Extending Lester

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benhogan

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maufman said:
I'm not sure I buy into the notion that being able to pitch in Boston is some sort of "ability" -- a year ago, people who believed in this supposed ability cited John Lackey as a prime example of someone who lacked it.

I do, however, strongly believe that a club invariably knows more about its own players, and particularly its own pitchers, than it knows about players on other teams. If the FO is bullish on Lester's ability to maintain his health and performance level as he ages, that's an excellent reason to pay a premium price to extend him.
hmmm, maybe we should go after AJ Burnett then?  then again maybe not.
 
A year ago John Lackey was getting surgery.
 
Besides having to pitch in the AL East in a hitters park for half your games, I do believe there is an added 'pressure' in playing for the Red Sox over every other team in baseball (except probably the MFY).  Some guys just don't thrive playing under the microscope of Red Sox baseball (see Renteria, Crawford), and I think the front office now looks for guys that will embrace/enjoy playing in the spotlight.
 

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gammoseditor

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benhogan said:
hmmm, maybe we should go after AJ Burnett then?  then again maybe not.
 
A year ago John Lackey was getting surgery.
 
Besides having to pitch in the AL East in a hitters park for half your games, I do believe there is an added 'pressure' in playing for the Red Sox over every other team in baseball (except probably the MFY).  Some guys just don't thrive playing under the microscope of Red Sox baseball (see Renteria, Crawford), and I think the front office now looks for guys that will embrace/enjoy playing in the spotlight.
 
Renteria had rumors of having a bad back his year in Boston.  He also got a game winning hit in the world series as a teenager.  Do you believe the pressure of the world series didn't affect him but playing in Boston did?  Why does Lackey get to use the injury excuse but Renteria does not?  I doubt people would be giving Lackey a pass if he didn't just have a great year on a World Series winning team. 
 
Crawford struggled with injuries too and wasn't exactly back to his old self in LA this year.  Baseball players are far more predictable than most like to admit and the "can't handle the pressure of playing in Boston" angle seems baseless.
 

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gammoseditor said:
 
Renteria had rumors of having a bad back his year in Boston.  He also got a game winning hit in the world series as a teenager.  Do you believe the pressure of the world series didn't affect him but playing in Boston did?  Why does Lackey get to use the injury excuse but Renteria does not?  I doubt people would be giving Lackey a pass if he didn't just have a great year on a World Series winning team. 
 
Crawford struggled with injuries too and wasn't exactly back to his old self in LA this year.  Baseball players are far more predictable than most like to admit and the "can't handle the pressure of playing in Boston" angle seems baseless.
 
I do agree that the difficulty of playing in Boston is probably more myth than fact.  Renteria besides his back issues also had issues with the IF, same as Beltre.  Pedroia once called it the worst IF in the majors. They replaced the IF after the 2010 season . Since it was redone Pedroias UZR has increased significantly (coincidence or not I don't know).  Crawford as you say was never healthy with Boston, the wrist bothered him most of 2011 and the elbow in 2012,  
 
For the most part, most MLB ball players grew up in the limelight as they were always the best player growing up though HS or college.  I suppose there are some players who have trouble with the attention like Zach Greinke is supposed to have,  but suspect they are more rare than players who like it.   The hardest thing for players in Boston is probably off the field. David Wells who played in the limelight in NY could not stand that he could not find a place to eat out in Boston w/o people recognizing him.  Its easier for players to go unnoticed in many other cities than Boston.
 
Renteria also had a tough act to follow. Nomar was a fan favorite and many fans had wanted the Red Sox to keep Orlando Cabrera after winning the World Series. I am not sure Kevin Millar helped him much at 1B either, he seemed to play better when Olerud was at 1B.
 
In any event, Lester has shown he can pitch in Boston.  I suspect pitching at Fenway is more of an issue with pitchers than position players, especially for LHP'ers.  He has been rather a bit of a mixed bag the last 2 years so I probably would like to see how his 2014 season turns out before committing to him for another 5 years at 20 million per, even if it costs a bit more money.  Remember Josh Beckett I say.
 

