Four first round picks for... Justise Winslow?? (Ainge's drafting record)

Cesar Crespo

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without looking at his whole history, is Ainge's best 2nd round pick E'Twaun Moore? Does he still count?
 

Cesar Crespo

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When was the last time the Celtics signed one of their 2nd round picks to a 2nd contract? Did Dino Radja get a 2nd deal? I'm not sure its ever happened. At least not in my life time. Maybe I'm missing someone.
 

NomarsFool

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He was one of the people I wanted the Celtics to draft at 14, wIll be interesting. I hope he plays some decent minutes
I guess I shouldn't have said that. I didn't actually want him to score 24 points in helping the Pistons win.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Doumbouya doesn't turn 20 until next December.
In regards to Langford?

Doumbouya's been starting since January and has put up 14.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.0 steals on .544/.414/.700 shooting. He's way ahead of where he was projected to be.
 

NomarsFool

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It's amazing how his season has just exploded recently. He was in the G-league, had a couple of 2 minute games, and now all of a sudden seems to be a big player for them.
 

Kliq

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I am still optimistic with Romeo, but I did like Doumbouya on draft night and wanted the Celtics to take him because his ceiling seemed really high. Giannis is both an obvious and unfair comp, but some of his finishes around the rim were similar; they are dunks that just look different because of how crazy-long his arms are.

Detroit is the walking wounded at this point, they have a bunch of guys down including their three best shot creators in Blake, Reggie Jackson and Kennard. The time is ripe for a young guy to get a chance to put up some numbers.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I am still optimistic with Romeo, but I did like Doumbouya on draft night and wanted the Celtics to take him because his ceiling seemed really high. Giannis is both an obvious and unfair comp, but some of his finishes around the rim were similar; they are dunks that just look different because of how crazy-long his arms are.

Detroit is the walking wounded at this point, they have a bunch of guys down including their three best shot creators in Blake, Reggie Jackson and Kennard. The time is ripe for a young guy to get a chance to put up some numbers.
To me, Doumbouya still profiles as a 3 and D guy. He's odd because that's what his projection was and he's already there at just 19. I don't think he has the ability to create for others and really hasn't created shots for himself in the early going. Granted, he did just turned 19 and is the youngest player in the NBA. Players don't always develop the way you expect.
 

Big John

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It's too early to tell if you can put the failure to take Dounbouya on the list of Ainge's drafting mistakes, but it's starting to trend in that direction.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It's too early to tell if you can put the failure to take Dounbouya on the list of Ainge's drafting mistakes, but it's starting to trend in that direction.
If Doumbouya develops into Paul George and Langford develops into Donovan Mitchell, is it really a failure or mistake? At some point, blaming Ainge for not picking these guys is ridiculous. Even Detroit didn't realize what they had at the beginning of the season.

If Langford develops into a 30 minute+ rotational player, the pick was a success regardless of who was picked after him. People are going to focus on the Donovan Mitchell part but he could turn into Avery Bradley and the point remains the same. Getting a starter at the end of the lottery is not a failure.
 

Big John

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Well, at the moment Doumbouya is looking alot more like Pacal Siakam than Langford is looking like Donovan Mitchell.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Missing the point. If a player drafted at 14 ends up better than 6-7 guys drafted in front of him and worse than 1 player drafted behind him... is that a failure to you?

Seems pretty short sited to judge a draft only by the players taken behind you. Who knows how this draft ends up, but if Langford ends up being better than the 14th best player taken in the draft... It's a success. Anything worse than 15th would be a failure.
 

Big John

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Doumbouya becomes a star and Langford becomes a decent NBA rotation player who is better than some of the guys drafted ahead of him. Is that "success?"
We've seen this movie before. Yes, it's a miniscule sample size but the size of the sample will be increasing, so we'll see what happens.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Doumbouya becomes a star and Langford becomes a decent NBA rotation player who is better than some of the guys drafted ahead of him. Is that "success?"
We've seen this movie before. Yes, it's a miniscule sample size but the size of the sample will be increasing, so we'll see what happens.
That's what I was asking you. Do you think it's a success? I do. I get it's not sexy but if every pick has to be best player available, pretty much everything is going to be a failure. If you want to consider a guy like KO a failure, that's fine. I'm talking about a starting quality player on basically every team in the NBA.

