Explainer Video: How Deflategate got it wrong

[shepard50]

What if we made a short animated video that explained succinctly the media turned a nothing into a something, and how this is a pattern that plays out all the time? Could we get the message out? Could we make it go viral? 
 
One of the things my company does is make small "explainer videos". Short, animated and voiced over videos that explain stuff. 

• No more than 140 words (would yield a ~ 60 second script, The more you want it to travel the more succinct you have to be)
• Some explainer-type Motion Stories:
  Sonoran Institute
• Chick-fil-A

Could we, as a crowd, source a 140 word (we would animate this off the clock so it needs to be short) script in the next twenty four hours that gives the clearest picture of what just happened. I think it needs to be non-partisan and focus on making the facts clear.

• Guidance:
  An explainer video is meant to boil down a complex concept into layman's terms so that anyone can understand the important facts, messages, and context. It's helpful to have an introduction that lays the groundwork on the topic and presents the question at hand, then the facts and key messages, and then a closing that sums it all up and helps the viewer absorb the "so what?" Shoot for shorter sentences with a casual, conversational tone - this works well in a narrated video.

 
I was going to do this myself. I am pretty sure it will be better with the collective insight and smarts of SoSH. Anyone interested?

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Yes. This is fucking awesome.

 

[jacklamabe65]

A gift from heaven.

 

[Devizier]

Would anyone on SOSH volunteer to be Paddy Hirsch with the whiteboard?
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdEI6PkGZK8

 

[crystalline]

If you want to focus on science:

"Air pressure always depends on temperature. A ball inside at 70F loses 1.5 PSI when moved outside to 20F [show ideal gas law calculations with abs pressure and kelvin clearly labeled]. During the Colts game, sources said balls dropped up to 2 psi. Belichick did tests: Moving the balls outside explained 1.5 PSI of the drop. Also, NFL rules allow footballs' texture to be prepared by rubbing. For example the Giants use an electric spin wheel [show Giants clip/pic]. Rubbing creates friction and can raise the ball's temperature. In Belichick's tests, rubbing could add 0.5 PSI. Therefore, by completely complying with the rules, the Patriots balls could drop 2 psi. How? First, equipment managers rubbed the footballs and inflated them then to 12.5 PSI. Sitting in the locker room they dropped to 12.0 PSI. Then, when the refs took them outside for the game, they dropped another 1.5 PSI. This would be completely within the rules.

Go Patriots - on to Seattle!"

 

[mwonow]

Yes - this IS fucking awesome!
 
There are a bunch of different ways you could go with this. A straightforward explanation regarding footballs and air pressure (like crystalline's) would address the current 'controversy' directly. 
 
Personally, at first blush, I'd like to focus on impact: for example, defining rules as having different intentions, and then positioning ball inflation as one that isn't central to the play of the game - but that's REALLY hard to do in 140 words. Heck, I cut as much as I left to get to 384 here:
 
"NFL rules exist for many reasons. Some govern the play of the game, and are important to making sure that the best team wins - for example, a guard can't hold a linebacker to prevent him from making a tackle, and a defensive back can't stop a receiver from running a route. Some rules, like the salary cap, protect competitive balance within the league. Other rules just make sure that there is consistency from game to game. These include rules that are easy to spot, like making sure that the field is 100 yards long and that the goalposts are 10' high. It includes rules that are less obvious, like the fact that the ribbon hanging from a goal post has to be 42 inches long. And some rules govern individual preferences, like the ones about uniforms.
 
Together, the rules allow us to enjoy the NFL: the players pass and run and block and tackle while the referees enforce the most important rules - and occasionally, the less-important ones around issues like the color of a player's cleats or an endzone celebration.
 
Recently, there has been a great deal of attention paid to football inflation - and a great deal of confusion about its impact. Each team supplies balls for each game; each quarterback has his own idea about how those balls should feel. But footballs aren't like baseballs, where some moisture here or a rough edge there affects the play of the game. Before each play, the referee handles the ball and makes sure that it is ready for the next play; if it isn't satisfactory, the referee tosses it out and puts a new one down on the field. 
 
Football air pressure is important the same way that the six-foot wide stripe around the field is: it provides a consistency standard, but it doesn't affect what happens when the ball is snapped and the players play.
 
The Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots both earned a trip to the Super Bowl in the same way: they beat all comers in their conferences. The title game should be one for the ages. Let's focus on whether Sherman can stop Brady, or whether Beast Mode can run past Big Vince - and leave the 'little things' in the rule book where they belong.  

 

[Section15Box113]

Love it.

