Expectations for Patriots season, after game 4

How many games will the Patriots win in 2024?

  • 4 or fewer

    Votes: 145 77.5%
  • 5 or 6

    Votes: 39 20.9%
  • 7 or 8

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • 9 or more

    Votes: 1 0.5%

  • Total voters
    187
  • Poll closed .

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Who the fuck knows, other than continuing to expect Mayo to continually stick his foot in it:
View: https://twitter.com/lostalkspats/status/1840759573248119088?s=46&t=11SXTvIYT-tl8b6e7iEUVQ


What the fuck is he doing? He’s like Smeagol/Gollum speaking his internal dialogue back and forth over the weeks on the most important personnel decision for the team. He’s in over his head.
Again. I don't want or expect Mayo to take the BB approach to the media. At all times he should be comfortable in himself. But at the same time, this is a TERRIBLE look.
 

Commander Shears

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One of the closest comps we can find from a hiring perspective is Mike Tomlin, right? Only one year as a DC I believe, and another 5 or so as DB coach in the NFL.

The difference is that he inherited a non-dumpster fire 8-8 Steeler team that had Ben, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, etc.
Other differences are that he inherited one of the best talent evaluation front offices in the business, Dick LeBeau, and won the job via interviewing rather than impressing his boss with how he spoke to children on one of the owner's personal projects.
 

Cellar-Door

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Again. I don't want or expect Mayo to take the BB approach to the media. At all times he should be comfortable in himself. But at the same time, this is a TERRIBLE look.
you can be friendly and fairly open with the Media, many coaches are. But you need to be prepared and measured, Mayo gives the impression he's making it up as he goes along and didn't anticipate the obvious questions.... that's concerning.

Overall I expected we were going to take a pretty huge step back at coach, Bill was still an excellent coach, top 3 in the league. The question will be how big, and is it offset by a step forward in the front office, which we probably won't know for at least another year.
 

Traut

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This was mentioned in the game thread and it is not a terrible strategy. When on offense, if outside of it being a 65 yard field goal, you take 3 knees and then punt the ball. You let the defense do its thing. There's a real chance you can beat a team like Jacksonville something like 16-6 or something if you can force a pick 6. Reduce it to a game of field position, special teams, defense, and not fumbling or throwing picks.

But otherwise, even with a weak schedule, this team is so terrible that it is hard to see them winning 4 more times this year. At this point, they should be figuring out what is useful for 2027.
 

ShaneTrot

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Carroll and Grier left the Pats in such bad shape under the cap that for the 2000 season there was real concern that they wouldn't be able to field a full 53 man roster. They had to keep a ton of guys on the team who would normally be cut because they simply couldn't afford better ones. That is a huge reason why the 2000 season was so bad.

Once the cap space cleared up a bit, BB was able to add a ton of FAs for 2001 with actual talent, which meant between that and nailing the 2001 draft, the team was quickly turned out.
I think you are going a bit too far here, I think Carroll had his issues and he probably learned a lot after his NE experience but that 1999 team was loaded with good players. On defense, they had Law, McGinest, Milloy, Johnson, and Brushci. The offense was lacking after Beldsoe, Faulk, Glenn, and Woody. After the 2000 season, BB beefed up the roster. Mayo wishes he inherited a roster that good.
 

lexrageorge

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I think you are going a bit too far here, I think Carroll had his issues and he probably learned a lot after his NE experience but that 1999 team was loaded with good players. On defense, they had Law, McGinest, Milloy, Johnson, and Brushci. The offense was lacking after Beldsoe, Faulk, Glenn, and Woody. After the 2000 season, BB beefed up the roster. Mayo wishes he inherited a roster that good.
OL was a problem in 2000: Armstrong was washed (Pepper Johnson wrote about that in his autobiography), and the right side of the line was Sale Isaia, an injured Max Lane, and Grant Williams (who would have been 2 years old at the time). And the LB corps was thin, with Andy Katzemoyer and Chris Slade playing meaningful minutes.

This team is more like the 1992 team in terms of talent on offense.
 