Do you think Jonathan Isaac and Lauri Markkanen were bad picks because of Bam and Mitchell? Were Fox, Zach Collins and Luke Kennard also bad picks?

Fultz, Ball, Jackson, Ntilikina, DSJ, Monk. sure.
 

Big John

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That's what I was asking you. Do you think it's a success? I do.
I don't.
That's why GM's get the big bucks: to identify talent. And when you have a chance at a major talent and instead select a minor one, well, that's what mediocre organizations do. Any dumbell can select the player that 90% of the draft websites think he ought to select.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Lol, Doumbouya puts up 267 minutes of 13.3 PER and it's already torches and pitchforks for Ainge?

Heck, if you want to beat yourselves up over passing on random mystery teenagers, the guy you should really be crushed about is Alen Smailagić.
 

benhogan

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That's what I was asking you. Do you think it's a success? I do. I get it's not sexy but if every pick has to be best player available, pretty much everything is going to be a failure. If you want to consider a guy like KO a failure, that's fine. I'm talking about a starting quality player on basically every team in the NBA.

Do you think Jonathan Isaac and Lauri Markkanen were bad picks because of Bam and Mitchell? Were Fox, Zach Collins and Luke Kennard also bad picks?

Fultz, Ball, Jackson, Ntilikina, DSJ, Monk. sure.
It's way too early to judge which players are better after a handful of games.

BUT in fairness, Big John was banging the Doumbouya drum pretty hard since last Spring, pre-draft, draft night, all summer, etc (dozens of posts on him).

So if he wants to complain about Danny not picking him and the guy blows up, he's entitled.

Sure, lots of teams miss on lots of players. Some teams, like the Spurs, miss less. Ainge is middle-of-the-road as a drafter in my opinion, although he's made great trades.
I'll go on record to state that I don't like the Langford pick; I would have selected Doumbouya. Maybe three years from now Langford will be an all-star and Doumbouya will be playing Pro A in Strasbourg or Dijon, but I would still take that risk.
Hope you guys are right and I am wrong. But the NBA is full of 6-6 guys who are pretty good but not great. You can pick up guys like that for a song. Doumbouya is young and raw but he's 6-9 with a good wingspan and tremendous athleticism. He did quite well at age 17 in French Pro A, which is stronger competition than NCAA ball. Could he be a total bust? Sure. But at some point you have to find stars.
 

Big John

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I said in my initial post that the sample size is still very small. Doumbouya could be a bust and Langford could be a star. It's too early too tell, but I did say which way the trend seems to be going.

We are playing "what if", that's all.

And if folks continue to maintain that Olynyk was a good pick and Giannis was just a lucky outlier, they are entitled to their opinions.
 

nighthob

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It's way too early to judge which players are better after a handful of games.

BUT in fairness, Big John was banging the Doumbouya drum pretty hard since last Spring, pre-draft, draft night, all summer, etc (dozens of posts on him).

So if he wants to complain about Danny not picking him and the guy blows up, he's entitled.
He wasn’t the only one. ;)
 

lovegtm

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Yeah - I know Olynyk has become the quintissential "low ceiling" guy by dint of being drafted before Giannis, and while there's some truth to that, I think it's also a bit overblown. Just as Giannis represents a top 2% outcome for that pick, the top 2% outcomes for Kelly Olynyk are likewise phenomenal as a floor spacing scorer and passer with excellent defensive positioning in a league where help defense is more and more important. Upside Olynyk isn't an MVP unlike Giannis, so there's some truth to the upside point, but he's...Nikola Jokic (better shooting, worse passing, but same concept - apologies for white/white player comparison), which isn't especially low upside either.
This is a criminally underrated point, I think because it's so hard to imagine stars not becoming stars, and vice versa. But the line is really, insanely thin.

The easy way I've found make it more visceral is to imagine what player a guy would be if you added or subtracted a couple key attributes that it was not at all apparent at draft time he had or would acquire. Some of the comps aren't even bad players--they're just in different worlds.

