Gardner vs. Ellsbury

[jon abbey]

We used to have a lot of these ongoing head to head arguments/discussions in the Yankee section: Cano/Pedroia, CC/Lester, Melky/Coco Crisp, even Swisher/about to retire JD Drew, and in this thread there's a bit of Gardner/Ellsbury:

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/62452-brett-gardner-still-no-respect/
 
Now that they are teammates and both signed long deals in the offseason, and with Gardner's recent power surge (he is tied for 2nd in MLB in HRs since July 1 with 8), I was curious to broach it again. If you could choose one at equal salaries for 2015-2017, who would you take? 
 
Also with Gardner being a better defensive CF and a decidedly better hitter so far this year, I think that if their contracts were switched, maybe Gardner would be in CF and batting 3rd by now. Admittedly this power surge is recent and out of the blue, but also Ellsbury at leadoff could steal even more ahead of the Black Hole of Suck in the #2 spot, hopefully stay out of some DPs. Gardner is probably just as fast, but not nearly as good of a base stealer. 

 

[terrynever]

I would take Gardner over Jake, mostly because he keeps adding some new element to his game each year. When he first came up, hard throwers knocked the bat out of his hands. Now he turns on fast balls and can go deep. He's hot right now so my opinion may be a bit inflated but this is the kind of overachieving player the Yankees rarely develop. And the Yankees actually locked him up for a few years at good value. That's a real franchise outlier.

Another answer is it's nice to have them both. JA is right. Bat Ellsbury lead off and Gardner second. They can both hit lefties. Gardner would shield the catcher a bit while Ellsbury gets a running lead. He takes pitches. That combo is so much better than Gardner/Jeter. The time has come to drop Jeter down to where he can do less damage. Why is this not obvious to Cashman and Girardi? Or is it obvious and they just won't make the move?

 

[jon abbey]

Ellsbury's massive 2011 (31 HRs) is the only time he has hit double figures in HRs in any season, he has a .744 OPS in 1420 PAs from 2012-2014. Same time period, Gardner's is .790 over 1108 PAs (he missed almost all of 2012). 

 

[Hoplite]

I haven't watched Gardner play much recently but this prompted me to look up some statistics. Does his 3.8 total UZR over the last three years match up with the eye test? Defense used to be (maybe still is?) one of his major strong suits.

 

[jon abbey]

2012 was a lost year for him, so that is basically 1 2/3 seasons of data, all of 2013 was in CF with subpar guys on both sides, 2014 has been mostly in LF. I would say that the eye test has him still at very good, probably not quite as superlative as he was a few years back. 

 

[glennhoffmania]

I would take Gardner over Jake, mostly because he keeps adding some new element to his game each year. When he first came up, hard throwers knocked the bat out of his hands. Now he turns on fast balls and can go deep. He's hot right now so my opinion may be a bit inflated but this is the kind of overachieving player the Yankees rarely develop. And the Yankees actually locked him up for a few years at good value. That's a real franchise outlier.

 

 
I agree.  I commented on this when Ellsbury was signed.  Why not keep Gardner in CF and get an actual corner OF to play left?  Gardner is at least comparable, if not better, than Ellsbury.  If I'm Gardner I'm looking at him and thinking, this guy is why I can't play CF and he got three times as much money as me?

 

[glennhoffmania]

According to Heyman, Gardner cleared waivers.  Am I the only one surprised by this?  There isn't a team that would take him and his 4/52 contract for nothing?

 

[glennhoffmania]

I'm not suggesting that NY would let him go for nothing.  But I was just surprised that no one claimed him anyway.  Kemp cleared, which is no surprise, but Hanley didn't.  There's little doubt that LA would pull Hanley back, but like with Gardner there's only upside to claiming him, right?

 

[Reverend]

And costless.

 

[LondonSox]

Reward of getting him > zero
Cost of not getting him if Yankees pull him back = zero
 
So unless you think Garnder has negative or zero value from his contract don't you claim him?
It's a free lottery ticket.
 
Of course if the entire league thinks he's not worth his contract then I guess it makes sense and I'm wrong, but that seems odd.
 
I also get that a lot of teams don't ahve the spare payroll to add him, so even if you think there's value in the contract it might not be worth it.
 
Still surprised though.

 

[Plympton91]

Gardner's power display this season sure is interesting. Very interesting.

 

[terrynever]

Gardner's power display this season sure is interesting. Very interesting.

How many are Yankee Stadium cheapies? And right now he's on pace for a whopping 19 homers. He hasn't gained much weight since he first came up. But I understand. We are all cynics now, with good reason.

 

[Harry Hooper]

I assume no one claimed him because no one thinks the Yankees would actually trade him (let alone give him away)?

 
Don't teams have a limited number of claims that they can put in?

 

[jon abbey]

How many are Yankee Stadium cheapies? And right now he's on pace for a whopping 19 homers. He hasn't gained much weight since he first came up. But I understand. We are all cynics now, with good reason.

 
Actually it looks like there are two cheapies out of 15, nothing else close. The last five especially have been impressive, averaging around 413 feet:

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2014_2910&type=hitter