That’s exactly my point, though. You could just not have a “going in position,” in recognition that reality is not inversely related to the majority position on the board. You’re not a bad dude, but it’s fucking weird, and that’s what leads you to do things like make completely contradictory arguments on the same subject, depending on the target, or doing what you’re doing here: completely abandoning the reasoning that you were so convinced was correct, yet miraculously coming to exactly the same conclusion on new reasoning anyway.
You’re a really smart guy. You don’t need the intellectual shortcut of starting out with a position dictated by what others are saying. Just evaluate what happens on its own. I’m not trying to be an ass by pointing that out.
As for what happened, these guys have pretty amazing body control and I think he knew exactly what he was doing and hid it reasonably well, to the point of plausible deniability. I’ve thrown pretty much exactly that punch in other sports contexts. That doesn’t make me 100% convinced that’s what happened, but I think it’s more likely than not.