The evolution of the Sox roster this season raises some interesting questions about roster construction through the back half of this decade, and I thought it might be good to have a dedicated place to discuss it. I do not want this to be a place to discuss front office spending. Instead, let's assume that sometime over the next few years the front office is going to be operating at or near the tax limit and willing to consider major acquisitions.
If that's the case, then where does it make sense to focus?
So far this season there have been a few developments of significance:
On the pitching side:
Meanwhile, in the minor leagues the big three of Teel, Anthony and Mayer are all performing. Kristian Campbell has been tearing up AA, although in quite a small sample size. Dick Fitts is looking like a reasonable depth option, and we're likely to see what Winckowski has to offer sooner or later. Luis Perales appears to have taken a major step forward, although his elbow injury is also very concerning.
Putting all that together, it looks like the Red Sox have control of three solid starters (Houck, Crawford, Bello), three depth starters with upside (Criswell, Winckowski, Fitts), and two wild cards (Whitlock and Perales) who could become relevant over the next few years depending how their injuries shake out. There are also a lot of bullpen pieces with significant control.
On the position player side, two to three outfield spots are covered between Duran, Abreu, and Rafaela. Third base and catcher are covered as well, as is first base with an asterisk (assuming Casas' injury doesn't become a career altering thing). Backup catcher is likely good too as long as Teel pans out, either taking that role himself or more likely pushing Wong into it.
That leaves shortstop, second base, DH, and 1-2 outfield spots up in the air with some chance of first base falling as well. I'll go through this position by position:
SS: Between Story, Rafaela, and Hamilton this position is likely covered until Mayer gets his shot. If Mayer doesn't pan out, then it's possible that Rafaela or Hamilton can hold this down long term which could free up space in the OF.
2B: This position is likely the biggest question mark. Grissom and Valdez are going to get their chances here, and there is a chance that Hamilton could slide over as well. Beyond that, Kristian Campbell could make a run at the job if he sustains anything like his current performance.
OF: Easily covered by Duran, Rafaela, Abreu and short term free agents until Anthony gets his chance. If Anthony sticks, there's a real chance that the Sox don't even need another outfielder for a long time. That said, if Rafaela is called to shift his focus to IF duties, either Duran or Abreu collapses or Anthony doesn't pan out, there could be room for a free agent here.
DH: Yoshida is probably the biggest liability on the roster at the moment. He really needs to show something, as the team could really use this slot to pick up a big bat that can fill in at a corner infield position to rotate with Devers, Casas, and whomever else.
1B: Obviously covered by Casas, but if his injury become career altering then this would be an obvious place for an upgrade.
Summary:
Between players that the Red Sox have long term control over and likely top prospects emerging over the next few seasons, there really aren't a ton of places for the team to make big free agent moves. Over the next few years, I think the most logical places to aim for big trade or free agent acquisitions are:
SP: The rotation looks quite solid now between current talent and depth, but there is definitely room to add here. A big trade or free agency hit could make a very good rotation with good depth into an incredible rotation with great depth. The depth also means that the FO doesn't need to commit to a long contract here either. When I looked at the data on cost to performance ratios for pitchers and hitters a year or two ago, the best category on both sides of the ball were pillow contract guys. They outperformed their salary at a rate that was better than any other tier of free agent signing. Of course sometimes these guys blow up in your face, but the depth really protects against that. Similarly, renting an ace once or twice during the next window could be a very viable option as the team would not need to count on that pitcher for multiple seasons (again because of the depth).
Position Players: The best places for an acquisition would either be 2B or either a corner infield or outfield bat. 2B is likely the least locked down position on the roster going forward, although Kristian Campbell could change that. Between Grissom, Hamilton, Valdez and possibly Story I don't think this needs to be sorted this year. I think by the 2025-26 offseason we'll have a much better picture of whether Kristian Campbell is going to make a push for the job and/or whether Grissom is the guy. If neither is true, then a trade or FA could be in order. Meanwhile, a corner IF/OF/DH bat could be added at any time. I don't think the team needs an OF going into next season, but the roster could definitely accomodate one. Someone who could DH and sometimes spell Devers, Casas or both would also work well long term, especially as backup in case Casas's injury ends up being a chronic problem.