Would we consider a short version focused on the science and a longer version with the broader context? Kind of like the 60-second spot and the extended web-only version?

Either way, I think we need to devote time to the science along the lines of what crystalline laid out.

We may want to explicitly note that the team presents the balls to the officials to be tested after the "equipment managers rubbed the footballs and inflated them then to 12.5 PSI." Would also want to clarify that the drop to 12.0 PSI as they sit in the locker room is within the rules.

Do we have any irreproachable physics professors who can work the whiteboard?

 

[soxfanSJCA]

This is a great idea.
 
On the social science front:
The media turned nothing into something by:

1. Reporting on rumors which were presented as credible "leaks" from "insiders"
2. Not researching any single aspect of the rumored claims for themselves
3. Assembling panels of people with the highest order of conflicting interests
4. Incessantly repeating and sensationalizing 1-3 without accepting any new information not consistent with the initial rumor

I don't believe any of the leaks at this time, so a week into this and still not a single shred of data official released from the NFL.
The NFL did state they had been made aware of footballs which were out of specification, but did not provide enough (i suspect purposely) to derive any rebuttal
I know you know this, i am just summarizing why people are lapping up the media storm.
 
On the physical science front, here are some candidates:
 
1. The NFL specification of 13PSI +/- 0.5 PSI is meaningless without precisely defined testing conditions and testing procedures (temperature/accurate gauges with periodic calibratiosn/record keeping)
2. Pressure and temperature have a well established dependency- Explain why temperature would change the pressure of a football
3. Weather conditions and contaminants on the ball almost certainly have a greater impact than 1-2 PSI
4. Texturing of the football impacts the balls grip and wetting capability, which could provide more performance enhancement or less than 1-2 PSI difference
5. 2 PSI difference is not easy to determine, and if double blind tests are performed the probability that 2 PSI delta could be detected is astoundingly improbable
 
I like how the Khan academy presents tutorials as opposed to the teacher being part of the story.
A pen tablet in different colors moves a plot along nicely.
 
As you point out, the duration is indeed critical- too long and the message is lost 
Obviously, i can not do this for I would  need/take 16 hours and it would look like that post of that CNN transcript on the mega thread...
 
There is a lot of content already on youtube, but nothing that quickly or definitively shows the interactions of temperature/pressure/volume especially in respect to a football
Please note: People with science acumen will want to see or be able to access data and test conditions (and will scrutinize it and attack it on principle)
 
 
 

 

[Leskanic's Thread]

Agree that this is a great idea. I sort of see the need for three videos:
 
1. The science (as previously discussed)
 
2. The impact on the game (discussing the way footballs are prepped, why having deflated footballs is not an advantage, is not the reason for the Patriots' stellar performance over the last 13 years)
 
3. The media/social controversy and how it snowballed and hijacked the national discourse
 
Three shorter videos, and one that runs them all together.  I would gladly help the writing, though I think there are people here who have more inherent knowledge about one or all of these topics.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

If be happy to help. One thing that would be worth nailing down is why the inflation rule was instituted in the first place. I'm assuming that it was for the reasons suggested above (consistency), but we should find a source (maybe I missed that in the mega thread). I am willing to take that on.

 

[75cent bleacher seat]

The potential inaccuracy of the gauges used needs to be brought into question.

 

[Stevie1der]

This sounds like a cool idea, I think the most important part of this is that it should not have any pro-Patriot slant to it that would make it appear defensive or biased.  Stick to the facts and the science and the unanswered questions.

 

[StupendousMan]

In case it helps, I'm a professor of physics at an institution NOT around Boston, so perhaps free from implicit bias. I have some experience explaining concepts in a simple way; ask those who attended the Saber Seminar a few years ago about the whiffle-ball talk.

Let me know what I can do, if anything.

 

[Section15Box113]

Another thought, though this might be a separate project or a separate video.

In Belichick's press conference, it sounded like he was going to make the details of their internal experiments available to the press so people could try to verify the Patriots' results.

Has anyone seen this information laid out anywhere?

It might be interesting to get it either from the team or from a member of the press and attempt to replicate their processes.

 

[Section15Box113]

This sounds like a cool idea, I think the most important part of this is that it should not have any pro-Patriot slant to it that would make it appear defensive or biased.  Stick to the facts and the science and the unanswered questions.

And completely agree with this.

 

[Monbo Jumbo]

Good idea.
 
But what's needed is a video showing pressure rising in a football that's being rubbed with an electric buffer. That's the part of the story people are having trouble grasping. And that's the part of the ball prep that likely sets the Patriots apart from other teams that weren't as creative in exploiting the rules. 

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

Yes - this IS fucking awesome!
 
