunning for them, and they have had more injuries than last year plus had to deal with a rehabbing KP trying to play his way back into form. Maybe this is all normal and understandable.
But it feels like an open question whether this team will recover and turn it back on for the playoffs or not. Either way this regular season is going to look a lot more like Joe's first year than his second, albeit for different reasons.
I don’t think the two bolded words are necessary - seems completely normal/understandable to me. And I think it’s fair, as it always is, to question if they can “flick the switch” come playoff time. I have more belief this squad can than that infamous kyrie lead team, but I certainly don’t think it’s a guarantee. TLDR I agree, just with slightly different framing.
Look at Nostradamus here!Look on the bright side, we'll have a 12k word analysis from EJ detailing how the world is ending within about 14 hours.
I'm not going to argue with that. I think there's a chance that Joe can get them through this in an ultimately productive way.
Realistically I think you just kind of have to hope they can flip the switch in May. Give them the chance to do it. If they flame out, then you break up the band. They may be able to improve on the margins this year but that's not going to be what the season ultimately hinges on. It comes down to whether their top 8 can gel, they bring the defensive intensity every night, and don't go into a shooting slump.
Edit: and get/stay healthy, of course.
Edit: and get/stay healthy, of course.
The infamous Kyrie team wasn't 27-11 with a +10 net rating. They looked disjointed, and it showed in the record and point differential.
My biggest worry, by far, is that KP's post foul-hunting shit might not work anymore. He just doesn't get the calls he used to, and that dramatically lowers his value in the post. Couple that with teams stretching him out on D, and you start to wish the team had a different guy there.
Fatigue from the playoff run and then the long summer is a concern too.
For positives? Jrue has looked pretty fresh after his early season injuries and struggles. I think they have the core to turn it on and lock in, but the center situation is getting somewhat scarier.
My biggest worry, by far, is that KP's post foul-hunting shit might not work anymore. He just doesn't get the calls he used to, and that dramatically lowers his value in the post. Couple that with teams stretching him out on D, and you start to wish the team had a different guy there.
Fatigue from the playoff run and then the long summer is a concern too.
For positives? Jrue has looked pretty fresh after his early season injuries and struggles. I think they have the core to turn it on and lock in, but the center situation is getting somewhat scarier.
To be clear I only brought up that kyrie team as a measuring stick of sorts Wrt switch flicking. I was at about a 3/10 on that spectrum for that team, and probably around an 8 for this years team.
You can tell when the team is loafing, and last night was it. Classic trap game, coming off an intense road trip and with Golden State up next. This team is out of year-long prove-it mode and doing its best to conserve energy for the long haul. Classic modern NBA.
He’s still an awesome player, but between that issue and the injuries, I think atm I’m favoring keeping a wisened Jrue*.
* Reserves right to change mind
One thing that’s coming into focus for me is that imo KP is the guy who should go next offseason, not Jrue. There’s too much risk/variance with KP, and yeah his value has gone down since the NBA stopped calling those post fouls mid last season.
He’s still an awesome player, but between that issue and the injuries, I think atm I’m favoring keeping a wisened Jrue*.
* Reserves right to change mind
Jrue & Jaylen picking up the on-ball defense against the opposing ball handlers when they cross the halfcourt will solve many of the Celtic problems (+ create more live ball turnovers). Without that, the Celtics will; be a good but not great defense, win
when they outshoot the other side, and play like a 50-ish win team.
That defensive style is extremely taxing, understandably, they are trying to conserve for the long haul. WBCD made a good point that Brissett's energy last year combatted a lot of that last season. Our deep bench WINGs: Walsh, Baylor, Springer, and Tillman aren't capable of providing an uptick in energy/play. Going double BIG has been a nice band-aid but is inconsistent when the opponent goes wide/small.
100% confident that Jrue & Jaylen can turn it on when needed until then there will be turbulence, so buckle up.
when they outshoot the other side, and play like a 50-ish win team.
That defensive style is extremely taxing, understandably, they are trying to conserve for the long haul. WBCD made a good point that Brissett's energy last year combatted a lot of that last season. Our deep bench WINGs: Walsh, Baylor, Springer, and Tillman aren't capable of providing an uptick in energy/play. Going double BIG has been a nice band-aid but is inconsistent when the opponent goes wide/small.
100% confident that Jrue & Jaylen can turn it on when needed until then there will be turbulence, so buckle up.
Current version of KP isn't even awesome, unfortunately. Hopefully he works back into it.
And yeah, wrt to conserving energy, the 2017-18 Warriors had a worse win % than the Celtics currently do, and didn't win their conference. I'm not saying the teams are equivalent! But teams definitely lose some regular season wins when they graduate from "prove it" mode.
I'm still bullish on these Celtics, but I have to admit starting to get just a little bit concerned.
After a 19-4 start, they're just 6-6 in their last 12 games, including losses to Orlando, Philly, Indiana, OKC, and Sacramento.
They'll probably be fine, but they're healthy and rested and still losing these games.
After a 19-4 start, they're just 6-6 in their last 12 games, including losses to Orlando, Philly, Indiana, OKC, and Sacramento.
They'll probably be fine, but they're healthy and rested and still losing these games.
It’s almost like this team didn’t answer the bell in 7 of the 8 previous halves on their most recent road trip except the one half when their tank was empty.
Can’t say I’m not worried, I mean worried in the sense that they look more off than on and as of today a second round exit wouldn’t shock me.
Also, I love Tatum, but his body language is not good. Don’t spend the whole game frustrated. Figure out how to be more in control of the action and then let the chips fall as they will.
Also, I love Tatum, but his body language is not good. Don’t spend the whole game frustrated. Figure out how to be more in control of the action and then let the chips fall as they will.
Hard to be good if you cannot get 4th quarter stops.
The Celtics are 8-7 in their last 15 games. In that span, Boston ranks 5th in offense and 4th in defense. But in 4th quarters during that span, Boston ranks 8th in offense and 26th in defense
View: https://twitter.com/ctabatabaie/status/1877920242166308873?s=46&t=LP8gEhEZKXGKYp3VJskNKA
The Celtics are 8-7 in their last 15 games. In that span, Boston ranks 5th in offense and 4th in defense. But in 4th quarters during that span, Boston ranks 8th in offense and 26th in defense
View: https://twitter.com/ctabatabaie/status/1877920242166308873?s=46&t=LP8gEhEZKXGKYp3VJskNKA