Good stuff
@burstnbloom - I don't know enough about the coaching candidates outside of the retreads to say whether I have any preferences, but I think we're all aligned that the retread route is not palatable.
I'm going into this exercise assuming Bergeron is retired, and that the Bruins will have the option to generate some breathing room with Marchand and McAvoy on LTIR to start the season (though I don't think that'll happen). Regardless, here goes...
1) Explore Pastrnak's appetite on signing long-term, as well as on a 2-3 year deal to let him get max or near-max AAV, improve his trade value, and re-enter unrestricted free agency while still in his prime
2) Explore which teams Hall would waive for if it came down to it - he will have 14 teams he can be dealt to this year, 20 starting next year
Everything else is pending the outcome of 1 & 2. If you can re-sign Pastrnak short- or long-term, you do it. If you can't, no choice but to explore the trade market around draft day. If the teams Hall can't block a trade to would be interested, figure out what the return could be come deadline day, and back pocket it.
When a team is exploring a tear-down, a vastly under-utilized means of asset collection (IMO) is short-term contracts to UFAs or non-tendered RFAs. This works two ways for a team at a crossroads like the Bruins:
- Enables them to continue spending to the cap with short-term commitments, not hamstringing the long-term roster flexibility
- Gives them a chance to see what a new mix of players can accomplish, i.e. are they hanging around the wild card spots come trade deadline day? If so, a few more playoff gates are available, stand pat or add a few pieces.
- If they're out of it, selling offers a considerable amount of draft capital at effectively zero cost
Now, how do the Bruins clear salary space to take on UFAs / non-tendered RFAs and which ones do they target? With Marchand, McAvoy, Grzelcyk, and Reilly on the shelf to start the year, the roster looks like this:
Hall - Haula - Pastrnak
DeBrusk - Coyle - Smith
Frederic - Studnicka - Steen
Foligno - Nosek - Wagner
Lauko
Lindholm - Clifton
Zboril - Carlo
Forbort - Ahcan
7D ($800k)
Swayman
Ullmark
Forwards: $43.6m inc Studnicka at minimum
Defense: $32.6m inc Ahcan at minimum
Goalies: $5.9m
Total: $82.1m (< $0.5m in cap space)
Includes all of Marchand, McAvoy, Grzelcyk, Reilly
Is it possible the team would go hyper-aggressive in terms of making signings to get into LTIR and add flexibility? Possibly - but with the struggles they'll see at the gates this year and a likely middling chance at a playoff team, I don't see Jacobs greenlighting spending above the cap to be competitive.
There are a handful of players I look to move in the next month, or at the deadline worst-case:
- Brandon Carlo - 5 years, $4.1m AAV remaining
- Something is broken with this player. Worth exploring if you can get out from under this.
- Craig Smith - 1 year, $3.1m AAV remaining
- Likely more valuable to keep this year with increased ice time and see if the counting stats get you a better deadline day return
- Derek Forbort - 2 years, $3m AAV remaining
- Mike Reilly - 2 years, $3m AAV remaining
- Can't believe he was in the press box, but if he can get back to the 2020-21 post-deadline form, he's an attractive asset to some teams (esp retained)
- Linus Ullmark - 3 years, $5m AAV remaining
- See if Edmonton or some other desperate team bites with $$ retained - he is of minimal use at this price point to a team with a strong goaltending pipeline and no immediate contention
If you can move any of the above players, I look to sign some of the below veterans on 1 year deals to move at the deadline and fill out the forward roster. Maybe you catch lightning in a bottle and some dumb organization will give you a 2nd and 4th for the equivalent of Lee Stempniak for 15 games.
- Victor Rask
- Zach Aston-Reese
- Mattias Janmark
- Michael Raffl
- Zach Sanford
- Marcus Johansson
- Noel Acciari
- Chris Tierney
On the backline, I can see them signing a couple of guys in the Kris Russell / Andrej Sekera mold - guys they've long been linked to but never signed, and would be cheap enough to get on a one year commitment.
The rest of these players are deadline deals to try and bank draft picks, maximize overall organizational assets, etc:
- Haula
- Smith
- Nosek
- Frederic (young-ish and cost-controlled but sucks)
Without Bergeron / Krejci, there is no path forward but to bottom out for 1-2 years, gather assets, use them to acquire more developed young players, and give the Pastrnak / McAvoy / Hall / Lindholm core a shot starting in '23-'24. They won't have the roster or salary flexibility to make much of a dent this year (shout out summer 2021 UFA signings). With Bergeron / Krejci, you're staving off the inevitable.
This organization is going into a dark place, and they just fired a guy that helped paper over this roster's shortcomings.
