Betts is / was a huge loss. It’s not debatable.
But where are the Sox if that “core” was locked down? Are they in better shape than TB, Toronto or Orioles? Better shape than the Mets or Padres? Please advise.
Following Former Red Sox 2023
- Thread starter Lose Remerswaal
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But where are the Sox if that “core” was locked down? Are they in better shape than TB, Toronto or Orioles? Better shape than the Mets or Padres? Please advise.
ZING!
WTF is your point? Last place sucks. Why are we even having this debate?
Being a fan doesn't mean you have to go full LEGO Movie and keep repeating that everything is awesome. The Sox are in last place. Again. Despite watching every pitch this season, the front office still doesn't know whether they should stay, lay or pray. The only thing that they can agree on is that "the future is going to be better", which if the recent past is any indicator, I'm not going to give them the benefit of the doubt on.
The three things that I was really interested in seeing (Bello, Casas and Yoshida) all look really good. I'm glad about that, it's a glimmer of hope. Everything else? Sorta sucks. It's a team that's punching well above it's weight and it's still a game below a Yankees team that hasn't been this bad in a generation. I mean, we've all been saying that the Yanks are circling the drain and we're even worse. Again, Bloom has put the team in a bad position to contend and is mystified at what to do next.
Why do I owe you any advice? You seem to feel much more strongly about this than anyone else, so I don't see how/why I should attempt to change hour mind. Neither of us know what other pieces fall were they might had we kept him.
He was a class act who raked and played solid defense. I was sad when we lost him. Still wish we had him. Move along.
Well, they're not in better shape than TB, Toronto, the Orioles (and arguably the Padres, who are mostly getting hit by bad cluster luck this year and will likely be WS contenders again next year) right now so. . . yay?
Especially when they're not. (If you're going to get hypertechnical about "last place" then you may as well get hypertechnical about tiebreakers).
You're right. None. It accurately and fairly encapsulates the season they've had.
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I’ve already deleted my comment. I’m not having the same conversation with you over and over again.
I do have a question, and if you dont want to answer and go down that road I get it...just a few weeks ago sox were 42-42 and in last place, while the twins were 42-42 but in first place. Would you feel any better about your larger view on the state of the team if we were in first place with same record and same run differential (which at the time was +12)? Obviously the team itself would be better positioned as they'd be in line for a playoff spot...but ability & the product they are putting on the field would be the exact same. I really hope this isnt coming across as some kind of 'gotcha' question. It's coming from a genuine place where I'm trying to better understand your outlook.
Even better. He is playing Gold-Glove level defense at both IF and OF in the same season and this shouldn't be news to the team that drafted him.
This is an interesting question and I think it's sincere. I think that the Twins and the Sox are two completely different teams. I think that at that time the Twins were underachieving and I think that the Red Sox were (and still are) overachieving. If I were a Twins fan, I would expect the Twins would probably start playing better. Eventually. And if they didn't and underachieved for the entire season and ended up being a second place team (but out of the playoffs), then I would be bummed out (I originally had the word upset here and It think that's too strong of a word).
The other thing is that with the AL Central, you can kind of fuck around all year and still win the division. The Sox don't have that luxury and I think that you need to have your ML team loaded for bear even before the season starts. You can't depend on Trevor Story manning shortstop when you know his arm is gacked (even before his January injury). You can't expect James Paxton AND Chris Sale to make 25 starts apiece. You can't expect that Yoshida is going to be a superstar right out of the gate. Some of that stuff will happen. But all of it? That's a foundation built on sand and the Red Sox should be better than that. They have been for the better part of 20 years.
But there's also some baggage here too. I don't like the Red Sox FO philosophy (I absolutely abhor the Rays' FO philosophy and have for over a decade now for a multitude of reasons, though I completely understand why they need to do it) and I'd say three* of the last four years, the Sox' philosophy on constructing a major league roster hasn't really worked. I don't think that bottoming out to get good again is necessarily a good strategy for anyone other than the owner of the club and I've sat through a lot of shit baseball. The only good thing is that I've been able to get good seats relatively cheap. So when I see a Red Sox roster made up of dumpster dives, one-year contracts and the like; I know that from years of watching baseball that everything needs to fit exactly as planned in order for them to have a good season. Like almost nothing can go wrong (see 1995 or 2013). I said it back in March that the Sox had a really thin wire to walk on if they were going to be good and I don't think that they're going to do it **.