Giannis 20 lbs lighter and with 5-15% worse footwork/handle: Jonathan Isaac.

Luka if the athleticism translates just a bit worse and the stepback 3 isn't a weapon: chunky Lonzo

Trae if the 3s didn't start falling: elite-passing Carsen Edwards.

Tatum without elite defense and potential for a PnR game: Jeff Green.

(Incidentally, this is also why I think it's not crazy to compare young guys to stars way better than them, even if it's likely they never hit that. They're often not that far away, and the unlikeliness comes more from the rarity of certain marginal skills developing than it does from the 2 guys being from different planets.)
 

NomarsFool

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Picking where the Celtics have been picking lately, I think you have basically two strategies:

1) Pick guys that have a decent chance of being cheap, role players who can play 10-18 minutes a game. The high floor, low ceiling types. The challenge, I would think, is that it seems like it takes those guys 2-3 years to develop into that role. If it works, a few years from now you have the Jays in their prime, and you have people like Carsen and Grant filling out the bench.

2) Pick guys that have a small chance of being impact players, but also have a very high likelihood of never setting foot on an NBA court. The low floor, high ceiling types.

I can see the value in #1, but I'd think that it isn't that difficult to find veterans who can do that job. Maybe I'm wrong. With a number of bites at the apple this Spring in the draft, I think I'd like the Celtics to see if they can find magic in a bottle and draft a couple guys with strategy #2.
 

lovegtm

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Picking where the Celtics have been picking lately, I think you have basically two strategies:

1) Pick guys that have a decent chance of being cheap, role players who can play 10-18 minutes a game. The high floor, low ceiling types. The challenge, I would think, is that it seems like it takes those guys 2-3 years to develop into that role. If it works, a few years from now you have the Jays in their prime, and you have people like Carsen and Grant filling out the bench.

2) Pick guys that have a small chance of being impact players, but also have a very high likelihood of never setting foot on an NBA court. The low floor, high ceiling types.

I can see the value in #1, but I'd think that it isn't that difficult to find veterans who can do that job. Maybe I'm wrong. With a number of bites at the apple this Spring in the draft, I think I'd like the Celtics to see if they can find magic in a bottle and draft a couple guys with strategy #2.
To be fair, Langford was a pretty high-ceiling, high-variance pick. I was fine-ish with the Celtics approach in the draft this year, and now you see if you can get the actual players themselves to perform.
 

NomarsFool

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To be fair, Langford was a pretty high-ceiling, high-variance pick. I was fine-ish with the Celtics approach in the draft this year, and now you see if you can get the actual players themselves to perform.
Fair point. The thing that really bothered me about that pick is that I feel like the Celtics are pretty well set at wing with Tatum and Brown for the foreseeable future. I wanted them to take a gamble at a big, because there isn't anyone you can realistically expect to pencil in there (I liked TL this season, but I just don't think he can stay on the court).
 

lovegtm

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Fair point. The thing that really bothered me about that pick is that I feel like the Celtics are pretty well set at wing with Tatum and Brown for the foreseeable future. I wanted them to take a gamble at a big, because there isn't anyone you can realistically expect to pencil in there (I liked TL this season, but I just don't think he can stay on the court).
Given that you can play wings at 2-4 (and sometimes at the 1) in the modern NBA (especially Tatum and Brown, who are strong), this really isn't an issue.
 

Big John

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To be fair, Langford was a pretty high-ceiling, high-variance pick. I was fine-ish with the Celtics approach in the draft this year, and now you see if you can get the actual players themselves to perform.
Yes, that's right, and you could say exactly the same thing about Doubouya. And the fact is that Doumbouya is performing and Langford isn't.
 

lovegtm

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Yes, that's right, and you could say exactly the same thing about Doubouya. And the fact is that Doumbouya is performing and Langford isn't.
Teams would do better at drafting if they could wait until January of the season and then go back and re-do the picks. Also, water is wet.
 

