Franchy Cordero recalled to the major league team
- Thread starter soxhop411
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I hope he does, but maybe there is some flotsam that can be jettisoned when that happens?
Sale for Taylor makes the most sense.
After that though, Paxton and Barnes are still on the 60 day. So the Sox might have to do some trades or cut some people whether they're buyers or sellers.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2022-roster.shtml
In terms of flat-out cutting players. . .hard to say where the combination of "no benefit this year/no future with the club" intersects. . .I mean, there's a lot of meh. . .but very little non-upside meh.
I’m totally fine with that if they have a replacement ready. DFA ≠ optioning him to AAA.
You could make a case for demoting Franchy, Duran, and Dalbec and cutting Bradley. But you need replacements. Casas is one; but he’s not on the 40-man. Stewart is playing well in Worcester, but adding a 28 year old to the roster seems like a tough sell, probably wouldn’t last long. They’ve got to clear some guys out.
Seems like some of the Groome, Downs, Seabold/Winckowski, Hernandez/Wong group could be cleared out in some deals, too.
Hopefully Chaim will make some trades to ensure at least a few of these moves happen.
Duran needs to stay up and take his licks. I get instant gratification, but in general rookies take awhile to develop. The dude has 227 at bats at the major league level. He needs to get at least 300 more before we pass judgement upon him. This is especially true since we have a couple openings in the outfield next year and having one of those openings being filled by a young cost controlled player is not a bad thing.
Career 227 PA, 11bb/70k. 30.8% K%.
This year, he's struck out in 14 of his last 31 PA. He's walked once. Prior to that, he had 6bb/16k in 84, which is a very respectable 19.0% K%. He's always going to struggle if he's striking out 30% of the time. He was trending the right way, so maybe he'll make some adjustments to get back there.
The first 84 PA: .325/.381/.520, .400 BAbip (24/60) 71.4% of the time he put the ball in play.
Last 31 PA: .067/.097/.067, .125 BAbip (2/16). 51.6% of the time he put the ball in play.
Good things happen when he puts the ball in play, that's usually the case with really fast players.
For his career, he has a .331 BAbip and a 30.8% K%. If you lowered his K% rate to 20.8% and he maintained the same BAbip, he'd be hitting .271/.308/.401 for his career instead of .234/.273/.364.
Given he's really fast, that .331 mark may be maintainable and an ISO in the .130-.140 range is perfectly acceptable nowadays. It's all about plate discipline and making contact. Drawing another walk every 100 PA wouldn't hurt either.
I agree to keep him up, at least to a point. I'm not sure what he has to learn at the AAA level and he did have a decent stretch of 84 PA. If his current trends continue, I'd give another 50 or so PA before sending him down.
While he probably does need another 300+ PA to make any real judgement, I don't think they should just hand him those 300 PA. He needs to earn them.
The problem with sending Duran or Cordero down is that there is nobody to replace them. Those guys off the roster means more at bats for JBJ and Dalbec. What are those likely to get us?
Unless Bloom makes a trade, we're basically stick with some combo of four unplayable players. How hard can it be to find a first baseman who isn't a black hole? I don't know - it must be harder than I thought because otherwise Bloom would have done it by now.
It's a shame that the Bosox are going to waste what increasingly look like Bogaerts' and Devers' last years with the franchise as a fringe contender in part because Bloom couldn't figure out how to find acceptable solutions for these four roster spots. What's the point of having cost controlled superstars if you're going to surround them with sub-replacement level teammates?
Unless Bloom makes a trade, we're basically stick with some combo of four unplayable players. How hard can it be to find a first baseman who isn't a black hole? I don't know - it must be harder than I thought because otherwise Bloom would have done it by now.
It's a shame that the Bosox are going to waste what increasingly look like Bogaerts' and Devers' last years with the franchise as a fringe contender in part because Bloom couldn't figure out how to find acceptable solutions for these four roster spots. What's the point of having cost controlled superstars if you're going to surround them with sub-replacement level teammates?
