Formula 1 2024: Ferrari's Return to Glory. Possibly. Ok, Unlikely.

Chainsaw318

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We have ourselves a championship now.
Lando may be too far back, 70 pts with 9 races left, but McLaren is only 30 back in the Constructors.

Last time constructors championship was won by someone other than Red Bull or Mercedes is 2009.
 

burstnbloom

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Red Bull was destined to have a similar performance to the last race but will likely adjust before the next grand prix. If the rest of the races ended like today, Lando would win the championship.
 

Silverdude2167

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I think it will be close, but Lando would have to tie Max's record from last year if they go 1/2 to the finish.

I also think Lando has a grid penalty coming for an engine swap at some point.
 

burstnbloom

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There are some bad red bull tracks coming - Singapore is a nightmare for them and Vegas was a grind last year for them. You'd expect a significant adjustment from the last two races for Red Bull and it's a little hard to imagine Lando winning his second race on his 119th Grand Prix, then ripping off 9 more in a row.

They are fast, though. That's for sure.
 

Nick Kaufman

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With the difference between first and sixth being two tenths, the race tomorrow looks very promising. I just hope that Ferrari have a better racing than qualifying car like they tended to do this year so that they can take the fight to McLaren.

It's also looking more certain that Red Bull are going to lose the constructors to McLaren. Lando vs Max I don't know, but if Mclaren start grabbing the top spots in the next few races while Red Bull struggles to finish 5th or 6th then all bets are off.
 

Nick Kaufman

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There's a chance that McLaren and LeClerc made a mistake pitting so early. Well, I guess LeClerc definitely did.
 

Silverdude2167

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Lando and his starts man...but if Red Bull don't figure out what AN took off the car when he left it won't matter for either championship.
 

lovegtm

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McLaren's strategy and in-race execution has been so, so bad this year. They're incredibly un-dynamic: it feels like they're constantly surprised by race events, have bad communication from pitwall to drivers.....I'm honestly shocked at how much worse at it they are than other teams.

The car isn't as dominant as the RB20, but it's really, really good, and clearly head-and-shoulders above. The drivers have mostly done their jobs too. They need some serious overhauls on their in-race strategy side if they want to fully take advantage of this year and next, before the new regs hit.
 

tmracht

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McLaren's strategy and in-race execution has been so, so bad this year. They're incredibly un-dynamic: it feels like they're constantly surprised by race events, have bad communication from pitwall to drivers.....I'm honestly shocked at how much worse at it they are than other teams.

The car isn't as dominant as the RB20, but it's really, really good, and clearly head-and-shoulders above. The drivers have mostly done their jobs too. They need some serious overhauls on their in-race strategy side if they want to fully take advantage of this year and next, before the new regs hit.
It reminds me of the old Mercedes versus Red Bull. Mercedes was winning in spite of their pit wall, and eventually it started costing them once they were more even and max with more aggressive moves. Sometimes teams in front play it too safe, and actually benefit from being in the Chase position because it forces you to made bolder calls.
 

reggiecleveland

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Your point is fair, I was just having fun with the owners favorite.
If you know me at all, I am a big booster of all Canadian athletes, but this guy...no thanks.

Edit I did think Nicholas Latifi should be on the bachelorette as a contestant and in the opening credits, etc, but as the first episode began it would be revealed he crashed on the way to the studio, so was already eliminated.
 

Silverdude2167

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If you know me at all, I am a big booster of all Canadian athletes, but this guy...no thanks.

Edit I did think Nicholas Latifi should be on the bachelorette as a contestant and in the opening credits, etc, but as the first episode began it would be revealed he crashed on the way to the studio, so was already eliminated.
Lol
 

cgori

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If you know me at all, I am a big booster of all Canadian athletes, but this guy...no thanks.

Edit I did think Nicholas Latifi should be on the bachelorette as a contestant and in the opening credits, etc, but as the first episode began it would be revealed he crashed on the way to the studio, so was already eliminated.
I love this. Like I laughed for a good 30 seconds.
 

Nick Kaufman

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McLaren ahead in the constructors championship now and Red Bull not looking like they can come back.
Towards the end I think closed a 10 second gap to Verstappen in 7-8 laps or something.
 

swiftaw

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Yeah, great race. Interesting that Perez (before the crash) seemed to have a lot more pace than Max.
 

swiftaw

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McLaren ahead in the constructors championship now and Red Bull not looking like they can come back.
Towards the end I think closed a 10 second gap to Verstappen in 7-8 laps or something.
He was 17 seconds behind when he came out of the pits, with 16 laps to go.
 

kfoss99

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7th for Albon!
Sounds like that was due to a crash, but I'll take it.
Success is fleeting in F1. It seemed like Verstappen would never lose, now it seems like he'll never win again (he probably will).
 

