February 2020 NBA Game Thread

chilidawg

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Yeah the Raps are really really good. Missing Gasol & Powell too. Anyone who thinks the Celts are better then them is crazy. That will be an insanely hard series to win, which is why Celts need home court.
s
Celtics lack of depth puts them at a disadvantage against both the Bucks and Raptors. Six or seven deep we're right there, but it drops off fast for us.

Impressive win for the Bucks on a road btb, coming off an overtime win last night (as SVG pointed out several times).
 

Jed Zeppelin

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National announcer pondering a challenge of a non-call, which is...not a possibility by the rules of the NBA!
 

Cesar Crespo

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Coby White's been playing out of his mind the last 3 games. 3rd straight 30 point game. 35 points on 13-21 shooting, 6-9 from 3. Last 2 games he was 11-18 and 5-9 from 3 and 11-22 and 7-13 from 3.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I hate watching Holiday. He is always doing stupid things on the court and thinks he's their best player.
Well, for a long time he has been their best player (especially after AD stopped playing last year). But yeah, he plays with the sort of confidence that Smarf might have were he the only good player on his team. If that makes any sense...
 

benhogan

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s
Celtics lack of depth puts them at a disadvantage against both the Bucks and Raptors. Six or seven deep we're right there, but it drops off fast for us.

Impressive win for the Bucks on a road btb, coming off an overtime win last night (as SVG pointed out several times).
I agree the Bucks are on another level this season but don't think it will be the back end of the Celtics roster that makes a huge difference

Celtics' playoff rotation:
Positions 1-4 (192mpg): Kemba, Hayward, Tatum, Brown, Smart all getting ~35mpg (175mpg)
which leaves 17mpg

Center (48mpg): Theis (25mpg), Kanter (15mpg)
which leaves 8mpg

The majority of those spare minutes could be Granites' if he continues with his development.
Maybe Brad plays a few PG minutes here and there, but matchup dependent.
Maybe TL surprises us with some bouncy minutes at the 5?
 

johnmd20

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I know things change quick, but it's incredible that the NBA finalists for four straight years from 2015 to 2018 are a combined 28-87 this year. .243 winning percentage. The absolute bottom of the barrel.
 

Jimbodandy

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Basically, we don't have a good #7 or 8. That's probably true but not catastrophic. And our specialists aren't anything special.

Even our #7 and #8 aren't bad.
 

lovegtm

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Basically, we don't have a good #7 or 8. That's probably true but not catastrophic. And our specialists aren't anything special.

Even our #7 and #8 aren't bad.
These problems go away when Tatum/Brown/Hayward are playing 38 mins/night in the playoffs. Brad has shown every indication he’s willing to play them that much or more in big games this year. This isn’t our granddaddy’s Horford-load-management team.
 

Jimbodandy

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These problems go away when Tatum/Brown/Hayward are playing 38 mins/night in the playoffs. Brad has shown every indication he’s willing to play them that much or more in big games this year. This isn’t our granddaddy’s Horford-load-management team.
I agree completely.

I guess my point is that if "it would be nice if our OK #7 and #8 players were better" is our biggest problem, we're in pretty good fucking shape. Yeah, I'd love to have more and health is important, but that basically describes everyone.

For example, "no wing defense" or "not enough shooting" are real problems, and we don't have those.
 

lovegtm

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Miami is quietly in total free-fall. 3-7 in their last 10, blowing a 12-point lead with under 4 to go at home against Minnesota last night. It turns out that, in a shocker, winning tons of overtime games with your physically over matched team doesn't predict future success. 538 has them at 49 wins total.

Barring crazy health issues, the Celtics are going to avoid the Bucks side of the bracket, which gives them more leeway to load-manage Kemba.

Toronto is good, but they put a TON into regular season game-planning, and that edge will mostly disappear in the playoffs imo.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Miami is quietly in total free-fall. 3-7 in their last 10, blowing a 12-point lead with under 4 to go at home against Minnesota last night. It turns out that, in a shocker, winning tons of overtime games with your physically over matched team doesn't predict future success. 538 has them at 49 wins total.

Barring crazy health issues, the Celtics are going to avoid the Bucks side of the bracket, which gives them more leeway to load-manage Kemba.

Toronto is good, but they put a TON into regular season game-planning, and that edge will mostly disappear in the playoffs imo.
All but two of those 10 games have come on the road where the Heat are 13-18 compared to their home record of 23-4......they have a 13-point home/road split differential in these games. In addition, Jimmy Butler has missed 3 of those losses.

I view the Heat similarly to the Sixers in that their splits are so severe that they are literally like watching two different team with there being no correlation between their home and road efforts. The Heat play 7 of their next 9 at home.....I’d be surprised if they are worse than 6-3 during this stretch.
 

lovegtm

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All but two of those 10 games have come on the road where the Heat are 13-18 compared to their home record of 23-4......they have a 13-point home/road split differential in these games. In addition, Jimmy Butler has missed 3 of those losses.

