Game Goats, 9/15 vs Seattle
- Thread starter Eddie Jurak
- Start date
Just watched the highlights, pretty damn entertaining game. Got some good chunk plays out of the running game and the screen to Henry. Great games from Henry and Gibson.
But since it is the goat thread:
OL just can't pass protect. Pretty good going straight ahead though.
Brissett was running for his life, made some plays early but faded later.
Looked like a number of guys getting free in the secondary.
But since it is the goat thread:
OL just can't pass protect. Pretty good going straight ahead though.
Brissett was running for his life, made some plays early but faded later.
Looked like a number of guys getting free in the secondary.
How much of it is poor play design vs. not getting the ball out quickly vs. just bad OL play?
It helped keep Brissett upright. By the end, he looked pretty beat up though.
These are the kinds of games we should expect most of the year. The Pats can eek out 20 ppg, and hold most teams to below-average output. Anything beyond that is just luck.
Goats:
- Blown coverage on the first SEA TD. Hard to tell who's to blame there, but passing off a receiver to a non-existent safety... yikes.
- OL in pass protection. This isn't going to get better without better personnel. It really is that simple. Even Onwenu turnstiled at inopportune times.
- Kick prot, obviously. A 48 yarder isn't a gimme, but a miss might be expected. A block isn't.
The three key negative plays in the game to me were:
1) The miscommunication on the Metcalf long TD, that is the kind of killer mistake that just can't happen
2) Poor blocking on the Slye FG that was blocked
3) Wilson's DPI on third down in the end zone, which basically handed Seattle a TD when the receiver was never catching the ball anyway.
Those are the three things I look at when determining goats for the game. The biggest issue though, is the fact that the O-Line can't pass protect at all. Not sure what Brissett is really supposed to do on a lot of plays when he has no time to set his feet in the pocket. The complete lack of production from the WR group says it all, this team can't can't anything going downfield because 2-3 seconds seems about the max amount of time the line can hold a pocket for.
1) The miscommunication on the Metcalf long TD, that is the kind of killer mistake that just can't happen
2) Poor blocking on the Slye FG that was blocked
3) Wilson's DPI on third down in the end zone, which basically handed Seattle a TD when the receiver was never catching the ball anyway.
Those are the three things I look at when determining goats for the game. The biggest issue though, is the fact that the O-Line can't pass protect at all. Not sure what Brissett is really supposed to do on a lot of plays when he has no time to set his feet in the pocket. The complete lack of production from the WR group says it all, this team can't can't anything going downfield because 2-3 seconds seems about the max amount of time the line can hold a pocket for.
Yup. In a non-monsoon, Pats WRs combined for 3 catches and 19 yards.
All of them.
I get the OL sucks but that is just horrendous. Sauce is going to be so bored on Thursday.
Let Brissett take the hits against the Jets and Niners. Both games may be ugly. And then I think it’s Maye time.
Are the conditions ideal? Surely not. But he can move a little and clearly has more arm talent. Would rather live with the growing pains than watch Brissett much longer.
1) BB still earning these for what he did w/personnel.
2) ST for the blocked FG.
3) Coaching confusion in multiple instances.
2) ST for the blocked FG.
3) Coaching confusion in multiple instances.
Agree with this. He's taking a beating, and my early prediction for the next game is he is physically unable to finish that one.
5.1 YPC and punting multiple times on 4th and 1ish In the year 2024. Fix this or get a new coach.
Also, you have no time to throw, what the hell are you having Pop Douglas do? Get him some touches on short/intermediate routes/screens. With 2 min left in the game, Polk’s TD was THE ONLY WR CATCH until the final 2 drives, where they added a whopping 14 more yards. 19 yards total on the day for Patriots WR!!
Also, you have no time to throw, what the hell are you having Pop Douglas do? Get him some touches on short/intermediate routes/screens. With 2 min left in the game, Polk’s TD was THE ONLY WR CATCH until the final 2 drives, where they added a whopping 14 more yards. 19 yards total on the day for Patriots WR!!
We all knew the offense was going to be shit but being ultra-conservative on top of it is just so disappointing from an entertainment standpoint.
