Brissett and LW4 makes a ton of sense. I think they will try to get off Springer. He's completely buried, and Joe clearly has 0 intention of playing him.
General Celtics thread: 24-25 edition
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Springer + 2nd for LaRavia is one of the few trades that would make Jaden's contract useful
Why would Memphis do this? If they’re going to be dumping players, won’t they want to get under the tax line instead of adding another million dollars with Springer?
They have a bunch of players at LaRavia's position:
JJJ, Clarke, Aldama, with GG coming back around the New Year
Edey/Huff have played a lot of 5
Ja/Smart seem to be in/out with health
Tomek with a minute worth of great Cs ball movement. Very thankful for this!
View: https://twitter.com/Timi_093/status/1862132414878761054
View: https://twitter.com/Timi_093/status/1862132414878761054
Yeah, Jaden is completely useless. His basketball IQ might be negative and he can’t hit the broad side of a barn.
If they can staple a 2nd to him and get something useful, that would be a hell of a move by Brad.
Close your eyes for 5 seconds and imagine yourself a diehard Grizzlies fan. Now you log on to the Tomahawk Dunks with Stromile Swift message board and begin writing…..”We’re hearing that Jaden Springer may be available. We could offer our 23-year old rotation guy playing 24 mpg who has been closing out some games for us. Maybe the Celtics will be enticed by his cheap team option for next year and throw in a low-2nd rounder as icing on the cake. What do you think guys?”
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This is interesting. Cs are 6th in points allowed per game, behind only the Magic, Thunder, Rockets, Heat, and Clippers.
Magic are also best in 3P attempts allowed, with opponents only taking 33 a game.
Cs are 3rd, Thunder 14th, Rockets 4th, Heat 26th, Clips 17th. Not a ton of correlation there.
But then you look at 2P attempts allowed:
Cs are 29th.
While Magic are 3rd, Thunder 1st, Rockets 6th, Heat 7th, Clips 4th. Pretty highly correlated, other than the Celtics.
Basically, Celtics seem to make up for it with FT allowed, where they are 4th, Heat are 1st, and the rest of the top defenses are all 13th or worse.
It's also sort of crazy, in the abstract, that the Cs actually allow more made FG (42) than they make (41.4). Obviously, it's because they take so many more threes, but it's a little weird to think about a dominant team, sitting at 15-3, that makes fewer shots than their opponent.
What's hard to know is whether that adjustment---allow 2s and deny threes---is in part a response to missing KP's rim protection or not.
It was pretty apparent in his first game back that he's a different level of interior threat, and that may impact how they defend. Or, it may be that's a secondary thing and schematically they are just doubling down on threes (and prventing) them at both ends. That is the 'math' approach that wouldn't surprise me, but I'm not yet ready to say it's a sure thing.
I do think they are wise to be planning for a playoffs where other teams try to execute some of what they did last year----3s/paint 'math', 5 out offense, etc.
It was pretty apparent in his first game back that he's a different level of interior threat, and that may impact how they defend. Or, it may be that's a secondary thing and schematically they are just doubling down on threes (and prventing) them at both ends. That is the 'math' approach that wouldn't surprise me, but I'm not yet ready to say it's a sure thing.
I do think they are wise to be planning for a playoffs where other teams try to execute some of what they did last year----3s/paint 'math', 5 out offense, etc.
I don’t think it’s quite as simple as having the centers on the perimeter vs in drop but rather using them as the defensive roamer, meaning that they defend the basket more often, which fits more with what I’ve seen from Queta. More detail on that % of matchup minutes figures here from the original source:
“It’s easy enough to identify who is most often being used as a Defensive Roaming Cage-Free Center. All we need to do is rank every Center by the percentage of their defensive Matchup Minutes (MM) spent on opposing Guards…The result is that Sengun is closer to the basket and contesting more shots than ever before.”
Sengun is second on the list after Queta in % matchup minutes vs guards. I’m going to guess Porzingis plays a similar role and ends up with a similarly high percentage of matchups against guards.
Ha ha. Stomile Swift's Bucket LoungeClose your eyes for 5 seconds and imagine yourself a diehard Grizzlies fan. Now you log on to the Tomahawk Dunks with Stromile Swift message board and begin writing…..”We’re hearing that Jaden Springer may be available. We could offer our 23-year old rotation guy playing 24 mpg who has been closing out some games for us. Maybe the Celtics will be enticed by his cheap team option for next year and throw in a low-2nd rounder as icing on the cake. What do you think guys?”
I guess I'd be doubly mad at my GM for turning down LaRavia's rookie scale option last month.
At least the Celtics were kind enough to give us a brand spanking new 2nd round pick + guard depth for a guy that will be 4th in the depth charts when GG gets back.
Then again, I'd want our GM to avoid Nice Guy Brad Stevens after he stuck us with Marcus Smart and turned that into 2 of our Firsts + Kristaps Porzingis.
txs for posting the article. it looks super interesting and i look forward to reading it.