There are a bunch of different ways you could go with this. A straightforward explanation regarding footballs and air pressure (like crystalline's) would address the current 'controversy' directly. 
 
Personally, at first blush, I'd like to focus on impact: for example, defining rules as having different intentions, and then positioning ball inflation as one that isn't central to the play of the game - but that's REALLY hard to do in 140 words. Heck, I cut as much as I left to get to 384 here:
 
"NFL rules exist for many reasons. Some govern the play of the game, and are important to making sure that the best team wins - for example, a guard can't hold a linebacker to prevent him from making a tackle, and a defensive back can't stop a receiver from running a route. Some rules, like the salary cap, protect competitive balance within the league. Other rules just make sure that there is consistency from game to game. These include rules that are easy to spot, like making sure that the field is 100 yards long and that the goalposts are 10' high. It includes rules that are less obvious, like the fact that the ribbon hanging from a goal post has to be 42 inches long. And some rules govern individual preferences, like the ones about uniforms.
 
Together, the rules allow us to enjoy the NFL: the players pass and run and block and tackle while the referees enforce the most important rules - and occasionally, the less-important ones around issues like the color of a player's cleats or an endzone celebration.
 
Recently, there has been a great deal of attention paid to football inflation - and a great deal of confusion about its impact. Each team supplies balls for each game; each quarterback has his own idea about how those balls should feel. But footballs aren't like baseballs, where some moisture here or a rough edge there affects the play of the game. Before each play, the referee handles the ball and makes sure that it is ready for the next play; if it isn't satisfactory, the referee tosses it out and puts a new one down on the field. 
 
Football air pressure is important the same way that the six-foot wide stripe around the field is: it provides a consistency standard, but it doesn't affect what happens when the ball is snapped and the players play.
 
The Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots both earned a trip to the Super Bowl in the same way: they beat all comers in their conferences. The title game should be one for the ages. Let's focus on whether Sherman can stop Brady, or whether Beast Mode can run past Big Vince - and leave the 'little things' in the rule book where they belong.  

 
Though I agree with this writeup this is the type of thing I think we should stay away from. I've heard many, many people say that they don't care about if the deflated balls helped them or not. It's about if they actually broke a rule, and integrity of the game. In other words they're cheaters.
 
I think this video should prove why they're innocent (and to a lesser extent the media's handling of the whole situation with no real facts), not 'what may have happened didn't really matter anyways.' 

 

[shepard50]

If you want to focus on science:

"Air pressure always depends on temperature. A ball inside at 70F loses 1.5 PSI when moved outside to 20F [show ideal gas law calculations with abs pressure and kelvin clearly labeled]. During the Colts game, sources said balls dropped up to 2 psi. Belichick did tests: Moving the balls outside explained 1.5 PSI of the drop. Also, NFL rules allow footballs' texture to be prepared by rubbing. For example the Giants use an electric spin wheel [show Giants clip/pic]. Rubbing creates friction and can raise the ball's temperature. In Belichick's tests, rubbing could add 0.5 PSI. Therefore, by completely complying with the rules, the Patriots balls could drop 2 psi. How? First, equipment managers rubbed the footballs and inflated them then to 12.5 PSI. Sitting in the locker room they dropped to 12.0 PSI. Then, when the refs took them outside for the game, they dropped another 1.5 PSI. This would be completely within the rules.

Go Patriots - on to Seattle!"

This is great. I don't understand the bold part though.
 

This is a great idea.
 
On the social science front:
The media turned nothing into something by:

1. Reporting on rumors which were presented as credible "leaks" from "insiders"
2. Not researching any single aspect of the rumored claims for themselves
3. Assembling panels of people with the highest order of conflicting interests
4. Incessantly repeating and sensationalizing 1-3 without accepting any new information not consistent with the initial rumor

I don't believe any of the leaks at this time, so a week into this and still not a single shred of data official released from the NFL.
The NFL did state they had been made aware of footballs which were out of specification, but did not provide enough (i suspect purposely) to derive any rebuttal
I know you know this, i am just summarizing why people are lapping up the media storm.
 
On the physical science front, here are some candidates:
 
1. The NFL specification of 13PSI +/- 0.5 PSI is meaningless without precisely defined testing conditions and testing procedures (temperature/accurate gauges with periodic calibratiosn/record keeping)
2. Pressure and temperature have a well established dependency- Explain why temperature would change the pressure of a football
3. Weather conditions and contaminants on the ball almost certainly have a greater impact than 1-2 PSI
4. Texturing of the football impacts the balls grip and wetting capability, which could provide more performance enhancement or less than 1-2 PSI difference
5. 2 PSI difference is not easy to determine, and if double blind tests are performed the probability that 2 PSI delta could be detected is astoundingly improbable
 
I like how the Khan academy presents tutorials as opposed to the teacher being part of the story.
A pen tablet in different colors moves a plot along nicely.
 
