Free agent predictions

moondog80 · Nov 15, 2017

I think if Santana goes for that little the Sox would be all over him, even if they've already signed Martinez.

BaseballJones · Nov 15, 2017

Scary thought....

The Yankees could afford to swing a deal for Stanton, using probably nothing but prospects as chips. They could win the Ohtani sweepstakes. And they'd still likely be able to sign Harper after next season. Yeah, crazy crazy salaries for Harper and Stanton, but they could theoretically field a lineup featuring a 2-7 of:

RF Judge (50 hr)
CF Harper (40 hr)
C Sanchez (40 hr)
LF Stanton (60 hr)
SS Gregorius (25 hr)
DH Ohtani (30 hr)

I mean....it sounds crazy, but they have the resources to be able to do that. Their OF defense would be bad but they'd put up so many runs I don't think it would matter.

jon abbey · Nov 15, 2017

BaseballJones said:
Scary thought....

The Yankees could afford to swing a deal for Stanton, using probably nothing but prospects as chips. They could win the Ohtani sweepstakes. And they'd still likely be able to sign Harper after next season. Yeah, crazy crazy salaries for Harper and Stanton, but they could theoretically field a lineup featuring a 2-7 of:

RF Judge (50 hr)
CF Harper (40 hr)
C Sanchez (40 hr)
LF Stanton (60 hr)
SS Gregorius (25 hr)
DH Ohtani (30 hr)

I mean....it sounds crazy, but they have the resources to be able to do that. Their OF defense would be bad but they'd put up so many runs I don't think it would matter.

I talked about this some in the NY thread the other day, but I don't think they will go after Stanton, and no matter what I don't think they'd put Harper in CF, Hicks will cover that until Florial is ready in 2019 or 2020.

Bird is a 30 HR guy when healthy also, though.

BaseballJones · Nov 15, 2017

jon abbey said:
I talked about this some in the NY thread the other day, but I don't think they will go after Stanton, and no matter what I don't think they'd put Harper in CF, Hicks will cover that until Florial is ready in 2019 or 2020.

Bird is a 30 HR guy when healthy also, though.

Geez I totally forgot about Bird too. Thanks Jon, for ruining my day.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Nov 18, 2017

I'm predicting that Howie Kendrick will be the only signing by DD before New Years.
Then I think JDM will end up with the Sox. My guess is that Boras overplays his valuation of him and his contract drops to a reasonable 5-$135....the Sox sign him in late January then deal JBJ for Belt... and prospects or they eat some of his contract.

Betts
X
Martinez
Ramirez
Belt
Devers
Kendrick/Pedroia
10D
Vazquez

not neccesarily in this order

Snodgrass'Muff · Nov 18, 2017

BaseballJones said:
Scary thought....

The Yankees could afford to swing a deal for Stanton, using probably nothing but prospects as chips.

http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/majorleaguebaseball/al-east/new-york-yankees/giancarlo-stanton-yankees/

The Yankees being so quiet on the Stanton front has me even more convinced they're going to swoop in. Especially if the Sox get close to being the winners of the bidding (which I didn't think was remotely likely until recently). It would be such a Brian Cashman move to make.

jon abbey · Nov 18, 2017

It honestly makes no sense for them for a bunch of reasons, starting with he and Judge play the same position. I can run through the reasons why I think it's incredibly unlikely if you like.

Snodgrass'Muff · Nov 18, 2017

I really don't see any real hurdles. They can make the money work next year (meaning they don't have to go over the threshold), the cost in talent going to Miami isn't prohibitive if the the Red Sox and Giants have a chance, him playing right field presents exactly zero issues (otherwise the Red Sox wouldn't be interested) as you can move him to left or even DH.

The only thing that could get in the way is if Cashman thinks Harper at a higher AAV next winter is a dramatically better option, and the argument for that is... flimsy at best.

EvilEmpire · Nov 18, 2017

Snodgrass'Muff said:
I really don't see any real hurdles. They can make the money work next year (meaning they don't have to go over the threshold), the cost in talent going to Miami isn't prohibitive if the the Red Sox and Giants have a chance, him playing right field presents exactly zero issues (otherwise the Red Sox wouldn't be interested) as you can move him to left or even DH.

The only thing that could get in the way is if Cashman thinks Harper at a higher AAV next winter is a dramatically better option, and the argument for that is... flimsy at best.

