Foundation for next year?

effectivelywild

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What are specific benefits for hitters of a juiced ball? I assume that it simply means that, for a given launch angle and exit velocity, the ball travels further. Has it be theorized that it impacts pitch spin or exit velocity? If it's simply that hard-hit balls go further, the Vaz's increase in offense this year is real....barrel % went from 1.9% to 6.1%, his EV went from 87.2 to 88.7 and his hard hit % went from 28.6% to 39.1%.
Well, since the seams are now flatter, I think there is the belief that it makes it harder for pitchers to grip the ball well, resulting in some loss of spin as well.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Rob Bradford made a case on the pregame radio show today to sign Porcello to a one year contract. First, it shouldn't be terribly expensive after this season's display.. Second, he is an every other year performer so far (so was Josh Beckett as I recall). Third, it would be in his interest to strive for an impressive year as a springboard towards getting a longer term contract.

Might be worth considering, especially as Sale seems a big question mark.
The Sox have leverage with Porcello. They could threaten him with the qualifying offer if he thinks he can get a multi year deal elsewhere. They could simply offer him 1 year/$10 mil, but I suspect they use that leverage on something like a 2/$16-18 mil deal.
 

chawson

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The Sox have leverage with Porcello. They could threaten him with the qualifying offer if he thinks he can get a multi year deal elsewhere. They could simply offer him 1 year/$10 mil, but I suspect they use that leverage on something like a 2/$16-18 mil deal.
Porcello would accept the QO in a heartbeat, no way.

Guys like Drew Smyly, Homer Bailey, Andrew Cashner, Gio Gonzalez and Ivan Nova should cost about $1-5 million next year. Is Porcello — aka the second-worst starter in 2019 by xFIP — really worth $13-15 million more than that?
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Looking at the tax thresholds of $208/$228/$248 getting under the lowest cap doesn't happen in 2020 unless they're committing to a rebuild.

Per Cot's they're at $151.1 for luxury tax purposes with the following contracts:

David Price
JD Martinez
Nathan Eovaldi
Chris Sale
Xander Bogaerts
Dustin Pedroia
Christian Vazquez

Betts, Bradley and E.Rod could easily be $45 mil between the 3 of them. Barnes, Workman and Benintendi could easily be another $8-12. Rounding out the roster with the likes of Pre-arb guys like Devers, Marco, Chavis, Darwinzon and others would be another $8-10. I know a good $15 mil or so for benefits is added in here, but we're starting in the $225-230 range assuming every non-free agent is back.

There needs to be some compromise here, I think someone like Brock Holt is a luxury for example. I'd argue that if they can find a taker for Price with only a $5 mil a year kicker, they have to consider it. They have to consider dealing JBJ and seeing if you can find a Left Fielder for half the price. Somebody like Alex Gordon may be a cheaper option.
 
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HangingW/ScottCooper

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Porcello would accept the QO in a heartbeat, no way.

Guys like Drew Smyly, Homer Bailey, Andrew Cashner, Gio Gonzalez and Ivan Nova should cost about $1-5 million next year. Is Porcello — aka the second-worst starter in 2019 by xFIP — really worth $13-15 million more than that?
You're probably right that he accepts it, but it is an element of leverage. He's a year removed from being a 2.4 WAR player and effectively being worth the qualifying offer (I believe it will be in the 18 range) as an annual salary on a multi year deal. Coming off a down year, that obviously changes, but unencumbered by a QO, I could see him getting 10-12 a year on a 3 year deal.
 

DanoooME

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Porcello would accept the QO in a heartbeat, no way.

Guys like Drew Smyly, Homer Bailey, Andrew Cashner, Gio Gonzalez and Ivan Nova should cost about $1-5 million next year. Is Porcello — aka the second-worst starter in 2019 by xFIP — really worth $13-15 million more than that?
These guys are all likely to be higher than that. The <$5M range is typically guys that get hurt a lot and are ineffective. Smyly has been hurt a lot, but has been decent. The other 4 guys aren't as good, but they've mostly been healthy too. Most of those guys are going to go in the $5-M$8M range. Last year, Matt Harvey got $11M (high ceiling), Trevor Cahill got $9M (younger and decent past), Sabathia got $8M (Yankees), Derek Holland got $7M (can't explain that one), Tyson Ross got $5.75M (oops), Wade Miley got $4.5M. Bailey, Cashner and Nova should be on the lower end of that range; Smyly and Gio will be higher.
 