This team isn’t going to win many games where they give up 23 points.
and yeah, they had a nice stretch of getting off the field to start the 2nd half but Smith went 33/44 for 327 and a TD. He made the plays, and the D gave up the plays, when it mattered.
The defense wasn’t outright bad but for a team built to win with defense and running the ball, the D needs to be better. If their D continues to be average (which 23 points and 370 yards would make them), they’re heading for a 11+ loss season
and yeah, they had a nice stretch of getting off the field to start the 2nd half but Smith went 33/44 for 327 and a TD. He made the plays, and the D gave up the plays, when it mattered.
The defense wasn’t outright bad but for a team built to win with defense and running the ball, the D needs to be better. If their D continues to be average (which 23 points and 370 yards would make them), they’re heading for a 11+ loss season
I found it strange they didn’t do much to get Douglas involved. Seems like with a porous OL, some quick hitters and screens to get him the ball would have made sense.
Can we give a game ball to the Seattle defensive coaching staff?
After our first possession, the Pats scored on their next three drives, going a total of ~180 yards and controlling the clock for ~15 minutes on those drives
After that the Pats had seven drives and scored on only one of them.
It was hard for me to tell on the TV feed, but I was wondering if Seattle switched up how they were defending our TEs. Henry had 8 receptions for 107 yards, but the only one that came after the middle of the second quarter was on that crazy broken play where he had to dive for the ball and then got up and run for the first down. It looked to me like Mayo countered whatever Seattle was doing by bringing in Gibson and mixing things up with Gibson's speed.
Even with our anemic passing game, we got more 1st downs than Seattle and have an >6 minute advantage on time of possession.
One or two plays break our way (e.g. that ridiculous pass interference in the end zone) and we'd be talking about what great in-game adjustments Mayo made. Ah, well
After our first possession, the Pats scored on their next three drives, going a total of ~180 yards and controlling the clock for ~15 minutes on those drives
After that the Pats had seven drives and scored on only one of them.
It was hard for me to tell on the TV feed, but I was wondering if Seattle switched up how they were defending our TEs. Henry had 8 receptions for 107 yards, but the only one that came after the middle of the second quarter was on that crazy broken play where he had to dive for the ball and then got up and run for the first down. It looked to me like Mayo countered whatever Seattle was doing by bringing in Gibson and mixing things up with Gibson's speed.
Even with our anemic passing game, we got more 1st downs than Seattle and have an >6 minute advantage on time of possession.
One or two plays break our way (e.g. that ridiculous pass interference in the end zone) and we'd be talking about what great in-game adjustments Mayo made. Ah, well
Was there ever any explanation given for that endzone PI? The ball seemed clearly uncatchable no matter the contact.
A few things about Douglas: they were leaning into heavy all day with a lot of running. Douglas doesn’t fit into that. Douglas is a slot only but you really need the slot to be a good blocker in this offense given how run heavy it is. I don’t know how much 11 they were in today but it didn’t feel like a lot. Last minor note is Douglas is more effective beating man than zone per reception perception and the Seahawks should have been zone heavy today (I’ll know more of that later).
I think I saw Douglas had the 2nd most routes behind Henry, live sure seemed like he just was either never close to open or Brissett was flushed out away from him and wasn't going to throw back.
When he went down and held his knee I hoped they would not put in Maye since Brissett was running for his life out there.
I think you're the only one to mention the DPI on Wilson. That play was really bad and costly. Like you say, the Seattle WR wasn't coming down with that ball.
Can we discuss the end of the first half? I'm not sure I am in agreement that the Pats botched it (on offense; not talking about ST and D here), but I am open to changing my mind.
To reset:
- ball on the Pats 8
- 1:28 to play
- both teams had all timeouts
- the Pats ran for 2 yards on 1st down; Seattle did not call timeout
- the Pats threw incomplete on 2nd down (0:54 left) and 3rd down (0:47 left)
So for those arguing that the Pats botched it - what would you have done? Run on 2nd down? If the Pats ran on 2nd and 3rd down and Seattle stopped them and called their timeouts, they still would have gotten the ball back on their own 40 or better, with a timeout left, and 40 seconds. Plenty of time to pick up the yardage needed to get into FG range.