Trying to wrap my head around it, I think the “matchup minutes” is a little misleading because it sounds like the center is playing man close to the targeted guard (i.e. switching on the perimeter). But the example video in the article shows that it’s really just assigning the center to whoever’s not being guarded by the rest of the team. In the Celtics case, guard the four best shooters, leave Al/Q/K to guard the paint, and the opposing team’s worst shooter is left mostly open. But the matchup stats would show them “guarding” him?
But I’m not sure that metric is really capturing one single defensive scheme. If you look at field goal attempts defended <6 ft from the rim, you get guys leading both total FGA and % at the top of that matchup minutes table like Sengun and Zubac, but you also get guys at the bottom like Valanciunas and Poetl.
…mostly posting because I’m not quite sure what the table actually means and hoping others will dig in.
I noted it pretty early in the season, but they were experimenting with Queta as something much different from a rover, and in a very different role from KP/Timelord.
Queta was being asked to take away all 3s from shifty guards like Steph, Trae Young, LaMelo, and the idea was that Horford or Tatum would provide help at the basket when Queta inevitably got beat on the perimeter. It actually worked pretty well, but definitely trades off rim protection, and accepts putting the team in rotation, just not in the way teams with those guards are used to having a team in rotation.
I'm curious if against teams with a non shooting big we'll see a double big with Queta playing man on the perimeter and KP as a rover.
There has been a ton of CJM Mad Scientist at work in the early season. Queta using his length on the perimeter on Steph was kind of fascinating for hoop nerds like us. It worked, if nothing else, it was a different look for slowing Curry down. And if Queta ran over Steph, watching Kerr's head explode would have been worth it alone. Some other CJM experiments, like Tillman at the 4, have been sub-optimal and he went away from that pretty quick.
Joe took advantage of the KP injury to try different things at the 5 and didn't make the mistake of leaning too heavily on Horford by playing him 30+ mpg. The NBA media is still stuck on Mazzulla Ball chuck as many 3s as possible instead of what JOE has been accomplishing with this roster.
Thank you for posting that article - its interesting stuff.
Not to derail the direction you are going - and I agree with your view that this style of defense is more roaming than anti-drop - but I found this chart interesting:
In short, the league is going to try to punish teams for playing these guys more than ever before (I know NYK fans love Josh Hart but this is where he can hurt that team). The problem is that some of these players are very good defenders and are needed for the full court pressure style of D that is en vogue this season. As the author notes, teams can try to sub in better offensive types for these players - and without looking at the tape maybe that's some of what we saw with Queta when he seems to get lost in rotation - but its a trade off.
Fleet footed bigs are the hot new style!
That gorgeous Holiday tip-in is at 9:17, FYI. Can't find any video of it anywhere but there. That's one of those "easy to underrate" plays that Jrue so often makes routine. Many players don't jump there, or screw up the timing, or don't have a soft enough touch catching the ball coming from so high up, etc etc. So easy to take it for granted.
Yeah, very fun. That PP explosion was something else, especially since it was necessary.
Hello, 2022-23 Celtics. It's been a while. I thought I'd seen the last of you, and if we are being honest, I didn't really need to see you again.
Yeah I remember that time when the team with the best record in the league would hit their last 7 shots from the field and were 10-10 to ice the game against us while we were missing our 2nd and 3rd best players, on the road. Happened basically every week.
It's ok to lose games sometimes, especially on the road when the other team has an offensive superstar go supernova while you're short-handed.
They collpased like a house of cards over the final 8 minutes. Could not stop Cleveland, could not score, and seemed to prioritize running time off the clock over offense. I understand why they were in this situation, but that doesn't make the old bad habits any less fun to watch.
It was more a case of Mitchell going crazy in the final eight minutes than the C's collapsing. Yes, they missed some shots, but if Mitchell isn't perfect from the floor (and the line) the Cavs don't win.
Sometimes great players take over games.
Man, can’t imagine what you’d manage to regularly post about, well, any of the other (lesser) teams in this league.
Tagline: Fatal(istic) Flaw
And maybe, just maybe, they'd have a better chance at defending him if White and Brown are out there. I posted it in the gamethread, but Drew Peterson played 25 minutes tonight and the Cavaliers needed Mitchell to go supernova to eek out a win. Frankly it's impressive they were even in this game late down two starters. How anyone could label this a collapse is mind-boggling. Great showing shorthanded tonight.
If Mitchell hits 2 of those 4 3s he made in the 4th, I would have been impressed. That he made all of them was incredible. This is his shot chart for the 4th. Pretty solid.
The problem is that they also scored 18 points in their last 8:08, but I agree with you that late-game execution wasn't really the problem.
The Cavs allowed Tatum to iso Garland over and over again and were happy to let him hunt twos while Mitchell hunted threes on the other end.
One of the biggest plays was the Tatum block that bounced out to a Sam Merrill 3. It was followed by six straight Cs misses, all of them basically good shots. Sometimes, they just don't fall.
