Forbes: Sox on the verge of a contract extension with Chris Sale ($35/year)

Pitt the Elder

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I think there's a lot of biases here working against Sale in some of these perspectives. Recency bias, in that he missed a lot of time this past season. Confirmation bias, in that this confirms a narrative about him that his unorthodox delivery and slender frame portends a career altering injury at some point in the near future that will dramatically reduce his effectiveness, playing time, or both. This may happen, but I'm not sure there's much hard evidence other than speculative takes on his biomechanics that support that Sale is any riskier than the average pitcher.

Honest question to the group:. Who is more likely to throw 200+ innings next season, David Price or Chris Sale? In 4 years?

I'm not saying the Sox sign Sale to 7x35, but you could make a valid argument that he is easily worth something like 5x35.
 

Harry Hooper

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Given that Dr. Andrews has said Price has a self-healing calcification in his elbow ligament that the Dr. has only seen previously in Nolan Ryan, I'd say Price is the more likely bet than Sale to throw 200 innings in the coming seasons.
 

DirtyWater90

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Given that Dr. Andrews has said Price has a self-healing calcification in his elbow ligament that the Dr. has only seen previously in Nolan Ryan, I'd say Price is the more likely bet than Sale to throw 200 innings in the coming seasons.
Let's be honest, neither are likely to throw 200 innings, because even if both are completely healthy and don't miss a start all year, they aren't likely to get there on an Alex Cora team. We didn't have a single starter throw 200 innings last year, even Porcello who didn't miss a start and is customarily a 200 inning guy.
 

jon abbey

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It's not just Cora, it's all of MLB. Last year there were only 13 pitchers in all of MLB to hit 200 innings, and only 6 made it to 205.
 

DirtyWater90

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It's not just Cora, it's all of MLB. Last year there were only 13 pitchers in all of MLB to hit 200 innings, and only 6 made it to 205.
This is true, it is an MLB wide change, which is why that ERA (and all rate stats) qualifier needs to change to reflect these times. Last year saw a record for fewest pitchers to qualify for that. At any rate, Sale said his biggest personal goal this year was pitching 200 innings and making 30+ starts, those are the only two stats he cares about besides wins and missing a quarter of the season last year really bothers him. If he's healthy all year, he'll more than likely fall in the 190ish range.
 

Pitt the Elder

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Let's be honest, neither are likely to throw 200 innings, because even if both are completely healthy and don't miss a start all year, they aren't likely to get there on an Alex Cora team. We didn't have a single starter throw 200 innings last year, even Porcello who didn't miss a start and is customarily a 200 inning guy.
Sorry, I was using the 200 ip threshold as a proxy for a healthy season. What I should have asked is - who's more likely to miss meaningful time due to injury?
 

Sampo Gida

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That would be unfortunate if true. Sale may very well be a very good pitcher for 7 more years but we may have seen his best days. 93 Sale is probably not 97 Sale. Hope an extension gets done but not at 35 per year. You cant ignore how he finished last year. That uncertainty has to factor into any offer

Also one has to consider possible salary deflation. There seems to be a downward trend in top FA salaries that may or may not persist. It may well be that in the next CBA players push for more money to younger players that will suppress FA prices further . One can’t assume 35 million will only be worth 25 million in 2019 dollars in 7 years
 

DirtyWater90

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That would be unfortunate if true. Sale may very well be a very good pitcher for 7 more years but we may have seen his best days. 93 Sale is probably not 97 Sale. Hope an extension gets done but not at 35 per year. You cant ignore how he finished last year. That uncertainty has to factor into any offer

Also one has to consider possible salary deflation. There seems to be a downward trend in top FA salaries that may or may not persist. It may well be that in the next CBA players push for more money to younger players that will suppress FA prices further . One can’t assume 35 million will only be worth 25 million in 2019 dollars in 7 years
I think it's safe to assume that there won't be salary deflation, unless there's also revenue delation. The league made over $10 BILLION last year, and despite the billionaire owners often crying poverty, every single one of them made tons of money. The players are going to rightfully want their fair share of that revenue.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Theres no way this is under what Price is making. But...would be cool if he did haha
 

Murderer's Crow

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Going 5/160 as my guess. First shoe in the string of Sox extensions.
This might be right but I'm curious why a 29 year old would agree to only a 5 year contract extension. Sure, free agency is a gamble, but if he has another Chris Sale year, he's looking at Kershaw/Greinke money, no?
 

E5 Yaz

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This might be right but I'm curious why a 29 year old would agree to only a 5 year contract extension. Sure, free agency is a gamble, but if he has another Chris Sale year, he's looking at Kershaw/Greinke money, no?
Nah, that's what he'd get the Yankees to overpay
 

Plympton91

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This is a classic asymmetric information dilemma. The person who knows the most about Chris Sale’s Shoulder heAlth is Chris Sale. If he’s willing to sign an extension, that could be.because he’s more worried about his shoulder than the Red Sox have figured out they should be. It’s if he’s not willing to sign an extension, then the Red Sox should be more interested than otherwise.
 