I am sympathetic to the argument that the Pats might have had a better chance to pick up the first down by running instead of throwing. But I think their mindset was that they needed a first down in order to kill the clock. That part was correct. Once they threw it on 2nd down, they had to throw it on 3rd down.
So, 2nd down was probably the problem play. Run it there, see what you pick up, see if Seattle is willing to call timeout. Otherwise, half is over.
To reset:
- ball on the Pats 8
- 1:28 to play
- both teams had all timeouts
- the Pats ran for 2 yards on 1st down; Seattle did not call timeout
- the Pats threw incomplete on 2nd down (0:54 left) and 3rd down (0:47 left)
So for those arguing that the Pats botched it - what would you have done? Run on 2nd down? If the Pats ran on 2nd and 3rd down and Seattle stopped them and called their timeouts, they still would have gotten the ball back on their own 40 or better, with a timeout left, and 40 seconds. Plenty of time to pick up the yardage needed to get into FG range.
I am sympathetic to the argument that the Pats might have had a better chance to pick up the first down by running instead of throwing. But I think their mindset was that they needed a first down in order to kill the clock. That part was correct. Once they threw it on 2nd down, they had to throw it on 3rd down.
So, 2nd down was probably the problem play. Run it there, see what you pick up, see if Seattle is willing to call timeout. Otherwise, half is over.
One other thing I haven't seen discussed is the loss of Bentley - I wonder how much that hurt in terms of setting the D, communication, etc. Obviously the D still did a great job against the run, and most of the issues they had were in the secondary.
You've nailed it precisely. You've got to run the ball on second down to either force Seattle to call a time out, or to burn down some clock, both of which would adversely affect Seattle's chances to score at the end of the half should they get the ball back. The Pats choice of throwing twice did neither, and it cost them badly. That's a terribly amateurish approach to game strategy. Mayo has to get better at that.
I was wondering about that as well. The ball was 5 yards OOB and they still called PI.
The secondary has a good amount of experience. There should never be any plays where a guy like Metcalf just runs straight right by you. Not sure a LB makes any difference.
No idea what went on with the secondary yesterday but it clearly wasn’t a very good performance for a unit that needs to be a consistent strength.
What drove me nuts on that call was that they didn’t call pass interference in the end zone on the previous Patriots drive when Stevenson was attempting to catch a pass in the back corner. A little consistency is all I’m asking for.
And the more I think about it, the more I think that Seattle not calling timeout after the 1st down run for only 2 yards was a tell. Given the field position, the Pats bad offense, Seattle's good defense, and the amount of time / timeouts left, Seattle should have been really aggressive there trying to get the ball back. If the Pats ran on 2nd down and gained several yards, I really do wonder if Seattle would have called timeout. A run for 0, 1, or 2 yards and they are likely calling timeout. But If the Pats ran for 4 or 5 yards and got it to 3rd and short, Seattle might have just let the clock burn.
The only way to guarantee that Seattle would not get the ball back was to get a first down, so they might have kicked a field goal no matter what the Pats did. But the Pats made it easier for them with their offensive strategy, and then the ST made the situation worse.
I'm pretty sure Seattle takes a timeout if the Pats run the ball on 2nd down and don't get a first down. I think Seattle was essentially trying to save 1 timeout for the offensive possession.
I would've run it twice and at least forced Seattle into using the two timeouts. Even if the Pats punt, Seattle would only have 1 timeout which limits their play calls. If the whole thing plays out the same, the White sack would've made Seattle use their final timout. They may have still gotten into FG range. Even if they convert after the sack they would have to hurry, spike and then hit a 50+ yarder instead of running a few more plays to get it to 44 yards.
I would've run it twice and at least forced Seattle into using the two timeouts. Even if the Pats punt, Seattle would only have 1 timeout which limits their play calls. If the whole thing plays out the same, the White sack would've made Seattle use their final timout. They may have still gotten into FG range. Even if they convert after the sack they would have to hurry, spike and then hit a 50+ yarder instead of running a few more plays to get it to 44 yards.
My own two cents is that this is definitely effect and also partly cause
The Patriots lack of a real down-field threat (both the lack of an explosive WR1, and Brissett's lack of arm strength, and the OLs problems pass blocking) means that Seattle's defensive backfield and LBs can sit on all the short routes. At the same time, most of our WRs are really slot receivers who are best suited for short routes. Stacking the box both muddies up the thing our WRs are best at, even as it also bothers the run. Of course, it doesn't help that Seattle has one of the best defensive backfields in the league.