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Sampo Gida said:
 
I do agree that the difficulty of playing in Boston is probably more myth than fact.
 
If this is so, then why do I seem to recall Cherington saying lots of things, both before and during 2013, about prioritizing players who were up for the challenge of playing here? Seems like when he was asked about chemistry this was usually the point he focused on. Am I remembering wrong? Or was Ben telling a story that he thought would sell? Or is it that Ben really believes this, but he's deluding himself? (I don't mean to sound as if these possibilities are terribly unlikely; any of them could be true.)
 
EDIT: And BTW, even if this really is a factor we have no way of knowing how it has or hasn't affected Lester. Maybe Gammons is right and he is miserable; he tends to look miserable, but I've always assumed this is just part of his personality. Maybe he's a terrible fit for Boston and playing here has been holding him back--maybe if he'd been in Seattle or Kansas City all this time they'd already have his Cooperstown plaque on order. Until he plays somewhere else, it's anybody's guess.
 

curly2

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
You are making his point for him.
No, I'm saying I don't recall people saying Lackey didn't have the stones to pitch in Boston.
 

Sampo Gida

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
If this is so, then why do I seem to recall Cherington saying lots of things, both before and during 2013, about prioritizing players who were up for the challenge of playing here? Seems like when he was asked about chemistry this was usually the point he focused on. Am I remembering wrong? Or was Ben telling a story that he thought would sell? Or is it that Ben really believes this, but he's deluding himself? (I don't mean to sound as if these possibilities are terribly unlikely; any of them could be true.)
 
EDIT: And BTW, even if this really is a factor we have no way of knowing how it has or hasn't affected Lester. Maybe Gammons is right and he is miserable; he tends to look miserable, but I've always assumed this is just part of his personality. Maybe he's a terrible fit for Boston and playing here has been holding him back--maybe if he'd been in Seattle or Kansas City all this time they'd already have his Cooperstown plaque on order. Until he plays somewhere else, it's anybody's guess.
 
Can't answer for Ben, but pretty much every HR Director will tell you he is looking for employees up for the challenge of working for their company.  I did use the word "probably" since stuff like this is not provable either way.
 
Chemistry is likely another myth.  I mean, Lackey and Lester were part of the chicken and beer gang in 2011.  Papi was whining about being PH hit for by Lowell and looking for his lost RBI in recent years.  Ellsbury was called out by his teammates for not rehabbing with the team in 2010.   Yet these 4 were part of the nucleus for the team with great chemistry.  I think with winning comes good chemistry.  A good manager like Farrell helps.
 
As for Lester, I am not sure how player "happiness" correlates with performance, so not sure that how he does elsewhere proves anything.  Perhaps some players do better playing with an edge.  In any event, if the Red Sox chose not to resign Lester they probably have a good reason for doing so.  If they do resign him to something like 5/100 and Lester leaves money on the table, we can conclude Lester is happy with Boston (or just not confident he will have a great 2014) and the Red Sox feel pretty good about his future performance.
 

benhogan

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gammoseditor said:
 
Renteria had rumors of having a bad back his year in Boston.  He also got a game winning hit in the world series as a teenager.  Do you believe the pressure of the world series didn't affect him but playing in Boston did?  Why does Lackey get to use the injury excuse but Renteria does not?  I doubt people would be giving Lackey a pass if he didn't just have a great year on a World Series winning team. 
 
Crawford struggled with injuries too and wasn't exactly back to his old self in LA this year.  Baseball players are far more predictable than most like to admit and the "can't handle the pressure of playing in Boston" angle seems baseless.
I do recall Larussa saying, when we signed him, that Renteria would be a 'bad fit' in Boston.  Then there is this article where Renteria says the pressure of the Boston fans booing him got to him.
 
http://www.dailynewstranscript.com/sports/x970107078
 
Crawford did have a bunch of injuries here, but he sure looked completely out of his element playing for Boston.
 