AB in DC

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It will all depend on finding some healthy O-lineman. If they can't, 4 wins may be a reach. If they can, 6-7 wins is still in the cards. This is a team that has played two decent-to-good games and two horrible games. The OL is the only thing stopping the week 1-2 team from coming back.
 

SMU_Sox

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I said 5-6 but my range is more like 3-6. They have 9 games where they should at least have a chance to compete: 2 vs the Fins, the Colts, the Bears, the Chargers, the Cardinals, the Rams, the Titans, and the Jags. If they get a little healthier on the OL, Maye and his offensive structure + out of structure elements give them more success on offense, and the defense figures out how to generate more of a pass rush they should be able to win a handful of games. It won't be as bad as it was the last 2 games for the rest of the season.
 

BaseballJones

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This was mentioned in the game thread and it is not a terrible strategy. When on offense, if outside of it being a 65 yard field goal, you take 3 knees and then punt the ball. You let the defense do its thing. There's a real chance you can beat a team like Jacksonville something like 16-6 or something if you can force a pick 6. Reduce it to a game of field position, special teams, defense, and not fumbling or throwing picks.
That's not only a terrible strategy, it's an insult to the game of football. I assume this is meant totally tongue in cheek, but in the off chance that it's not....

Of course you have to at least TRY on offense. At least a little. Even if all you do is run into the line with two hands on the ball every play it's possible to get a first down and eat up some clock, alter field position a little, and allow your defense to rest some. They're 16th in the NFL in turnovers (giveaways), so they're average at that aspect of the game. Turnovers aren't what's doing this team in (though they haven't helped). You have to try on offense some.
 

BaseballJones

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It will all depend on finding some healthy O-lineman. If they can't, 4 wins may be a reach. If they can, 6-7 wins is still in the cards. This is a team that has played two decent-to-good games and two horrible games. The OL is the only thing stopping the week 1-2 team from coming back.
That, and the mounting injuries on defense.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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Carroll and Grier left the Pats in such bad shape under the cap that for the 2000 season there was real concern that they wouldn't be able to field a full 53 man roster. They had to keep a ton of guys on the team who would normally be cut because they simply couldn't afford better ones. That is a huge reason why the 2000 season was so bad.

Once the cap space cleared up a bit, BB was able to add a ton of FAs for 2001 with actual talent, which meant between that and nailing the 2001 draft, the team was quickly turned out.
True, but that 2000 team had some decent building blocks (and I'm intentionally not including Brady/Maye). I'd take Law, McGinest, Bruschi, Bledsoe, Troy Brown, Joe Andruzzi, Damien Woody and maybe a few others over pretty much anything the Pats are rolling out right now.
 

Silverdude2167

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It will all depend on finding some healthy O-lineman. If they can't, 4 wins may be a reach. If they can, 6-7 wins is still in the cards. This is a team that has played two decent-to-good games and two horrible games. The OL is the only thing stopping the week 1-2 team from coming back.
As a famous racecar driver said. "If my grandmother had wheels she would be a bike".

This FO gets one more offseason, but the fact that this is the line they went into the season with should be a fireable offense. WR's are nice, but useless if you cant block.
 

Silverdude2167

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True, but that 2000 team had some decent building blocks (and I'm intentionally not including Brady/Maye). I'd take Law, McGinest, Bruschi, Bledsoe, Troy Brown, Joe Andruzzi, Damien Woody and maybe a few others over pretty much anything the Pats are rolling out right now.
The 2000 team shows how easy it is to screw up an NFL team. The 2001 FA class was amazing, and it bolstered a great core that was being held back by the coach and a QB who was on the back 9.
 

mikeford

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I thought they could get to 5 or 6 after the Bengals game but this offensive line looks like it may prevent them from winning another game entirely. Couple that with huge losses on defense in the last month and shit ain't lookin good.
 

Cellar-Door

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Have to say, I did not have Vederian Lowe as the most important Patriots player before this season but.... he kind of has been?
 