Technically, as highlighted by another poster in another thread (sorry I can’t locate for attribution!) this would make them jetsam.
They've already won a World Series with these cost-controlled superstars (two with Bogaerts), and very nearly got to another one last season. I think it's a stretch to say they've wasted their "last years". Winning a World Series is hard.
Or course winning a WS is hard. But giving 252, 216, and 261 plate appearances to 1b/of with ops+ of 74, 85, and 51 feels like an unforced error and a situation that can be fixed.
Uh-huh, and have they yet passed the point where they can't possibly remedy that and still make the post-season?
I mean, kinda. Are you going to trade the type of prospects needed to fix the right field and first base hole on a team that's falling fast? Aside from the ones that I just mentioned, there's a lot of holes on this team to fill (bullpen, maybe centerfield and another starter as well). Sure getting to the Postseason is half the battle, but realistically, the Sox don't have what it takes to keep up with the Yankees or the Astros (or for that matter the Jays or the Rays).
Bloom screwed up the building of this team before March. He may as well just lick his wounds, figure out what he did wrong and try again next offseason. This season is effectively done. Maybe we'll get a top five pick next year and draft another high school shortstop.
I think taking a chance on these kinds of players is one of the strategies of the Bloom era. It comes with the territory that they don’t always work out, but it’s much smarter than only acquiring players at their peak value.
Some of these guys have so-far been direct hits (Schreiber, Refsnyder, Renfroe, Strahm, Wacha, Whitlock). Some have had good underlying metrics that gave good reason to play them, but have not put it together (Cordero, Dalbec, Arroyo, Valdez, Richards as a reclamation project). Others showed nothing and were quickly cut loose (Peraza, Andriese). Some like Kiké have been both, putting up one terrific season and another one lost to injury. Others it was clear he had the right idea, and arguably could have held on longer (Pérez, Springs). No GM is going to bat 1.000 in this area. Just look at the Yankees, striking gold with Matt Carpenter while looking to offload the suddenly bewilderingly bad Joey Gallo.
You seem to be arguing in two different directions. Here, you’re upset that Bloom didn’t acquire obvious solutions to the 1B and RF positions before the problems surfaced. But in the Soto conversations, you seem adamantly against these kinds of acquisitions, saying it’s impossible to build a team through free agency.
Oh, that's okay then. We won in 2018, under a different GM, so we should just be satisfied with what we have enjoyed recently and not care about the performance and make up of this season's team.
JBJ has the lowest OPS+ of any major leaguer this year with 250 plate appearances. How is that acceptable?
Disagree somewhat. Much depends on the next week. And exactly what kind of trades you're talking about making.
If they start playing hot, I think there's value in exploring a Schwarber type free-agent-to-be (e.g., Josh Bell from Washington) that lengthens the lineup while solving the 1b problem. Or you do the same with a corner OF and move Franchy to 1B, or something. Maybe one of the suspect 40 man players goes for our hypothetical slugger. Maybe two if there's a mid-tier reliever bundled up with him. Maybe Franchy or Dalbec and a prospect - ready to cut bait there.
Whoever plays the name-game is usually wrong re: trades. I'm just trying to suggest we have several "multiple years of control" project-type players that might be shipped off. It's not like we've only got one golden future-mortgaging prospect that we can ship off for a temporary fix.
As to the quality of those trades. . .well, I don't think the team is structured to add two players and become a juggernaut. So maybe they're more modest, journeyman type deals, with a goal of getting into the post season as a pure lottery ticket team.
I would be mildly surprised if they're sellers though - absent a ten game losing streak and Devers breaking a finger or something.
Honestly, at this point I'd trade anything that the Sox aren't going to return next year/brings back the most value. Eovaldi, Martinez, as much as I hate to say it, Bogaerts, any bullpen piece that someone wants.
I think that if you get Josh Bell, how much difference is he really going to make? You need more than him. And I'm not sure if it's worth trading the number of minor leaguers to lose in the first round.
