Free agent contract projections/wild guesses by pundits

The Gray Eagle

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The Athletic has the first contract projections of the offseason:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5893223/2024/11/04/mlb-top-free-agents-juan-soto-contract/
Now adding in the MLB Trade Rumors guesses:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

Some highlights that could be relevant to the Red Sox:
SP:
Burnes: ATH; 7 years, $217 million. TR: 7 years, $200 million.
Fried: ATH: 5 years, $140 million. TR: 6 years, $156 million.
Blake Snell: ATH: 4 years, $110 million. TR: 5 years, $150 million.
Flaherty: ATH: 4 years, $92 million. TR: 5 years, $115 million.
Kikuchi: ATH: 3 years, $63 million. TR: 3 years, $60 million.
Eovaldi: ATH: 2 years, $45 million. TR: 2 years, $44 million.
Beuhler? Beuhler?: ATH: 2 years, $32 million. TR: 1 year, $15 million.
Pivetta: ATH: 3 years, $48 million. TR: all expect him to take the QO, 1 year, $21 million.
Max Scherzer: ATH: 1 year, $12 million. TR: 1 year, $16 million.
Tomoyuki Sugano: ATH: 1 year, $11 million. TR: 1 year, $12 million.


Power bats:
Soto: ATH: 13 years, $611 million. TR: 13 years, $600 million.
Santander: ATH: 5 years, $105 million. TR: 4 years, $80 million.
T. Oscar Hernández: ATH: 3 years, $69 million. TR: 3 years, $60 million.
Bregman: ATH: 7 years, $189 million. TR: 7 years, $182 million.
Tyler O’Neill: ATH: 3 years, $45 million. TR: 3 years, $42 million.

Bullpen:
Tanner Scott: ATH: 4 years, $64 million. TR: 4 years, $56 million.
Jeff (Not Trevor) Hoffman: ATH: 3 years, $36 million. TR: 4 years, $44 million.
Nick Martinez: ATH: 3 years, $40 million. TR: All expect him to take the QO, 1 year, $21 million.
Blake Treinen: ATH: 1 year, $12 million.
AJ Minter: TR: 2 years, $16 million.

Because he gets proposed as a Red Sox target on here every week or so:
Hae-seong Kim, who is coming off shoulder surgery: ATH: 2 years, $36 million. TR: 1 year, $12 million.
What the Hae? Looks like Kim's former teammate is coming over to confuse the hell out of everyone: middle infielder Hyeseong Kim: TR: 3 years, $24 million.

LOL:
Alex Verdugo: ATH: 1 year, $8 million.

EDIT: added in the MLB Trade Rumors guesses. Most of them look very similar to the Athletic ones. Poll herding???
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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The Athletic has the first contract projections of the offseason:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5893223/2024/11/04/mlb-top-free-agents-juan-soto-contract/

Some highlights that could be relevant to the Red Sox:
SP:
Burnes: 7 years, $217 million
Fried: 5 years, $140 million
Blake Snell: 4 years, $110 million
Flaherty: 4 years, $92 million
Kikuchi: 3 years, $63 million
Eovaldi: 2 years, $45 million
Beuhler? Beuhler?: 2 years, $32 million
Pivetta: 3 years, $48 million
Max Scherzer: 1 year, $12 million
Tomoyuki Sugano: 1 year, $11 million


Power bats:
Soto: 13 years, $611 million
Santander: 5 years, $105 million
T. Oscar Hernández: 3 years, $69 million
Bregman: 7 years, $189 million
Tyler O’Neill: 3 years, $45 million

Bullpen:
Tanner Scott: 4 years, $64 million
Jeff (Not Trevor) Hoffman: 3 years, $36 million
Nick Martinez: 3 years, $40 million
Blake Treinen: 1 year, $12 million

Because he gets proposed as a Red Sox target on here every week or so:
Hae-seong Kim, who is coming off shoulder surgery: 2 years, $36 million

LOL:
Alex Verdugo: 1 year, $8 million
Walker Buehler at 2/32? Yes please. I know he wasn't exactly impressive this year coming off Tommy John, but at that price I'd take the chance that he can recapture something close to his 2019-2021 form.
 

simplicio

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I'd take Hoffman at 3/36 and Martinez at 3/40 in a heartbeat. Of the starters (though I think Martinez is a starter too), probably Fried on a 5 year deal?
 

nvalvo

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SP:
Max Fried: 5 years, $140 million
Blake Snell: 4 years, $110 million


Bullpen:
Tanner Scott: 4 years, $64 million
Nick Martinez: 3 years, $40 million
Uh, at those prices, I'll take Fried, Snell, Scott, and Martinez. That's ~$84m in AAV, which puts us about $5m over the first threshold.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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It's hard for me to appropriately express how much I would hate a Crochet trade built around Casas.


