Expectations for Patriots season, after game 4

How many games will the Patriots win in 2024?

  • 4 or fewer

    Votes: 145 77.5%
  • 5 or 6

    Votes: 39 20.9%
  • 7 or 8

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • 9 or more

    Votes: 1 0.5%

  • Total voters
    187
  • Poll closed .

Eddie Jurak

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This is how people voted right before the season started:

4 or fewer wins: 36.5%
5 or 6 wins: 49.0%
7 or 8 wins: 11.5%
9 or 10 wins: 0%
11 or more wins: 2.9%

The median expectation was 5 or 6 wins.

What say you now SoSH, now that the Pats are 1-3 after 4 games?
 

streeter88

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I was in the 5 or 6 camp before the season, but looking at Jacoby’s valiant effort (massive limitations) combined with the continued carnage on the OL, as well as the defense not really getting it done. It’s hard to see them putting in Maye any time soon, and thus not able to see more than three more wins the rest of the season.

The only wildcard to me is if Bourne comes back healthy and Maye follows before Halloween. I don’t think Jacoby gets us another three wins.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I stayed with my original prediction of 5 or 6 wins, because I think there are plenty of other bad NFL teams, the Pats will eventially figure some shit out due to necessity, and - for better or worse - they will probably not choose to obviously tank.
 

tims4wins

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I stayed with my original prediction of 5 or 6 wins, because I think there are plenty of other bad NFL teams, the Pats will eventially figure some shit out due to necessity, and - for better or worse - they will probably not choose to obviously tank.
I forget what my original vote was, but I agree with this line of thinking. The schedule isn't really a bear. They have 13 more games. I don't see 5 wins, but I also don't see 3-10.
 

BaseballJones

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The team looks bad. The QB can't do anything. Their best RB fumbles a lot. The defense has major injury issues and is getting no help from the offense. I'm not sold on the idea that the WRs are bad. I think Josh Allen would be putting up plenty of points with this group, to be honest, between the WRs and TEs, assuming he had decent protection, which isn't happening with the Pats because the QB is no Josh Allen and the OL is a complete sieve.

So not a lot going on that makes me think they're going to win many games.

Then I look at the schedule, which I shared in another thread. It's a 10-game stretch that, on paper, looks like one of the easiest 10-game stretches you could ever draw up. So while the Pats are, as presently constituted (injuries included), pretty awful, they play a lot of bad to mediocre teams over the next 10 games. So I figure they have to win a few, even if they luck into some of them. So I think they'll win 4 of the next 10 and get to 5 wins on the season.
 

lexrageorge

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It's hard to overcome the recency bias with the team looking worst in the league quality in their last 2 losses. However, the degree of difficulty should not be understated: facing the Jets in their home opener on a short week. And then traveling to face a team that is coming off a Super Bowl loss and was struggling out of the gate and so was probably desperate for a win in front of their home fans. So, their 1-3 record is probably about where we expected it to be, and teams always look worse in losses. But,.....

The team's defense is developing too many holes due to injury, and none of them are of the variety in which we can expect in-season reinforcements by players returning to health. Story on ESPN is that Barmore is likely lost for the season (as expected), we already know Bentley is gone, and Dugger's injury didn't look great as he was spotted using crutches and a walking boot to get around after the game. The OL is inarguably worst in the NFL right now.

On top of all that, they probably will be sellers at the deadline: Wise, Uche, and Jonathan Jones (unlikely) are pending UFA's that could return some low end draft capital. Schedule should allow them to win a couple of more games playing ball control type offense, but finding 4 or more wins seems impossible right now.
 

sezwho

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I’m not sure what I actually forecast, but I saw a 7-8 win ceiling. That seems a long way away now, even with the Cincinnati win.

Thought they’d resign Judon and pair with healthy and talented front and secondary. That seems a long way away as well.

Thought the line would stabilize and Rham would rediscover his wheels. Seems a ways away.

