I'm still guessing 5, and there could be a 6th lurking. The NFL is often a war of attrition, and this Patriots squad is already, uh, pretty attritioned. But there are at least 8 games ahead versus weakened opponents where the odds won't be terrible, and I think they'll win 4 of them:
- vs MIA - QB stirs the drink here, and they don't have a decent backup. Tonight's game vs. TEN could be one of those 9-6 dumpster fires.
- "vs" JAX - they look inept in all phases.
- vs NYJ - at home, with some pride on the line.
- @TEN - another deeply inept team.
- vs. IND - this is a one-man squad in Jonathan Taylor, and if he breaks down, IND is ripe for the picking.
- vs. LAR - west-coming-east always matters, and the Rams aren't great.
- @ARZ - their strengths play to ours, and an otherwise not-good roster
- vs LAC - another west-to-east game, and again, another hapless roster
You could even throw in @MIA as a 9th winnable game, given their QB situation, but road wins in the division come down to preparation and execution, and this team hasn't looked prepared since the first game. If I had to guess, I think they win vs. MIA, vs. JAX and @TEN to get to 3-4 on the season, and then only pick up wins vs. the LA teams that come to Foxboro the rest of the way (the latter win pushing them out of the top 5 picks for 2025, sigh). 1-5 in the division, 5-12 overall.