That's really frustrating. The high marks in Baseball America or any other prospect list does absolutely nothing for me. You can go through all of the years of predictions and there are more misses than hits (remember when Song and Ward were going to anchor our staff for the rest of the 20s? Now people don't give AF that the Sox lost them for nothing). So the thought that the Red Sox are going to be some super team in 2025 or 26 is not really comforting to me. Because again, a lot of things need to happen in order for that to occur. And even if it does occur and the Sox are good in 25 or 26, there's still next year and the year after of bad (actually probably mediocre) baseball to be played.
* They might not end up in last place this year, but they're there right now.
** I will say that they're probably going to blow by my prediction of 78 wins, so that's cool.
The Red Sox are not currently in last place. The Yankees are by virtue of their 1-5 head to head record against the Red Sox. Playing tiebreaker games is no longer a thing.
Edit: To add onto this a bit, the Red Sox also have won the season series already against Toronto and have a 2-1 lead against Texas. All 7 games against the Astros will come in the middle of next month. Having the upper hand in all the tiebreakers will be helpful in a bunched-up three wild card league.
Edit: To add onto this a bit, the Red Sox also have won the season series already against Toronto and have a 2-1 lead against Texas. All 7 games against the Astros will come in the middle of next month. Having the upper hand in all the tiebreakers will be helpful in a bunched-up three wild card league.
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Thanks for the thoughtful response, I might not agree with all of it*...but it definitely helps to better understand your perspective. Appreciate it.
*this work day sucked. I dont have it in me to actually respond in kind right now, but my guess is based on previous convos you know a bit about the context where I'm coming from.
How dare you! I was a hopeful child, but events up to and including Games 1-3 of the 2004 ALCS scarred me deeply. (As I'm sure is true of many here.) I just meant that as a statement of gratitude and continued support for our deliverers.
Whenever people start griping about the current ownership, I'm reminded of that scene in The Ten Commandments in which God raises a pillar of fire in the desert, freaking flaming tornado, to stop Pharoah's troop from reaching the Hebrews, and Dathan (Edward G. Robinson) goes, "Sure, Moses's god sends a pillar of fire, but how long will it last?"
And the Israelites start fretting, "Yes, Moses, how long will it last?"
At which point, Moses turns to the water, raises his staff, and God parts the Red Sea.
The point is that we've seen miracles and have been delivered. Just keep faith, and trust that more is coming.
A conversation on the Guardians broadcast started out on the topic of players using teammates' bats... ended up talking about how Manny Ramirez used to wear other people's pants.
Mookie threw Kiermaier out at home to keep the Jays off the board in the 10th. Reminds me of him gunning K down at third several years ago. I'll never get tired of Mookie hosing Kiermaier!
(Sorry I've got no video to embed.)
(Sorry I've got no video to embed.)
Welp, for context, the Sox are 1.5 games out of the wild card a day after beating the best team in baseball. So, yeah, things could be worse.
But moving on - Mookie is good and is still fun to follow.
This is the part that I think needs to be unpacked. The Rays system works. Very well. It's the best way to build a consistent winner. & it works great when you have money, too.
The Rays run the Rays system. They've made the playoffs 4 years in a row. Peter Bendix has been there 15 years.
The Dodgers run the Rays system. They've made the playoffs 10 years in a row. Andrew Friedman invented it.
The Braves run the Rays system. They've made the playoffs 5 years in a row. Alex Anthopolous worked for Andrew Friedman.
The thing is, though, you have to be patient to allow the system to work. It's unclear what in the history of this irrational abhorrence is and I don't plan to speculate, but I think it's really negatively impacting your enjoyment of the team & it's future.