As you point out, the duration is indeed critical- too long and the message is lost 
Obviously, i can not do this for I would  need/take 16 hours and it would look like that post of that CNN transcript on the mega thread...
 
There is a lot of content already on youtube, but nothing that quickly or definitively shows the interactions of temperature/pressure/volume especially in respect to a football
Please note: People with science acumen will want to see or be able to access data and test conditions (and will scrutinize it and attack it on principle)
 
 
 

 
This is a great start on the social science front - how do we call it something simpler than social science?

Agree that this is a great idea. I sort of see the need for three videos:
 
1. The science (as previously discussed)
 
2. The impact on the game (discussing the way footballs are prepped, why having deflated footballs is not an advantage, is not the reason for the Patriots' stellar performance over the last 13 years)
 
3. The media/social controversy and how it snowballed and hijacked the national discourse
 
Three shorter videos, and one that runs them all together.  I would gladly help the writing, though I think there are people here who have more inherent knowledge about one or all of these topics.

The need is surely there for three videos. However, we can probably only pull one one minute video off before the Superbowl. Working with clients, it is usually 6 weeks to produce a two to three minute video. Granted we are working many at a time, but the cycles of iteration are really useful,  and we just don't have the time or the team for this one. So I think we have to tackle all three of your points in one minute!
 

This sounds like a cool idea, I think the most important part of this is that it should not have any pro-Patriot slant to it that would make it appear defensive or biased.  Stick to the facts and the science and the unanswered questions.

 
Absolutely. This is not a about a Patriots response. This is about objectively looking at how we got where we are, how where we are is completely random, and that this can and does happen all the time outside of sports as well (at least, I think that's what I am hearing)

In case it helps, I'm a professor of physics at an institution NOT around Boston, so perhaps free from implicit bias. I have some experience explaining concepts in a simple way; ask those who attended the Saber Seminar a few years ago about the whiffle-ball talk.

Let me know what I can do, if anything.

It would be awesome to know what you would put your name to in terms of the science that is already listed/or key but missing form this page. The Buffing point Monbo makes below seems to be key. So, "Physics Professor Stupendous Man explains that pressure can be increased by half a pound PSI by blah blah blah..." Is that what you are offering?
 
 

Good idea.
 
But what's needed is a video showing pressure rising in a football that's being rubbed with an electric buffer. That's the part of the story people are having trouble grasping. And that's the part of the ball prep that likely sets the Patriots apart from other teams that weren't as creative in exploiting the rules. 

Cool. But it's all animation. Does that still work for you, with a voice over explaining the physics?
 
There is great stuff here. I'll speak with our creative director this morning and see what the best way to converge this into a simple script would be from here. This is AWESOME stuff, thank you and feel free to keep it coming.

 

[shepard50]

 
Though I agree with this writeup this is the type of thing I think we should stay away from. I've heard many, many people say that they don't care about if the deflated balls helped them or not. It's about if they actually broke a rule, and integrity of the game. In other words they're cheaters.
 
I think this video should prove why they're innocent (and to a lesser extent the media's handling of the whole situation with no real facts), not 'what may have happened didn't really matter anyways.' 

 
I think it's: The media's handling of the situation with no real facts, the facts as we know them, make your own inference about innocence.
 
If it reads like an ad for innocence we will have failed.

 

[shepard50]

So, our creative director has read the thread and here is the proposed structure:
 
Much of the media is often not about facts, it's about hype and entertainment. Deflategate is an example of this
 
Proposed Story Structure: 
 

1. What are the facts, the actual facts of the situation?
2. In the absence of facts, the media and the public in general tend to start making things up. In this particular scandal, what assumptions, speculations, and rumors began to emerge in leu of facts?
3. Given how this scandal has unfolded over the last week, what does it seem to say about the American media and the public at large? What have both entities (media and public) done right and what have they done wrong?

 

[soxfanSJCA]

To prove the Patriots are innocent without any information from the NFL in a manner
that will hold true despite any new and official information or data revealed leads
one to the most important point in the first place:
 
 "Any measurement you make without knowledge of its uncertainty is completely meaningless" Walter Lewin
 
The NFL has not given any indication that it understood the rigors needed to accurately and repeatedly measure and control 13PSI +/-  0.5 PSI 
 
I have not heard any indication of control charts, temperature and elevation readings, gauge calibration history/annual calibrations,
Out Of Control Actions Plans, written procedures for measuring, recording and controlling football pressures.
 