The big names in our areas of interest hitting FA this offseason are Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, and Alex Bregman. Soto is the obvious jewel here, but he's unfortunately left-handed and the Red Sox are looking to be really lefy heavy between Devers, Casas, Duran, Teel, Anthony, Abreu, and maybe Hamilton. Alonso and Bregman are both having down years so far, which is definitely concerning for any big name free agent in their 30's. Maybe you make a run at Soto and if you actually get him you worry about the handedness problem later (or solve it through trade). 2025-26 doesn't look much better, with the best two names being Kyle Tucker (also left handed) and Vlad Guerrero Jr.
One other interesting option who could become available in either 2024-25 or 25-26 is Ha-Seong Kim.
Obviously there is still a ton of uncertainty, especially over the course of two or three seasons a lot can happen. But from where we sit now, the Red Sox have surprisingly few obvious gaps in the roster and big ticket free agents that would be a good fit for the team's likely needs are few and far between (at least on the position player side).
How would you like to see the team proceed, in general terms? Do you think trying to sign a big bat is the way to go? Do you prefer focusing on a long term SP, or do you think the team is set up well to keep trying to catch lightning with short term SP while leaning on the depth? Is trade likely to be a better option?
If that's the case, then where does it make sense to focus?
So far this season there have been a few developments of significance:
On the pitching side:
- Tanner Houck has shown that he has the ability to be an ace (control through 2027)
- Garret Whitlock's injury may not completely eliminate the possibility of him starting in the future, but it's looking much less likely now (control through 2028)
- Brayan Bello has not taken a step forward, but at least looks serviceable as a back end starter (control through 2030)
- Kutter Crawford has cemented himself as a legitimate starter, likely at least middle rotation with upside (control through 2028)
- Cooper Criswell has also shown the potential to be a legitimate starter, and is at the very least a solid depth option (control through 2028)
- Justin Slaten looks like a very good bullpen piece (control through 2029)
- Brennan Bernardino, Cam Booser, Greg Weissert, and Zack Kelly have all shown very good bullpen potential and are all controlled through 2028-30ish, but most of them are in their late 20's to early 30's and therefore there's a bit more of a question mark there about sustained performance over time
- Jarren Duran has built upon his 2023 campaign in a very impressive manor. His 2023 was very good, but seemed inflated based on a likely unsustainable BABIP. In 2024 his underlying metrics have caught up with his performance, and his xWOBA tracks very well with his actual WOBA. He has also improved substantially on defense. He looks like a significant part of the future, assuming he doesn't follow the Carl Crawford career trajectory (control through 2028)
- Ceddanne Rafaela struggled a bit early on but has shown significant improvement as the season progressed. He's shown a defensive floor and speed that cements his role as a super utility guy at a bare minimum (control through 2032)
- David Hamilton is showing some serious potential that is reminiscent of Duran's 2023. His arm is questionable at SS, but perhaps he would play better at 2B? At the very least he seems like good depth/utility (control through 2030, I think?)
- Triston Casas appears to have taken some steps forward defensively while maintaining a good bat (albeit his underlying metrics are somewhat weaker this season), but his injury is definitely concerning and it remains to be seen whether it will have a long term impact (control through 2028)
- Wilyer Abreu has shown a solid bat AND glove, although his wOBA is significantly outpacing his xWOBA (control through 2029)
- Enmanuel Valdez has not impressed, although is xWOBA of .327 is solid and his defense has improved some (control through at least 2030 I think)
- Connor Wong has been great, albeit perhaps overperforming on offense (control through 2029)
- Masataka Yoshida needed to step up and return to the offensive performance of the first half of last year, and he has decidedly not done that (control through 2027)
- Vaughn Grissom hasn't been able to stay on the field and has been awful when he has (control through 2029)
Meanwhile, in the minor leagues the big three of Teel, Anthony and Mayer are all performing. Kristian Campbell has been tearing up AA, although in quite a small sample size. Dick Fitts is looking like a reasonable depth option, and we're likely to see what Winckowski has to offer sooner or later. Luis Perales appears to have taken a major step forward, although his elbow injury is also very concerning.
Putting all that together, it looks like the Red Sox have control of three solid starters (Houck, Crawford, Bello), three depth starters with upside (Criswell, Winckowski, Fitts), and two wild cards (Whitlock and Perales) who could become relevant over the next few years depending how their injuries shake out. There are also a lot of bullpen pieces with significant control.