I also believe the reverse can happen (Victorino this year), and when we find a guy that succeeds in Boston (Lester)  we should make a stronger attempt to retain them then fish around in free agency for a replacement player.
 

67WasBest

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Bruce Hurst spoke often of the move away from Boston being bad for his carfeer.  He felt the fan intensity gave him an edge he didn't get elsewhere..
 
David Ross talks often of being recognized while in public, and he seems to relish that recognition; but there have been hundreds of players that spoke of the intrusion of the fans in their private life.
 
In his intervies with Alex Speier, last February 12, BC said the following:
 
"We're not going to build it back up in a vacuum or in a quiet room somewhere where no one's paying attention," said Cherington. "It's going to be done in Boston where people care and there's going to be attention. We know it's not going to be a straight line. We know that there are going to be good days and bad days. Although John Farrell promised me he wouldn't, we're going to lose three in a row sometime probably.
"We need, in addition to talent, the comfort to know there are some people in that clubhouse who are tough enough to get through that time and hang on what we're trying to do for the long term, show up the next day and get ready to go back to work. We're not trying to build a clubhouse of guys who sing together after the game.
"It was not about that. It was really just a recognition that doing this in Boston is not like doing it in other places. The people who are involved in helping us build this the right way are going to have to go through some adversity in order to get to the good times, and they know that the good times in Boston are really good."
 
These items speak to the difference in playing Boston versus anywhere else.,  It's real and is something that must have consideration when recruiting talent.
 

jimbobim

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I think the "Can he play in Boston question " is more of a "Can he handle a big market with lots of media?". Though more specifically Boston Journos and talk radio hosts like it or not (I tend to hate it) tend to obsess over the AAV or overall compensation of a contract and if the player slumps or acknowledges the pressure of increased expectations or attention it immediately becomes a story or angle to talk about incessantly. 
 
Crawford, Gonzo, JD Drew, Lackey until last years turn around all infuriated the local press because they were paid top dollar and consistently failed to even come close to expected production. 
 
Bottom Line is winning in Boston equates to rockstar status while losing can be more annoying then other cities because of the sheer amount of people they have covering and writing about the team parsing body language and words which just doesn't happen in small markets. 
 

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JD Drew consistently failed to even come close to expected production?  He had OPS's of .796 .927 .914 .793 in his 4 healthy seasons which translated to wRC+'s of 107, 142, 135 and 110 all while providing some of the best defense in right field in the majors.  To put that into context, he was 14th in the majors in 2007, 2nd in 2008, 2nd in 2009 and 15th in 2010.  For two of those 4 years he was arguably the best right fielder in the game.  In the other two, he was a comfortably above average bat who still provided excellent defense.
 
The only year of his 5 year contract in which he did not provide significant positive value was 2011 in which he only played 81 games due to injuries.  He's been retired for two full seasons now.  Can we please drop the unfounded JD Drew hate?
 
Edit: I'm not even going to bother going through the problems with including Gonzalez in this list.
 

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
JD Drew consistently failed to even come close to expected production?  He had OPS's of .796 .927 .914 .793 in his 4 healthy seasons which translated to wRC+'s of 107, 142, 135 and 110 all while providing some of the best defense in right field in the majors.  To put that into context, he was 14th in the majors in 2007, 2nd in 2008, 2nd in 2009 and 15th in 2010.  For two of those 4 years he was arguably the best right fielder in the game.  In the other two, he was a comfortably above average bat who still provided excellent defense.
 
The only year of his 5 year contract in which he did not provide significant positive value was 2011 in which he only played 81 games due to injuries.  He's been retired for two full seasons now.  Can we please drop the unfounded JD Drew hate?
 
Edit: I'm not even going to bother going through the problems with including Gonzalez in this list.
 
