foulkehampshire said:
If Lester is a borderline #1, that suggests (with 30 teams) that there are 25-35 starting pitchers you'd put as #1's ahead of him.
I'd like to see that list.
Extending Lester
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If Lester is a borderline #1, that suggests (with 30 teams) that there are 25-35 starting pitchers you'd put as #1's ahead of him.
I'd like to see that list.
People love to crap on Lucchino but his frequently stated mantra last season was that one of the organization's goals was to make being a Red Sox so desirable -- all things considered -- that players would do exactly what Pedey did and Lester says he will do.
I remember hearing Jacoby Ellsbury get interviewed on the field after a walk off win and having him remark about what an amazing place Boston was to play. I thought then that maybe, just maybe, Ellsbury would put a premium on staying a Red Sox, Alas, it appears that the Sox interest was so much less robust than the MFYs' that it really never came into play. Or perhaps Ells was always about the money. Either way, it's very nice to see other guys lining up behind Pedroia (or at least saying that they will). Especially so soon after Boston was declared toxic all the way back in 2012.
The union and the agents are going to hate this. Good.
I remember hearing Jacoby Ellsbury get interviewed on the field after a walk off win and having him remark about what an amazing place Boston was to play. I thought then that maybe, just maybe, Ellsbury would put a premium on staying a Red Sox, Alas, it appears that the Sox interest was so much less robust than the MFYs' that it really never came into play. Or perhaps Ells was always about the money. Either way, it's very nice to see other guys lining up behind Pedroia (or at least saying that they will). Especially so soon after Boston was declared toxic all the way back in 2012.
The union and the agents are going to hate this. Good.
Let's say that Lester really would take 5/$100mm. Before this crazy off-season where dollars are being spent like crazy and before the Kershaw and Tanaka deals, I wonder where the Sox saw this going. Was 5/85 a pipe dream? Were/are they concerned that Lester would/will want a 6th (or even 7th year)?
Even if the speculation on 5/100 is even remotely true, is it a layup that the Sox would do that, given the depth of the team's SP (including prospects)?
I love the loyalty that Pedey demonstrated, that Napoli continued and that Lester is demonstrating. I'm just wondering what the Sox will determine to be Lester's worth to the club.
Even if the speculation on 5/100 is even remotely true, is it a layup that the Sox would do that, given the depth of the team's SP (including prospects)?
I love the loyalty that Pedey demonstrated, that Napoli continued and that Lester is demonstrating. I'm just wondering what the Sox will determine to be Lester's worth to the club.
Lose Remerswaal said:
This is with the assumption that that every team has a "#1" which I don't think is the case. Sure every team has a best pitcher but doesn't mean he's a #1 guy in a playoff rotation
Lose Remerswaal said:
Jon Lester, among MLB qualified pitchers:
- 52nd in era (3.75)
- 12th in IP (213.1)
- 31st in Ks (177)
- 54th in whip (1.29)
- 38th in WAR (3.0 - according to espn.com)
That's a nice, solid profile. Is it top 25-30 in baseball? Based on last year's stats, here's a list of guys I'd rank higher than Lester:
- Kershaw (7.9 WAR, 1.83 era)
- Fernandez (6.3 WAR, 2.19 era)
- King Felix (5.2 WAR, 3.03 era)
- Harvey (5.2 WAR, 2.27 era)
- Sanchez (6.3 WAR, 2.57 era)
- Darvish (5.8 WAR, 2.83 era)
- Bumgarner (3.9 WAR, 2.77 era)
- Greinke (3.9 WAR, 2.63 era)
- Iwakuma (7.0 WAR, 2.66 era)
- Scherzer (6.7 WAR, 2.90 era)
- Lee (7.3 WAR, 2.87 era)
- Colon (5.1 WAR, 2.65 era)
- Wainwright (6.2 WAR, 2.94 era)
- Strasburg (3.1 WAR, 3.00 era)
- Ryu (3.3 WAR, 3.00 era)
- Miller (3.4 WAR, 3.06 era) - still blows me away that StL shelved him for the playoffs….
- Sale (6.9 WAR, 3.07 era)
- Shields (4.1 WAR, 3.15 era)
- Latos (3.8 WAR, 3.16 era)
- Zimmerman (3.7 WAR, 3.25 era)
- Price (2.8 WAR, 3.33 era)
- Verlander (4.6 WAR, 3.46 era)
- Chacin (5.9 WAR, 3.47 era)
- Hamels (4.6 WAR, 3.60 era)
That's 24 right there. There are lots of other guys that ended up with a higher WAR than Lester, if that metric matters to you.