I hoping that by next year we'll have both Maye and at least one really explosive downfield threat out on the field. And then suddenly all sorts of other people on our roster will look 10-15% better at their jobs
This is one of these things where I'm not going to disagree with SJH and others about this drive. To neither get the first down nor burn clock is not what you want. And if you're Mayo you top priority should be to burn clock.
At the same time I'm not too worked up about it. In football you can get into this mental version of "the situation calls for X, so I'm going to do Y, but they're going to expect that, so I'll do X, except they're going to expect that I'm going to expect that, so..."
They tried something a little counter-intuitive and if it worked there would have been another little moment that contributed to the sense of "hey, this team is better than I thought". And it didn't work. It happens.
Agree on the Metcalf play
FWIW, this play happened in the first quarter on the first drive when Seattle went no-huddle and started rushing to Pats defense. It's worth noting this is the first time this season that a team has gone no huddle on us. Plus, Seattle's no huddle involved sending someone into motion to surface whether the Pats were in man or zone coverage. The whole thing was clearly intended to get the defensive confused for a second or two and cause a break down somewhere. Tip of the hat to Seattle's coaching staff, it worked. Gonzalez and (IIRR, Jones?) were playing different coverages from each other-- each clearly thought the other was going deep with Metcalf-- and that second of confusion was all it took.
It's worth adding that Seattle's no huddle was not nearly as successful on any of the drives that came afterward. The 'Hawks would come to the line, run guys in motion, and you'd hear all the Pats defenders yelling to each other what their coverage was every time Seattle moved.
They flubbed the first question on the quiz, and then came back stronger. Even great players mess up sometimes.
Also: it's September. Even the best teams have bad plays in September.
Yup, playcalling is like poker.
Your average poker player looks at a situation and thinks "I should raise here" or "I should check here." Really good poker players look at that situation and thinks "I should be raising here 70% of the time" and then throws a mental dice inside their head.
That makes after-the-fact analysis from your couch kind of unsatisfying but it is what it is.
Yeah.
My immediate thought after the game: this was a perfect summary of the team. The players played hard, they were committed to the run game, Stevenson looked good, Brissett protected the ball, the defense was mostly solid, but they had no passing game, no dynamic offensive plays, and couldn’t put together a scoring drive when they needed it. That’s a team that can win 5-8 games and nothing in between would surprise me.
I would slow our roll on the "defense is good" talk:
Lazar on twitter:
We have overrated this defense because last year the offense was so historically bad we were not able to calculate the D's true level of play. The defense was better than the offense yesterday but that doesn't mean they were good. No Barmore is a crusher up front.
Lazar on twitter:
No pressure up front, inexcusable breakdown in the secondary on the Metcalf TD, and of course allowing Seattle to freely drive to both tie and win the game.
We have overrated this defense because last year the offense was so historically bad we were not able to calculate the D's true level of play. The defense was better than the offense yesterday but that doesn't mean they were good. No Barmore is a crusher up front.
That's one stat. An important one, no doubt. But one stat.
I agree that we overrate the D somewhat, but I also think the D has largely played well enough to win games (both last season and this season so far).
The real problem is the O, as it has been for a while now.
The offense is by far the bigger problem, but last year blinded us to the issue the defense has as well. No pressure yesterday, no forced TOs, and Geno completed 33 passes. Just not enough impact which played a huge part in the loss. Perhaps not as big as the offense, but a huge part nonetheless.
It was a weird mix of too aggressive and too conservative at the same time. They've stopped Seattle on 3rd down at 1:43. The clock is running, but Seattle is of course not calling timeout. The Pats used their first TO there. That seems like conventional usage, but they could have let it run down to 1:03. They're only down 1 point, Seattle's punter is a weapon, and the absolute best you can hope for is a touchback.
If it's a touchback, Pats should still have had enough time at around :57 and three timeouts IF they can hit one good-sized play to get into FG range. If they can't (and it turns out they couldn't), then letting that 40 seconds go makes it virtually impossible for Seattle to tack on that last FG. So letting the clock run on Seattle's 4th down doesn't eliminate a FG opportunity for the Pats, but probably would have for Seattle, barring a turnover.