Thought Brissett would find the open man underneath or on a cross and hand the ball off enough to limit the damage. Have no idea how to evaluate this situation but it’s not good either.

Maybe 4-5 wins?
 

jsinger121

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I’m not sure what I actually forecast, but I saw a 7-8 win ceiling. That seems a long way away now, even with the Cincinnati win.

Thought they’d resign Judon and pair with healthy and talented front and secondary. That seems a long way away as well.

Thought the line would stabilize and Rham would rediscover his wheels. Seems a ways away.

Thought Brissett would find the open man underneath or on a cross and hand the ball off enough to limit the damage. Have no idea how to evaluate this situation but it’s not good either.

Maybe 4-5 wins?
Trading Judon was one of the best decisions they made. He’s a shell of himself and on the wrong side of 30. They would have the same record with or without Judon. Now they have an extra 3rd round pick.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I stayed with my original prediction of 5 or 6 wins, because I think there are plenty of other bad NFL teams, the Pats will eventially figure some shit out due to necessity, and - for better or worse - they will probably not choose to obviously tank.
They went 4-13 last year and so far this year are demonstrably worse, particularly in the coaching area.

At this point, given the disaster of the first four games, they will be lucky to match last year's record.
 

sezwho

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Trading Judon was one of the best decisions they made. He’s a shell of himself and on the wrong side of 30. They would have the same record with or without Judon. Now they have an extra 3rd round pick.
Well, I wasn’t really passing judgment, but if you wanna call them geniuses they should’ve done it last year. We could’ve used those picks this year too.

All im saying is a healthy Wise Judon Barmore and Keion was in my mind for this season when I was setting expectations…now not so much .
 

Garshaparra

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I'm still guessing 5, and there could be a 6th lurking. The NFL is often a war of attrition, and this Patriots squad is already, uh, pretty attritioned. But there are at least 8 games ahead versus weakened opponents where the odds won't be terrible, and I think they'll win 4 of them:

- vs MIA - QB stirs the drink here, and they don't have a decent backup. Tonight's game vs. TEN could be one of those 9-6 dumpster fires.
- "vs" JAX - they look inept in all phases.
- vs NYJ - at home, with some pride on the line.
- @TEN - another deeply inept team.
- vs. IND - this is a one-man squad in Jonathan Taylor, and if he breaks down, IND is ripe for the picking.
- vs. LAR - west-coming-east always matters, and the Rams aren't great.
- @ARZ - their strengths play to ours, and an otherwise not-good roster
- vs LAC - another west-to-east game, and again, another hapless roster

You could even throw in @MIA as a 9th winnable game, given their QB situation, but road wins in the division come down to preparation and execution, and this team hasn't looked prepared since the first game. If I had to guess, I think they win vs. MIA, vs. JAX and @TEN to get to 3-4 on the season, and then only pick up wins vs. the LA teams that come to Foxboro the rest of the way (the latter win pushing them out of the top 5 picks for 2025, sigh). 1-5 in the division, 5-12 overall.
 

Justthetippett

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They just came through a rough part of their schedule and could have gone 2-2. If they fall flat against Miami, I think we'll know they are a 3-4 win team but I voted 5-6 because there's a lot of bad football, injuries pile up for other teams too, etc. That said they have to get some semblance of an offensive line together to win any more games this year. It's been beyond awful.
 

Eddie Jurak

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They went 4-13 last year and so far this year are demonstrably worse, particularly in the coaching area.

At this point, given the disaster of the first four games, they will be lucky to match last year's record.
They are better on ST and on not turning the ball over. I can't think of anywhere else they are better, but those 2 things are meaningful.

That being said, the board mostly agrees with you so far. Right before the season opening kickoff, 36.5% of us who voted thought "4 or fewer" and 49% thought "5 or 6". Now 76.4% think 4 or fewer and only 11.5% see 5 or 6.
 