Toe Nash

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I expect 4 wins now, picked 6 or so before the season but the injuries to key players on defense means they aren't going to be able to keep games close which was kinda their only way to win unless the offense gets more explosive suddenly (which could happen with Maye but I wouldn't count on it this year). Unless they get a big turnover or return, they are going to be playing from behind for the majority of most games and the team isn't built for that.
 

moretsyndrome

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3-14. I hit the 81 on the Sox prediction thread, so you can pretty much take this to the bank;). I see 4 close to 50/50 games on the rest of the schedule (MIA x2, JAX, TENN) and that's about it. Maybe more if Buffalo has nothing to play for week 17, or if Kyler Murray and/or Rodgers go down.
 

Deathofthebambino

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If you accept the fact that losing may be in the best interests of the Patriots franchise moving forward, it makes what we're watching slightly more bearable.

The best QB on the roster is on the bench (folks can tell me there is no evidence of that, but I've seen Drake Maye play football and I've seen Jacoby play football, it's not close). I suspect we'll see Maye sooner than later. 3 of the first 4 games of the season have been on the road, and I'm guessing when Kraft starts seeing 10,000 empty seats at Gillette at a couple home games, the noise for Maye will get loud, from every direction.

This team has a ton of cap money to spend in the offseason, they're staring at a top 5, maybe top 3 pick in the draft. Next year will be the year we hope to see 9-8 or something, and then build from there. This season, the best thing they can do is get Maye some reps without getting him killed, figure out which, if any, of the young guys can develop and see what they can get in the trade market for their mediocre vets who have some interested suitors willing to give up draft picks. Let Mayo and staff continue to learn while this all unfolds.

That's it folks. A team with the worst offensive line and worst skill position players and a shit ton of injuries on defense isn't winning games, and winning games is, IMO, sub-optimal for them at the moment anyway.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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In Parcells case (1993) sure, but when Belichick came in, he was a guy who hadn't enjoyed a lot of success in Cleveland, even though there were reasons for that. But he got better, as did Pete Carroll over the years. Right now, nobody knows if Mayo will eventually prove to be a good head coach. It's only four games in.
BB had won a playoff game as a HC and had a game plan enshrined in the HOF as a DC

Mayo has never even called plays or overseen an entire unit. He’s a position coach now turned head coach

not saying he will or won’t fail but the situation is totally different than BB.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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5 wins feels right. It’s a bad team and questionable coached but there’s a lot of similarly bad teams out there. It’s hard to win fewer than 5 in the NFL.

Mayo looks in over his head and I’m very skeptical of Wolf/Groh who totally failed the 2024 off-season other than doing the obvious thing (sticking at 3 and drafting a QB).

I expected the D to regress fairly significantly with the coaching change. The roster being somehow worse (outside of QB) this year than last is very concerning.

when Joey Slye is your big off-season upgrade, you’ve missed the mark somewhere
 

Remagellan

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BB had won a playoff game as a HC and had a game plan enshrined in the HOF as a DC

Mayo has never even called plays or overseen an entire unit. He’s a position coach now turned head coach

not saying he will or won’t fail but the situation is totally different than BB.
Spags also did a historic job as a DC for a Super Bowl winner before he got a HC position; he still failedin the top job. And we had an OC who made significant contributions to multiple SB teams who failed twice at the top job.

clearly Mayo’s resume is thinner than most HCs in the league, but as pointed out above, so was Mike Tomlin’s and that’s worked out well for the Steelers. Time may prove he’s over his head in this job, but if so, it’s going to take more than four games.

Parcells was an absolute disaster in his first season with the Giants, and was nearly fired and replaced by Howard Schnellenberger. And he made the same “mistake” that Mayo has made—he promised an open competition in camp between Phil Simms and Scott Brunner and then played Brunner because he led the Giants to the playoffs the year before despite Simms outplaying him in TC and the preseason. He said later it was a mistake, because the players always know. And if you keep running out the wrong guy, they start to wonder if you know your job—and then you lose your locker room. Let’s hope it doesn’t get that far with Mayo. At some point, he’s going to have to start Maye if he keeps outperforming Jacoby in practice or that will erode his players faith in him.
 

8slim

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I said 4 or less before the season started and there’s certainly no reason to change that now.

The team was largely bereft of talent a month ago, save for a few spots on D, and due to injuries it’s now even worse.

They’ll win a couple more games, because that’s how the NFL works. But this is a very very bad football team.