Nick Kaufman

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He was 17 seconds behind when he came out of the pits, with 16 laps to go.
Yeah, even allowing for the fresher tires, this seems quite fast.

FWIW, Peter Widsor was saying before the race that the track suited Perez because the 90 degree corners suit his style, so it's not a surprise that he beat Verstappen.

Having said that, he might be at fault for the collision with Sainz, though it could be just a race incident.
 

lovegtm

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Is there any replay anywhere of what happened in LeClerc's pitstop and out lap? He somehow lost 6 seconds in 2 laps without having a slow pitstop, and almost no one is discussing it except in passing.

Ferrari had the fastest car, and that should have been an easy win when he built that big lead and then only got undercut by one lap.
 

kfoss99

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Is there any replay anywhere of what happened in LeClerc's pitstop and out lap? He somehow lost 6 seconds in 2 laps without having a slow pitstop, and almost no one is discussing it except in passing.

Ferrari had the fastest car, and that should have been an easy win when he built that big lead and then only got undercut by one lap.
This was from Kathryn Xu's Defector Blog on the race. This might be the answer you're looking for.

"This wound up being McLaren's saving grace. The team was slow reacting after Pérez pitted, perhaps underestimating the severity of Piastri's tire degradation, and failed to cover him off. So it was Norris who was asked over the radio if he could please hold up Pérez without compromising his own race. Norris responded, "Yes, yes," in the way he commonly sounds over the radio: flat, somewhat aggrieved, and unobliging. But he held up his end of the bargain. The proof was in Pérez's own realization over the radio: "Yeah, he's [censored expletive, likely fucking] holding me." Norris was a sitting duck as Pérez entered the DRS zone on the straight-finish straight, but he had done just enough—Piastri exited the pits just one second in front of Pérez.

Leclerc pitted one lap after Piastri and provided some full context as to how much time Norris may have bought. When Leclerc exited the pits, the six-second separation had shrunk to just more than two seconds and the length of Alexander Albon's Williams. Before Leclerc even finished his out lap, Piastri was within two seconds. By the time Piastri made it past Albon the lap after, he was just 1.2 seconds behind Leclerc."
 

lovegtm

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This was from Kathryn Xu's Defector Blog on the race. This might be the answer you're looking for.

"This wound up being McLaren's saving grace. The team was slow reacting after Pérez pitted, perhaps underestimating the severity of Piastri's tire degradation, and failed to cover him off. So it was Norris who was asked over the radio if he could please hold up Pérez without compromising his own race. Norris responded, "Yes, yes," in the way he commonly sounds over the radio: flat, somewhat aggrieved, and unobliging. But he held up his end of the bargain. The proof was in Pérez's own realization over the radio: "Yeah, he's [censored expletive, likely fucking] holding me." Norris was a sitting duck as Pérez entered the DRS zone on the straight-finish straight, but he had done just enough—Piastri exited the pits just one second in front of Pérez.

Leclerc pitted one lap after Piastri and provided some full context as to how much time Norris may have bought. When Leclerc exited the pits, the six-second separation had shrunk to just more than two seconds and the length of Alexander Albon's Williams. Before Leclerc even finished his out lap, Piastri was within two seconds. By the time Piastri made it past Albon the lap after, he was just 1.2 seconds behind Leclerc."
Yeah, I re-watched that part of the race, and this still isn't quite capturing what happened. LeClerc had a ~25s lead when he entered the pits, and if you watch other pit stops, guys were losing 19-20s. LeClerc somehow lost more like 23s from when he went into the pit and the end of his out lap.

I guess LeClerc may have just been incredibly, wildly conservative in warming up his tires in the out lap? He definitely was playing not to lose, and seemed to be overly worried about tires, so maybe he just lost that much with warmup + Piastri/Perez pushing super-hard early in their stints.
 

Silverdude2167

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So, if the final 6 races and 3 sprints go Lando P1, Max P2, and Lando gets the fast lap in each race he will lose the championship by 1 point...1 point than Danny Ric took from him for fun in what was most likely his last race.
 

Nick Kaufman

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Interesting Leclerc interview:
There was a slight parallel between the early races of this year and the tricky period Leclerc went through with last year's Ferrari. A more compliant, stable Ferrari looked after its tyres better at the start of 2024 but this potentially came at the cost of the front-end agility Leclerc craves.