I don't know how interested Cashman is in Stanton or Harper, but I hope he prioritizes Machado over both.

jon abbey · Nov 18, 2017

Snodgrass'Muff said:
I really don't see any real hurdles. They can make the money work next year (meaning they don't have to go over the threshold), the cost in talent going to Miami isn't prohibitive if the the Red Sox and Giants have a chance, him playing right field presents exactly zero issues (otherwise the Red Sox wouldn't be interested) as you can move him to left or even DH.

The only thing that could get in the way is if Cashman thinks Harper at a higher AAV next winter is a dramatically better option, and the argument for that is... flimsy at best.

I'm not saying there are hurdles, they could certainly easily outbid the Giants or Red Sox, but Stanton on that contract doesn't make much sense for NY. NY can't clog the DH spot with an everyday guy until the Ohtani situation is settled, and sure, they could move him or Judge to LF, but here is the team they are currently looking at for Opening Day 2019, along with their ages on 4/1/19:

Torres 2B (22)
Frazier LF (24)
Judge RF (26)
Bird 1B (26)
Sanchez C (26)
Gregorius SS (29)
Florial CF (21)
Andujar 3B (24)

Harper will be 26 then, Machado 26, Stanton 29. If they're going to add any of those guys, the first two seem to make a lot more sense than Stanton, even on bigger deals. Also another thing favoring Harper over Stanton for NY is that he is a LHB and most of NY's lineup now is righty, as is Stanton (and Machado).

jon abbey · Nov 18, 2017

I'm not even sure NY should take Stanton as a pure salary dump before you get into giving up young talent, but since that won't be an option, it doesn't really matter.

Snodgrass'Muff · Nov 19, 2017

If you don't think the Yankees should take Stanton as a pure salary dump, then you shouldn't be interested in Harper or Machado as a free agent. And do you really think that the three year difference is worth an extra $10M AAV (or more) that Harper is going to cost? I don't.

I do agree that Machado fits a need better, but not by that much. Gardner isn't a long term plan in left field, and offering Clint Frazier for Stanton basically takes the Red Sox and Giants out of the bidding. And while I like Frazier a lot, I think the chances that he comes anywhere near Stanton's production in the next 6 years (before he'd hit free agency) are extremely low. So that seems like a smart swap for a team that is entering a highly competitive window in what will be a fairly weak division soon.

On the other hand, Machado slots in at third nicely, but if the team keeps Didi around Torres can do that. And I have more faith in Torres approximating Machado (who opened up some big questions about his bat this season) than Frazier coming close to Stanton.

If Cashman isn't concerned about Machado's dip in 2017, though, the Yankees do have more depth in the outfield than in the infield, so I can see that being the preferred path. Frazier, Florial, Judge in the outfield with Machado, Didi, Torres and Bird could very well be a better team than Stanton, Florial, Judge in the outfield and Torres, Didi, Castro and Bird. I'd probably bet on the latter, though.

I mean, Judge, Stanton, Sanchez would be the most terrifying 3, 4, 5 in the league in recent memory.

jon abbey · Nov 19, 2017

Waiting a year lets NY see how Torres and Andujar and Frazier and Florial develop, not to mention whether the possible (fingers crossed) Ohtani addition will happen or not. Next offseason Cashman will have much more knowledge about what he already has and what he needs to add to that. A year ago at this time Judge wasn't even a sure starter, now he is a cornerstone. Cashman will know a lot more about what he's already got at this time next year.

jon abbey · Nov 19, 2017

Also this is NY's year to reset the luxury tax rate, and while they'd still probably be fine with Stanton's salary, not having that obviously gives them much more flexibility during the season. Once they reset it, Cashman will have more financial flexibility next offseason if he needs/wants.

Sad Sam Jones · Nov 19, 2017

I've been a big Carlos Santana fan since seeing him play a dozen or so games at AA Akron in 2009, so I really hope the Indians can re-sign him. However, if Carlos does leave, he should sign with the highest bidding warm weather team. Then maybe we could see what kind of season he's capable of if he finally started hitting before the middle of June... or maybe he just needs 200 at-bats to get his timing down with his leg kick. It's like clockwork though: He gets his walks early in the season, but doesn't hit, so when the weather warms up he gets more aggressive and hits some home runs, and then his confidence is back and his whole performance improves.

Before June: .227/.353/.400
June: .240/.352/.432
After June: .265/.370/.476

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Free agent predictions

grimshaw

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moondog80

heart is two sizes two small

BaseballJones

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jon abbey

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ivanvamp

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers

jon abbey

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Snodgrass'Muff

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EvilEmpire

paying for his sins

jon abbey

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jon abbey

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Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers

jon abbey

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jon abbey

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Sad Sam Jones

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