I view the Heat similarly to the Sixers in that their splits are so severe that they are literally like watching two different team with there being no correlation between their home and road efforts. The Heat play 7 of their next 9 at home.....I’d be surprised if they are worse than 6-3 during this stretch.
Yeah, main point is that they're falling pretty far behind the Celtics. Agree about home/road for them: I expect whichever of them and Philly can get home-court advantage to win that 4-5 matchup.
 

bigq

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The Hornets beating Toronto is a nice gift. Rozier with 18-6-6 in a winning effort is the cherry on top.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Clippers putting a beat down on the Nuggets. I said it in the betting thread the other day but this Clippers team was primed to go on a massive run and tonight surely didn’t change my mind.
 

lovegtm

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I understand how officials generally swallow their whistles to contact on game ending plays.......but you really have to make that call even under the circumstances.
Nick Nurse is incredulous to learn that you are not allowed to play hockey with the opposing team's point guard.

(Side note: I think Nurse might be the best coach in the league, but man, does he piss me off. Something too scrappy and college-y about him.)
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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MIL blows out OKC. I haven't watched MIL outside of their games against the Cs and PHI, but they seem to have put together a pretty optimal roster around Giannis.

But then again it anyone can give them problems in the playoffs, it will be PHi.
 

benhogan

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Nick Nurse is incredulous to learn that you are not allowed to play hockey with the opposing team's point guard.

(Side note: I think Nurse might be the best coach in the league, but man, does he piss me off. Something too scrappy and college-y about him.)
I like how Nurse developed Davis/Powell this season and gets something out of G-League players (Boucher, Thomas, Brissett). He also tries different zone defenses for small doses all game long to throw the opponent off, it's rather clever/unique.

Nurse reminds me of Joe Maddon during his TB days. Likable yet annoyingly successful.
 

JakeRae

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Did ESPN's RPM glitch out yesterday? Or suddenly start using a new secret sauce? Overnight they seem to have hailed the return of Steph (still on track for tomorrow, I think) by bumping him up from #100-something into the top ten.

It seems to clearly be a new formula as Tatum dropped from 5th to 20th and Jaylen is now a top 40 player when before he wasn’t close to that level. They don’t seem to have disclosed a change though. Without knowing what they changed, this seems to make RPM completely useless. At least before we had what seemed to be a stable black box.
 

chilidawg

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lovegtm

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Did ESPN's RPM glitch out yesterday? Or suddenly start using a new secret sauce? Overnight they seem to have hailed the return of Steph (still on track for tomorrow, I think) by bumping him up from #100-something into the top ten.

Yes, they posted something about a big change yesterday on Twitter, lemme find the link.

Edit:
View: https://twitter.com/bmacGTPM/status/1233482202836545539?s=20
 

Sam Ray Not

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Thanks.

LeBron dropping from #1 by a country mile to a fairly distant #2 behind Giannis seems pretty significant given that his huge RPM lead had frequently been given as a pillar of his (somewhat dubious) case for MVP.

And Curry leaping over 100 spots into the top ten while playing Candyland with Riley and Ryan seems more like a massive overhaul in how they weigh priors than a “little” adjustment in box score v. on-off stats.

ESPN has just admitted that RPM is bunk. The Ralph Wiggum avatar seems apt.
 
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bigq

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Thanks.

LeBron dropping from #1 by a country mile to a fairly distant #2 behind Giannis seems pretty significant given that his huge RPM lead had frequently been given as a pillar of his (somewhat dubious) case for MVP.

And Curry leaping over 100 spots into the top ten while playing Candyland with Riley and Ryan seems more like a massive overhaul in how they weigh priors than a “little” adjustment in box score v. on-off stats.

ESPN has just admitted that RPM is bunk. The Ralph Wiggum avatar seems apt.
ESPN’s black box statistics are annoying. Throw RPM in with QBR as irrelevant statistics. If we don’t know specifically how they are calculated and the definitions are subject to change over time, how can they be relevant?
 

InstaFace

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yeah, I have literally never relied on QBR to tell me a goddamn thing or inform my understanding. About the only time I mention it is when I have to get pedantic with someone to disambiguate it from passer rating.

At least with PER, Hollinger gives you all the gory details in his book and the formulas and process are public on Bk-ref.

The most insulting part of the stat is the use of "Real" in the name. This stat here is realer than all those other nonsense stats you're already using! Q: How does it work? A: Go fuck yourself.
 

lovegtm

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The Russ 2020 redemption tour has been awesome to watch.
I'm coming around on the Rockets watching experience. They're adding a lot of new wrinkles now that they're comfortable with this system, and Russ Unleashed is a fun experience. It's a big step up from Harden/Paul iso-ball.