IdiotKicker

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Prior to the season, I thought there was a wide range of outcomes - anywhere from 1 to 9 wins being possible. I think both of those extremes are off the table, and I'm kind of narrowing in on 4-5 wins as being likely. They are bad, they will be one of the 5-6 worst teams in the league, but even those teams usually find a way to win 4-5 games. I mean, if you go 1-3 every month of the season, that’s where you end up, and I could see most months looking like this last one.
 

BigSoxFan

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4 or fewer sounds right to me. The OL is a mess and the team’s best offensive player is a mediocre RB who fumbles a lot now. 5-6 wins wouldn’t shock me but I just don’t see it with this team.
 

Bigdogx

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About the only thing i can say is the team didnt give up when many bad teams like them have, as yesterday's game was literally over before it started. Other then that i can't expect much from a failed roster like this, Wolf built a team without an NFL caliber offensive line and it is going to get our qb's injured. The beating Brissett has taken the last 2 weeks is insane, to those wanting Maye to start i equate that to someone with a rare classic garage queen car, taking it out for a spin in a hail storm to just give it a run! Don't worry Brissett is eventually going to be knocked out of one of these games and you guys are going to get your wish.

Lol to the 1 person who voted 9 or more, i mean why clog up the poll with moronic votes, even the players mothers wouldn't vote over 4 wins right now...
 

astrozombie

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I downgraded my pre-season prediction from 5 wins down to 4 or less. O line is as bad as expected, defense is missing players everywhere and there is no depth behind their already questionable starters. Brissett isn't good, but no one expected him to be and again, he is playing behind a sieve. This is a team that has been poorly constructed for years and one season is not going to fix that.
 

Remagellan

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They look awful at this point, but I don't think anything can be predicted about their finish until we see Maye play. The Commanders were supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league, and now look like they might have a shot to win the NFC East. If Maye is special, he might make a lot of guys around him look better than they do right now. For instance, Washington's offensive line was supposed to be a problem, but it's hard to see that now because Daniels' ability to make quick decisions and elude pressure masks that.

If this season ends with them winning 4-6 games, but Maye emerges from the season healthy and clearly show signs of being the QB they hoped he's be when they drafted him, I'll consider the season a success. Kind of like Drew's 5-7 1993 season in which the team finished 6-10.
 

BaseballJones

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4 or fewer sounds right to me. The OL is a mess and the team’s best offensive player is a mediocre RB who fumbles a lot now. 5-6 wins wouldn’t shock me but I just don’t see it with this team.
I think the team’s best offensive player is holding a clipboard.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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Then I look at the schedule, which I shared in another thread. It's a 10-game stretch that, on paper, looks like one of the easiest 10-game stretches you could ever draw up. So while the Pats are, as presently constituted (injuries included), pretty awful, they play a lot of bad to mediocre teams over the next 10 games. So I figure they have to win a few, even if they luck into some of them.
This. I'm sticking with 5-6 wins and a top 5 draft pick.

If our first four games had gone in the reverse order (lose on the road to San Fran & NYJ, lose in OT to Seattle, beat Cincinnati) the mood here would be very different. But in the NFL it can feel like a team's momentum can change every week. Especially for mediocre-to-bad teams like us
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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They look awful at this point, but I don't think anything can be predicted about their finish until we see Maye play. The Commanders were supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league, and now look like they might have a shot to win the NFC East. If Maye is special, he might make a lot of guys around him look better than they do right now. For instance, Washington's offensive line was supposed to be a problem, but it's hard to see that now because Daniels' ability to make quick decisions and elude pressure masks that.
We live in hope

That said, the 4th quarter of the Jets game did not give us a bunch of evidence that putting Maye in is going to suddenly fix the offense
 

DJnVa

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Also, my expectations are pretty much the same as before the season.
 

Cellar-Door

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Probably 4-5? They were competitive when healthy against pretty decent teams, they are now in an injury apocalypse and have fallen off a cliff, but also played good teams. They get a stretch of teams that are bad and/or injured soon. Now they need somebody to be healthy, but they showed enough in the 1st two games that they should get a couple more wins.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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4 wins or fewer, and a state funeral with full honors for Jacoby when he actually gets killed out there.