JimD

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They have to consider dealing JBJ and seeing if you can find a Left Fielder for half the price. Somebody like Alex Gordon may be a cheaper option.
What does Bradley realistically fetch in a trade? Taking on someone else's bad contract doesn't work in this scenario, given the need to subtract his salary from the payroll. If Martinez, Betts and Price are still on the roster, I can see JBJ either being moved for a couple of lottery tickets or even non-tendered.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Thankfully Pomeranz sucked this year.
Until he resurrected himself as a reliever in Milwaukee. He's ditched the disastrous cutter, sinker and change and gone back to basics as a two-pitch pitcher. His curve was always a solid weapon, and with his FB suddenly playing up to 94-95 out of the pen, he's a good pitcher again. 32 Ks/8 BBs in 19-plus innings, .653 OPS allowed, 3.17 FIP. He's only going to be 31 next year and appears healthy. I think he'll draw some interest over the winter.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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What does Bradley realistically fetch in a trade? Taking on someone else's bad contract doesn't work in this scenario, given the need to subtract his salary from the payroll. If Martinez, Betts and Price are still on the roster, I can see JBJ either being moved for a couple of lottery tickets or even non-tendered.
I would think that a team on the cusp of contending with a need in CF would gladly add one cost-controlled year of a GG caliber player who is contact-challenged but has some pop and decent on base skill. What's that worth? Maybe a Darwinzon Hernandez level prospect? Or a couple years of an established middle reliever?
 

EricFeczko

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Rob Bradford made a case on the pregame radio show today to sign Porcello to a one year contract. First, it shouldn't be terribly expensive after this season's display.. Second, he is an every other year performer so far (so was Josh Beckett as I recall). Third, it would be in his interest to strive for an impressive year as a springboard towards getting a longer term contract.

Might be worth considering, especially as Sale seems a big question mark.
This seems like a terrible idea, almost as bad as when we signed Justin Masterson for 10 milion, for no reason whatsoever.

25995

I don't see any evidence of launch angle effects. However, he was a fringe-effective starter due to his limited velocity, which has now started to bottom out. If he's asking for 10 mil, I suspect he won't get signed until (or even after) spring training.
 

chrisfont9

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The Sox have leverage with Porcello. They could threaten him with the qualifying offer if he thinks he can get a multi year deal elsewhere. They could simply offer him 1 year/$10 mil, but I suspect they use that leverage on something like a 2/$16-18 mil deal.
Everybody has leverage over Porcello because he wants to keep pitching and he doesn't presently deserve much of a chance to do so. Not for a good team anyway. So he can take a short, cheap deal on a number of teams, but that's probably about it. I agree with Red Hawks, just because he's had bounce-back years before doesn't mean he will again, and especially doesn't mean anyone should pay him with this expected result..
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
This seems like a terrible idea, almost as bad as when we signed Justin Masterson for 10 milion, for no reason whatsoever.

View attachment 25995

I don't see any evidence of launch angle effects. However, he was a fringe-effective starter due to his limited velocity, which has now started to bottom out. If he's asking for 10 mil, I suspect he won't get signed until (or even after) spring training.
Also, why would a one-year deal be an effective springboard to a longer-term contract when the final year of his current contract wasn't? If the prospect of a big payday would bring the best out of him it should have done so already. Pillow contracts work for guys who are coming off injuries or inexplicable dips from their norm. But it's pretty clear now that mediocrity *is* Porcello's norm; 2016 is the outlier.
 

chrisfont9

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But it's pretty clear now that mediocrity *is* Porcello's norm; 2016 is the outlier.
Well that's the argument, and he hopes some enterprising (re: desperate) GM disagrees with you. I'd say you are underselling him slightly though. He was a 3 WAR player in 2018 and a major contributor in the postseason. The list of available pitchers who can say that isn't terribly long.
 