This may seem silly, or too detailed or even boring, but it is the very tip of the spear.
This is where the accusation falls apart.
 
The NFL could not possibly have adequate controls of football pressure within a specification without having a system in place that would have caught it and rectified it before it could influence a game 
I beseech anyone to read the above sentence again and again and until it sinks in, for it is the very end of this issue.
 
If the NFL really cared about pressure, it would have already had written procedures, control charts, defined test conditions, measurements done every game beforehand, and a history of out of compliance footballs

 

[Reverend]

This is a great start on the social science front - how do we call it something simpler than social science?

 
Hi.
 
You just mention the news cycle and refer to this as "demand driven 'news'--news is generated not by what is true, but by what there is a demand for," or something to that effect.
 
In this vein, there absolutely should be the example of journalists confusing the psi issue for the weight of the ball and then show a slip of people doing a shot put or a hammer throw. In that way, it can be illustrated in substantive form that journalists were pumping out nonsense in a concrete way that only takes like 4 seconds.
 
That people were actually talking as though a football weighed 13 pounds should have been a clear indicator that people were talking nonsense. But it wasn't. That's provocative.

 

[Reverend]

 
So, our creative director has read the thread and here is the proposed structure:
 
Much of the media is often not about facts, it's about hype and entertainment. Deflategate is an example of this
 
Proposed Story Structure: 
 

1. What are the facts, the actual facts of the situation?
2. In the absence of facts, the media and the public in general tend to start making things up. In this particular scandal, what assumptions, speculations, and rumors began to emerge in leu of facts?
3. Given how this scandal has unfolded over the last week, what does it seem to say about the American media and the public at large? What have both entities (media and public) done right and what have they done wrong?

 

 
I posted before reading the whole thread, which I usually advocate not doing.
 
I like this creative director guy--Indeed, I've already posted what I think is a solid way of presenting some of #2 and #3, and I have other thoughts on it. As I said to OnWisc and some others the other day, if the American public pursued all social issues with such zeal, the biggest social problem we'd face is how long the traffic light on 2nd Avenue and 86th Street in Manhattan should stay red.
 
PM me if if you can use me--as you know, I love this stuff.

 

[CoRP]

How is it again that the Colts' balls maintained their pressure but the Pats' balls didn't? I missed that part.

 

[BroodsSexton]

It would be cool to include a demonstrative that shows the "ecosystem" of a rumor, from the first tweet, to sportsmedia, to The View and The Post, with highlights of how the story has mutated to become a public trope. 

 

[swingin val]

If you want to focus on science:

"Air pressure always depends on temperature. A ball inside at 70F loses 1.5 PSI when moved outside to 20F [show ideal gas law calculations with abs pressure and kelvin clearly labeled]. During the Colts game, sources said balls dropped up to 2 psi. Belichick did tests: Moving the balls outside explained 1.5 PSI of the drop.

If we are to focus on science, make sure to use the correct outside temperature. It was not 20 degrees.

 

[Monbo Jumbo]

How is it again that the Colts' balls maintained their pressure but the Pats' balls didn't? I missed that part.

 
"Ay, there's the rub"
 
literally

 

[ifmanis5]

It was the Tri-Delts who snuck in and deflated our balls. We'll get 'em back for the formal, though.

 

[75cent bleacher seat]

To prove the Patriots are innocent without any information from the NFL in a manner
that will hold true despite any new and official information or data revealed leads
one to the most important point in the first place:
 
 "Any measurement you make without knowledge of its uncertainty is completely meaningless" Walter Lewin
 
The NFL has not given any indication that it understood the rigors needed to accurately and repeatedly measure and control 13PSI +/-  0.5 PSI 
 
I have not heard any indication of control charts, temperature and elevation readings, gauge calibration history/annual calibrations,
Out Of Control Actions Plans, written procedures for measuring, recording and controlling football pressures.
 
This may seem silly, or too detailed or even boring, but it is the very tip of the spear.
This is where the accusation falls apart.
 
The NFL could not possibly have adequate controls of football pressure within a specification without having a system in place that would have caught it and rectified it before it could influence a game 
I beseech anyone to read the above sentence again and again and until it sinks in, for it is the very end of this issue.
 
If the NFL really cared about pressure, it would have already had written procedures, control charts, defined test conditions, measurements done every game beforehand, and a history of out of compliance footballs

 
This....