This team really needs some luck in the team building department to pick up some extra picks to speed up the rebuild, otherwise it is going to be a 4 draft (counting 2024) rebuild.
 

Remagellan

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We live in hope

That said, the 4th quarter of the Jets game did not give us a bunch of evidence that putting Maye in is going to suddenly fix the offense
Say what you want, but in the four minutes on the field, he took a ton of hits and still had the team on the verge of a scoring a TD before Mayo (wisely) let the time run out. And it did not look like the Jets defense were backing off in that series.
 

Jimbodandy

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The original Vegas number that I saw was 4.5. After week 1, it seemed like 5 or 6 were possible. Team was at least able to run block, defend the pass, and play credible special teams. The only one of those highlights still holding up is the special teams, where they have improved over last year substantially. But we still can't throw downfield, and now we can't run block either, and the defense is showing holes against the pass too. Not sure anymore where 5-6 wins are coming from. Still possible, but it feels more like 4 wins now.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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There's a HUGE difference in giving the raw rookie 4th quarter snaps and prepping him all week to start.
Say what you want, but in the four minutes on the field, he took a ton of hits and still had the team on the verge of a scoring a TD

Don't get me wrong-- I'm not dogging on Maye. (At least I don't think I am)

To my untrained eye we had receivers open downfield yesterday against San Fran, and Jacoby often didn't see them or didn't deliver.

If Maye can see the field and get the ball out fast that would help our OLine and our offense. The absence of lots of evidence for this (yet) doesn't mean it's not true. It just means we don't yet have evidence for this.
 

Remagellan

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One other thing--I know there's a lot of disappointment with Mayo thus far, but remember, he's also learning on the job. Simmons and Sal had a running joke about how overrated Kyle Shanahan was as a head coach a few years ago, and now that bit has died because it would be silly to suggest a head coach who has taken his team to two Super Bowls can't cut it. Hopefully Mayo will get better at this as the season goes on, and in the years to come if he is granted that opportunity.
 

Mooch

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One thing to keep in mind is that if/when the Pats are a 1-3 win team by late October, pretty much every player that's not part of the rebuild will be on the trade block for future picks. If there's a huge fire sale, you're looking at a team that's (believe it or not) even worse from a talent standpoint after the trade deadline. Then things could get REALLY grim. This could easily be a 3-14 type season.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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One other thing--I know there's a lot of disappointment with Mayo thus far, but remember, he's also learning on the job. Simmons and Sal had a running joke about how overrated Kyle Shanahan was as a head coach a few years ago, and now that bit has died because it would be silly to suggest a head coach who has taken his team to two Super Bowls can't cut it. Hopefully Mayo will get better at this as the season goes on, and in the years to come if he is granted that opportunity.
They are taking a tremendous risk in engaging in a total rebuild with a novice head coach who has never even called plays before. There's a non-zero chance that whatever improvements they make for the team, he will screw up because he might not be a capable head coach.

With the rebuilds in 1993 and 2000-2001, the Patriots were helmed by respected head coaches with extensive previous experience. They are going about this one quite a bit differently.
 

tims4wins

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They are taking a tremendous risk in engaging in a total rebuild with a novice head coach who has never even called plays before. There's a non-zero chance that whatever improvements they make for the team, he will screw up because he might not be a capable head coach.

With the rebuilds in 1993 and 2000-2001, the Patriots were helmed by respected head coaches with extensive previous experience. They are going about this one quite a bit differently.
One of the closest comps we can find from a hiring perspective is Mike Tomlin, right? Only one year as a DC I believe, and another 5 or so as DB coach in the NFL.

The difference is that he inherited a non-dumpster fire 8-8 Steeler team that had Ben, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, etc.
 

Remagellan

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They are taking a tremendous risk in engaging in a total rebuild with a novice head coach who has never even called plays before. There's a non-zero chance that whatever improvements they make for the team, he will screw up because he might not be a capable head coach.

