Formula 1 - 2021 - Chasing down Lewis?
- Thread starter Chainsaw318
- Start date
It’s hard to call I ntil we see a good replay. Bottas clearly moved right. Was it justifiable that he was keeping the line, or did he jink Russell’s pass?
Hamilton did brightly with what was given to him, but fundamentally there’s a problem with the system as it stands. Everybody he passed had lapped him. He was given a reprieve. His mistake should have had a devastating consequence and instead it had literally none. It’s like spotting Michael Jordan 50 points to start the second half because he wasn’t there for the first.
It's an odd rule, but they let the lapped cars onto the lead lap during a couple races last year, too. Kept Russell from a top 10 one race.
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It’s the standard rule. It just needs to be done differently.
The argument is that if you had midfield battles and leading battles happening in the same place on a restart it would be chaos. I agree with that. They don’t need to sort the cars by having them undo the work the leaders put in. These are smart people- they can figure out a more equitable solution.
I've watched this a few times. Man I don't know who is to blame but I'm just glad neither was hurt. That was a true high speed incident.
I was going to make a joke about a red flag team orders but felt it would be in bad taste.
So, I didn't quite understand everything around the stop and restart yesterday. I understand stopping the race due to a major accident and necessary cleanup, but the restart confused me. I didn't quite pick up the whole unlapping thing that let Hamilton get back into the mix after his fuck up seemed to take him out of the race. Also, in instances like this, it seems like the gaps established through the first portion of the race are erased? They line up in the order they were running when the red flag came down and then off they go just like starting the race over? Is that correct?
(apologies for the newb questions)
(apologies for the newb questions)
You got it right. Under red flag, or safety car (not virtual safety car) the gaps will get compressed back to <1 sec. In red flag, they can (will?) unlap cars as well. Say cars 1-7 are on the first lap and 8-17 are down a lap, they brought 8-17 to the front in the pits to unlap so they would be directly behind 1-7 on the restart. I'm honestly not sure if there is leeway for the race control / stewards in doing this or if it's automatic with a red flag. (Or how they handle things like the Haas being 2 laps down, they didn't get double-unlapped, for example.)
There was some discussion on the broadcast, that was a bit subtle, about whether they would have a standing or rolling start after the red flag. They showed a couple camera shots of the track signal boards with "RS" (rolling start) rather than "SS" (standing start) and Martin Brundle did mention it was up to Michael Masi (race director). I feel like the last couple red flags we had (~2 years ago now?) were all standing restarts, but perhaps my memory is failing - I guess it was wet so they went with the rolling start.
F1 is different than most American motorsports in that it does the standing start to begin the race (and potentially again on a red flag restart).
The penalty for leading drivers and reward for the back markers under this system is absurd. It undoes a large portion of the race in a flash. Hamilton totally blew it, then was given a magical reprieve and the opportunity to finish ahead of everybody who didn't smash off their front wing in a gravel trap. His race through the field was impressive, but does anybody think he could have done it twice?
I don't have a great solution to offer at this point. By just restarting where you are, there would be a massive lottery involved. If you're in 10th, 1:15 down on a 1:17/lap circuit, you have your deficit eliminated. If you're a lap behind at 1:18, you cut a second off your deficit. You can't send them out a car at a time at their previous interval because, I'm told, of safety issues involved in having race cars racing on the track or something. Back markers and leaders duking it out on the same area of the track. Not sure how that's different from any other period of the race, however.
The virtual safety car is one of the nicer options for some situations, halting the field as it is. It obviously wouldn't have worked yesterday with a large area of track needing work. I just struggle with the idea that there's no way of maintaining the integrity of the race up to the point of an incident.
I don't have a great solution to offer at this point. By just restarting where you are, there would be a massive lottery involved. If you're in 10th, 1:15 down on a 1:17/lap circuit, you have your deficit eliminated. If you're a lap behind at 1:18, you cut a second off your deficit. You can't send them out a car at a time at their previous interval because, I'm told, of safety issues involved in having race cars racing on the track or something. Back markers and leaders duking it out on the same area of the track. Not sure how that's different from any other period of the race, however.
The virtual safety car is one of the nicer options for some situations, halting the field as it is. It obviously wouldn't have worked yesterday with a large area of track needing work. I just struggle with the idea that there's no way of maintaining the integrity of the race up to the point of an incident.