Now, if you count his postseason performance, obviously there Lester was not just an ace, but an historically great ACE. Just unbelievable. And I'm not saying I'd rather have everyone on that list above over Lester, because I wouldn't. He's been terrific for the Red Sox over the course of his career. But there are plenty of starters that have put together a statistical resume better than Lester's. And that's not even considering his stinker of a 2012 season.
Yes. As Cherington & Lucchino have both said, it's about a balanced portfolio. Lester is not a dominant ace, but he's a high-quality horse. Not a pure #1, but a bankable 1.5. He's exactly the kind of pitcher you want locked up long-term so you can build a rotation around him. He can be to Sox pitching in this decade what Dwight Evans was to their positional lineup in the 80s. I wouldn't overpay for him, but if he's willing to sign up for a long but moderate contract, I do that in a heartbeat.NJ Fan said:
Keeping players like Lester is what the team is supposed to be saving the money FOR. 6 yrs, $125 mil gets it done.
I think I remember many years ago, back when Lester was recently diagnosed with lymphoma and it wasn't clear if he would ever be able to play again, that the team kept him up on the major league roster, which IIRC meant he received more pay and better healthcare while he was being treated. It made me glad to see the organization do the decent thing for a kid who had to be scared out of his mind. Maybe its the sort of thing that also sticks in pitcher's mind years down the road. Here's hoping both sides can come to an amicable agreement.
Rdsxmbnt said:
If only we had some data on whether or not Lester could be the #1 starter on a viable playoff contender...
Farrell said at the seminar last year that when the FO and management met to discuss who were the core of gamers that they would build their new band of baseball obsessed maniacs around (this is my language, not his), Lester was one of the guys that was nearly unanimous. It's kinda cool that it seems like the team is as much a feel good operation as we, the fans, want to believe it is.
I don't follow. Pedroia got less than half of what Cano got. Half of Tanaka is 75m. Less than that is not 5/100.Minneapolis Millers said:
This is not the time to low-ball a guy who wants to stay in Boston, and who's open to giving the Sox a discount. If they can do a 5-6 years at $20MM-$22MM per, this should get done. It sends a real positive message to both FAs and the homegrown kids, that Boston is a place to win, is an alternative to chasing the last $ and can be a long-term destination..
bankshot1 said:
Jeebus people, $22M is a "discount" on a 6 year contract for a pitcher's age 31 to age 37 years? He's made $30M to date, and has $13M coming to him next year. I'm thinking if the Sox are going to break their own rules (don't give older pitchers 5+ year contracts) and offer 6 or 7 years, they would want him at around $17-$18M year AAV, which still makes him the highest paid guy on the team. If his salary jumps $9-$10M per year after 2014, that's a lot less to spread around to get talent to surround him with, aka, not a useful "discount"....
Jeebus, the market for FA pitchers is hot, teams got $$ to spend, Lester is a 1.5 with a nice pedigree, an ability to pitch successfully in the AL East and has pitched well against aces in the the post-season, and he's a lefty. Over the past week we've seen Kershaw , a legit #1 sign for $30mm a year, and Tanaka, largely untested, who may be a #3 for the MFY sign for $22MM for 7 years, so yes $20-22MM is probably a discount for Lester in this market
It's not your money and I don't think 5/100, which is what I mentioned had been speculated on this thread, is a moderate contract, given his factors. Like a wrote earlier, his circumstances (particularly age) are far different from Kershaw and Tanaka.Savin Hillbilly said:
glennhoffmania said:
Pedroia was also locked into his previous extension and 3 years away from free agency. Lester is only 1 year removed from free agency. I think a better comp on what is possible or expected is Becketts extension. He was also 1 year removed from free agency and the same age as Lester is now coming off a pretty good season. Obviously, prices have went up since 2010, so if if you adjust what Beckett got upward 20% you would be looking at 4/82 or 5/100 if they went the extra year.
NJ Fan said:
Is "NJ Fan" John Henry's handle? If not, what's your point? We're all playing with other people's chips around here, that's a given.
We may not be that far apart on this. By "moderate" I don't mean "discounted," I just mean "non-inflationary" or, so to speak, on the back edge of the market. I think 5/100 would be reasonable in the context of the other deals we're seeing, but I wouldn't call it a discount for a pitcher of Lester's ability at this stage in his career. It seems like about fair market value. If you figure the average price of a win over the next 5 years will be $6M, then it's asking him to average 3.3 WAR over the next five years. That may be mildly optimistic, but then $6M may be mildly conservative. However you slice it, it's pretty close to right. If we want him to take a hometown discount, then call it 5/90.