With the rebuilds in 1993 and 2000-2001, the Patriots were helmed by respected head coaches with extensive previous experience. They are going about this one quite a bit differently.
In Parcells case (1993) sure, but when Belichick came in, he was a guy who hadn't enjoyed a lot of success in Cleveland, even though there were reasons for that. But he got better, as did Pete Carroll over the years. Right now, nobody knows if Mayo will eventually prove to be a good head coach. It's only four games in.
 

Harry Hooper

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Probably 4-5? They were competitive when healthy against pretty decent teams, they are now in an injury apocalypse and have fallen off a cliff, but also played good teams. They get a stretch of teams that are bad and/or injured soon. Now they need somebody to be healthy, but they showed enough in the 1st two games that they should get a couple more wins.

The bolded is interesting. The reports from training camp were that Mayo put the squad through a lot of practices in full pads, and this was given as one of the reasons they started the season so strong (e.g., good tackling early on). How much of it is the injuries now vs. just the fact that the Pats' ability to "steal a march" on the opposition expired after 6-7 quarters, and now every team is fully engaged in the season?
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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They are taking a tremendous risk in engaging in a total rebuild with a novice head coach who has never even called plays before. There's a non-zero chance that whatever improvements they make for the team, he will screw up because he might not be a capable head coach.

With the rebuilds in 1993 and 2000-2001, the Patriots were helmed by respected head coaches with extensive previous experience. They are going about this one quite a bit differently.
I hope "Mayo Sucks" isn't your "Mac Jones is the problem" from last year. I was with you 100% on that train last year but the Mayo stuff seems pretty short-sighted. Has he been perfect? Absolutely not. Has he had some questionable decisions exacerbated by unbelievably poor offensive performance due to a litany of oline injuries that they couldn't afford? Yup.

He has the team putting in effort. Really hard to overcome the injuries they've sustained on the oline. On the defensive side losing Bentley was huge and now Dugger. With Barmore already out thats 3 of your top defenders gone. Hawkins made a shit play on that long Deebo catch and some were calling for Covingtons head. I think there needs to be some less reactionary takes here.

AVP is calling some good offensive plays but the execution is abysmal. Rham fumbling and Brissetts inability to get the ball out on the rare occasion he has time to throw is not on the coaching.

Oh, I also saw you compare Polk to Harry. Thats laughable. Polk looks like someone who needs to polish a couple of things like most second round rookies but is already a much better player than Harry.
 

JJ17

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I'm going with four wins. This is a hard reset year - talent, coaching, culture, etc. I'd liken it to a full turn around in business. It's tough to get good people to join (coaching and players) until they see a reason to join. It's hard to overstate how barren the cupboards were of genuine talent at the most important positions on the field. I think we'll see Maye in the later parts of the year when they feel comfortable with him consistently reading and reacting to what the defense throws at him (which they are working on with snaps with the 1's and his scout team work). And at least we'll have some semblance of hope. I think Mayo gets 2-3 years working at this. It's going to be bumpy with him learning on the fly, but we took a shot at a young coach because Kraft likes stability and the risk of him flaming out is worth the upside of having a coach in place for the next decade+ if it works out.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I hope "Mayo Sucks" isn't your "Mac Jones is the problem" from last year. I was with you 100% on that train last year but the Mayo stuff seems pretty short-sighted. Has he been perfect? Absolutely not. Has he had some questionable decisions exacerbated by unbelievably poor offensive performance due to a litany of oline injuries that they couldn't afford? Yup.

He has the team putting in effort. Really hard to overcome the injuries they've sustained on the oline. On the defensive side losing Bentley was huge and now Dugger. With Barmore already out thats 3 of your top defenders gone. Hawkins made a shit play on that long Deebo catch and some were calling for Covingtons head. I think there needs to be some less reactionary takes here.

AVP is calling some good offensive plays but the execution is abysmal. Rham fumbling and Brissetts inability to get the ball out on the rare occasion he has time to throw is not on the coaching.