This is quite exciting, I think:
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/apr/26/f1-to-hold-three-sprint-qualifying-races-this-season
Seems like a no-brainer, doesn't it? More racing on the weekend, and a bit more unpredictability, but the cream should still rise to the top.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/apr/26/f1-to-hold-three-sprint-qualifying-races-this-season
Seems like a no-brainer, doesn't it? More racing on the weekend, and a bit more unpredictability, but the cream should still rise to the top.
I like the general concept (MORE RACING!!!). Admittedly, this does make viewing and spoilers a bit more challenging to manage with initial qualifying moving up.
I really feel like there's a law of unintended consequences gotcha just ready to bite this in the ass. I have no idea what it could be (Mazepin?), but I'm looking forward to the trial.
I really feel like there's a law of unintended consequences gotcha just ready to bite this in the ass. I have no idea what it could be (Mazepin?), but I'm looking forward to the trial.
Not sure if this is the right place for this, but Bobby Unser has passed.
One of my favorites during the glory days of Indy Car racing.
One of my favorites during the glory days of Indy Car racing.
Unser was just a head of my time, but I remember my Grandfather telling me about the 1981 Indy 500 and ending the story with something along the lines of how the result was stripped and re-awarded and it left such a sour taste in his mouth that we didn't want me to get into the crooked CART teams/management so instead we watched F1. RIP
Hamilton wins again after choosing a two pit strategy and charging in the second half of the race to shave off a 23 sec margin.
In the days leading up to the race, I kept hearing how this track is bad because it doesn't allow for overtakes and Hamilton basically passed by Verstappen almost immediately. Same with plenty of other drivers.
Other than that, I am starting to get the feeling that the Red Bulls are getting a bit demoralized because they are tantalizingly close, but the Mercs have that little extra oomph.
In the days leading up to the race, I kept hearing how this track is bad because it doesn't allow for overtakes and Hamilton basically passed by Verstappen almost immediately. Same with plenty of other drivers.
Other than that, I am starting to get the feeling that the Red Bulls are getting a bit demoralized because they are tantalizingly close, but the Mercs have that little extra oomph.
Mercedes have two cars on the track. Red Bull has one. It makes a huge difference.
Imagine if Perez were in any way a capable teammate, started fourth, and was available to back things up after the first stop. It’s a totally different race.
Imagine if Perez were in any way a capable teammate, started fourth, and was available to back things up after the first stop. It’s a totally different race.
I think Perez is good, but just needs time to get used to the car. I wasn't following up close the years before, but with all his troubles, he still seems like an upgrade over Albon and Gasly - at least the Red Bull version (Gasly seems to have improved after he left).
Red Bull have created a second driver problem by not properly replacing Ricciardo in the first place. The constant shuffling has put them in the position of either not having a capable driver or having a guy constantly acclimating to a tricky car. Meanwhile, they’re burning prime Verstappen years while the rest of us watch Hamilton win race after race.
All of the hype in preseason testing is just that, manufactured hype trying to get people to believe this isn’t going to be season 142 in a row of the Mercedes/Hamilton show. They sandbag in preseason to make it look close, and I would be willing to bet they have a second or more in hand even now - I highly doubt they are showing all their cards yet. Everyone else on the grid is fighting for 2nd on back, and I desperately hope that changes with the new formula next season.
Did we mention how Bottas got Jamesed, tried to defend against Hamilton and still got overtaken within half a lap? THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A TOUGH TRACK FOR OVERTAKES!
It's it self explanatory? By showing how slower each team's fastest lap is compared to the best team's fastest lap, it shows the relative pace of each car. Also it shows how Red Bull started off as the fastest car only to be overtaken by Mercedes; either way the difference between the Merc and the Red Bull is very small although other factors like the fact that the Mercs are kinder to their tires also play a role.
It's about as self-explanatory as the first sentence of your last post is. 
The subtitle makes no sense - "% off" should mean exactly that, the percentage off of the fastest overall lap, and therefore the numbers which read "100.0" in the chart should actually read "0.0", shouldn't they? (If the table had started there, I might feel like I had a better chance of interpreting it.) Also, lumping all times together "during weekend" [sic] means that qualifying and race times are being compared together, right? Feels like apples and oranges - and seems a bit of a data flaw. Only comparing the best single lap times limits the sample size of laps from a race weekend - any lap in which a car is held up by traffic on the course for whatever reason is automatically discounted, as are laps in which tire and fuel tank usage aren't optimal for gunning for your fastest lap. And does it really show the relative pace of each car, or does it show a combination of car pace and driver skill for each team?