 

[Al Zarilla]

If you want to focus on science:

"Air pressure always depends on temperature. A ball inside at 70F loses 1.5 PSI when moved outside to 20F [show ideal gas law calculations with abs pressure and kelvin clearly labeled]. During the Colts game, sources said balls dropped up to 2 psi. Belichick did tests: Moving the balls outside explained 1.5 PSI of the drop. Also, NFL rules allow footballs' texture to be prepared by rubbing. For example the Giants use an electric spin wheel [show Giants clip/pic]. Rubbing creates friction and can raise the ball's temperature. In Belichick's tests, rubbing could add 0.5 PSI. Therefore, by completely complying with the rules, the Patriots balls could drop 2 psi. How? First, equipment managers rubbed the footballs and inflated them then to 12.5 PSI. Sitting in the locker room they dropped to 12.0 PSI. Then, when the refs took them outside for the game, they dropped another 1.5 PSI. This would be completely within the rules.

Go Patriots - on to Seattle!"

I think you'd have to keep it extremely simple, without equations, like Belichick did. Reason I say that is that most people don't want to be bothered with anything technical even about things that are really important to them, like electricity. All they want to know is whether an outlet is "hot" or not, or if a lightbulb is burned out. Most people would run with horror from E=IR, or getting away from electricity, F=MA. So, my opinion is that what Bill did is "it". You could do a bangup technical job but the average person would stop reading at the mention of the first equation.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

How is it again that the Colts' balls maintained their pressure but the Pats' balls didn't? I missed that part.

There is no information on whether they maintained their pre-game pressure, only that they were within the acceptable range when measured later. So, if they started at a higher PSI they may have decreased in pressure but still stayed within the acceptable range. Pre-game preparation and storage could have impacted the amount by which they deflated as well. No one knows what the exact PSI readings were pre-game or even whether all of the balls were properly gauged. There are reports that officials sometimes check the balls solely by feel. This is not surprising given that this issue had received no attention before the AFCCG.

 

[shepard50]

OK. Here is an update on where we are.
 
I have handed all of this off to our team (it's a small team, we are a small business) to turn this into a script and then produce an animated 'explainer' video. They will use this outline:
 

1. What are the facts, the actual facts of the situation?
2. In the absence of facts, the media and the public in general tend to start making things up. In this particular scandal, what assumptions, speculations, and rumors began to emerge in leu of facts?
3. Given how this scandal has unfolded over the last week, what does it seem to say about the American media and the public at large? What have both entities (media and public) done right and what have they done wrong?

It will take us a few days to produce, we are going to move as quickly as possible so as not to get too far behind the cycle of the story. We'll shoot for Thursday or Friday. To the point made several times in this thread, we will NOT focus on proving the Patriots innocence, but rather an objective view on how things spin out if control in the absence of FACT.
 
I'll post the finished product and we can use your help in trying to go viral. I have no idea how to do that, but we certainly have scale and mass if we use the community here. If anyone has ideas on how to go viral that would be great.
 
I am hugely appreciative of ALL the great input we have gotten in this thread (and by PM). Even if your factoid or approach does not make it into the video, please know that you have all shaped and informed (and accelerated) the process hugely. I'd like to credit SoSH, or the contributors here, but somehow but that seems like it would kill the objective voice of the thing. Thoughts?
 
Stay tuned...

 

[crystalline]

OK. Here is an update on where we are.
 
It will take us a few days to produce, we are going to move as quickly as possible so as not to get too far behind the cycle of the story. We'll shoot for Thursday or Friday. To the point made several times in this thread, we will NOT focus on proving the Patriots innocence, but rather an objective view on how things spin out if control in the absence of FACT.
 

 
This is great - this could be a really great video.  Teaching that media is motivated more by getting buzz than facts is really important.   Modern reality is now shaped not by those who wish to uncover the truth, but instead the opposite is true - those who exaggerate and twist the truth get rewarded with attention.   
 
Maybe you should do a history of CHB:  "early articles: talking about the team", then "created the 'Curse', got tons of attention and book deals and money and saw the dark side" and now "basically says whatever he thinks will get attention, ignoring the truth and attacking anyone he can".    Sadly, this isn't true just in sports journalism - Anderson Cooper is no Edward R. Murrow.
 
Edit: in fact, to hell with it, you should just make this about Fox News, the Post, and Rupert Murdoch.  

 

[blueguitar322]

How is it again that the Colts' balls maintained their pressure but the Pats' balls didn't? I missed that part.

Possible reasons:
 
(1) Colts started on high end, deflated but still in spec;
(2) Refs didn't measure Colts' balls at halftime, and when they measured at end of game, allowed them to return to room temp before measurement;
(3) Colts' balls were never measured, and that leak was misreported;
(4) Colts' prep for footballs is different, and reacts faster/slower to temperature and moisture
 
My guess is #2 or #3.