Oh, I also saw you compare Polk to Harry. Thats laughable. Polk looks like someone who needs to polish a couple of things like most second round rookies but is already a much better player than Harry.
I'm not there in the Mac territory on Mayo. I think his start has been inauspicious, but it's also early. I think he's giving a lot of signs that he's in over his head, but even I'm not going to fire him after 4 games. His strategy calls yesterday were horrible, but I don't think they were winning that game under any circumstances. And certainly I understand and approve of a non-BB approach to coaching the team, it's not reasonable for the new coach to exactly be like the old coach.

But it's fair to wonder if he's the right guy to helm a rebuild and the development of the next franchise QB given his total lack of experience. I guess we'll see.

As for Polk, his two big mistakes yesterday could have been thrown into Harry's NE lowlight reel without standing out at all. They better hope he develops better than Harry did. I suppose one could be optimistic and say it would be difficult to develop worse.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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In Parcells case (1993) sure, but when Belichick came in, he was a guy who hadn't enjoyed a lot of success in Cleveland, even though there were reasons for that. But he got better, as did Pete Carroll over the years. Right now, nobody knows if Mayo will eventually prove to be a good head coach. It's only four games in.
Belichick had already been a DC for many years with tremendous success and an HC for 4-5 years. Mayo wasn't even calling the defensive plays as DC, and obviously had no HC experience. It's a helluva risk for sure.
 

cshea

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First 4 games

Polk 8/61 1 TD
Harry 5/40 1 TD
Thornton 8/73 1 TD
Douglas 9/119 0 TD
Boutte 2/19 0 TD
Harry was playing with Brady. The other 4 are Mac and Brissett.

We'll see how he progresses, but I've kind of liked Polk thusfar. He's not going to be an explosive yards after the catch guy but seems like he can make tough contested catches. There are things to clean up but that's going to be true for any rookie WR regardless of where they were drafted. He also seems like a pretty decent blocker, or at least the team believes he is.

I think he can be a good possession guy but is probably not a #1 receiver.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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They are taking a tremendous risk in engaging in a total rebuild with a novice head coach who has never even called plays before. There's a non-zero chance that whatever improvements they make for the team, he will screw up because he might not be a capable head coach.

With the rebuilds in 1993 and 2000-2001, the Patriots were helmed by respected head coaches with extensive previous experience. They are going about this one quite a bit differently.
This to me is far more like 1993 than the BB rebuild, in that it is a "personnel" rebuild. The 1992 team was bereft of talent. This year's team is on that level. Those later teams actually had some guys who could play, but Pete Carroll hadnt fully developed as a coach and was taking them in the wrong direction.

BB's 2001 free agent class was epic. I dont know if anything close to that can happen this time around.


Realistically, outside of injuries to key players on either teams (i.e. Kyler Murray) where are the Pats likely to win this year? Arizona, maybe. They might actually suck. Tennessee? Some folks might view a season ending injury to Will Levis as a good thing. Chargers and Bills at the end of the year? That Chargers game here last year was one of the worst football games I've ever been to, but I dont see Harbaugh resting guys even if they have nothing to play for. Coach Hardo? maybe, if Buffalo has the division and a bye wrapped up, but I doubt it.
 

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This to me is far more like 1993 than the BB rebuild, in that it is a "personnel" rebuild. The 1992 team was bereft of talent. This year's team is on that level. Those later teams actually had some guys who could play, but Pete Carroll hadnt fully developed as a coach and was taking them in the wrong direction.

BB's 2001 free agent class was epic. I dont know if anything close to that can happen this time around.
Carroll and Grier left the Pats in such bad shape under the cap that for the 2000 season there was real concern that they wouldn't be able to field a full 53 man roster. They had to keep a ton of guys on the team who would normally be cut because they simply couldn't afford better ones. That is a huge reason why the 2000 season was so bad.

Once the cap space cleared up a bit, BB was able to add a ton of FAs for 2001 with actual talent, which meant between that and nailing the 2001 draft, the team was quickly turned out.