Didn't the Cavs also close one out on the Celtics last season in similar fashion: big 4th Q comeback, led by unconscious 3 point shooting in the final frame?
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202403050CLE.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202403050CLE.html
Dating back to the beginning of last season, including playoffs, the Celtics are 64-2 when they shoot > 32% from 3 and their opponents shoot <39%. Those two losses were by a total of two points: 3/28/24 @ Atlanta,123-122, and 11/12/24 vs. Atlanta, 117-116.
In games where they shoot worse than 32% from 3 or their opponent shoots better than 39%, they're 32-23. Literally the only way to beat this team is random chance.
In games where they shoot worse than 32% from 3 or their opponent shoots better than 39%, they're 32-23. Literally the only way to beat this team is random chance.
I thought the game really turned in the 3rd when the Cs got in the bonus around the 8 minute mark, and then the referees decided to never call a foul again. Cleveland got turnovers and missed shots by just hacking the shit out of everyone, otherwise it would have been a 20 point-game quickly.
That was some brutally egregious refball, next level stuff.
I was encouraged that Peterson is very playable.
That was some brutally egregious refball, next level stuff.
I was encouraged that Peterson is very playable.
And the year before when Grant just needed to hit one free throw at the end of regulation
I was at both of those games.
The Celtics could have hit some shots they missed, Mitchell was unconscious, Boston didn't have its #2 and #3 player.
I actually thought Boston played better in this one in some ways than in the first meeting, when completely unconscious shooting masked some issues. I'm pretty confident that we'll handle the Cavs if/when the time comes. There are places to attack, and that attack can be further optimized.
One place to give some credit to Cleveland: Darius Garland has gotten better defensively. He holds up better than he used to, and made Tatum work in a lot of instances.
The C’s are 96-25 since opening night 2023, postseason included. They’ve played .800 ball for 10-11 months of games.
Absolutely remarkable and every now and then you lose one of these.
Absolutely remarkable and every now and then you lose one of these.
Isn’t this also kind of exactly the opposite of what Mazz has been preaching all year? That we need to keep shooting threes and guarding the perimeter? It’s almost like today he was like, “Ok, boys: try it your way and see how that works.”
Just finished watching and this is my take too. Can you imagine how Cleveland would feel if they DIDN'T come back and win this game? At home, with us playing down not one but two all-stars? For them to have any hope against us when things matter, they couldn't lose this one.
I'll say I didn't think Al had a great game tonight (although that offensive rebound, where he nearly got an ankle injury for his trouble, was a nice tommy point). Porzingis was just OK on offense. We can talk about our ball movement slowing down, not generating advantages, etc. But the big-picture stuff was pretty great. That third quarter, we really were clamps until the final minute. Absolute clinic there. It's a shame we couldn't seal the deal, but we do have the luxury of taking moral victories right now, and I think that was one.
It is notable that Mazzulla looked past Walsh, Scheierman, and Springer when he needed a wing to play real minutes. Could be partly a matchup thing, but it seems fair to assume that he thinks Peterson is ahead of them, or at least is not behind them.
I mean the Celtics were obviously under major duress (minus one All-Star and one borderline All-Star), but there was still a reversion to form.
I think you could point to Tatum reentering the game in the 4th as the point where the Celtics offense went to crap. The other Celtics stood aside to let him try to win it by himself, with somewhat predictable results.
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View: https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/1863465980250206448
It's December 2. 10 years ago today, the Celtics lost their 5th consecutive game to drop to 4-11 early in Brad's 2nd year. They haven’t lost five straight since. That streak now begins it’s 11th year. With the Bucks’ L5 last month, Dallas has the 2nd longest active streak.
Boston - 804
Dallas - 316
It's December 2. 10 years ago today, the Celtics lost their 5th consecutive game to drop to 4-11 early in Brad's 2nd year. They haven’t lost five straight since. That streak now begins it’s 11th year. With the Bucks’ L5 last month, Dallas has the 2nd longest active streak.
Boston - 804
Dallas - 316
Wing development is always a crapshoot, and if Drew's defense is improved, he could absolutely have jumped those guys, because he's a much better shooter and ballhandler than any of them.
Wrt 4th quarter offense: KP doesn't have his rhythm, and the refs were swallowing the whistles on obscene amounts of contact on him, so he didn't have an advantage in the post.
That left Tatum hunting Garland, which has always been a huge advantage for Boston. However, Darius is getting stronger, and Cleveland did a good job forcing Boston to take time getting into that matchup. It didn't look to me like Boston was running clock. Garland just made Tatum's life much, much harder than he ever has.
Boston needs some new answers against Cleveland, and also needs JB+DWhite. And even with that, they win if Mitchell doesn't make every tough pullup 3.
Would have been nice if Jrue showed up last night. I know that I've posted about him several times. I trust he'll be there when it matters in May. But ugh.
2-9, 0-3 from 3, 4 points, -11
2-9, 0-3 from 3, 4 points, -11