Walker Buehler at 2/32? Yes please. I know he wasn't exactly impressive this year coming off Tommy John, but at that price I'd take the chance that he can recapture something close to his 2019-2021 form.
This one jumped out at me too. I think he'll get more than that, but he's a name that really intrigues me.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Count me in as also intrigued by Buehler. I’d assume that if he can’t get a long term deal, he’d be most likely to want a pillow contract. I have a hard time seeing him on a two year deal unless that second year is a player option.
 

Fishy1

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No way we're sending off Abreu for Crochet. Mayer/Fitts and some lower level prospect? Yeah, maybe. But that's the most I'd give up for him.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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No way we're sending off Abreu for Crochet. Mayer/Fitts and some lower level prospect? Yeah, maybe. But that's the most I'd give up for him.
Who realistically would you send Abreu off for? I'm wondering just because I suspect that basically someone of Abreu's quality and value is what the White Sox will end up getting for Crotchet.
 

E5 Yaz

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So the assumption is Cole is just getting that extra year and he is never hitting the market?
Either that or they rework the contract and add a year or two atop the initial fifth year
 

jon abbey

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So the assumption is Cole is just getting that extra year and he is never hitting the market?
Probably but either way it has to be decided in the next few hours.
 

chawson

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I predict we will not sign Tanner Scott. I don't remember the last time the Red Sox spent at the top of the reliever market like that, especially one with that high of a walk rate.

The only relievers who played for the Red Sox with a higher walk rate than Tanner Scott over the last four seasons combined are Diekman and Sawamura.
 

Fishy1

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Is Abreu worth more than Mayer? I am skeptical.
Abreu is a rookie who just won a gold glove and put up a OPS just shy of .800. He's a well-above average hitter, if a platoon guy. If this is his floor, then the sky is the limit.

Mayer is a unproven guy, if highly touted, who also can't hit lefties, but hasn't played 100 games in his career yet and has dealt with chronic injuries.

IMO the guy who has actually you know played in the major leagues and succeeded is going to have more value.
 

chawson

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Abreu is a rookie who just won a gold glove and put up a OPS just shy of .800. He's a well-above average hitter, if a platoon guy. If this is his floor, then the sky is the limit.

Mayer is a unproven guy, if highly touted, who also can't hit lefties, but hasn't played 100 games in his career yet and has dealt with chronic injuries.

IMO the guy who has actually you know played in the major leagues and succeeded is going to have more value.
Abreu's great but where are we gonna put this guy?

91163
 

Fishy1

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Abreu's great but where are we gonna put this guy?

View attachment 91163
I think putting him in left field is the obvious answer! There's really no one blocking him there, except for Tyler O'Neill and Yoshida, if we bring them back. Ceddanne seems to me to be likely headed for a supersub role.
 

chawson

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I think putting him in left field is the obvious answer! There's really no one blocking him there, except for Tyler O'Neill and Yoshida, if we bring them back. Ceddanne seems to me to be likely headed for a supersub role.
Totally possible, but he could be of better use defensively. Most recent reports I've heard say he's above average and surprisingly good in center field. Likely to move to a corner eventually, but not soon.

And then there's the rule of thumb that the Red Sox need two CFs, one for center and one for right.
 

Cassvt2023

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Totally possible, but he could be of better use defensively. Most recent reports I've heard say he's above average and surprisingly good in center field. Likely to move to a corner eventually, but not soon.

And then there's the rule of thumb that the Red Sox need two CFs, one for center and one for right.
We already know Abreu can play RF in Fenway pretty damn well. And we know that both Duran and Rafaela can play CF.
 

BigSoxFan

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Abreu is a rookie who just won a gold glove and put up a OPS just shy of .800. He's a well-above average hitter, if a platoon guy. If this is his floor, then the sky is the limit.

Mayer is a unproven guy, if highly touted, who also can't hit lefties, but hasn't played 100 games in his career yet and has dealt with chronic injuries.