Murderer's Crow

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How do these extensions work w/ regard to AAV? Do they replace the first year and average across the whole term or is current AAV for LT unchanged?
 

pokey_reese

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Jeff Passan: Sale contract will be in the range of 5 years/$150 million. I'd say that's below-market. Great deal for Sox.
If that's true, that's not too bad. I have to assume that Sale knows his body better than anyone, and is being realistic in pricing that into his expectations. He has to realize that the odds of him getting hurt or having some kind of red flag eventually show up in a scan has the potential to cost him a lot more than whatever he leaves on the table in this deal. $150 million is close enough to the ceiling of his value to make it totally worth protecting against any downside risk of waiting another year.
 

moondog80

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Jeff Passan: Sale contract will be in the range of 5 years/$150 million. I'd say that's below-market. Great deal for Sox.
I’m on record as being against an extension due to the risk, but this would be at least close to acceptable.
 

soxhop411

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If that's true, that's not too bad. I have to assume that Sale knows his body better than anyone, and is being realistic in pricing that into his expectations. He has to realize that the odds of him getting hurt or having some kind of red flag eventually show up in a scan has the potential to cost him a lot more than whatever he leaves on the table in this deal. $150 million is close enough to the ceiling of his value to make it totally worth protecting against any downside risk of waiting another year.
Sale has said that money isn’t everything.

From the globe
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/03/06/for-chris-sale-money-isn-everything-when-comes-contract-negotiations/Yal7KXZEjWrXh1UMWChDBK/story.html

Edit: also from the athletic
https://theathletic.com/816689/2019/02/13/craig-kimbrels-crazy-situation-lingering-on-free-agent-market-has-chris-sale-confused/
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Sale knows more about how his arm and shoulder feel than anyone else, but doctors who actually look at imaging know more about his actual arm and shoulder health than he does. By a lot. If they're comfortable, I'm comfortable and this is a great deal. Maybe, just maybe, not every player feels the need to have the biggest contract of all time.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Is there a possibility that this new deal, assuming it exists, replaces the last year of Sale's current contract or will Sale be under contract for 6 more years (finishing this year and then starting the 5 year extension in 2020)?
 

Ed Hillel

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Thats an absolute steal. I doubt thats true
With his injury history, I’d say it’s very fair for both sides.

This is definitely a risky deal, but pitchers like Sale don’t grow on trees and we’re not getting anything over age 35. I’m definitely content.
 

JimD

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As I was saying . . . If Sale is willing to take below market value, then I’d be even more concerned about the health of his shoulder than I was yesterday.
I'm giving the FO the benefit of the doubt here that they have done their homework and there are no major medical red flags.

If this deal as reported is true, I love it. It doesn't surprise me at all that Sale knows what a great situation he is in here after years in White Sox purgatory.
 

nattysez

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I'll be curious to see if there are any Lackey-style injury provisions in the deal. It may be that that's the price you pay for the "low" value -- no protection v. injury, but you also don't have to pay him $40m/year.
 

BoSox Rule

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My guess his Sale’s tax hit this year is now $27.25m. 13.5 million this year then add $150/5 comes to 163.5/6.
 

Van Everyman

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There's actually an opt-out after June and every month subsequently for the next two years.

I think they want Sale and Price anchoring this rotation for awhile. I think they see both these guys as horses you can lean on -- but also difference-makers when it comes to team culture. Hard to believe after Price's 2017 ...
 

shaggydog2000

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I’m on record as being against an extension due to the risk, but this would be at least close to acceptable.
There is always a number/time period that would be attractive though, right? I don't like long term contracts for pitchers, but 5 at 150 is such a good bargain I don't think I'd say no. It's like me saying you couldn't pay me enough to live in Cleveland. There is a number, but it's more than I think I'd ever be offered. But...
 

BornToRun

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5/150 is a steal if that’s what it ends up being. Could you imagine that getting it done back when he was first acquired?
 

joe dokes

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With his injury history, I’d say it’s very fair for both sides.

This is definitely a risky deal, but pitchers like Sale don’t grow on trees and we’re not getting anything over age 35. I’m definitely content.
Content and fair are the perfect words here. Nothing is ever going to placate fans who think that the only "good" deal (whether trade or contract) is the one where one party to the deal is robbed and humiliated.
 

chawson

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Anyone seeing if it’s a five-year extension (through 2024) or a new five-year contract replacing his 2019 terms (through 2023)?
 

mauidano

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Is it possible that sometimes even against the "best advice" of an agent that a player says "I'm good with this. I want to play the rest of my career for this city and organization. I have more money than my great grandchildren will ever be able to burn through."? Maybe Sale as he has insinuated just wants to play baseball and that the money will take care of itself.

I think Pedroia said basically the same thing as that when he signed his contract four years ago.
 

edoug

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Is it possible that sometimes even against the "best advice" of an agent that a player says "I'm good with this. I want to play the rest of my career for this city and organization. I have more money than my great grandchildren will ever be able to burn through."? Maybe Sale as he has insinuated just wants to play baseball and that the money will take care of itself.

I think Pedroia said basically the same thing as that when he signed his contract four years ago.
He's comfortable here. We all know how important comfort is to him.
 
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BigSoxFan

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So, next year you've got Sale/Price/Eovaldi/ERod as your rotation foundation with the hope that you can adequately replace Porcello with someone cheap like Hernandez. Really need a cheap starter to help balance out the top heavy rotation. Would be helpful if Groome pans out by 2021 or so.
 

moondog80

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So, next year you've got Sale/Price/Eovaldi/ERod as your rotation foundation with the hope that you can adequately replace Porcello with someone cheap like Hernandez. Really need a cheap starter to help balance out the top heavy rotation. Would be helpful if Groome pans out by 2021 or so.
It seems like every year they will be able to pick up a Gio Gonzalez or Drew Pomeranz type for 3 mil or so, just have it be a rotating cast of characters.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Perhaps Sale values winning, comfort, and a well-run organization over top dollar.

Shocking to some, I know.