I think we just disagree on the "huge part" aspect.
Needless to say, I'd love to see us generate more pressure. Without Barmore and Judon I'm not surprised we're deficient there so far.
Turnovers... last year we were 4th best in the league at yards per play allowed, but we were in the bottom third for turnovers. I don't know how much of that is skill, and how much is good fortune.
I just keep coming back to the fact that a team with a better offense could have taken advantage of the Pats D shutting down Seattle for the first 27 minutes of the second half.
Good point about calling timeout after the 3rd down stop, I had forgotten about that. I get that it looks "wimpy" if they just let the clock run but maybe that was the more prudent play.
Reiss shows why the 2nd down play was a bad call:
View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1835685576911012235
Defense had a good game against the Bengals, albeit helped by turnovers. And a bad game against the Seahawks. Not ready to say they are bottom quarter of the league bad, as the pressure stats can be misleading over a small sample. But they may be at best mediocre on defense.
I am shocked that a defense that lost a top-ten defensive tackle and traded a proven pass rusher has a poor pash rush rate. Did you see the Rams' defense minus Aaron Donald yesterday? I am impressed by what Mayo, AVP, and Covington have done so far. They have the team playing hard and for the most part smart. This team lacks blue-chip talent. They have a serviceable and smart QB, but he isn't a play maker. I like Owenu but he is playing out of position and left tackle has a journeyman doing his best who was injured in the game and replaced with a third-round rookie. Geno Smith is a 10-15 QB in the league throwing to three guys, way better than what NE has at WR. I am glad they are competitive, I wish they won the game, it was winnable. And I think you don't want to start being a team that accepts losing or you risk becoming the fucking Cora Red Sox or the Jets. But I don't want to see Drake Maye until they get this Oline serviceable if they can. Did anyone see the pummeling Caleb Williams took last night? A few more weeks of that and that kid is going to be toast for a while.
The defense has faced 20 drives this season, allowing 1.65 points per drive. The defense has forced 9 punts (8 3-and-outs), 2 turnover on downs and 1 turnover.
Yesterday specifically it was ugly early but thought they settled in fine. The last 8 Seattle drives resulted in 4 punts, a turnover on downs and 3 field goal attempts. Allowing a TD on a busted coverage is never good but I'm willing to give that a pass. If mistakes like that keep happening as the year goes on, then there's serious issues.
Not Gonzalez, who looked like he didn't get the "we're not playing zone" message on the Metcalf TD.
This is simply not true - Dugger took accountability for this mistake. Gonzo has been elite all season (and last)
Duggar took responsibility for calling the max blitz. I can't imagine the result of that was supposed to be that *he* (and not Gonzalez) was supposed to cover Metcalf on the fly, while Gonzalez covers the RB lined up wide. It's the tweeter's opinion that it looked like Duggar jumping the route left Metcalfe open. It *looks* to me like Gonzalez let Metcalf go expecting help. I dont particularly care if I'm wrong about that play, but I dont think that tweet goes quite as far as suggested. (There were two wide guys and two DBs. Both wide guys were open). If, as suggested, Duggar was supposed to drop deep, Metcalf would have flown by him (because Duggar can't stay with him) while Gonzalez remains pasted to the guy lined up outside, which was a RB. That doesn't seem right to me.
Apparently the blocking scheme on Metcalf's long touchdown was from a Belichick play he came up with 20 years ago. Pretty interesting stuff:
View: https://twitter.com/_AndrewCallahan/status/1835711038853107728
View: https://twitter.com/_AndrewCallahan/status/1835711038853107728
There was talk yesterday after the game that the Pats may have been tipping their plays.
Also, the scheme has opened up some stuff, but the OL.... With any blocking at all, this is a walk-in TD. Henry chips, but Robinson doesn't get there in time to keep the rusher outside.
And this is why the All-22 is so valuable. Great play design that should have been an easy TD like you said. But JB was running for his life and we were lucky to get even anything out of it.
There are clearly plays out there to be made. No idea how to fix this tire fire OL though.