IMO the guy who has actually you know played in the major leagues and succeeded is going to have more value.
Hard to say because Mayer isn’t even 22 yet and Abreu turns 26 in June. I think most rebuilding teams would rather have the top 15-20 prospect who might have a higher ceiling while a team that is ready to compete now might prefer Abreu.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I predict we will not sign Tanner Scott. I don't remember the last time the Red Sox spent at the top of the reliever market like that, especially one with that high of a walk rate.

The only relievers who played for the Red Sox with a higher walk rate than Tanner Scott over the last four seasons combined are Diekman and Sawamura.
It was a trade, but Craig Kimbrel? Was highly paid and walked a fair amount of batters too. Jansen and, going back awhile, Foulke were certainly paid well too. Agree that they probably won’t land him though. I don’t see them spending big on relievers.
 

beautokyo

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But you're going to get a power-hitting 1B from Japan to compensate!
Who? Saikou Desu? :p After the Whining that Masa has spit out recently.....I sort of feel that Japanese players won't be lining up to come to Boston. I could be wrong of course.....money talks
 

E5 Yaz

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Who? Saikou Desu? :p After the Whining that Masa has spit out recently.....I sort of feel that Japanese players won't be lining up to come to Boston. I could be wrong of course.....money talks
From the MassLive link

MCADAM: Sign Japanese first baseman Kazuma Okamoto
Okamoto would replace Casas at first and give the Red Sox a righty power bat to help balance out the lineup.
 

pdub

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Who? Saikou Desu? :p After the Whining that Masa has spit out recently.....I sort of feel that Japanese players won't be lining up to come to Boston. I could be wrong of course.....money talks
I missed this. What did Masa say?
 

chawson

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MLBTR's Top 50 prediction list
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

All four of their guessers say Pivetta takes the QO
Free agents listed by the # of MLBTR writers who think we’re going to sign them.

(Pivetta - 4)
Burnes - 2
Snell - 2
Scott - 2
Hoffman - 1
Holmes - 1

FWIW, these guys weren’t particularly good at this last year. Outside of Ohtani (they all said Dodgers), here’s how many destinations they guessed right among last winter’s free agents of the remaining 49.

Anthony - 2 (Imanaga, Flaherty)
Tim - 5 (Chapman, Imanaga, J.D. Martinez, Heyward, Tim Anderson)
Darragh - 2 (Urshela, Hendriks)
 

Seels

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What did Snell possibly do this year to convince people he's worth $27 a year? And two guys think he's likely to sign with the Sox? Yuck
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Tale of two halves of the season.


View attachment 91192
It’s interesting that one angle for Boras to play would be to ease possible suitors for Snell that his crappy first half was because he couldn’t get up to speed fast enough and if he signs before Catchers and Pitchers Report the team signing him will have a full season of his second half.
The irony!!!
 

jon abbey

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It’s interesting that one angle for Boras to play would be to ease possible suitors for Snell that his crappy first half was because he couldn’t get up to speed fast enough and if he signs before Catchers and Pitchers Report the team signing him will have a full season of his second half.
The irony!!!
Except he did the same thing in 2023, 5.40 ERA in his first 9 starts and then an absurd 1.20 in the final 23.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He complained about his finger when he got hurt. He wanted to go for a 2nd opinion and was rebuffed by the Boston staff.....plus.....he wants to play in the outfield. He's "not" happy just being a DH.
He *couldn't* play the outfield this year because of the shoulder he just had surgically repaired, so I don't know there's a lot of credence to him being upset about not playing much in the outfield this year. Maybe early on he was frustrated, but I don't recall him vocalizing it to the media. Same for the thumb thing. As I recall, it was a rather unusual injury and difficult to diagnose (I seem to remember Youk on a game broadcast discussing a similar injury he'd had). And he did go for a second (and maybe a third?) opinion whether the team objected or not, and it didn't seem to change the diagnosis at all. Unless you've got some citations for him complaining or expressing frustration to the media, it seems specious to suggest that he's talking ill of the franchise to other Japanese players.
 

