Following Former Red Sox: 2015
- Thread starter Lose Remerswaal
- Start date
At least Clay had one good game. Lester is making Ben look very smart right now.Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
Lester didn't just throw one away......he sailed it 15 feet over the head of his first baseman.chrisfont9 said:
This guy could conceivably be completely finished! The Blass/Sax/Knoublaugh/Young/Bard disease isn't something that players overcome once it reaches a certain level. Lester may be approaching THAT level.
HomeRunBaker said:
He didn't walk anyone. Not throwing to first well won't end the guy's career.
What I don't get is why it took 2 years for this to catch up to him. We're supposed to be in a modern data-driven era with sophisticated advanced scouting of player tendencies. If you'd have asked me before the Grantland piece how long it would take for a pitcher to go without throwing a pickoff attempt before other teams pick up on it, I'd have guessed about 5 or 10 starts.
Small sample of what? Lester didn't attempt a single kickoff throw last season, word is that the Sox spent time in ST trying to work with him on his problems and now that we are being made aware of his issues looking back be always ran to first with comebackers prior to giving Napoli a little underhanded flip. This is far more than a small sample.....he's just been exposed by the NL style of play.wade boggs chicken dinner said:
HomeRunBaker said:
Actually, Lester didn't attempt a single pickoff throw after April 30, 2013, so it's basically been two years.
But it's remarkable that you could use the words "conceivably finished" after two starts - well, one, since the pickoff thing didn't come up for his first start. I mean the Red Sox in 2011 basically ignored the running game (particularly when Varitek was catching) and they still managed to win a few games. Sure it will cost him in some statistical categories, but my best guess is that he develops something serviceable and then goes out and tries to prevent runners from getting on base.
And even if he doesn't, the Cubs kind of have to trot him out there every fifth day for the next few years at least and Lester will still be better than many of the pitchers that teams are running out there.
edit: saw this thing on Grantland that attempts to quantify what it would mean to Lester based on using some baseball simulation games like Diamond Mind. Understand that this isn't very scientific but I thought was a good read.
I say could be finished because I don't know of a single player who has successfully recovered from "the yips" or "Steve Blass Disease and his next start is going to be watched by everyone. If he takes another step toward the full fledged SBD he would have to overcome what nobody else has.....oh and he's got a $160m contract too.
Blass, Sax, Knoblauch, Ankiel, Bard, Matt Young, Sasser.....I'm sure there are more. Yes I stand by there is a good chance he's finished as an effective pitcher or even maybe a ML pitcher. His next start will speak volumes.
Blass, Sax, Knoblauch, Ankiel, Bard, Matt Young, Sasser.....I'm sure there are more. Yes I stand by there is a good chance he's finished as an effective pitcher or even maybe a ML pitcher. His next start will speak volumes.
HomeRunBaker said:
Yeah...except, again, he didn't walk (or in Bard's case, almost concuss) anyone. This is not the typical "yips" where the pitcher completely loses all semblance of control, it's just a small part of the game he's bad at.
If he can still throw the ball over the plate, his career isn't over.
I imagine he just needs to develop a different way of throwing over there; maybe a step back and sidearm flip or something. And he can vary the amount of time he holds the ball, slide step, and other stuff to try to limit the number of times someone steals second.
Suppose he gives up 50 extra steals of second on the season due to an inability to hold runners; what's the expected run value of that if they're equally distributed across 0, 1, and 2 outs and how does that translate to ERA?
Suppose he gives up 50 extra steals of second on the season due to an inability to hold runners; what's the expected run value of that if they're equally distributed across 0, 1, and 2 outs and how does that translate to ERA?
We're talking about the guy who managed to have a career year last year without once throwing over to 1B, right? Yeah his career is toast because of this one minor little hiccup. Holy shit.HomeRunBaker said:
And didn't that wild throw to first still result in getting the runner out (at third)? Success.
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
Plympton91 said:
Go read the Grantland article that's been linked-to twice now. They estimate the impact to his overall stats by using a pretty well-designed set of simulations.
edit: cliff notes are as follows
- Using 4 other non-Diamond-Mind simulators, relative to a baseline average pickoff game for a lefty, Lester's average expected ERA +0.64, steals allowed +21.