They are Moy
They just swept thr Braves and have gone 16 and 5. They also are a game out of the wildcard. I'd say things are going pretty positive but you come in here with all your negativity. If you looked at the standings; the Yankees are in last place at the moment. Tampa has gone 5 and 16 this month so you just never know. The Red Sox might struggle against the Giants on the road trip. The season is a long struggle but most people can do without your constant negativity
This season with the development of Bello; Casas, Wong, Yoshida has been a pleasant surprise. I'm sorry you cannot enjoy it.
I think that the Rays' system works well over 162 games--and I'm talking solely about the Rays here, because I think that the Braves and Dodgers run a hybrid version of the Rays system in which they use some of their philosophy but augment it with a steady influx of cash that each team has by being a big market team. It reminds me of how innovative the Red Sox were back in the 00s when they ran a hybrid Moneyball system and augmented that with cash. You mention that in your last line, almost as a throw-away, but I think it's the most important part of how consistent contention* can turn into consistent winning.
* I think that this is a good debate, BTW: how do you define consistent winning? Is it winning every World Series that you're in? Is it getting to the World Series two out of every five years? Is it just making the playoffs x amount of years in a row? I have my opinion on what that nebulous phrase means and it sounds like it's different from yours. But neither one is "wrong".
I think the latter part of this equation "augmented with cash" is why the Ray's Way, or Moneyball v2.0, is usually destined to fail in the postseason. Mainly because, like most sports, good players tend to win games and mediocre or bad players on good streaks, don't. The Rays, like the A's, need to do what they can with their shoestring budgets and that means constant roster churn with their AAA team, dumpster diving and making sure that draft picks hit every single time. Once these players become stars, they're usually gone. That works in a June game against the Guardians when you can bring up a hard thrower, let him throw lights out for three weeks, and send him back to AAA when he regresses. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
You can't do that in the postseason, which is why the Rays (and teams like them) don't normally win. I mean the Braves are stacked. The Dodgers are stacked. Are the Rays stacked? Have they ever been? Aside from Wander and Arozarena, do they have any true stars like on the Mookie or Freeman or Acuna or Olson levels?
On a fan level, I find the Rays' visually repugnant. Unlike football and soccer that play once a week or hoops and hockey that play a couple games a week, baseball is played every day. As such I find that I grow attached to certain players (it does zero good to list those players because I'm not going down that rat hole again, but I think you know who I mean) and when they leave due to money, it sucks. And when the team, who can afford them (again, let's leave this in the abstract right now because FSG is worth $7 billion, they theoretically and realistically can afford whomever they want, they choose not to -- which may not be fine, but I understand it from a business perspective), loses them it sucks. To compound that when they start dumpster diving, signing players to one-year deals (who we all know aren't going to be here next year, so why get too invested), do the whole roster churn with their bullpen, use two openers per rotation in a race for the postseason, to me, that's not fun*. It doesn't seem to me that management and ownership are all in on this team. So why should I be?
* Which is incongruous because since the A's series, the Red Sox have been fun.
To me, the Rays' way is an arm's length approach to building a baseball team. Like they're trying to have their cake and eat it too. In other words, if they win they can boast about how they found some way to win amongst the titans of the league and that they're the little engine that could or they're David amongst four Goliaths -- use any cliche you want. And if they lose it's like, well, we're Tampa Bay, of course we're supposed to lose. They never seem to give their best effort and take a leap once in awhile.
I wrote about this in the Deadline thread that yeah, Moreno and the Angels' FO are probably making a dumb move in their trade with the White Sox. And he's not a good guy, nor would I really want him as the owner of the Red Sox, but damn, I like when people go against the odds once in awhile and tells their team that they believe in them and just go for it. I guess it's the passion. The Rays' way seems passionless and is really about as fun as watching someone do your taxes. There is no judgement here, because I can see how people would dig that. Not only does your team win, but they do it a little better than other teams. They get style and difficulty points because of who they are. I get that. But I don't give a shit about that. I want the Red Sox to bully every one, constantly get the best players, constantly be in the mix for stars and kick ass (like they did in the 00s and the late teens).
That's fun. Efficiency, cost savings, great ROI? I'm cool with not thinking about that when it comes to the ball club that I follow. Whether that's right or wrong, YMMV.
I agree, the Red Sox are Moy!
