Francisco and the Five Pricy Shortstops

Red(s)HawksFan

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That’s a laughably bad offer.
Why? AAV is comparable to other big contracts given recently to left-side infielders (Rendon $35M, Lindor $34M, Arenado $32.5M, Machado $30M). It takes him to age 31 where he can hit free agency again. Seems like a more than reasonable jumping off point, unless the Astros are supposed to offer nothing less than 10-12 years in the opening bid.
 

E5 Yaz

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Why? AAV is comparable to other big contracts given recently to left-side infielders (Rendon $35M, Lindor $34M, Arenado $32.5M, Machado $30M). It takes him to age 31 where he can hit free agency again. Seems like a more than reasonable jumping off point, unless the Astros are supposed to offer nothing less than 10-12 years in the opening bid.
Yeah, it's one thing to say that it isn't an offer that Correa will take. But it's not "laughably bad"
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

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He’s 26 years old. He led position players in WAR this year. He will get a contract far longer than 5 years and an AAV in the $40 million range, I’d suspect. Even if the AAV is in the same range, those guys all singed longer contracts. I don’t see an incentive for him to sing for “only” 5 years. This is an offer the Astros know he won’t take and it’s an obvious attempt to placate their fans by saying they tried to keep him.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He’s 26 years old. He led position players in WAR this year. He will get a contract far longer than 5 years and an AAV in the $40 million range, I’d suspect. Even if the AAV is in the same range, those guys all singed longer contracts. I don’t see an incentive for him to sing for “only” 5 years. This is an offer the Astros know he won’t take and it’s an obvious attempt to placate their fans by saying they tried to keep him.
Of course it's an offer the Astros know he won't take. That doesn't mean it's their only/final offer or that they have no desire to keep him. It's a negotiation. When he starts getting offers from elsewhere, they'll see where they stand and adjust accordingly.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, it's one thing to say that it isn't an offer that Correa will take. But it's not "laughably bad"
Disagree, Lindor signed for 10/341 this spring and (arguably) is worse than Correa. I wouldn't have said 'laughably bad' myself but it is certainly an offer which they know Correa has zero chance of accepting, especially since he recently (re-)hired Boras as his agent.
 

jon abbey

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Of course it's an offer the Astros know he won't take. That doesn't mean it's their only/final offer or that they have no desire to keep him. It's a negotiation. When he starts getting offers from elsewhere, they'll see where they stand and adjust accordingly.
This makes sense in the abstract but HOU has never operated this way. They have never offered a FA more than 5 years and I would say there is close to no chance they will get anywhere near the top bids on Correa. Which doesn't make them wrong, I would guess 60-70 percent of big money deals in the last 10-15 years end up hurting the team who signs them.
 

E5 Yaz

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Disagree, Lindor signed for 10/341 this spring and (arguably) is worse than Correa. I wouldn't have said 'laughably bad' myself but it is certainly an offer which they know Correa has zero chance of accepting, especially since he recently (re-)hired Boras as his agent.
So, you agreed with me completely. It's an offer Correa won't take, but you wouldn't use the term "laughably bad" to describe it.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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When you offer a guy half the total value that he’ll sign for, I think it qualifies as laughably bad. It’s similar to the Sox offering Lester $70m and him signing for $155m.
 

jon abbey

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So, you agreed with me completely. It's an offer Correa won't take, but you wouldn't use the term "laughably bad" to describe it.
Because I think it’s a dumb term but if you asked me ‘is that a laughably bad offer or not for Correa under the circumstances?’, I would have to say yes. It’s not a bargaining position even, it’s way way low.
 

E5 Yaz

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Because I think it’s a dumb term but if you asked me ‘is that a laughably bad offer or not for Correa under the circumstances?’, I would have to say yes. It’s not a bargaining position even, it’s way way low.
It's a way of saying "we offered him 'more' than Altuve," while also telling him they don't value him enough to make a preemptive strike. Yankees will double it, easily
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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It's a way of saying "we offered him 'more' than Altuve," while also telling him they don't value him enough to make a preemptive strike. Yankees will double it, easily
Altuve’s deal was an extension when he still had two years to go, so not really the same thing.
 

jon abbey

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My Astros fan friend's attemped explanation/defense of the Correa 'offer', FWIW:

"To reinforce the argument that they don’t believe in long-term contracts while not obviously low-balling his value, i.e., to lose gracefully though badly."

If that's the thought process, offer 5/175 at least, there is still zero chance he is taking that and you look a little less silly.

On the other hand, even with their cheating (discovered and undiscovered) HOU is one of the handful of front offices it's hard to criticize in recent years, they not only nailed most of the top picks from their tank, but they continue to fill in wherever needed, the depth seems to just keep coming. No Cole, no Verlander, no Springer, they just keep coming. Good luck replacing Correa (I have a sports crush on his throwing arm) but like I said back when NY had this situation with Cano, the team ends up fucked either way if there is not someone good waiting to step in, short-term if they let him go and longer-term if they overpay him to stay. Houston is probably right about long-term deals more often than not, people somehow forget that part in their rush for new pricy toys every winter.
 
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Heating up in the bullpen

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Disagree, Lindor signed for 10/341 this spring and (arguably) is worse than Correa. I wouldn't have said 'laughably bad' myself but it is certainly an offer which they know Correa has zero chance of accepting, especially since he recently (re-)hired Boras as his agent.
So because the (desperate, dysfunctional) Mets signed a guy to a team-killing contract that sets the market?
Good for the Astro’s for not playing along. Sure, he may go elsewhere. C’est la vie. I appreciate them holding the line.
Paying one guy more than 1/7 of your annual salary budget (assuming you’ll go up to the luxury tax) when you have 25 other guys to pay is not the way to build a winning team. And to lock that in for 10 years? There’s no way that works out for the team.
And to do so when you don’t even know what the new CBA will look like? Fuggetaboutit.
I’d definitely let some other team eat that contract.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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So because the (desperate, dysfunctional) Mets signed a guy to a team-killing contract that sets the market?
Good for the Astro’s for not playing along. Sure, he may go elsewhere. C’est la vie. I appreciate them holding the line.
Paying one guy more than 1/7 of your annual salary budget (assuming you’ll go up to the luxury tax) when you have 25 other guys to pay is not the way to build a winning team. And to lock that in for 10 years? There’s no way that works out for the team.
And to do so when you don’t even know what the new CBA will look like? Fuggetaboutit.
I’d definitely let some other team eat that contract.
Good point about the CBA. Do we think that Correa or any of the top free agents are signing before there's a new CBA? Or more accurately, do we think any team is going to be signing a huge contract before the CBA? I would think they'd want to know where the luxury tax threshold/salary cap is going to fall before they over-commit to a potential cap-killer.
 

jon abbey

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Semien gets 7/175, Seager gets 10/325, Correa, Story and Baez still on the table.