The only concern I have about Lester's AAV is whether it would tie up the team's budget for other players, as the team's pool of money is not unlimited. However, outside of that, I really could care less if they pay Lester a discount or fair market value. Yes, Kershaw and Tanaka are different situations, but their contracts did set the market value for all pitchers, Lester included, and that market value is higher than what it was last year at this time.
$20M/yr is very much a reasonable estimate of what Lester (2013 ERA+ of 109 per BRef) would get on the open market if he became a FA today. That's still less than Cole Hammels (ERA+ of 106) or CC Sabathia (85). I think most GM's would discount the Bobby Valentine/Bob McClure induced fiasco of 2012 when it comes to evaluating Lester's ability.
$20M/yr is very much a reasonable estimate of what Lester (2013 ERA+ of 109 per BRef) would get on the open market if he became a FA today. That's still less than Cole Hammels (ERA+ of 106) or CC Sabathia (85). I think most GM's would discount the Bobby Valentine/Bob McClure induced fiasco of 2012 when it comes to evaluating Lester's ability.
lexrageorge said:
They set the market for pitchers in their 30s?
lexrageorge said:
But he is not going on the open market as a FA, and as such acknowledged that he would have to take a discount, so I'm assuming that is going to have to be less than a $20M AAV for the Sox to do a lengthy deal.
You want a comp? Adam Wainwright. Signed a 5/97.5m deal last year as a 31 yo with one year of control left. He professed his love for the city of St Louis upon signing and reiterated his happiness with his deal and decision this past week in the wake of Kershaw's deal.
Lester is in almost exactly the same spot. Give him an extra 2.5m because, you know, he BEAT Waino, and everyone should he happy. The Sox will have the money and lux tax room and can use the stability Lester will provide as they try to break in their SP prospects over the next two years.
Lester is in almost exactly the same spot. Give him an extra 2.5m because, you know, he BEAT Waino, and everyone should he happy. The Sox will have the money and lux tax room and can use the stability Lester will provide as they try to break in their SP prospects over the next two years.
While I don't want to take away from the sentiment, I'm pretty sure you can't demote someone and then immediately place them on the DL.effectivelywild said:
effectivelywild, on 23 Jan 2014 - 9:47 PM, said:
effectivelywild said:
At the time, Lester (or his father) expressed great appreciation for the support from the organization. It makes absolute sense to think that sentiment plays some role in this.
Edit: Sorry for the screwed up quote format.
Precisely. He's 6 years older than Tanaka - that needs to be taken into consideration. The Yankees are also insane with their contracts - this also needs to be taken into consideration. I would never suggest that Tanaka is a better pitcher than Lester (who knows for sure at this point?), but he's younger and just because the Yankees went batshit crazy on their deal doesn't mean everyone has to use that as a comp. True, the Cubs were willing to go 150M, but they're the Cubs - they suck and have money to spend. We're the defending World Series champs, we've proven that we will remain competitive, and Lester is comfortable with this environment - we're not asking him to move cross country or half way around the world. I think a $17-18M AAV is excellent for both sides - especially if Lester is professing his love of this team and his willingness to take a discount. I'm having trouble considering $20-22M AAV as a discount.TheYaz67 said:
Agreed, but unless they add in a player option or two, I don't think it's enough to get done. I think Jon is going to want at least 5 years, maybe 6, as this is most likely his last big payday (even with the discount).C4CRVT said:
From what I've seen, it simply doesn't compute with them. Like hearing Swahili, they pause briefly and move on.gixer1k said:
And love Lester's two wins over Wainwright.jimbobim said:
It's great that Lester is willing to take less than top dollar, and by him saying that publicly, the pressure in the court of public opinion now shifts to the Sox to get a deal done.
If all goes well, Lester wins the opener in Baltimore and the deal is announced the next day.
OK, though I think at this point, with contracts shooting past $18m AAV like it's a speed bump, I would say that $17-18m is a hometown discount. It's not reasonable considering that's Wainwright money, it's inflation pure and simple. But it *is* happening. I think there's a good chance he signs for slightly under $20m but not much under. [/baseless speculation]Yaz4Ever said:
I was thinking Lester was probably implying he'd take a hometown discount in terms of AAV for more years, so my guess would be they could maybe do 6/$111 with a team option for a seventh year at $18.5 million that had a meaningful buyout around $3 million and reasonable vesting conditions (more than 350 IP in the last two years or more than 190 IP in the final year).