Do you really think we're running this like the Rays & not like the Dodgers & Braves, though? I know some people had doubts about this, but I think to some extent the Devers contract should have put that to rest.
Until the infrastructure is in place to really augment & compete, though, you do end up having to do more of those small-scale Rays creative things - if your goal is sustainability, which I think it should be.
I think starting in '24 & every year after you will have a team that would be enjoyable to watch with the systemic depth to make the playoffs year over year, & the star power to give them a chance to make a run every year. I think that's all one can really ask for.
& yeah, the last few years may not have been everything one could hope for, but they did not sacrifice the long term goal for a short-term bump when they weren't ready.
It is amazing what the Rays have done with such a small budget...& for our sake it's a good thing they can't/won't increase it.
To answer your first question, I don't know. I really think that if Bloom had his druthers he wouldn't have signed Devers but was pressured into doing by upper, upper management. That's just my opinion though and I can't not give him credit for doing it. I'm glad that Devers is going to be here for the foreseeable future though.
I know that the Red Sox FO talks about sustainability as if they're the first ones to figure it out, but it's been a part of baseball since Branch Rickey came up with the concept of the minor leagues. I think that every team wants a true sustainable system where young cheaper players are constantly replacing older more expensive players. Not only does it make financial sense, but it also makes competitive sense. In rare occasions will an outfielder or pitcher at 35 be better than a similar player at 25. Again, what I found frustrating about the 2019 breakup is that the Sox did have younger every day players (I think all except 1B and 2B were under 28 -- I may be wrong about that, but at the very least they were on the good side of 30) that they mostly got rid of because they were due to get big raises.
How do we know that they won't do the same thing again in 2031* or whenever?
* Wondering what will happen in seven years is stupid, I know. But the point mostly is, if this FO did this once, why won't they do it twice? And if they do it twice, what's the point of following a team and getting invested if they're going to pull the rug from out you? IDK maybe we won't even be here in seven years.
And I understand what you're saying about the minor league system, in the abstract, it looks really good. My concern is about putting too many eggs in that basket. Since the 70s any time the Sox have had real success with a mostly homegrown lineup is twice: the mid-70s and the teens. For a ton of reasons, prospects turn into suspects really quickly and it doesn't happen quite as often as we want. I know that I'm starting to get a reputation as a bit of pessimistic dick, but the reality is that in the last 50 years, it doesn't happen a bunch. As far as a mostly homegrown starting staff, the only time I can think of (and I'm doing this all off the top of my head) is in the mid 80s when the Sox ran out Clemens, Hurst, Boyd, Nipper and Ojeda or Tudor (before the latter two were traded). They made a World Series one of those years, but I forgot what happened after Game 5.
I think that I've been pretty consistent in my thinking of the last few years is that I just want a fun Red Sox team to follow. I'm starting to turn a little bit on this team in that the last few games have been exciting and cool and they won. That's great. In much the same way I've had to separate art from artists I don't like, I'm probably going to have to do that with Bloom, Kennedy and the like.
According to Cleveland Guardians social media, their win yesterday moved Francona past Casey Stengel and into 13th place in all-time managerial wins. Granted, I can't find a source that agrees with that, because they all have Stengel at 1,905 wins instead of 1,926, which would mean Francona has held that ranking since June 15th. Regardless, it made me look at that list and realize that everyone who ranks ahead of #15 Gene Mauch is either in the Hall of Fame or still managing.
Kyle Schwarber is hitting 184/326/429, good for a -0.9 WAR. 27 homers.
He’s on pace for more walks (120) and K’s (212) then hits (109).
He’s basically become Joey Gallo, but with terrible defense.
(Another guy on this career path- Patrick Wisdom, sporting a really weird 199/296/505 line. 19 HR and 38 RBI.)
He’s on pace for more walks (120) and K’s (212) then hits (109).
He’s basically become Joey Gallo, but with terrible defense.
(Another guy on this career path- Patrick Wisdom, sporting a really weird 199/296/505 line. 19 HR and 38 RBI.)
Actual Joey Gallo has probably been just as bad since his very hot April, his defense is not what it used to be and his slash line since April 29 is .153/.269/.350, 28-183 with 27 BBs and a .619 OPS. 28-183!!