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

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I wonder if Chacin could be an option for back end of the rotation next season. He's been around for a long time but he's still only 31. Obviously, he was terrible for the pitching-starved Brewers this year, but he was pretty damn good in 2017 and 2018.
Maybe it's not the age but the mileage, but I wonder if this year was more of an aberration than the past two.
 

chrisfont9

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I wonder if Chacin could be an option for back end of the rotation next season. He's been around for a long time but he's still only 31. Obviously, he was terrible for the pitching-starved Brewers this year, but he was pretty damn good in 2017 and 2018.
Maybe it's not the age but the mileage, but I wonder if this year was more of an aberration than the past two.
No downside to this. He's on the 40-man already and a few names will be coming off. He'll be a free agent so if there's a higher bidder he's gone, but with the Sox' depth needs (and the contingent of prominent Venezuelans on the team?) you'd think there's a good fit.
 

Plympton91

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Basically, between Chacin and Porcello and a few others like Drew Smyley, you hold a reverse auction. Put a 1-year, $3 million contract on the table and the first one to take it is your 5th starter.
 

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Maybe give him a spring training invite, but his last two outings don't suggest he's a guy I'd out in my top ten SP options.

And the rest of his 2019 wasn't very encouraging, either,
And that was my original question. Does his future look more like 2017 and 2018 or 2019? Obviously, we have no idea, but I'd love to know what those paid to figure this out think.
 

chawson

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Chacin is a nice reminder that we could get Porcello-ish production off the waiver wire, but he’s really got nothing that Hector doesn’t and he’s not an option if we’re trying to compete next year — which I’d like to hope we are.
 

the count

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Sep 20, 2019
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Some players I hope not to see on next years roster: first two are two of Alex' binkies.....and 2018 MVPs....Brian Johnson and Hector Valasquez. I just dont see it. they had some moments of non dreck, but for the most part when they come in...a game that is already out of reach usually quickly become far more out of reach.
Hembree....had a brief good run. got hurt. hasnt been the same since and (not to bring politics in) is a Trumper. Lol. Its not that he supports Trump that is my issue. It was how he voiced his support when asked why: ""Hell, yeah! I f--k with Trump!" the relief pitcher told a TMZ photographer when asked if he'd visit the president.
Brain dead mop up men we can do without.
Sam Travis. Nice guy. has shown a little pop against some lefties...but way too limited. no versatility here..
more to come
 

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

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Chacin is a nice reminder that we could get Porcello-ish production off the waiver wire, but he’s really got nothing that Hector doesn’t and he’s not an option if we’re trying to compete next year — which I’d like to hope we are.
Well sort of. What he's got is a very recent history of success at a level that Hector will never come close to approaching.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Some players I hope not to see on next years roster: first two are two of Alex' binkies.....and 2018 MVPs....Brian Johnson and Hector Valasquez. I just dont see it. they had some moments of non dreck, but for the most part when they come in...a game that is already out of reach usually quickly become far more out of reach.
Hembree....had a brief good run. got hurt. hasnt been the same since and (not to bring politics in) is a Trumper. Lol. Its not that he supports Trump that is my issue. It was how he voiced his support when asked why: ""Hell, yeah! I f--k with Trump!" the relief pitcher told a TMZ photographer when asked if he'd visit the president.
Brain dead mop up men we can do without.
Sam Travis. Nice guy. has shown a little pop against some lefties...but way too limited. no versatility here..
more to come
I'm willing to bet he's not the only guy on the team that pulls for 45. Baseball players come from all over and not many are known for being liberal. And as unsavory as some find Trump supporters to be, the roster should not be assembled based on political leanings; they're out there to play the game, not sway voters. If Hembree is toast, that's one thing. But just because he fucks with Trump doesn't mean he's useless as a ballplayer. If the team is looking to contend, they may move on. If not, he's a body and that might be the only real requirement if a rebuild is coming.

As for the other three players you mentioned, if they are under team control they should be here unless a deal can be struck to improve the team by shipping them off. Since both are fringe starters and candidates to be long men/white flag pitchers, maybe one doesn't make the cut but I wouldn't be shocked if both are back next season, unless both are free agents and get better offers.