Big John

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Teams would do better at drafting if they could foresee in June who would look better in January (and beyond).
 

bowiac

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No team has enough wings. I didn't like the Langford pick since I don't like the player, but wings are like starting pitchers. Just keep drafting them.
 

lovegtm

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No team has enough wings. I didn't like the Langford pick since I don't like the player, but wings are like starting pitchers. Just keep drafting them.
Particularly in a league that has maybe 2-3 guys who really require a true big to defend them in the post.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yes, that's right, and you could say exactly the same thing about Doubouya. And the fact is that Doumbouya is performing and Langford isn't.
It's not that Langford isn't performing, it's that he isn't getting any opportunity. Which we all knew going into this season. If RL's and Doumbouya's draft positions were switched, we'd be having the same discussion about why Romeo is performing but Doumbouya is not.

For example, take the Pistons game. RL played for 9 minutes in the first half. Do you know how many touches he got in the half court?


Other than the times he brought the ball up, I believe it was zero. Romeo stands in the corner and waits. And waits some more. But do you really want Romeo to be taking touches away from the other Cs in the first half of a game?

Will Doumbouya be able to create for others on offense? Is he going to be able to a pick and roll initiator? At this point, if he is, it seems like a long way off but Romeo had great results in college off the PnR.

I'm all for drafting 3 & D guys but seems to me that DA took a shot on a wing that has a chance to be pretty special offensively.

And it's funny in a thread that talked about DA not taking high ceiling picks people criticize the Romeo choice. Romeo is not a low ceiling pick.
 

Jimbodandy

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Just noting that this is the second time this week that I have read something on this forum stating that people/Celtics fans/"we" are knocking Ainge's balls off for his drafting record. It's not we. It's the same one dude over and over.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Well, at the moment Doumbouya is looking alot more like Pacal Siakam than Langford is looking like Donovan Mitchell.
Doumbouya's last 9 games: 24.1 minutes, .266/.207/.769, 5.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks, 1.7 TO, 1.7 PF.
 

NomarsFool

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He's definitely all over the place. But, he is also the youngest player in the NBA at the moment. The bumps in his development are for everyone to see.
 

Cesar Crespo

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2016
3 Jaylen Brown -top 40 player
16 Yabusele- bust. Ainge had to pick 2 draft and stash guys because he was unable to trade the picks and had no roster spots.
23 Zizic- bust. Throw in in Irving trade. See Yabu.
31 Deyonta Davis- Traded along with Rade for a 2019 1st round pick. Out of the League.
35 Rade Zagorac- See Devonte. Never played in NBA.
45 Demetrius Jackson- washout, expected.
51 Ben Bentil- washout, expected
58 Abdel Nader- traded away but looks to have settled into a 10th-12th man role.

2017
3 Tatum- top 20 player, maybe top 15.
37 Semi- He's Semi.
53 Kadeem Allen- Washed out, expected
56 Jabari Bird- threw his career away strangling a woman 12 times in a 4 hour period. Fuck this guy.

2018
27 Robert Williams


That's one hell of a 3 year period. They drafted 2 stars to build around in Jayson and Jaylen in back to back years. With the emergence of TL, it's quite possible they drafted 3 stars to build around in back to back to back years. While Yabu and Zizic were wasted picks, there wasn't much Ainge could do about it. He also managed to turn 2 2nd round picks into a 2019 1st round pick and picked up a cheap bench player for 4 years in Semi Ojeleye. He did all this while never winning less than 48 games in a season.

Jayson/Jaylen/TL is a great core to build around. Some people think Jayson and Jaylen are a little redundant but I don't see it. I think all 3 players compliment each other well and that TL is the perfect big to pair up with the Jays. While Jayson and Jaylen have improved greatly in their playmaking skills this year, I'm not sure it will ever be a strength of theirs (nor do I think it's a weakness). It is clearly a strength of Time Lord's. All 3 have good length and 2 are freak athletes.