beautokyo

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He *couldn't* play the outfield this year because of the shoulder he just had surgically repaired, so I don't know there's a lot of credence to him being upset about not playing much in the outfield this year. Maybe early on he was frustrated, but I don't recall him vocalizing it to the media. Same for the thumb thing. As I recall, it was a rather unusual injury and difficult to diagnose (I seem to remember Youk on a game broadcast discussing a similar injury he'd had). And he did go for a second (and maybe a third?) opinion whether the team objected or not, and it didn't seem to change the diagnosis at all. Unless you've got some citations for him complaining or expressing frustration to the media, it seems specious to suggest that he's talking ill of the franchise to other Japanese players.
He ummm, injured his thumb early in the season and that kept his outfield playing possibilities limited. Plus as I think we all, Management believes their are better options on the team which I also believe. I remember him saying that he wishes he could play in the outfield more.
https://nesn.com/2024/06/masataka-yoshida-makes-admission-about-role-change-with-red-sox-this-season/
I know that he's not making any statements to reporters but the Japanese sports bars I've been known to frequent after all the Ohtani talk and DeNA winning, names and topics fly around. I've heard through reliable sources here that Japanese players prefer not to be the only Japanese player on a team. Case by case of course as some personalities are more outgoing and want to see on their own. He's stated he wants to play the field more but I never said he's complaining to other Japanese players not to come to Boston. You do know that Japanese players ask other foreign players playing in Japan about organizations in the US. I knew that he was living in Dice K's house in the Boston area.
 

LeoCarrillo

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Except he did the same thing in 2023, 5.40 ERA in his first 9 starts and then an absurd 1.20 in the final 23.
It's super weird. But if you throw out last year's first half as a no-Spring Training and then groin-issue setback anomaly, it becomes a one-year(ish) red flag.

imo with a guy like Snell, who's on the Dice-K Tier of maddening nibblers who pitch backwards albeit with nastier stuff, his value is directly affected by the quality of his receiver. Patrick Bailey is probably the best in the game at pitch framing. And when Snell got right in 2024, boom. The year before, San Diego had a three-headed mediocrity of receivers. Gary Sanchez (middling), Luis Campusano (bad) and Austin Nola (worse).

Point being, you don't sign Snell if he's gonna pitch to abysmal framer Wong. But Teel's at least reputationally a good framer. So, pull some internal MiLB defensive data on Teel for due diligence and go for it.
 
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chawson

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One thing Blake Snell is terrific at is limiting long fly balls to left field. That's a good quality for a Red Sox pitcher.

Here's the # of BIP hit 310+ feet to left field (via Statcast):

Blake Snell: 25, or once every 58.4 PA (412 IP across 2022-24)

That fly ball distribution is a pretty good recipe for limiting damage in Fenway Park. When he gives up a loud fly ball, it's to a part of the ballpark where Fenway has the most room.

Not all aces are built this way. Here's how often a few other great pitchers have allowed deep fly balls to left (min. 310 ft.) over the same spread (2022-24).

Kevin Gausman: Once every 29.9 PA
Tanner Bibee: Once every 30.1 PA
Jesus Luzardo: Once every 30.8 PA

Kevin Gausman has 13.5 fWAR over the last three years in 540 IP. Blake Snell has 10.9 fWAR in 412 IP. Yet Gausman has allowed twice as many fly balls to the foot of the monster as Blake Snell has over the last three years. Could be a reason why the Sox didn't pursue him?

Snell's ability to limit deep fly balls to left field looks fairly similar to other pitchers the Red Sox have targeted or developed over the years.

Lucas Giolito: Once every 49.7 PA
Kenley Jansen: Once every 51.2 PA
Brayan Bello: Once every 54.6 PA
Cooper Criswell: Once every 58.8 PA
Tanner Houck: Once every 63.2 PA

A few others of note:

Jameson Taillon: Once every 32.2 PA
Seth Lugo: Once every 35.7 PA
Luis Castillo: Once every 38.1 PA
Reynaldo Lopez: Once every 38.4 PA
Jack Flaherty: Once every 39.6 PA
Shota Imanaga: Once every 40.8 PA
Logan Gilbert: Once every 41.8 PA
Sean Manaea: Once every 42.4 PA
Jordan Montgomery: Once every 44.2 PA
Garrett Crochet: Once every 49.6 PA
Corbin Burnes: Once every 53.8 PA
Zack Eflin: Once every 56.7 PA
Nick Martinez: Once every 56.9 PA
Blake Snell: Once every 58.4 PA
Max Fried: Once every 58.6 PA
Pablo Lopez: Once every 62.4 PA
Bryan Woo: Once every 64.8 PA

So, Blake Snell would seem to be a good Fenway fit. Too bad he doesn't want to play on the East Coast! Luckily, there's a few FAs with very similar profiles.