Lester has one year that matches Wainwright's career SO:BB ratio. Wainwright has 3 times gone above 230 IP; Lester has never gone above 215. Wainwright has a career ERA+ of 129 vs. Lester's 117. Wainwright's career FIP is 3.17 (a number he has beaten the last 4 years he pitched), while Lester has beaten that career mark twice and has a career FIP more than a 1/2 run higher. I suppose we could go on, but Wainwright has a significantly better resume.Minneapolis Millers said:
I don't think the final number is crazy (5/~100), but the comparison is. Wainwright is a steal at 5/100; Lester may or may not be, but he is certainly a lot less of a steal.
Joshv02 said:
There is something to be said about Lester's durability. He's as much of a lock as you can get to make 30+ starts a year. 6 straight years, in fact.
Joshv02 said:
In the National League Central which is an enormous caveat. Lester basically never gets to face the pitcher and he's been pitching in arguably the toughest division for pitchers in baseball for his entire career in a ballpark that punishes left handed pitchers (the Monster) in the Boston market, not "hey everybody's happy you showed up today" like St. Louis. You can have your Wainwright I'll take the guy who beat him, twice on the biggest stage.
I spent a lot of this year down on Lester, and saying he lacked both the command and the stuff to be an Ace (or the rare combo of both to be an historic stuff), and he is more of a #2/#3. He shut me up in the playoffs and earned his way back to #1.5/#2 consideration. I don't think you would straight up swap him for Kershaw/Verlander/Price/Felix and a longer list, but he is still young enough, dedicated to this club, and has shown some improvement with Farrell back that I would hope will continue.
He will have his good days, but won't show enough consistent command to be really dominant over the long haul, but even that has tremendous value in the current market. I put him as a very low injury risk mechanically with his frame and arm action, and think 5/100 is not unreasonable. Sixth years for pitchers in their 30s seems pretty silly, but some kind of vesting option could certainly factor in.
Either way, I'm excited to keep him, and excited to have a home grown star who happily wants to stay in Boston. It is nice to mix in the Pedey/Lester types while the Paps/Ells guys walk for contracts that look silly at the end.
He will have his good days, but won't show enough consistent command to be really dominant over the long haul, but even that has tremendous value in the current market. I put him as a very low injury risk mechanically with his frame and arm action, and think 5/100 is not unreasonable. Sixth years for pitchers in their 30s seems pretty silly, but some kind of vesting option could certainly factor in.
Either way, I'm excited to keep him, and excited to have a home grown star who happily wants to stay in Boston. It is nice to mix in the Pedey/Lester types while the Paps/Ells guys walk for contracts that look silly at the end.
thehitcat said:
ERA+ does reflect all of that stuff, though. I agree that Wainwright is a better pitcher than Lester, but he's also a couple of years older, the market has changed since last March, and that was arguably a pretty team-friendly contract even when it was signed.
Savin Hillbilly said:
Isn't it true though that if you're pitching in the toughest division in the AL vs. the softest division in the NL that ERA+ would skew towards the NL pitcher? In other words, wouldn't Lester compare more favorably to Wainwright, all other things being equal, if he pitched for the A's?
You're missing the forest for the trees and cherry picking a bit as well. Look at the season Wainwright had before signing his deal: 198 innings, ERA+ of 96. His worst year. So "recency" likely played a part in his deal, just as it would with Lester (including his sterling postseason).Joshv02 said:
Ultimately, you're probably right that Wainwright is slightly better, but the comp in most respects is a good one.
I think this is essentially true. ERA+ does not adjust for differences in divisional opponents, which can be buried in the more generic league and park adjustments.glennhoffmania said:
ivanvamp said:
His fangraphs WAR is much higher -- 4.3 for last year. The formulas are pretty different.
One thing about his WAR numbers, though, is that they're pretty consistent. He hasn't had a bad WAR year in 6 years (fWAR): 5.0, 6.2, 5.4, 3.5, 3.2, 4.3. Of the active players with more than 25 WAR (bref now, because they actually have tables), he's one of only 8 under 32 years old: Hernandez (27), Greinke (29), Hamels (29), Weaver (30), Cain (28), Kershaw (25), Lester (29), Wainwright (31).
There's nothing he's shown to suggest he won't be at the least a 3.0 WAR player each year for the reasonable future. Even if he was projected only at 3.0 WAR for the next five years, that alone on the current market is worth nearly $80 to $90 million. Add in that is likely his floor, he throws with his left arm, and has a 2.11 post-season ERA, and is 3-0 in the world series, having given up 12 hits, 1 ER, and 4 BBs in 21 innings, and 5/100 is a slam dunk.