Pretty sure the comment was about general fan/media reaction to those players, not necessarily whether they deserved it or not.  Realistic and fair or not, all of those players needed Trout-level production with a Pedroia-type personality to get the media (and consequently the average talk radio caller level fans) to admit they were worth their contract.
 

curly2

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I think it's revisionist history in the case of Gonzalez. Adrian Gonzalez is the complete opposite of a Pedroia-like personality, but I think pretty much everyone, fans, media and talk-radio callers, loved the trade (and contrary to what was said in another thread, no one complained he was going to block Lars Anderson).
 
And on Sept. 1, 2011, fans, media and talk-radio callers loved Gonzalez and he was playing great and the Sox were in first place. If the Sox hadn't collapsed in September, the Gonzo love affair would have continued. Red Sox fans do like their share of quieter type, like Bill Mueller.
 
The stink of September 2011 and the Valentine debacle on 2012 stained pretty much everyone who hadn't won a World Series with the Sox, plus Lester and Beckett who had won but were caught up in beer and chickengate.
 

jimbobim

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Pretty sure the comment was about general fan/media reaction to those players, not necessarily whether they deserved it or not.  Realistic and fair or not, all of those players needed Trout-level production with a Pedroia-type personality to get the media (and consequently the average talk radio caller level fans) to admit they were worth their contract.
 
That was exactly what the comment was about considering the last 5 or so comments were concerned with personality/makeup and whether  "playing in boston" was actually a factor or more myth. For the record I think the Red Sox are a big market team and if they want to hand someone a big contract the better for me cause I probably get to watch a player who has a better track record of performance. I was sad Gonzo was the price the team had to pay to dump CC's and Becketts dollars though it obviously turned out excellently. 
 

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jimbobim said:
Pretty sure the comment was about general fan/media reaction to those players, not necessarily whether they deserved it or not.  Realistic and fair or not, all of those players needed Trout-level production with a Pedroia-type personality to get the media (and consequently the average talk radio caller level fans) to admit they were worth their contract.
 
That was exactly what the comment was about considering the last 5 or so comments were concerned with personality/makeup and whether  "playing in boston" was actually a factor or more myth. For the record I think the Red Sox are a big market team and if they want to hand someone a big contract the better for me cause I probably get to watch a player who has a better track record of performance. I was sad Gonzo was the price the team had to pay to dump CC's and Becketts dollars though it obviously turned out excellently. 
 
Yeah, I'm going to go with no.
 
The question of whether someone can play in Boston relates to how well they play in Boston relative to how well they play elsewhere, not whether the idiots in the stands and press box think they're worth their salary.
 

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Rasputin said:
 
The question of whether someone can play in Boston relates to how well they play in Boston relative to how well they play elsewhere, not whether the idiots in the stands and press box think they're worth their salary.
 
On what grounds are you assuming that the two bolded phrases are alternatives rather than correlatives?
 

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
On what grounds are you assuming that the two bolded phrases are alternatives rather than correlatives?
 
On what grounds are you assuming that I am assuming anything?
 
My point was quite simple. If you want to determine whether "they can't play in Boston" is a real thing, the way to do it isn't to look at whether fans and media people think the player is worth their salary.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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You said "relates to," not "is measured by." Of course "whether the idiots, etc." is not how you determine whether a player has trouble playing in Boston; you do that by looking at the record, as always. But it could easily be one of the reasons why some players have that trouble.
 
In short, saying "X relates to Y, not Z" is illogical if Z can be a cause of Y.
 

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Savin Hillbilly said:
You said "relates to," not "is measured by." Of course "whether the idiots, etc." is not how you determine whether a player has trouble playing in Boston; you do that by looking at the record, as always. But it could easily be one of the reasons why some players have that trouble.
 
In short, saying "X relates to Y, not Z" is illogical if Z can be a cause of Y.
Fair enough. I'm not convinced it's a real effect.
 