If the team is looking to shed salary, Travis is a guy to keep so Moreland can move on; he has shown some good stuff and could be Chavis's platoon partner if they don't deal the Ice Horse. I'm not really interested in seeing them overpay for a marginally better 1B and I think the sun has set on Moreland's time here. Maybe they bring back Pearce on a make good contract at a much lower salary but that shouldn't prohibit giving Travis a shot to see if he can stick if they are leaning that way.
 

the count

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I'm willing to bet he's not the only guy on the team that pulls for 45. Baseball players come from all over and not many are known for being liberal. And as unsavory as some find Trump supporters to be, the roster should not be assembled based on political leanings; they're out there to play the game, not sway voters. If Hembree is toast, that's one thing. But just because he fucks with Trump doesn't mean he's useless as a ballplayer. If the team is looking to contend, they may move on. If not, he's a body and that might be the only real requirement if a rebuild is coming.

As for the other three players you mentioned, if they are under team control they should be here unless a deal can be struck to improve the team by shipping them off. Since both are fringe starters and candidates to be long men/white flag pitchers, maybe one doesn't make the cut but I wouldn't be shocked if both are back next season, unless both are free agents and get better offers.

If the team is looking to shed salary, Travis is a guy to keep so Moreland can move on; he has shown some good stuff and could be Chavis's platoon partner if they don't deal the Ice Horse. I'm not really interested in seeing them overpay for a marginally better 1B and I think the sun has set on Moreland's time here. Maybe they bring back Pearce on a make good contract at a much lower salary but that shouldn't prohibit giving Travis a shot to see if he can stick if they are leaning that way.
 

the count

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Wasnt suggesting Hembree not be brought back because of his poltiical leanings...i do believe he is like one of two hundred other journeyman relievers who top out at 93. The fact that he is a moron doesnt help. Moreland wont be back. Pearce wont be back. Im sure Holt will get a bigger better offer than we put on the table. As far as Johnson I dont want our hands to be tied with a lack of options. It would be nice to take the best 11 or 12 pitchers north after spring training...and not have to keep a very mediocre journeyman lefty who was lit up this year...simply because we fear losing him to another club.
 

AB in DC

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After this past month's performance I'd think Brian Johnson is more likely to be non-tendered this offseason than anything else.
 

the count

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I can only hope so. But never underestimate a managers love for certain veterans. I remain flabbergasted to this day that AC called Johnson and Velasquez the MVP's of the 2018 team. I understand he was trying to shine a light and a little glory on some guys he felt were unsong who made vitally important contributions....but they are so very replaceable.Chachin as an example...got him for nothing and he has pitched far better...if you excuse that fourth inning last night...than either Velaquez or Johnson
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Wasnt suggesting Hembree not be brought back because of his poltiical leanings...i do believe he is like one of two hundred other journeyman relievers who top out at 93. The fact that he is a moron doesnt help. Moreland wont be back. Pearce wont be back. Im sure Holt will get a bigger better offer than we put on the table. As far as Johnson I dont want our hands to be tied with a lack of options. It would be nice to take the best 11 or 12 pitchers north after spring training...and not have to keep a very mediocre journeyman lefty who was lit up this year...simply because we fear losing him to another club.
That's very true, but if it's a 6 of one, half-dozen of the other kind of deal, usually you go with the devil you know. But if they can upgrade, obviously that's a no-brainer.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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You can't cherrypick like that.

But if you do, you need to also throw out his last shitty game's bad batters, too.

Or just blame the manager for leaving him in too long, and then you can say he pitched great!
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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After this past month's performance I'd think Brian Johnson is more likely to be non-tendered this offseason than anything else.
I would think he's a likely candidate primarily because he's out of options (and has been for two years). If what we've seen of him this year is the reality of what he can do, they can find that elsewhere.