The only thing that gives me a little hesitancy not to tear it all down is the 40-man crunch that the Sox will face at the Rule 5 draft in the winter. Do you cash in those chips for help at the MLB level or risk losing them for nothing? There was a lot of talk last year around this time that the Rule 5 draft was going to find Boston losing a bunch of serviceable players. They were lucky that it was cancelled last year, they won't be so lucky this year. So what do you do with those guys?
I suppose if we're committed to a tear down we could trade not-quite-worth-protecting players for PTBNL type prospects/flyers in the lower leagues?
The recipe for dealing with the "needing to sell at the deadline" problem combined with "too many good players on the 40 man problem" is to sell the guys who aren't in our future plans for prospects.
Then take our surplus, combine them with incoming prospects and use them to trade for high upside young proven major leaguers who still have years of control but are getting expensive due to arbitration. Thus we get good young players who can contribute to our next good teams, keep our best prospects and still get some value for guys who are going to be gone anyway.
I have no idea who these young Verdugo like players are, but they are sure to be out there. Identifying which players to target and which ones to dump seems like the difference between a good GM and a great one. (Obviously)
Then take our surplus, combine them with incoming prospects and use them to trade for high upside young proven major leaguers who still have years of control but are getting expensive due to arbitration. Thus we get good young players who can contribute to our next good teams, keep our best prospects and still get some value for guys who are going to be gone anyway.
I have no idea who these young Verdugo like players are, but they are sure to be out there. Identifying which players to target and which ones to dump seems like the difference between a good GM and a great one. (Obviously)
Ridiculous, they're 2 games out of the playoffs. 2 weeks ago they were a big favorite to make the playoffs, then they had to play against 2 very good teams with the WooSox rotation. The season is no more done than it was last year then they went on the midseason slump and a bunch of people wanted everyone fired.
Maybe because it's based in logic and not over the top negativity?
If they're running out a rotation of Eovaldi, Pivetta, Wacha, Winckowski, Crawford with Hill and Paxton coming back at some point there's no logical reason why the season is over.
This is unbridled optimism.
Pivetta is, best case, going through a "tired arm" period; Medium case.. he's turned back into a third/fourth starter.
Wacha is on the IL.
Hill is on the wrong side of 40 and those guys don't tend to come back from an injury better than they were.
Paxton: Total unknown when or if he will contribute this year, if ever.
With all this, they might make the playoffs, but let's not pretend that they they're going to be anything but cannon fodder. These guys remind me of the
'88 and '90 versions of the Sox. Good enough to make the playoffs, bad enough to get swept in the first round.
They essentially had one starter in last year's playoffs and nearly made the world series, there's really no such thing as cannon fodder in the MLB playoffs.
Aside from your head-in-the-sand, everything-is-1000%-perfect, you’re-a-meanie-to-Chaim-Bloom, what logic are you using?
They’ve had one good month playing the dregs of the league. They’re 0-10-1 in series against the AL East.
The pitcher they’ve counted on to be their ace is probably out for the year. Hill is over 40, hurt and can’t make it past the fifth inning most starts. Pivetta is okay but seems to have a tired arm and is not throwing as well as he did prior to July. The rest of their startersare AAA.
The bullpen is among the league leaders in blown saves and are a nightly adventure.
They haven’t had a first baseman in two years (aside from six weeks last year). Their second baseman and left fielder runs hot and cold. Their center fielder can’t hit and their right fielder is probably the worst everyday player in the league and has been for two seasons.
Three out of the four best offensive players are free agents after this year and the fourth could walk after next season. The Red Sox are showing zero urgency in bringing any of them back.
But apparently we have a great minor league system, so that’s cool (no snark). I guess. I don’t give a shit, I care more about the Boston Red Sox than the Portland Sea Dogs.
Other than that, you’re right; this team is on the express train to World Series glory! But I’m sure the above is just over-the-top negativity.
We can start with that it's pretty hard to be over .500 and firmly in the playoff race with "one good month".