Basically, that table is a masterclass in how not to present information in a compelling and relatable way. (And I haven't even started with the design of the graphic itself, with all of the numbers misaligned in each column serving as an impediment to rapidly processing the information.)
The subtitle makes no sense - "% off" should mean exactly that, the percentage off of the fastest overall lap, and therefore the numbers which read "100.0" in the chart should actually read "0.0", shouldn't they? (If the table had started there, I might feel like I had a better chance of interpreting it.) Also, lumping all times together "during weekend" [sic] means that qualifying and race times are being compared together, right? Feels like apples and oranges - and seems a bit of a data flaw. Only comparing the best single lap times limits the sample size of laps from a race weekend - any lap in which a car is held up by traffic on the course for whatever reason is automatically discounted, as are laps in which tire and fuel tank usage aren't optimal for gunning for your fastest lap. And does it really show the relative pace of each car, or does it show a combination of car pace and driver skill for each team? Basically, that table is a masterclass in how not to present information in a compelling and relatable way. (And I haven't even started with the design of the graphic itself, with all of the numbers misaligned in each column serving as an impediment to rapidly processing the information.)
I didn’t experience Schumacher, who I have heard tales of being a real “winning is everything” bastard, so maybe he’s the better comp, but Hamilton’s ability to beat his opponents in any fashion offered him and his mental toughness is reaching Jordan levels in my mind.
He’s more confident the past 3-4 years and it shows in a race like this one. In the Rosberg era, we would have heard a lot more radio from Lewis questioning and complaining that the strategy was maybe wrong. This race he just gets after it and hunts Max down, and Max is the one complaining on the radio about how inevitable the end is. Hamilton is a remarkable competitor.
I’m really most surprised by how competitive Ferrari is. I was hoping for another hilarious lost year from them, although, I do like Carlos Sainz. Ferrari/McLaren for 3rd in the constructors maybe the more fun battle that Mercedes/Red Bull.
He’s more confident the past 3-4 years and it shows in a race like this one. In the Rosberg era, we would have heard a lot more radio from Lewis questioning and complaining that the strategy was maybe wrong. This race he just gets after it and hunts Max down, and Max is the one complaining on the radio about how inevitable the end is. Hamilton is a remarkable competitor.
I’m really most surprised by how competitive Ferrari is. I was hoping for another hilarious lost year from them, although, I do like Carlos Sainz. Ferrari/McLaren for 3rd in the constructors maybe the more fun battle that Mercedes/Red Bull.
Hamilton just demoralizes everyone around him, its so beautiful to watch. Max has tantrums even up 23 seconds because he knows that's not even a bother for him. Even with the two stop Hamilton knew the tires were getting chewed up as the heat went up. Radio in that his tires will struggle, the engineer says well RB is fucked since Max will be trying to stretch it 40+ laps in increasingly hot asphalt and then Hamilton was just like oh yeah and Max was done. That Merc team is just a really well oiled machine. Maybe Bottas can sink it from within, but that's about the other teams only hope to overcome the Hamilton demolition machine.
Regarding Ferrari having another lol season, I think having Mattia in the mix for the 3/4 is a good thing, he's a fun principal almost as fun as Cyril. Leclerc is a fun driver, Sainz is okay. McLaren has a good pair of drivers, Danny Ric on his day is a great driver and Lando is Lando, I do think 3/4 could be a heck of a battle that I don't think 1/2 will be. I just don't see RB2 whether Albon or Perez as challenging Merc2 unless Bottas implodes.
That 5/6/7 mix will be interesting too. AlphaTauri has Gasly who really should have had another shot with RBR and Tsunoda who is...a loose cannon? I wish Alpine/Renault was a bit more competitive, Alonso may settle back in after the year away, his results have been improving and Ocon is a good character. Aston Martin with Vettel and Stroll could push those guys too.
Haas is such a dumpster fire that it makes Williams seem competent so that's something.
Fun season so far will make for an interesting DTS season.