- Using Diamond Mind and 500 simulated seasons, ERA +0.76, steals allowed +14
- This takes into account the increased likelihood of runners going 1st-to-3rd on a single, scoring on a long double, etc
Reymond Fuentes, former first-round pick and piece of the Adrian Gonzalez trade, just got called up for the first time. https://twitter.com/Royals/status/589117146304622595
Plympton91 said:
I thought his response was more than fair given the dickishness of the original shot at him.
Jose Iglesias had a heck of a play last night to nail Gardner. I miss that glove.
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/11493214/v82117383/must-c-clips-jose-iglesias-great-play-and-throw
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/11493214/v82117383/must-c-clips-jose-iglesias-great-play-and-throw
@MattHuegelSP: Ouch, Allen Webster has allowed 15 ER over 2 starts in Triple-A for Diamondbacks, 5 BB/5 K. PCL is tough, but only 1 HR allowed of 17 hits.
And then
@nickpiecoro: RHP Allen Webster placed on the Triple-A Reno disabled list with shoulder fatigue. Expected to miss a couple of starts.
And then
@nickpiecoro: RHP Allen Webster placed on the Triple-A Reno disabled list with shoulder fatigue. Expected to miss a couple of starts.
Here's a double-header, and a reminder of why the backside is the best side to see of AJ
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/120078714/bartolo-colon-runs-down-aj-pierzynski-on-unassisted-caught-stealing
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/120078714/bartolo-colon-runs-down-aj-pierzynski-on-unassisted-caught-stealing
VMart is so good w/ risp. Responsible for all three Tigers runs today. He doesn't try to do too much. He's a professional hitter.
First thought was Tigers were still playing Yankees and the Tigers were leading. Too bad I was wrong.InsideTheParker said:
Jerry Sands (key piece of the Punto trade) DFA'd by the Tribe.
meanwhile in Texas, Alex Hassan DFA'd by the Rangers
meanwhile in Texas, Alex Hassan DFA'd by the Rangers
Yeah, it's painful to watch the Tigers now, both Iglesias and Cespedes are so good. Why can't the Red Sox, etc.?
Anthony Varvaro claimed by Theo and the Cubs from the Sox after being DFA.
http://nesn.com/2015/05/anthony-varvaro-claimed-off-waivers-by-cubs-after-being-dfa-by-red-sox/?utm_source=NESN+Inside+Pitch&utm_campaign=28573f826c-RSS_NESN_TONIGHT&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_610d240f75-28573f826c-100099306
http://nesn.com/2015/05/anthony-varvaro-claimed-off-waivers-by-cubs-after-being-dfa-by-red-sox/?utm_source=NESN+Inside+Pitch&utm_campaign=28573f826c-RSS_NESN_TONIGHT&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_610d240f75-28573f826c-100099306
InsideTheParker said:
Yeah, if only the Red Sox had a good shortstop and left fielder...perhaps they could trade their 2013 WS win and Porcello for those guys.
Hopefully Iglesias can keep up his Nomar-in-2000-but-without-any-power .382 BABIP.
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
Jake Peavy kinda earned his keep with a 4-1, 4.04 ERA, 3.79 FIP finish to the 2013 season and then 2 good starts out of 3 in the playoffs. We had a backup plan at SS, but not at #4 starter, unless you think Dempster was going to out-pitch him.
If Iglesias somehow hits to a .700 OPS over the next few years, then great, the Tigers, White Sox and the Red Sox were all winners of that trade. We gave up long-term value, but got enough short-term value back that we were able to win a title. Besides, Avisail Garcia is doing pretty well for the CWS this year, so Detroit lost his services too. I don't think any of the 3 teams involved there would go back and undo that trade if they could.
If Iglesias somehow hits to a .700 OPS over the next few years, then great, the Tigers, White Sox and the Red Sox were all winners of that trade. We gave up long-term value, but got enough short-term value back that we were able to win a title. Besides, Avisail Garcia is doing pretty well for the CWS this year, so Detroit lost his services too. I don't think any of the 3 teams involved there would go back and undo that trade if they could.
Rudy Pemberton said:
Of course it's very likely the Sox don't win the WS without Peavy in 2013, so what's your point again?
Wringing one's hands about Iglesias now is beyond silly. The Red Sox WON THE WORLD SERIES THE YEAR THEY MADE THAT TRADE.