 

[SumnerH]

 
Possible reasons:
 
(1) Colts started on high end, deflated but still in spec;
(2) Refs didn't measure Colts' balls at halftime, and when they measured at end of game, allowed them to return to room temp before measurement;
(3) Colts' balls were never measured, and that leak was misreported;
(4) Colts' prep for footballs is different, and reacts faster/slower to temperature and moisture
 
My guess is #2 or #3.
 

 
(5) Colts filled their balls at a different temperature (pulled them out of the cold equipment truck for testing, filled on the sideline, whatever).
 
Speculation is pointless until we know they were actually measured and maintained their original pressure outside, which I highly doubt is true (ie I agree with your (2) or (3) hypothesis).

 

[Pleasantlybitter]

Could a dunking bird be used as a simple prop to get the ball rolling re: temperature relating to pressure?

 

[Harry Hooper]

 
(5) Colts filled their balls at a different temperature (pulled them out of the cold equipment truck for testing, filled on the sideline, whatever).
 
Speculation is pointless until we know they were actually measured and maintained their original pressure outside, which I highly doubt is true (ie I agree with your (2) or (3) hypothesis).

 
 
Regarding 2 & 3, the whole mindset of NFL Ops in this seems to have been measuring the Pats balls, pressure under 12.5, GUILTY!    stop 

 

[Frisbetarian]

In case it helps, I'm a professor of physics at an institution NOT around Boston, so perhaps free from implicit bias. I have some experience explaining concepts in a simple way; ask those who attended the Saber Seminar a few years ago about the whiffle-ball talk.

Let me know what I can do, if anything.

 
You were amazing both at the Saber Seminar and at the MIT HSSP Program, and I can never thank you enough for helping out with both. I strongly recommend SM for this project. 

 

[nickandemmasuncle]

I think you'd have to keep it extremely simple, without equations, like Belichick did. Reason I say that is that most people don't want to be bothered with anything technical even about things that are really important to them, like electricity. All they want to know is whether an outlet is "hot" or not, or if a lightbulb is burned out. Most people would run with horror from E=IR, or getting away from electricity, F=MA. So, my opinion is that what Bill did is "it". You could do a bangup technical job but the average person would stop reading at the mention of the first equation.

 
(Probably too) late to the party, but agreed that people would freak out at any math equation. To be honest, people are so entrenched in their positions on this whole issue that I doubt anything would work, but you might have a slightly better shot if you ditch the math equations and just explain the physical intuition behind why pressure rises with temperature. Something like...
 

"At a basic level, the pressure in a closed container is the total force of gas molecules hitting any given part of the container’s walls. That explains how we 'feel' pressure – squeeze a more pressurized ball, and there's more resistance, because there's more total force from the molecules pushing outward on the ball’s insides to resist your squeezing from the outside. Squeeze on a less pressurized ball, and it's the opposite.
 
So there are a couple ways ball pressure can increase (assuming constant volume):
 
1) put more air in it – more nitrogen and oxygen molecules in the ball means more molecules hitting each part of the inside surface at a given time, so more total force, and more pressure;
 
2) temperature rises – then the number of gas molecules in the ball doesn’t change, but they now have more heat energy, move at higher speeds, and hit the ball’s interior walls with greater force."

 

[shepard50]

We went with the media shitstorm and the lack of real facts creating a tail wagging the dog of news as entertainment. 
 
Why didn't we go the science route you ask?
 

• It sounds defensive as hell
• Belichick has made this point
• You have to call Bill Nye the science guy a liar (He's a seahawks fan, but it's a hard row to hoe)
• Hard for people to digest
• We thought the pervasive and vacuous media and social media noise overwhelming signal was more socially pertinent in America

It's a big investment for us to make the video. (If we can get it to go viral it shows what our company can do and we want to make a series of "what just happened" videos that examine a current event with fresh insight, so we have reward to go with our reputational risk). If we want to change the way people think we need to come at the whole thing objectively.=, and with a fresh insightful, angle.
 
We don't do anybody any good if we just sound like a bunch if Patriot fans. 
 
Finally, I will say that anybody who has read this site knows that Stupendous man is aptly named, well said Fris.

 

[AlNipper49]

I am happy to pay for any production costs.

 

[Reverend]

To expand on what shep said, the science is all out there. But for many, it's still a story, and that in and of itself is confusing to people. Like, if everyone's talking about it, there must be something, right?
 
shep and his team are going to explain in like a minute why that's not the case by illustrating in accessible form how there can be a story without any evidence that there was an actual problem that would warrant it. Which is fucking awesome.
 