Also, not sure who exactly was counting on Sale to be the ace and not the guy who just finished 4th in the Cy Young voting and has been incredibly good in the playoffs, and over the last 3 years, but ok. Somehow you didn't even mention him in your breakdown of their pitching staff, or Wacha who has pitched great pretty much all year.
The bullpen with Whitlock added in, plus starters coming back to give them some more innings looks much better than it did not that long ago.
Story is on pace for a perfectly solid year and Dalbec has hit fine for 2+ months.
Also, not sure when exactly the Sox were supposed to "show urgency" to extend Vazquez, who was fucking horrible last year, or JD Martinez, who is going to be a 35 year old DH who seems to be declining right before our eyes over the last few months. Also not sure how that's relevant to this season.
But really, it's pretty clear that you're being typically hyperbolic. No one said they're likely to win a world series, but it's hilarious that anyone who paid attention to the team last year and saw this exact same thing happen, and then saw the same team nearly make the World Series, can declare that the season is once again over.
The Sox are firmly in the playoff race despite only one good month because of the expanded playoffs. The Orioles are in the race. The Guardians are, as are the ChiSox. 10 of the 15 teams in the AL are within 3.5 games of a playoff berth. I don’t know if it’s necessarily a huge accomplishment.
I think one of the oft-forgotten aspects of the Dodgers' success has been striking gold with unheralded pickups like Max Muncy and Chris Taylor, neither of whom particularly looked like they were going to turn into what they did. There's a lot of dice rolling that goes into making a team. Yeah, 1B has been a mess but if plan A was hope that Dalbec's end of regular season 2021 could be the beginning (not totally unreasonable) and plan B was Casas, its hard to put too many resources into plan C (although obviously others disagree). It's been a frustrating season overall, but personally I think I'm more disappointed in the results, not the process. Maybe I just feel like Chaim is suffering from low GM BABIP.
They are firmly in the playoff race despite only one good month because that month was 20-6, which is 125 win pace over a full season.
Against crappy teams they will not face should they reach the playoffs. The 0-10-1 stat against AL East teams stat is pretty telling.
Many people here act as if last season's playoff run is proof positive that all this mediocre team needs to do is reach that last playoff spot and then ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!!!! I suppose that's theoretically true, but do people here remember how the Astros humiliated our team in the last three games of the ALCS last year? The 2021 team played above its head most of the season, stumbled into the playoffs, had a hot streak at a fortunate time against the Yanks, Rays and Astros (for a couple of games), but the clock eventually chimed midnight and the season ended with a thud. This year's mediocre team likely to have a better hot streak?
Sure, and the other 67 games they’ve played at a 68 win pace. And in the 36 games against the AL East, they’ve played at a 51 win pace. Can slice and dice it lots of different ways, at the end of the day the largest sample and only meaningful one we have shows that they have a 48-45 record and are on the fringes of the race. Winning at an 84 win pace seems about right and matches the run differential.
Whether that equals a contender seems kind of subjective (the ‘12 Sox were also 53-51), and potentially dependent on how they play the next few weeks. But the ‘21 Sox were 63-41 at this point, and were no worse than 15 games above .500 the rest of the way.
So if one is looking at this team and trying to determine what to do (buy, sell, etc.) I think you have to evaluate based on the personnel they have now and expect to have the rest of the way, how they have played, competition, and what the implications are of any moves for the future. Just saying “made the alcs last year” doesn’t seem terribly relevant to his year.
Actually it is easy to have one good month and be over .500, the Sox are literally doing that right now. They have completely and totally shit the bed against the AL East.If they make the playoffs, the chances are very good that they’re going to play one of those teams.
How do you feel about their chances against one of those teams?
JFC, Dalbec hasn’t been “fine” for any stretch of this season. If you’re not going to live in reality, I’m not sure why we’re having this discussion. I’m sorry but you don’t understand baseball at all if you think Bobby Dalbec has been anything but awful this season. It’s okay to say it.
And Story should be more than “solid”, no? He’s Bloom’s bug fish and he’s just solid? Kike Herndez is a solid player. Verdugo is a solid player. Story is an overpay for a solid player.
