Hopefully this is old news, but the day of the offensive breakout vs. St. Louis I got curious and looked at the Red Sox situational hitting statistics for 2024. I noticed that the Red Sox were dead last in clutch by far, so I decided to take a deeper dive. Note that these stats do not include the last three games (two against TB and one against StL), but they are SEASON stats, not just during the slump.
I really don't know what to make of all this other than perhaps that luck is the culprit. I don't know which direction the luck is going in though, perhaps both?
The Sox are making weaker contact with bases empty overall but are smacking home runs at a great clip (league average HR/FB is 10.8%). They also strike out more and walk less with the bases empty.
With men on and in RISP the Sox are hitting the ball harder, getting the ball in the air more, walking more, and striking out less but they don't have the results to show for it. League average BABIP is .289, and the Red Sox batted ball profile with runners on and RISP is pretty close to league average (a touch worse).
So my best guess is that the Red Sox have been lucky with bases empty and unlucky-ish with Runners on and especially with RISP.
| Bases Empty | Runners On | Runners in Scoring Position | |
| wRC+ | 104 | 91 | 79 |
| wOBA | .323 | .305 | .289 |
| OPS | .727 | .698 | .666 |
| BABIP | .310 | .305 | .289 |
| K% | 26.4% | 24.5% | 24.4% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.1% |
| Hard/Med/Soft% | 19.1/53.5/27.5% | 29.5/52.5/18.3% | 27.5/53/19.5% |
| LD/GB/FB% | 17.4/44.6/37.9% | 19.6/41.8/38.6% | 19.3/44.3/36.4% |
| HR/FB% | 13.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% |
| Pull/Center/Oppo% | 40.4/33.1/26.5% | 39.1/35.1/25.8 | 40.1/33.8/26.1 |
I really don't know what to make of all this other than perhaps that luck is the culprit. I don't know which direction the luck is going in though, perhaps both?
The Sox are making weaker contact with bases empty overall but are smacking home runs at a great clip (league average HR/FB is 10.8%). They also strike out more and walk less with the bases empty.
With men on and in RISP the Sox are hitting the ball harder, getting the ball in the air more, walking more, and striking out less but they don't have the results to show for it. League average BABIP is .289, and the Red Sox batted ball profile with runners on and RISP is pretty close to league average (a touch worse).
So my best guess is that the Red Sox have been lucky with bases empty and unlucky-ish with Runners on and especially with RISP.