Velazquez has value because he can ride the shuttle for another year so he's not likely going anywhere. Neither is Hembree. When healthy, he was one of the more reliable guys they had this year. Better to hang on to the guy you know than bring in someone with a similar profile who could bomb out.
 

the count

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maybe im being too hard on Brian Johnson. I understand he has overcome any number of issues and challenges to make it to the majors. And I obviously know Alex C sees something in him that provides significant value to the team. I just hope our depth is upgraded enough over the next five months that we dont have to carry him on the big team's roster to start the 2020 season.
 

the count

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Hembree had a good run earlier this year when he was hitting 96 plus..and deserving of his nickname "Heater". He has not shown that same velocity since returning and has been far more hittable. On the subject of him not being the brightest bulb....he admitted that he essentially told the team he was good to go after his first IL stint...even though he acknowledged later that he didnt feel right. How stupid is that? It hurts himself and the team. A classic lose- lose situation
 

the count

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Just never been a fan. He has one pitch. A high fastball. Which he locates and its 96 plus...can be effective. When he struggles with command and location and its topping out at 93...that can be a problem
 

jon abbey

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Just never been a fan. He has one pitch. A high fastball. Which he locates and its 96 plus...can be effective. When he struggles with command and location and its topping out at 93...that can be a problem
This isn't a chat room, no one cares about your every half-assed observation. See you again in a few days.
 

The Gray Eagle

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I remain flabbergasted to this day that AC called Johnson and Velasquez the MVP's of the 2018 team. I understand he was trying to shine a light and a little glory on some guys he felt were unsong who made vitally important contributions....but they are so very replaceable.
In 2018, Velazquez and Johnson combined to pitch 184.1 innings at an ERA 3.71. That was incredibly valuable for both the rotation and the bullpen.
They both had bad years this year. If they had repeated their 2018 production, we would probably be still alive for the playoffs right now.

Their bad seasons this year don't take away what they did in 2018, which was incredibly valuable for depth starters who weren't even in the rotation.
 

chawson

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Johnson’s value always seemed to me to be tied up in his team control, and directly related to the lack of prospects we have. He’s a hard sell as a soft-tossing lefty in the AL East, but there was awhile there where that curveball was working and he looked like he could cut it as a league-average guy, four or five years of which we might have been able to sell to a second-division team as a Bronson Arroyo-style innings eater.

I expect there’ll be so many changes to the roster this offseason that guys like Johnson will be an afterthought, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him around for another year at pre-arb rates to see if he can improve his stock a bit.
 

Plympton91

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I'm willing to bet he's not the only guy on the team that pulls for 45. Baseball players come from all over and not many are known for being liberal. And as unsavory as some find Trump supporters to be, the roster should not be assembled based on political leanings; they're out there to play the game, not sway voters. If Hembree is toast, that's one thing. But just because he fucks with Trump doesn't mean he's useless as a ballplayer. If the team is looking to contend, they may move on. If not, he's a body and that might be the only real requirement if a rebuild is coming.

As for the other three players you mentioned, if they are under team control they should be here unless a deal can be struck to improve the team by shipping them off. Since both are fringe starters and candidates to be long men/white flag pitchers, maybe one doesn't make the cut but I wouldn't be shocked if both are back next season, unless both are free agents and get better offers.

If the team is looking to shed salary, Travis is a guy to keep so Moreland can move on; he has shown some good stuff and could be Chavis's platoon partner if they don't deal the Ice Horse. I'm not really interested in seeing them overpay for a marginally better 1B and I think the sun has set on Moreland's time here. Maybe they bring back Pearce on a make good contract at a much lower salary but that shouldn't prohibit giving Travis a shot to see if he can stick if they are leaning that way.
The problem with Hembree is that his arbitration salary will be at least twice what he’d get if nontendered. Hopefully they can convince him of this nicely and bring him back for about $1 milllion instead of the $3 million he’ll get in arb. If Henry is concerned about the luxury tax hits as the tax rate continues to rise, then those are the types of savings they need to get. If Hembree won’t take $1 million, then they can just bottom feed next March among what’s left or maybe Lakins et al improve enough over the winter that they become acceptable 10th men, which is what Hembree is.

I disagree about Moreland. I think his freakish injuries over the past couple years are masking a player who is quite productive. Unless one of those injuries is more chronic than they appear, I’d roll the dice on him if he stays below $5 million. Travis and Chavis aren’t a platoon, they both hit RH.
 

Plympton91

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I would think he's a likely candidate primarily because he's out of options (and has been for two years). If what we've seen of him this year is the reality of what he can do, they can find that elsewhere.

Velazquez has value because he can ride the shuttle for another year so he's not likely going anywhere. Neither is Hembree. When healthy, he was one of the more reliable guys they had this year. Better to hang on to the guy you know than bring in someone with a similar profile who could bomb out.
With both these guys I think what the league plans to do about the ball and whether the insiders know more about what exactly is up with the ball than us plebes makes a big difference.