This doesn't align with Leclerc's natural, attacking style that works the rear hard, whereas it typically suits Sainz better. It was an easier car on paper, but one Leclerc struggled to maximise at times. But the biggest factor of all was that the capricious nature of these cars combined with the Pirelli tyres makes tyre warm-up a real menace.

"Actually I had forgot about that!" Leclerc laughs when The Race mentions the tyre warm-up problems from Japan in particular.

"That was probably one of the main reasons, if not the main reason at the beginning of season where I was struggling - sometimes the pace was there and the lap was really, really good but for some reason, just the grip available, because my outlap was done in a particularly wrong way, the laptime was just not great. And that was very frustrating.

"However, I've worked a lot on it, and from that moment it got better. But it is true that if there's a little bit less sun, if there's just a cloud going over the track, that makes a huge difference on tyres. And you've got to change and constantly adapt to a very slight change of conditions, which is not easy."
If a single cloud goes over the track, he has trouble warming up the tires!

At least, the new regs are making the racing more unpredictable:

"If you look along all the teams it's not like previous generation of cars, where you could see that whenever a team had momentum, they had understood something, and they are just getting better," Leclerc contends.

"Apart from McLaren recently, it's really up and down. You see sometimes Mercedes performing super well and then struggling. You see us as well, sometimes performing super well, and sometimes we are struggling quite a bit more. You see Red Bull also now, that have been super strong for many years, and now are struggling a little bit more.

"This generation of cars are a lot more difficult to understand and the slightest detail can have a big influence, and it makes a big difference on track. And the fact that we are so close together means you pay for the smallest mistake a lot more compared to previous generations of cars."
https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/peaky-ferrari-emotional-swings-hamilton-curiosity-leclerc-interview/
 

Nick Kaufman

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I won't lie, this guy doesn't inspire me as a leader of men. But, he does seem like a good guy and it looks as if he lost a few years of his life either serving an egomaniac who wanted stuff done yesterday or getting swallowed in the petty office politics of Renault. Worth a listen in the gym or the road.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5qyy0O5ztk
 

Silverdude2167

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F1 is back! and McLaren still doesn't know what they are doing.

Right or wrong, it was insane to leave it up to the stewards to determine if Norris will finish ahead of Max (especially after watching all the other penalties handed down during the race). You have the faster car, give back the place, and then you have 5 laps to take it back again.
 

cgori

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I won't lie, this guy doesn't inspire me as a leader of men. But, he does seem like a good guy and it looks as if he lost a few years of his life either serving an egomaniac who wanted stuff done yesterday or getting swallowed in the petty office politics of Renault. Worth a listen in the gym or the road.
Funny, I love this guy's approach and that is exactly the kind of person I like(d) working for.
 

lovegtm

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The rule about being ahead at the apex is completely broken, as currently interpreted.

If you have to run off track (as Max did), you weren't really ahead at the apex: you were just not braking ever.

Coming in at 300 km/h, you can always be "ahead at the apex" as the defending car if you're willing to just not brake and run off the road.
 

kfoss99

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Tuned in late, how did Albon get out of the race?

Going in it looked like it could have been a good day for Williams.
 

kfoss99

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Verstappen's aggressive driving is going to cost him a lot, today.

Doesn't look like it's going to be a good day for Red Bull.
 

Silverdude2167

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Lol, two 10 second penalties, the stewards and are really caving to McLaren and British complaining.

Forget that Norris should have had a 10 second penalty last week or that Max was completely within the rules...the Brits complain so we must make sure they are happy.

It's funny how no issue was made of McLaren running an illegal rear wing for 5+ races, th y were just told you stop...
 
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tmracht

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Yeah I don't think this is a British commentary thing, I think these rules need to be reverted to Stop Go or Drive Throughs for running a guy off the track "tactically". It's dangerous and stupid and is easy calculus for someone like Max to say yeah I'll knee cap Lando and lose nothing since I'll pull a 10 second gap easily over 4th or 5th.

This is a not an Anti-Max only, but really endemic of the lackadaisical methodology of the stewards and how much of a rubber knife a 5/10 second penalty they can be in the current generations.
 

Silverdude2167

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Yeah I don't think this is a British commentary thing, I think these rules need to be reverted to Stop Go or Drive Throughs for running a guy off the track "tactically". It's dangerous and stupid and is easy calculus for someone like Max to say yeah I'll knee cap Lando and lose nothing since I'll pull a 10 second gap easily over 4th or 5th.