I’m no stats guy, but seems like there’s been a return to sub .220 35+ homer guys that were common in the ‘80s. 4 of the top ten guys in home runs are .220 or under.
Good point. Muncy is certainly another- 193/327/479. Alonso too, although his average seems abnormally low for him (.218).
There are only 5 players with 20+ homers and an average of .280 or better. Ohtani, Mookie, Acuna, Freeman, and Judge.
Michael Wacha improved to 9-2 last night for the Padres.
After having a BABIP of .260 last year in Boston, which was much lower than his previous career numbers, everyone expected him to regress significantly this year, myself included (ERA of 3.32 vs FIP of 4.14 last year). Somehow he's managed to lower his BABIP to .250 this year and thus his ERA is 2.68 vs an FIP of 3.66.
Whatever adjustment he's making, it's working.
After having a BABIP of .260 last year in Boston, which was much lower than his previous career numbers, everyone expected him to regress significantly this year, myself included (ERA of 3.32 vs FIP of 4.14 last year). Somehow he's managed to lower his BABIP to .250 this year and thus his ERA is 2.68 vs an FIP of 3.66.
Whatever adjustment he's making, it's working.
DO and his partner were saying in the broadcast that the Padres were pleasntly surprised that Wacha was available that late into the FA period.
A couple of different items under the category of former Red Sox and Indians players...
• Manny Ramirez will be inducted into the Guardians Hall of Fame in a ceremony preceding tonight's game.
• I'm seeing on social media that Alex Cole has passed away.
Cole was an absolute phenomenon when he exploded on the scene in 1990. He arrived midseason, completely unheralded – just acquired a month earlier for AAAA catcher Tom Lampkin – but immediately became the real-life Willie Mays Hayes. The 24-year-old goggled sprinter batted .300 in 63 games and stole 40 bases. We were all thinking he was a threat for 100 steals going into 1991, but he basically became the mascot of one of Cleveland's worst teams of all time that year on their way to 105 losses. Cole still batted .295 with an impressive .386 OBP for someone with no pop, but he was completely clueless on the basepaths. He only stole 27 bases and was thrown out 17 times. I don't know how many times he was picked off, but I'm guessing if added to those numbers, he barely had a 50% success rate when he ventured off first base.
The following winter, Cleveland traded another backup catcher, acquiring a former college basketball player named Kenny Lofton, and Cole was no longer part of their plans. He began the 1992 season batting just .206 through 97 at-bats and was traded to the Pirates for a couple of minor leaguers who never panned out. I remember he was arrested on drug charges about a decade later and my immediately thought was, "Huh, I would have guessed caught stealing".
• Manny Ramirez will be inducted into the Guardians Hall of Fame in a ceremony preceding tonight's game.
• I'm seeing on social media that Alex Cole has passed away.
Cole was an absolute phenomenon when he exploded on the scene in 1990. He arrived midseason, completely unheralded – just acquired a month earlier for AAAA catcher Tom Lampkin – but immediately became the real-life Willie Mays Hayes. The 24-year-old goggled sprinter batted .300 in 63 games and stole 40 bases. We were all thinking he was a threat for 100 steals going into 1991, but he basically became the mascot of one of Cleveland's worst teams of all time that year on their way to 105 losses. Cole still batted .295 with an impressive .386 OBP for someone with no pop, but he was completely clueless on the basepaths. He only stole 27 bases and was thrown out 17 times. I don't know how many times he was picked off, but I'm guessing if added to those numbers, he barely had a 50% success rate when he ventured off first base.
The following winter, Cleveland traded another backup catcher, acquiring a former college basketball player named Kenny Lofton, and Cole was no longer part of their plans. He began the 1992 season batting just .206 through 97 at-bats and was traded to the Pirates for a couple of minor leaguers who never panned out. I remember he was arrested on drug charges about a decade later and my immediately thought was, "Huh, I would have guessed caught stealing".
After Cole arrived in Cleveland, I recall that during the offseason, the team moved back the outfield fences at Cleveland Stadium, hoping to take advantage of his speed.