If we’re continuing to play with home run derby special edition baseballs, then Johnson and Velazquez will continue to not get enough movement to be effective. If they’re going back to the old ball next year after this travasmockery of a season, then I’d bet on them returning to prior usefulness form as well.
 

Manramsclan

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With both these guys I think what the league plans to do about the ball and whether the insiders know more about what exactly is up with the ball than us plebes makes a big difference.

If we’re continuing to play with home run derby special edition baseballs, then Johnson and Velazquez will continue to not get enough movement to be effective. If they’re going back to the old ball next year after this travasmockery of a season, then I’d bet on them returning to prior usefulness form as well.
Not that I advocate holding onto him, but this probably goes for Porcello too. The questions about the ball and how to evaluate players moving forwards is a really tricky issue.
 

the count

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Last word on Hembreee, despite a decent run at one point, he gave up seven homers in 38⅔ innings, with a 4.87 FIP. I would hope over the course of the winter the baseball ops can find a better alternative to help round out the bullpen
 

Lose Remerswaal

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We get that you don't like him. He has always had high HR numbers.

None of us want him as one of the top three high leverage guys in the 2020 pen, but if he comes back at a reasonable price, I'd have him as my 5, 6, or 7 guy. He did pretty ok in 2018
 

the count

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Sep 20, 2019
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Also a bit concerned about his health. Apparently he rushed himself back the first time and was not good with a noticeable drop in velocity. His last outing was similar.
 

BaseballJones

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Geez, I didn't realize Hembree has been with the Sox since 2014. Hard to believe. He's been the definition of solid back-end bullpen guy.

In his six seasons with Boston:
- 3.64 era (never better than 2.65, never worse than 4.50 - which he had over 10 innings in 2014)
- 1.36 whip (never better than 1.33, never worse than 1.45)
- 9.6 k/9 (never better than 11.4, never worse than 5.3)

Last three seasons:
- 3.92 era
- 1.38 whip
- 10.7 k/9

As @Lose Remerswaal said, none of us wants him being a top 3 option out of the pen, but we'd all be fools for thinking that there's an easy and inexpensive way to improve on him as a back-end-of-the-bullpen guy. He's perfectly fine in that role.
 

the count

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Sep 20, 2019
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With his raking in the Arizona Fall League, more and more astute baseball insiders are talking up CJ Chatham as the Sox 2nd baseman in 2020:
Chatham had his best year in the minors in 2019. He hit .298 between Double-A and Triple-A with 31 doubles, one triple, and five home runs. The 24-year-old drove in 46 runs and scored 50 more, stealing seven bases in eight attempts.
He puts the bat on the ball and keeps strikeouts to a minimum. Meanwhile, the glove is real and should actually play very nicely at second base
 

bosox79

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As @Lose Remerswaal said, none of us wants him being a top 3 option out of the pen, but we'd all be fools for thinking that there's an easy and inexpensive way to improve on him as a back-end-of-the-bullpen guy. He's perfectly fine in that role.
I dunno. He's the definition of fungible. He's still cheap so I don't care if he's back next year or not but I doubt he'd be very hard to replace. He's going to be making less than $2 mil next year. I guess if the Sox are trying to cut payroll around the edges, he could be a casualty. I'm not convinced he's really any better than Colton Brewer, Ryan Brasier, Travis Lakins, etc. and those are all cheaper options. You'd think Barnes, Workman, Taylor, Hernandez and Walden are all returning so that leaves maybe 2-3 more spots in the bullpen depending on if they go with 12 or 13 arms. I guess it's possibly with a 26 man roster they could go with 14 arms.

Unless the $1.5-2mil actually makes a difference re the luxury tax or making a trade/signing, he's going to be back. He's going to be the 2nd highest paid bullpen arm on the team too unless they sign someone or Workman gets awarded a huge raise.
 

E5 Yaz

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With his raking in the Arizona Fall League, more and more astute baseball insiders are talking up CJ Chatham as the Sox 2nd baseman in 2020:
Please link to these "astute baseball insiders" so that we can read what they have to say