Putting aside that his career ERA+ went down this year (ie, it was 130 when he signed his extension), and that his three year (weighted or not) ERA+ (or any real stat) was better than Lester's, why are they good comps? Like I said, 5/100 isn't a bad guess, and we don't disagree ilthat it's reasonable for Lester to sign near that, but I don't get the comparison.Minneapolis Millers said:
It isn't that the two are similar statistically, apparently. So what is it?
If we're going to look for comps for Lester, I don't think it gets much better than Anibal Sanchez. His contract was fairly recent (2013), he was a year younger at the time and unlike guys like Hamels he has similar career numbers and recent performance (and his GM's not crazy).
Career
Sanchez - 86 ERA-, 86 FIP-, 94 xFIP-, 3.90 SIERA
Lester - 86 ERA-, 85 FIP-, 89 xFIP-, 3.83 SIERA
3 years prior to contract
Sanchez - 11.5 WAR, 92 ERA-, 85 FIP-, 92 xFIP-, 3.67 SIERA
Lester - 10.9 WAR, 95 ERA-, 91 FIP-, 93 xFIP-, 3.84 SIERA
And Sanchez got 5 years/$80 million. You could give some more weight to intangibles like Lester's postseason performance, but Lester did also say that he'd be willing to take a discount and he is a year older. A 5 years/$80 million offer seems very fair to me, especially if he's willing to take a discount.
Career
Sanchez - 86 ERA-, 86 FIP-, 94 xFIP-, 3.90 SIERA
Lester - 86 ERA-, 85 FIP-, 89 xFIP-, 3.83 SIERA
3 years prior to contract
Sanchez - 11.5 WAR, 92 ERA-, 85 FIP-, 92 xFIP-, 3.67 SIERA
Lester - 10.9 WAR, 95 ERA-, 91 FIP-, 93 xFIP-, 3.84 SIERA
And Sanchez got 5 years/$80 million. You could give some more weight to intangibles like Lester's postseason performance, but Lester did also say that he'd be willing to take a discount and he is a year older. A 5 years/$80 million offer seems very fair to me, especially if he's willing to take a discount.
Wainwright is a terrible comp for Lester. Wainwright is the better pitcher but hasn't been as durable as Lester (he missed the 2011 season, which was hardly ancient history when he signed his extension). Too many variables.
maufman said:
Do those factors outweigh the age difference, the fact that Sanchez pitched better than Lester when he was healthy and the fact that Lester is saying he is willing to take a discount? If you look at WAR $, it pegs Lester at a $17.1 million over the last three years so the 5 year/$16 million per offer doesn't seem that out of the ordinary for a pitcher of his caliber.
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gixer1k said:
What's it like living in 2003? Has the Iraq war started yet?
edit: buy Apple stock.
Do those factors outweigh the age difference, the fact that Sanchez pitched better than Lester when he was healthy and the fact that Lester is saying he is willing to take a discount? If you look at WAR $, it pegs Lester at a $17.1 million over the last three years so the 5 year/$16 million per offer doesn't seem that out of the ordinary for a pitcher of his caliber.
Who knows what outweighs what? They're totally different pitchers getting paid under different circumstances.
Who knows what outweighs what? They're totally different pitchers getting paid under different circumstances.
Hoplite said:
Fan Graphs is still using 5 million per win on their player pages, which they admit is only a rough guide at this point, but there is pretty good evidence teams are going to 6 million per win now, and perhaps higher for pitchers. That would put Lester closer to 22 million based on his 3 yr average of 3.7 fWAR, and a good year in 2014 could push that higher.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-early-look-at-the-price-of-a-win-this-off-season/
Assuming some decline over 5 yrs and factor in salary inflation that pushes the $/WAR up 5% per yr, then 5/100 seems the most appropriate number for his value today. Maybe the discount he is willing to accept brings it to 5/80, no idea about that.
If you remove the 2012 fiasco, Lester's numbers look a whole letter better in those comps. Not sure why folks are unwilling to consider 2012 an outlier given the circumstances.
lexrageorge said:
I think 2011-2013 is most representative of the pitcher that he is now. 2009-2010, he was averaging 93+ mph on his fastball, striking out more than a batter an inning and getting 50+% ground ball rates. Before that, he was he was still adjusting to the majors leagues and had some pretty wonky numbers in 2008. He hasn't resembled that kind of pitcher since. If you look at Lester's DIPS in 2012 and not his ERA, it doesn't look like an outlier at all.
2011 - 3.83 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, 3.59 SIERA
2012 - 4.11 FIP, 3.82 xFIP, 3.94 SIERA
2013 - 3.59 FIP, 3.90 xFIP, 3.97 SIERA
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