On the position player side, two to three outfield spots are covered between Duran, Abreu, and Rafaela. Third base and catcher are covered as well, as is first base with an asterisk (assuming Casas' injury doesn't become a career altering thing). Backup catcher is likely good too as long as Teel pans out, either taking that role himself or more likely pushing Wong into it.
That leaves shortstop, second base, DH, and 1-2 outfield spots up in the air with some chance of first base falling as well. I'll go through this position by position:
SS: Between Story, Rafaela, and Hamilton this position is likely covered until Mayer gets his shot. If Mayer doesn't pan out, then it's possible that Rafaela or Hamilton can hold this down long term which could free up space in the OF.
2B: This position is likely the biggest question mark. Grissom and Valdez are going to get their chances here, and there is a chance that Hamilton could slide over as well. Beyond that, Kristian Campbell could make a run at the job if he sustains anything like his current performance.
OF: Easily covered by Duran, Rafaela, Abreu and short term free agents until Anthony gets his chance. If Anthony sticks, there's a real chance that the Sox don't even need another outfielder for a long time. That said, if Rafaela is called to shift his focus to IF duties, either Duran or Abreu collapses or Anthony doesn't pan out, there could be room for a free agent here.
DH: Yoshida is probably the biggest liability on the roster at the moment. He really needs to show something, as the team could really use this slot to pick up a big bat that can fill in at a corner infield position to rotate with Devers, Casas, and whomever else.
1B: Obviously covered by Casas, but if his injury become career altering then this would be an obvious place for an upgrade.
Summary:
Between players that the Red Sox have long term control over and likely top prospects emerging over the next few seasons, there really aren't a ton of places for the team to make big free agent moves. Over the next few years, I think the most logical places to aim for big trade or free agent acquisitions are:
SP: The rotation looks quite solid now between current talent and depth, but there is definitely room to add here. A big trade or free agency hit could make a very good rotation with good depth into an incredible rotation with great depth. The depth also means that the FO doesn't need to commit to a long contract here either. When I looked at the data on cost to performance ratios for pitchers and hitters a year or two ago, the best category on both sides of the ball were pillow contract guys. They outperformed their salary at a rate that was better than any other tier of free agent signing. Of course sometimes these guys blow up in your face, but the depth really protects against that. Similarly, renting an ace once or twice during the next window could be a very viable option as the team would not need to count on that pitcher for multiple seasons (again because of the depth).
Position Players: The best places for an acquisition would either be 2B or either a corner infield or outfield bat. 2B is likely the least locked down position on the roster going forward, although Kristian Campbell could change that. Between Grissom, Hamilton, Valdez and possibly Story I don't think this needs to be sorted this year. I think by the 2025-26 offseason we'll have a much better picture of whether Kristian Campbell is going to make a push for the job and/or whether Grissom is the guy. If neither is true, then a trade or FA could be in order. Meanwhile, a corner IF/OF/DH bat could be added at any time. I don't think the team needs an OF going into next season, but the roster could definitely accomodate one. Someone who could DH and sometimes spell Devers, Casas or both would also work well long term, especially as backup in case Casas's injury ends up being a chronic problem.
The big names in our areas of interest hitting FA this offseason are Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, and Alex Bregman. Soto is the obvious jewel here, but he's unfortunately left-handed and the Red Sox are looking to be really lefy heavy between Devers, Casas, Duran, Teel, Anthony, Abreu, and maybe Hamilton. Alonso and Bregman are both having down years so far, which is definitely concerning for any big name free agent in their 30's. Maybe you make a run at Soto and if you actually get him you worry about the handedness problem later (or solve it through trade). 2025-26 doesn't look much better, with the best two names being Kyle Tucker (also left handed) and Vlad Guerrero Jr.
One other interesting option who could become available in either 2024-25 or 25-26 is Ha-Seong Kim.
Obviously there is still a ton of uncertainty, especially over the course of two or three seasons a lot can happen. But from where we sit now, the Red Sox have surprisingly few obvious gaps in the roster and big ticket free agents that would be a good fit for the team's likely needs are few and far between (at least on the position player side).
How would you like to see the team proceed, in general terms? Do you think trying to sign a big bat is the way to go? Do you prefer focusing on a long term SP, or do you think the team is set up well to keep trying to catch lightning with short term SP while leaning on the depth? Is trade likely to be a better option?