Regarding Ferrari having another lol season, I think having Mattia in the mix for the 3/4 is a good thing, he's a fun principal almost as fun as Cyril. Leclerc is a fun driver, Sainz is okay. McLaren has a good pair of drivers, Danny Ric on his day is a great driver and Lando is Lando, I do think 3/4 could be a heck of a battle that I don't think 1/2 will be. I just don't see RB2 whether Albon or Perez as challenging Merc2 unless Bottas implodes.
That 5/6/7 mix will be interesting too. AlphaTauri has Gasly who really should have had another shot with RBR and Tsunoda who is...a loose cannon? I wish Alpine/Renault was a bit more competitive, Alonso may settle back in after the year away, his results have been improving and Ocon is a good character. Aston Martin with Vettel and Stroll could push those guys too.
Haas is such a dumpster fire that it makes Williams seem competent so that's something.
Fun season so far will make for an interesting DTS season.
The table alignment is terrible, for sure.It's about as self-explanatory as the first sentence of your last post is.
Basically, that table is a masterclass in how not to present information in a compelling and relatable way. (And I haven't even started with the design of the graphic itself, with all of the numbers misaligned in each column serving as an impediment to rapidly processing the information.)
But this metric is actually normal-ish for F1 - there is a "107% rule" that is sometimes talked about. If you can't set a time less than 107% of Q1's fastest time you in theory don't qualify for the race. Waivers are often, but not always, given. I remember it being more of an issue back in the beginning of my F1 fan-dom, 1999ish era (before the Q1/Q2/Q3 format it was just a mad dash at the end of the quali period and Minardi often got screwed by track evolution and their generally not-great cars).
The discounting of non-fast laps doesn't bother me, this is trying to show the max-potential of the car, which is different than race pace anyway - I doubt any of the truly fastest laps of a weekend are set at any time other than Q2 or Q3 because of fuel loads and tire deg. But, to your point, it's actually showing the combination of car+driver+*track* for each team. Not every car will do well on every track, especially if they bias toward high-speed or low-speed. It's actually what's amazing about M-B's dominance on almost all types of tracks in this era.
Thinking about it more, I agree that it's weird to offset all the data by 100 (basically compressing the dynamic range in the values, or forcing the reader to mentally renormalize the data a second time), but at least there is some domain-level basis for thinking in this way with the 107% rule. I feel like a lot of investing charts are done this way too ("price of commodity X on date Y = 100, graph shows normalized value")?
To me, yes the metric is imperfect, but how can it not be when you cannot truly separate car performance from driver performance? So, as you say, this metric shows the best case scenario of what each team's car+driver+ track can achieve.
May I also add that the results are pretty intuitive, as in the resulting order seems in line with what we have seen so far.
Either way, when CP posted his answer I did some googling to find out a bit more about the F1 metric that shows difference in car performance as a percentage lag from a baseline of a 100 because I had seen it before.
What I stumbled across however was an epic post by an F1 blog using a model that ranked the top 100 F1 drivers of all time which completely sidetracked me. The model tries to disentangle the car out of the equation mostly by measuring how each driver fared vs people who drove the same car and adjusting for age and experience; i.e. if you are in your first couple of seasons, the model expects lower performance and if the driver you are compared to is older than 35, your relative performance is discounted since the fellow driver is past his peak. The author makes the argument which should be true in every sport but is probably is even more true in an expensive sport like F1, that the quality of drivers has massively improved since the 50s since drivers now start training far earlier in a far more disciplined way.
I gotta say, I am a sucker for counter-intuitive models which go where the numbers lead them even if they give quite unexpected results. This is such a model, but it does test my predilection for those models in a big way. I still haven't come around to finishing the whole thing since it's rather long ( I am at #8 of the list), but I ll give you a taste. Nico Hulkemberg and Carlos Sainz are ranked higher than Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost. Not much higher. But still.
Worth a read though for sure.
https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2019/11/22/the-f1metrics-top-100/
Mazepin crashes out from 20th. If he’s in 5th that means 15 drivers are already out, it’s probably snowing, and the disappointment is more like realizing an expectation.
That McLaren livery does look snazzy.
It's weird with F1. Colors are one of the primary ways we bond with a sports org and most of the teams save Ferrari and Red Bull change theirs every few years.
It's weird with F1. Colors are one of the primary ways we bond with a sports org and most of the teams save Ferrari and Red Bull change theirs every few years.
Only a couple of hours? I copy/pasted the post on word and it's 38,000 words! Firefox says it's a breazy 210-270 min read!
PS. Please don't be deterred, it's interestign!