And I agree with you, Story has been fine. But the Red Sox need him to better than fine or solid.
And what does last year have to do with this year?
I, too, am curious about the “Dalbec has been fine” line. He has a .553 OPS against RHP. A decent .787 against LHP, which is not terrible but exceedingly mediocre for a 1B. He had a terrible April and then has basically been a consistent .700 OPS guy since. Would love to know how that is “fine” production for a 1B.
"a good month" is an interesting way to describe a 20-6 month, but you have interesting standards I suppose
Dalbec has been an above average hitter for 2 months. Is that great? No. Would you hope for better? Of course. But a Dalbec that hits league average isn't really a huge problem.
Story is on pace for a roughly 4 WAR season, assuming he comes back on time after the all star break. He's been worth 15.3m for 81 games played, so no, not an overpay at 23-24m a year. If you consider Verdugo and Kike solid then story is way above solid.
I'm not trying to be snarky ... but what stats are you using to make this claim?
Dalbec is a righty platoon 1B who is completely useless against major league RHP. The above average hitter has occurred as the team has only started him against lefty starters, but hes a complete failure as an everyday 1B as he can only play the weak side of the platoon.
Story has been disappointing. A 30%+ K rate and a below average bat is not what you want to see from a big (but not elite level) contract even if the middle infield defense has been quite good.
103 wrc+ since May 15th
fwiw he's been worth .2 WAR in 155 PAs over that time, so over a full seasons worth of PAs that's a bit under a 1 WAR player, so not great, but for a placeholder guy making the minimum it's not terrible
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Dalbec has 12 rbi and a 700 ops (along with mediocre defense) in his two hot months. Coupled with Franchy’s ice cold July, it’s well below average production at the position.
Red Sox position players who have been worth more than 1 bWAR thus far:
Devers 4.1
Bogaerts 3.3
Story 2.1
JD 1.4
Vaz 1.1
The team is regularly starting 4-5 position players who have been below replacement level (LF, RF, 1B all year; CF and 2B lately with injuries). It’s pretty staggering, especially since they are getting such solid production at positions where it is usually hard to find it.
Red Sox position players who have been worth more than 1 bWAR thus far:
Devers 4.1
Bogaerts 3.3
Story 2.1
JD 1.4
Vaz 1.1
The team is regularly starting 4-5 position players who have been below replacement level (LF, RF, 1B all year; CF and 2B lately with injuries). It’s pretty staggering, especially since they are getting such solid production at positions where it is usually hard to find it.
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Possibly but it depends on what type of prospect will be needed to fix the problems and if it's a rental or not. Bleis, Bello, Casas, Yorke, Mayer, Rafaela? Not for rentals. Definitely not looking to empty the farm for anyone but I'd listen to deals that contain 1 or 2 of them. Murphy, Winckowski or Groome? Sure, even for rentals. Paulino or Lugo? Maybe for rentals.
I'm not sure what stat they used but from 5/20 to now he's slashing .236/.310/.417. League average is .242/.312/..395. So by OPS, he's above average... barely. His OPS+ has been creeping up slooooowly for awhile now too.
I'm not a buyer but he's a good power stretch away from being close to league average and even without that, if he continues his stretch of "above average" hitting, the Sox can live with him but meh.. Seems like it should be an easy and relatively cheap upgrade but I don't know the asking prices.
The Red Sox have the following records against AL East teams:
Baltimore: 3-5
New York: 4-6
Tampa: 2-8
Toronto: 3-6
They have the following records against current division leaders and Wild Card competition not in the AL East:
AL Central:
Minnesota: 2-2
AL West:
Houston: 2-1
Wild Card:
Seattle: 6-1
Cleveland: 3-0
Chicago: 2-4
The team's slashline in close and late situations: .212/.277/.352 (OPS .629), with 11 HR (T-6th in AL), 36 RBI (6th in AL), 32 BB (12th in AL), 102 K (6th in AL)
Getting back to Franchy, and 1B, the regular season avg. is .209 and the OPS is .604 for the position, both good for 15th in the AL, which is dead last. The 7 HR (13th) and 29 RBI (T-13th) don't make up for much. The Detroit Tigers are slightly better, at .211/.605 (6/23), with the next worst (13th in the AL) at .221/.618 (6/29). That would be Oakland. They also are dead last in avg and OPS output from right field, at .191 and .557, with 5 HR (14th) and 35 RBI (T-11th).