This is a not an Anti-Max only, but really endemic of the lackadaisical methodology of the stewards and how much of a rubber knife a 5/10 second penalty they can be in the current generations.
My only issue yesterday was that Lando overtook off the track, did not give the place back, and then Max still got a 10-second penalty.

The second one—sure, it's 10 seconds easy—but 10 seconds where the "victim" gains an advantage is insane.
 

tmracht

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My only issue yesterday was that Lando overtook off the track, did not give the place back, and then Max still got a 10-second penalty.

The second one—sure, it's 10 seconds easy—but 10 seconds where the "victim" gains an advantage is insane.
Yeah I think that's fair enough, Lando a bit cheeky back to back weeks as well.

But really the whole system needs a second viewing.

But back to the sport, WCC is going to get real spicy if Sainz holds it together the rest of the season.
 

Nick Kaufman

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Per usual, amazing how much stuff we don't understand when watching a race.

It wasn't only tyres, though. McLaren had been keeping a very tight leash on his power unit settings as he sat behind Verstappen - and that had saved him quite a lot of fuel. He could now unleash that as he chased the Ferraris down. Then there was the wind.

"It's tiny details that make the difference between the cars," Norris said. "The wind changed direction and suddenly the car came alive."

So Leclerc - a little off Sainz's pace this weekend, the difference amplified in the race by having to do more lift and coasting to keep the temperatures under control compared to the race leader in clear air - was something of a sitting duck as Norris made his late advance. His only hope was to hold him off long enough that the McLaren began to overheat. But McLaren hadn’t gone quite as racy as Ferrari on cooling levels - which was quite possibly what won Sainz pole and the race over Norris.

Ferrari was bold in its choices for both power unit and brake cooling here. To the benefit of aero, of course. They were the sort of choices made by a team confident it could run at the front, and with an outside run at the constructors' championship.

Sainz made clinical use of it all. He lost out to Verstappen at the start, but he was half expecting that. "This is a low-grip surface," he pointed out, "and the Red Bull tends to start really well on these sorts of surfaces." He sat it out around the outside of the Red Bull into Turn 1 but with the escape route of the grass - which he took, before giving the lead back before they reached Turn 4.

He was irritated, though. Not so much with Verstappen, but because he knew he needed to be in clear air. He'd even hinted at it after setting pole. "It's very important for the cooling of the car and the management of the race to be leading." Especially with a marginal cooling package. So he was determined to get it back as quickly as possible.

The first six laps were run under the safety car (while the mess from the interlocking Yuki Tsunoda/Alex Albon wrecks was cleared). The following four laps were Sainz forcing Verstappen to use up his battery charge staying out of the Ferrari's DRS reach. That done, he pounced from a long way back into lap 9, taking Verstappen - irritated at the empty battery - by surprise.

"I didn't really prepare the move," said Sainz. "I knew I needed to surprise him as he is difficult to pass. I thought I was a bit too far back on the straight but then I was gaining fast in the last 100 metres..."


With the Red Bull battery giving Max no more help, Sainz, with DRS and full deployment just couldn’t resist. "I've been strong on the brakes into Turn 1 all weekend," he related, "so I knew I could do it."

It was a little ragged - he clanked over the Turn 1 apex kerb at an awkward angle and locked up the fronts into the left-hander in the stadium later in the lap - but he was through. Into the valuable clean air. That was the victory won.

On the next lap, Norris made his attack on the Red Bull into Turn 4, got ahead, got forced off, rejoined ahead, only for Verstappen's retaliation three corners later. That allowed Leclerc to pass them both, putting Ferrari 1-2. Just where they'd left off in the US.

With Leclerc spending virtually all of the second stint lifting and coasting, his efforts at reducing the gap to Sainz - which got him to within 1.6s by lap 17 and got Sainz complaining - were called off.

Norris rejoined on his hards five seconds behind Leclerc, with Sainz another eight up the road. On its favoured tyre and with its favoured wind direction, the McLaren was flying - and not as vulnerable as the Ferrari to cooking its brakes. With nine laps to go, trying to maximise his speed out of the final corner so as to give himself a chance against Norris, who was now in DRS range, Leclerc rescued a tank slapper at huge speed, and Norris was through.

All that was left for Leclerc was a second stop for a fresh set of tyres on which to take the race's fastest lap point. For Sainz, the last few laps were a little tense as he monitored his gap to the attacking McLaren but essentially it was under control.
https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/mark-hughes-verstappen-targeted-fouls-norris-mexican-gp/
 
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