Basically, it will be answering the allegedly rhetorical question so many people have of, "Well, if there's so much smoke, there's got to be fire, right?"
Answer: Not if there's a smoke machine.

 

[Reverend]

I am happy to pay for any production costs.

 
Between this and SingaporeSoxFan breaking #datasetgate, BbtLs is the tip of the spear on ballghazi.
 
Which is awesome, if surprising.

 

[DJnVa]

Not too mention bringing the Aaron Rodgers overinflation statement to a wider audience.

 

[Rosey Ruzicka]

Great idea for the video. 
 
I still think if someone could make the following points somehow be part of the national media dialogue it would be very impactful:

• A football filled up in 75 degree temperature and brought outside to 40 degree temperature would drop by about 1.7 PSI (confirm the exact number but its in that range). This matches Belichicks comments, and this is true for every football ever made ever no exceptions....
• This means, that in every game ever played in cold weather has been played with balls that were deflated (or overinflated and got by refs in pregame check), and nobody has ever complained ever until now.
• That could lead into all the other media shitstorm points 

There is no room for argument, or opinion on this;there has to be a way to state the laws of physics without being seen as defensive.  If Bill Nye wants to disagree with basic laws of physics then I say go at him and use his high public visibility as a way to get attention. Just my thoughts.

 

[shepard50]

I am happy to pay for any production costs.

 
Your money's no good with us.
 
I think this will do well revealing the manic noise that has been the last week+, and if we want to something beyond this let's chat. In terms of getting it out before the Superbowl, short, focussed and objective was the choice. We are pushing hard to get this up Fridayish.
 
Remember peoples. We are making a video but we have no channel. We are relying on the SoSH virus to get this out.
 
If it looks like we need to defend the legacy of the Pats after the SB win, that's a better time to talk about making the physics clear.

 

[Reverend]

Not too mention bringing the Aaron Rodgers overinflation statement to a wider audience.

 
I'm an idiot.
 
 

 
Your money's no good with us.
 
I think this will do well revealing the manic noise that has been the last week+, and if we want to something beyond this let's chat. In terms of getting it out before the Superbowl, short, focussed and objective was the choice. We are pushing hard to get this up Fridayish.
 
Remember peoples. We are making a video but we have no channel. We are relying on the SoSH virus to get this out.
 
If it looks like we need to defend the legacy of the Pats after the SB win, that's a better time to talk about making the physics clear.

 
Battle stations, people.
 
Twitter. Facebook. Other places--whatever.
 
As per above, the people here have successfully initiated two major points that have gone national and, it seems, altered the national conversation. We always thought we were pretty ok--turns out we're pretty damned good. We can do this.
 
This is what the internet was supposed to be. Outside the porn, I mean.

 

[DJnVa]

When is this coming?

 

[koufax32]

Were a science video to be made I think starting with someone inflating a ball in a 75 degree room and moving it to a 45 degree setting with water constantly drizzling on it would be a good visual to have going throughout while a narrator or better, host is talking as well as other examples being shown. Like how a dish is cooking while other things are done on a cooking show...
Instead of focusing on the ideal gas law just focus on the major ways a ball's pressure can be greatly affected (temperature, precipitation, and ball prep) with related skits showing each. By the time the video is done the original ball can be measured again illustrating the relatively large drop that can occur.

This is a great idea. I look at this from the perspective of a Jr high teacher. Just one camera on one person lecturing will lose folks pretty quickly. Having several skits revolving around the central theme that introduces and ends the video communicates the message while keeping interest.

Just my 2 cents...

 

[DJnVa]

Were a science video to be made I think starting with someone inflating a ball in a 75 degree room and moving it to a 45 degree setting with water constantly drizzling on it would be a good visual to have going throughout while a narrator or better, host is talking as well as other examples being shown. Like how a dish is cooking while other things are done on a cooking show...
Instead of focusing on the ideal gas law just focus on the major ways a ball's pressure can be greatly affected (temperature, precipitation, and ball prep) with related skits showing each. By the time the video is done the original ball can be measured again illustrating the relatively large drop that can occur.

This is a great idea. I look at this from the perspective of a Jr high teacher. Just one camera on one person lecturing will lose folks pretty quickly. Having several skits revolving around the central theme that introduces and ends the video communicates the message while keeping interest.

Just my 2 cents...

 
 
The science type video was done really well already though: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxsXFX3tDpg
 
It's one dude on camera, but it's short and he shows the balls, the pressure, the temp, etc.