Draw your own conclusions from that data, but it tells me this is a middle of the pack team that may have already played its best stretch of baseball, especially since two of 9 positions are pretty much the worst in the league in terms of production. That's not even taking into account the leaky bullpen and the plug-and-pray starting rotation.
Others may disagree, but I don't think there's a lot of room for optimism in most of those numbers.
Baltimore: 3-5
New York: 4-6
Tampa: 2-8
Toronto: 3-6
They have the following records against current division leaders and Wild Card competition not in the AL East:
AL Central:
Minnesota: 2-2
AL West:
Houston: 2-1
Wild Card:
Seattle: 6-1
Cleveland: 3-0
Chicago: 2-4
The team's slashline in close and late situations: .212/.277/.352 (OPS .629), with 11 HR (T-6th in AL), 36 RBI (6th in AL), 32 BB (12th in AL), 102 K (6th in AL)
Getting back to Franchy, and 1B, the regular season avg. is .209 and the OPS is .604 for the position, both good for 15th in the AL, which is dead last. The 7 HR (13th) and 29 RBI (T-13th) don't make up for much. The Detroit Tigers are slightly better, at .211/.605 (6/23), with the next worst (13th in the AL) at .221/.618 (6/29). That would be Oakland. They also are dead last in avg and OPS output from right field, at .191 and .557, with 5 HR (14th) and 35 RBI (T-11th).
Draw your own conclusions from that data, but it tells me this is a middle of the pack team that may have already played its best stretch of baseball, especially since two of 9 positions are pretty much the worst in the league in terms of production. That's not even taking into account the leaky bullpen and the plug-and-pray starting rotation.
Others may disagree, but I don't think there's a lot of room for optimism in most of those numbers.
Numbers require context. Which means history. Which means a tale of 3 seasons:
1) The 2022 Sox started abysmally cold off a truncated-spring-training. Key Players, Management, or Organizational Culture - they've had one recent hot start (2021), and two recent cold ones (2019, 2022). The bats in particular were ice-cold, and Cora seemed determined to pull starters early and cycle through the bullpen until he found a pitcher having a shitty night.
2) When the bats somewhat normalized and their pitching was healthy/deployed in a non-gimicky way, they proved to be very effective against average-to-competitive teams. The outlier is Trevor Story's batshit-insane hot streak, coinciding with JD's somethings-kinda-off-about-that-guy hot streak, but that's allowed to happen.
3) Most recently, when the starting rotation was injured and the line-up shortened by a few cold bats, the Sox proved to be largely ineffective against a string of competitive teams.
So we see a pattern of uneven production grouped against uneven levels of competition - which makes things hard to evaluate.
I think it's fair to say this is not a juggernaut team that's just snakebit re: outcomes - but very very few teams are. Likewise, this is not a bottom feeder team that's in the WC scrum due to luck. Instead, they're like many other baseball teams - they're balanced on circumstance, tilting between competitive/not competetive.
They've proven that when healthy, they can credibly play anyone, even with a couple of black holes in the lineup. And therein likes the case for optimism. They have to get the pitching back to healthy effectiveness and the batters back to something of a baseline. The club would become even more viable if the black holes are upgraded to red-dwarfs - we don't need gas giants. Replacing the offensively terrible players with average bats lengthens the lineup and hedges against the natural hot/cold streaks of the key bats. (That's possibly doable with only internal adjustments/player improvement. But there's no guarantee that happens.)
So, when considering our chances to make the post season, and their success there, the main questions I'd ask are:
1) From a reasonable standings perspective, do the Sox actually have time to remain in, or rise to the top of the WC scrum?