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Would signing Lester sooner rather than later have the desired indirect consequence of pressuring the Yankees to overpay for overrated (Garza) or unproven (Tanaka) pitching before next season starts?  Paying Lester full price ($24 million per year) for no more than 5 years ($120 million commitment) would be worth it if it makes the Yankees exceed the $189 million luxury tax limit in 2014.  If Lester's extension kicks in starting in 2015, they wouldn't need to dump any salary (though they will want to do this to have stretch run flexibility if they are contenders again next season).  A hometown discount is nice but watching the Yankees pay up to 40% more on every dollar than the Sox will spend by staying under the limit (which is more of an imperative for this franchise) could condemn the former Bronx bombers to relative mediocrity (competitive but not championship seasons) for quite a while.
 

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The Boomer said:
Would signing Lester sooner rather than later have the desired indirect consequence of pressuring the Yankees to overpay for overrated (Garza) or unproven (Tanaka) pitching before next season starts?  Paying Lester full price ($24 million per year) for no more than 5 years ($120 million commitment) would be worth it if it makes the Yankees exceed the $189 million luxury tax limit in 2014.  If Lester's extension kicks in starting in 2015, they wouldn't need to dump any salary (though they will want to do this to have stretch run flexibility if they are contenders again next season).  A hometown discount is nice but watching the Yankees pay up to 40% more on every dollar than the Sox will spend by staying under the limit (which is more of an imperative for this franchise) could condemn the former Bronx bombers to relative mediocrity (competitive but not championship seasons) for quite a while.
 
Even if they come to an agreement with Lester on an extension, the earliest they will announce and sign it will be the day after Opening Day.  They'd do that primarily so Lester's 2014 cap figure remains at its current $9.37M rather than jump to roughly $22M if they signed him to your hypothetical extension before Opening Day.  I'm not sure what impact, if any at all, such an extension would have on Yankee spending between now and then.
 

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The Boomer said:
Would signing Lester sooner rather than later have the desired indirect consequence of pressuring the Yankees to overpay for overrated (Garza) or unproven (Tanaka) pitching before next season starts?  Paying Lester full price ($24 million per year) for no more than 5 years ($120 million commitment) would be worth it if it makes the Yankees exceed the $189 million luxury tax limit in 2014.  If Lester's extension kicks in starting in 2015, they wouldn't need to dump any salary (though they will want to do this to have stretch run flexibility if they are contenders again next season).  A hometown discount is nice but watching the Yankees pay up to 40% more on every dollar than the Sox will spend by staying under the limit (which is more of an imperative for this franchise) could condemn the former Bronx bombers to relative mediocrity (competitive but not championship seasons) for quite a while.
Are you suggesting that the Yankees are holding a place in their plans for Lester? No doubt they'd love to have him, but a) there's so much beyond their control between now and then (assuming they're not quietly tampering); and b) do the Yankees still make and execute plans?
 

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The Boomer said:
Would signing Lester sooner rather than later have the desired indirect consequence of pressuring the Yankees to overpay for overrated (Garza) or unproven (Tanaka) pitching before next season starts? 
 
 
 
I doubt it; the Yankees aren't going to make plans based on what the Red Sox do with Lester.  Even if the Red Sox don't extend Lester now, the Yankees know the Red Sox have the resources to extend him prior to free agency.
 
Moreover, I'm assuming the Yankees see H.Bailey as a more attractive FA option than Lester--he is younger and he doesn't have a declining K rate over the last three seasons whereas Lester does.  The Yankees probably like Masterson too.
 
I would like to see how Lester pitches in 2014 before making a decision on him.  Specifically, has Lester's declining K rate stabilized?  Has he learned to pitch better with a less-than-spectacular K rate?  I suppose we will never see the 2009-2010 Jon Lester ever again.  As such, it is important that the Red Sox don't pay Lester at his 2009-2010 performance level.
 

jimbobim

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He's not going to get six years from the Red Sox because he's 31 but 24 AAV could be around the right number. 
 