----------------------
Add in 2019
14 Romeo Langford- Total Wildcard, really. Hasn't played much. Insane length, great athlete. He is the "high ceiling" guy on the C's right now.
20 Thybulle- Traded for Carsen Edwards and a 2020 1st round pick (Bane).
22 Williams- He plays at least. I am not a Williams fan at all and wish he was stapled to the bench. Still too early.
51 Tremont Waters- Bum, expected
*Carsen Edwards- I thought he was a bum who would wash out of the league last year but I think in the right situation he could stick around.


The 2019 draft to date has been a failure but whether it stays that way or not will ultimately depend on Langford's development. He already looks like a plus defender. Given his athletic ability and ridiculous 7'0 wing span, that's not too surprising. If he can develop any type of shot, look out. I'm not sure he gets there, but when looking at Langford I see a more athletic Marcus Smart with less playmaking ability but better driving ability and/or a smaller Jaylen Brown. Watching him play the other night reminded me of how much upside he has. It's considerably more than Nesmith. Again, I'm not sure if he gets there but the last 2 crazy, raw athletic guys the Celtics drafted did (Jaylen, TL). The Thybulle trade was smart in theory. I'm not high on Thybulle, Edwards hasn't worked out, and they attached the 1st round pick to dump Kanter.


If Langford does turn into a 25+ minute rotation player, it drastically changes the narrative on Ainge's drafting the last decade or so. The narrative being he doesn't draft that well outside of the high lottery because he picks low ceiling players. TL and RL are anything but. Both have also missed a lot of time over the last 3 seasons so up until recently, they were both pretty easy to forget about. It's impossible to forget about TL now. I feel far more comfortable with Romeo becoming a serviceable player than Aaron Nesmith. If he's healthy, I have a hard time seeing someone with RL's combination of length and athleticism not panning out. I'm still holding out hope that both become decent players. I worry about Nesmith a little because even RL showed flashes last year. The best you can say about Nesmith is he tries on defense.

Either way, getting your 2 star wing players and an emerging top 10 center in back to back to back drafts is a great feat regardless of where you are picking. With as long as Ainge has been around, one would think he'd eventually get really lucky with a later pick. It's possibly he finally lucked into one at the perfect time.
 

BigSoxFan

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The emergence of TL has really taken the air out of the "Ainge can't draft" argument. He basically got 3 franchise cornerstones in 3 consecutive drafts. He navigated the Fultz stuff perfectly. Jaylen wasn't close to an easy slam dunk pick either. Could have easily ended up with Hield or Dunn there. And TL kind of fell into our lap but he still pulled the trigger. Romeo frustrates the living hell out of me but the talent and athleticism is there. Jury is still out but he's not a bust yet. Grant was a meh pick for me but the alternatives weren't that enticing either. Nesmith is more iffy but the shooting should eventually play and he's making incremental improvements on defense. Pritchard is looking like a solid bench piece as well.
 

nighthob

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The best part about Robert Williams is that Boston was desperately trying to trade up in 2018 so that they could pick him, and no one would deal with Ainge.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Either way, getting your 2 star wing players and an emerging top 10 center in back to back to back drafts is a great feat regardless of where you are picking. With as long as Ainge has been around, one would think he'd eventually get really lucky with a later pick. It's possibly he finally lucked into one at the perfect time.
I would hope that when selecting 3rd you’d pick up star players but the Tatum moved was Auerbachian. Having TL and Romeo in the mix furthers my anger of passing on so many upside guys in favor of frontcourt plodders like Olynyk, Sullinger and Grant.
 

lovegtm

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The emergence of TL has really taken the air out of the "Ainge can't draft" argument. He basically got 3 franchise cornerstones in 3 consecutive drafts. He navigated the Fultz stuff perfectly. Jaylen wasn't close to an easy slam dunk pick either. Could have easily ended up with Hield or Dunn there. And TL kind of fell into our lap but he still pulled the trigger. Romeo frustrates the living hell out of me but the talent and athleticism is there. Jury is still out but he's not a bust yet. Grant was a meh pick for me but the alternatives weren't that enticing either. Nesmith is more iffy but the shooting should eventually play and he's making incremental improvements on defense. Pritchard is looking like a solid bench piece as well.
To be fair, every single good player who goes later than 25th "fell into the lap" of the drafting team, since pretty much everyone else had a shot at the guy.