Yes. 69 games are left. TBR, SEA, TOR, CLE, BOS are all within 3 games of each other for 3 WC spots.
2) Do the Sox face unbalanced competition (compared to other WC teams) that make their task easier or more difficult? (Or effectively "lengthen" or "shorten" that stretch of opportunity.)
Yes - more difficult.
This has been gone over in other threads, but here I'd note the Sox immediately have the following games:
3 TOR, 3 CLE, 3 MIL, 3@HOU (note: Trade Deadline), 4@KCR.
Then they notably finish with:
4@NYC, 4 BAL, 3@TOR, 4 TBR.
3) Do the Sox have time to make Adjustments/Call-ups/Trades?
Yes.
As far as Adjustments, they have a bunch of high-potential players on the roster. Who have not really developed (Dalbec/Cordero). Refsnyder was something of a desperation call-up and was more effective than their chosen players. (Part of that may be luck, but IMO the batting/coaching staff has needed a revamp for a few years.) In any event, this is a low-probability solution.
As far as Call-ups or players returning from injury. . .not much there which hasn't been tapped for bats. Maybe Casas, but that would be a roll of the dice given his injury stalled season. For pitching, Paxton would be a nice end-season piece in any role. An effective Taylor/Strahm combo would help stabilize the bullpen.
As far as trades, we can do that. The trade deadline is Aug. 2. That's for players who would be on the club post-season, but a 2021 Iglesias might be acquired for a late regular-season shore up (particularly with that final stretch in mind?)
The deadline is the second game of the Houston series. They have 12 calendar days and 11 games to assess before the window closes on acquiring a post-season player.
4) What's the optimal strategy?
Hard to say, but if you combine all of the above, I think the following picture emerges.
They can compete for a WC spot with a mild increase in effectiveness. But that needs to happen now, whatever the method. As Trade seems the most likely option, sooner is better than later.
Going 7-3 before the deadline would be great. Going 2-8 would be disastrous, bordering on season-forclosing.
I'd conclude they're best-off trading yesterday for an upgrade position player or two, mostly because they've painted themselves into a corner by hoping for young player improvement that has not happened. A key pitcher might be worth it as well, but they seem to have far more internal options there.
Story had 2.1 bWAR through 81 games. This includes a terrible month, a terrific month and a bunch of otherwise better than average play.
Even better,I think we can realistically discount his early troubles (new team, new baby, not in Denver) as an adjustment period when predicting how he'll do going forward.
Story was a very good big money value signing. A lot of places predicted he would get paid several million more per year, and his salary demands only came down when was the last one without a seat when the music stopped.
Say what you will about Bloome, the jury is still out, but the Story signing is exactly the kind you want your team to make.
Story has been a weird SLG-heavy kind of league average with the bat — he's also posted a BABIP .060 below his career number — and great on defense. I would expect a good second half with the bat as he gets to see more of the AL pitching staffs again and maybe gets a bit of positive regression on balls in play. He definitely needs to get the strikeouts under control, but a .200+ ISO is pretty promising.
As for the defense, I know there's some skepticism around advanced defensive statistics around these parts, so I'll only say that his are corroborated by the Red Sox' team defensive efficiency moving from 2021's last place showing of .659, a full .021 points below the next worst team, to a completely respectable .699, right in the middle of the pack.
Now this is still only a so-so defensive club. But moving from a bunch of randos to Trevor Story at 2B was a big piece of getting our team defense from terrible to acceptable. UZR isn't perfect, but it thinks Story has been 8 runs better — so about a win in this run environment — than our 2021 second base situation just in the first half.
Re: Story, the slow start makes sense given the reasons mentioned - but the recent performance is concerning too. He’s got 8 bb / 45 k in June - July; he’s been worse in those two months than he was in April. He’s also got really extreme home / road and lefty / righty splits. And a large % of his production is coming from defense. I think it is likely an adjustment year; seems like that often happens with players joining new teams.