There's another name that's interesting, though not a free agent.

Graham Ashcraft: One deep fly ball to LF every 79.9 PA

Ashcraft has flopped several times in Cincinnati, despite having very good stuff metrics. According to Statcast's expected home runs by park, he'd have given up 53 home runs if he played every game in his home park in Cincinnati, but only 28 home runs if every game were in Fenway.
 
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pdub

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I can't see the ChiSox trading Crochet for Abreu and Crawford. They are such a crappy team that the only thing for them that makes sense is to rebuild. Both Abreu and Crawford are already 28 years old, so we would be giving them two players whose timelines do not fit with that team. On the other hand, Crochet is 25 years old and affordable for the time being. I would assume Chicago will instead ask for our prospects, and that call will probably start with Roman Anthony.

EDIT: My mistake, Abreu is 25 years old. Ok, this could make more sense in some ways.
 

simplicio

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I can't see the ChiSox trading Crochet for Abreu and Crawford. They are such a crappy team that the only thing for them that makes sense is to rebuild. Both Abreu and Crawford are already 28 years old, so we would be giving them two players whose timelines do not fit with that team. On the other hand, Crochet is 25 years old and affordable for the time being. I would assume Chicago will instead ask for our prospects, and that call will probably start with Roman Anthony.

EDIT: My mistake, Abreu is 25 years old. Ok, this could make more sense in some ways.
It's not about how old they are anyway, it's about trading 9 controlled years for 2.
 

grimshaw

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One thing Blake Snell is terrific at is limiting long fly balls to left field. That's a good quality for a Red Sox pitcher.

Here's the # of BIP hit 310+ feet to left field (via Statcast):

Blake Snell: 25, or once every 58.4 PA (412 IP across 2022-24)

That fly ball distribution is a pretty good recipe for limiting damage in Fenway Park. When he gives up a loud fly ball, it's to a part of the ballpark where Fenway has the most room.

Not all aces are built this way. Here's how often a few other great pitchers have allowed deep fly balls to left (min. 310 ft.) over the same spread (2022-24).

Kevin Gausman: Once every 29.9 PA
Tanner Bibee: Once every 30.1 PA
Jesus Luzardo: Once every 30.8 PA

Kevin Gausman has 13.5 fWAR over the last three years in 540 IP. Blake Snell has 10.9 fWAR in 412 IP. Yet Gausman has allowed twice as many fly balls to the foot of the monster as Blake Snell has over the last three years. Could be a reason why the Sox didn't pursue him?

Snell's ability to limit deep fly balls to left field looks fairly similar to other pitchers the Red Sox have targeted or developed over the years.

Lucas Giolito: Once every 49.7 PA
Kenley Jansen: Once every 51.2 PA
Brayan Bello: Once every 54.6 PA
Cooper Criswell: Once every 58.8 PA
Tanner Houck: Once every 63.2 PA

A few others of note:

Seth Lugo: Once every 35.7 PA
Luis Castillo: Once every 38.1 PA
Reynaldo Lopez: Once every 38.4 PA
Jack Flaherty: Once every 39.6 PA
Shota Imanaga: Once every 40.8 PA
Logan Gilbert: Once every 41.8 PA
Jordan Montgomery: Once every 44.2 PA
Garrett Crochet: Once every 49.6 PA
Zack Eflin: Once every 56.7 PA
Nick Martinez: Once every 56.9 PA
Blake Snell: Once every 58.4 PA
Max Fried: Once every 58.6 PA
Pablo Lopez: Once every 62.4 PA
Bryan Woo: Once every 64.8 PA

So, Blake Snell would seem to be a good Fenway fit. Too bad he doesn't want to play on the East Coast! Luckily, there's a few FAs with very similar profiles.

There's another name that's interesting, though not a free agent.

Graham Ashcraft: One deep fly ball to LF every 79.9 PA

Ashcraft has flopped several times in Cincinnati, despite having very good stuff metrics. According to Statcast's expected home runs by park, he'd have given up 53 home runs if he played every game in his home park in Cincinnati, but only 28 home runs if every game were in Fenway.
Awesome stuff! Eflin would also follow that trend, and they were in on at least Imanaga so I think you're on to something. And trades for relievers are the types of deals the Sox can make several of with that prospect depth.