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MacPherson goes all Dave Cameron on a possible Lester extension:
 
Plugging Lester into the formula, the Red Sox could come to terms with Lester on a four-year deal worth $83.3 million or a five-year deal worth $97.8 million.
Here's how it would break down:
* Lester was worth 4.3 fWAR a year ago and is projected by ZIPS to be worth 3.8 WAR this year. For the sake of simplicity, we averaged that out to an even 4 WAR;
* At $6 million per win, Lester would be worth $24 million in 2014;
* At $6.3 million per win, with a half-win decline, he'd be worth $22.05 million in 2015;
* At $6.62 million per win, he'd be worth $19.85 million in 2016;
* And so on.
 
 
http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20140117-projecting-a-jon-lester-extension.ece
 

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I meant the AAV of $22 million. But if the Sox balk and let him test the market, his floor is probably 5-7 years at $22 million per, and he probably gets it, and more.  
 

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Morning Woodhead said:
Gordon Edes ‏@GordonEdes 3m
Lester says he wants to be with Sox until someone "tears this jersey off me"
 
Gordon Edes ‏@GordonEdes 2m
Lester says he not only expects he will have to take a discount to stay, he's willing to do so''
 
Its a weird time we live in, where a borderline #1 pitcher's "discounted" price may be around 20 mil a season. 
 
Did anybody think he'd be worth anything close to that last June?
 

Manramsclan

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Morning Woodhead said:
Gordon Edes ‏@GordonEdes 3m
Lester says he wants to be with Sox until someone "tears this jersey off me"
 
Gordon Edes ‏@GordonEdes 2m
Lester says he not only expects he will have to take a discount to stay, he's willing to do so''
 
 
soxhop411 said:
 
Scott Lauber ‏@ScottLauber19m
More from Lester on possible extension: "I understand you're going to take a discount to stay. Do I want to do that? Absolutely." #RedSox
 
Ricky Doyle ‏@TheRickyDoyle47m
Lester said he'd prefer to have contract extension done before end of spring training, although two sides haven't begun negotiations yet.
 
 
This is absolutely fap worthy.  
 
What is a discount though? 5 years @ $20M? 
 

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[quote name="Manramsclan" post="5228139" timestamp="...
 
What is a discount though? 5 years @ $20M? [/quote]
Yes. He's the one who mentioned Pedroia. Compare Pedey to Cano and translate that to Tanaka/Lester. Maybe you add an option year, but 5/100 is enough to keep Lester and his kid happy.
 

The Boomer

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There is something to be said for the Red Sox becoming a desirable organization where good players want to come for generous but not necessarily top dollars.  Spending virtually an entire career or settling down in one place where you are revered is priceless to exactly the kind of players both the organization and the fans want.  Somewhere close to or at Hamels money is more than fair for everyone.  Hamels had the 5th highest pitcher contract in history before this winter.  If you believe that the market rose to past what he received ($24 million per season) than something at or under that might be what someone means by taking a discount.  The inflation for free agent pitchers was getting out of hand but Milwaukee committing to only $52 million for Garza (for 4 years) might restore a little sanity to the market.  The pre-signing Tanaka rumor of 6 years for $120 million sounds like a ceiling.  The proposed 5 years for $20 million (perhaps with an option for a 6th year) sounds much better.  Anything under that, and the Sox will truly get a discount.
 

jimbobim

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Fangraphs and Macphereson both projected about 5/6 years 100-120 million. 
 
I'd be very satisfied with that especially because Farrell seems to know how to get him peaking and consistent for long stretches and in the postseason. 
 

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Lester said he not only expects to have to take a discount in order to sign an extension with the team, but he is willing to do so.
 
 
Somewhere, an agent weeps.
 

rembrat

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So now does Cherington not call them for a few weeks, you know, so it seems like he is playing it cool? 
 

gixer1k

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The best part of this is how much it will piss off the MFY's and their fans.
 
Way to go Lester.
 
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