Everton 2013-14: One Door Closes, But Does Another Open?

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mgoblue2

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7.5 with add ons. Lest we forget that despite that it'll be wasted on 3 million pounds of Kenwyne Jones.
 

mgoblue2

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Lacked initiative in the beginning of the second half, could've killed the game off but got bit st the end. Derby becomes crucial as it was going to be for the last month or so.
 

mgoblue2

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Oviedo is going to be out for a while with a double fracture, hopefully he'll be back for the start of next season. It was all the pitch, and Stevenage's fans were classless as well, supposedly giving the "always the victims" song to them as well. Good solid win, all three goal scorers today have been maligned by Everton fans over the last year. Either way, it looks like a few players could come back for the derby (it's iffy) in Barkley for a one off, Coleman, and even Deulofeu. Huge game at Anfield, a loss is possible and if so it'll be crucial to beat Spurs in a couple weeks.
 

mgoblue2

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What pleasant news to hear this morning, after literally years of speculation Leighton Baines signed a 4 year deal. He's become a smaller piece of the lineup this year but the guy is good and has a real chance at starting in Brazil for England. Traore, Jagielka, Distin, Barkley, Coleman, and Alcaraz are going to be assessed today, so no Deulofeu tomorrow. At worst I'd expect Jagielka and Distin to be back and John Stones to slot in at RB, where he played some at Barnsley. If two of the center backs are out it'll be a problem because I'm not scared of Alcaraz starting but I am scared of Hibbert starting. Pienaar probably won't play so Naismith could be preferred to Osman in the middle, Mirallas on the right, McGeady on the left? Hopefully the injuries clear up soon. There better be some 7 goal game or something if this game doesn't lead MOTD on Wednesday.
 

allaboutthesox

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Well, while I am pleased with the style of play of Everton.  I am finding myself becoming a little more frustrated with the results (lack thereof), but understanding that it is a problem that has been known for awhile.  Everton must have a dominant striker(s) to compete for a top four spot.  Lukaku not being able to play completely changes the way Everton approach the game.  Naismith doesn't cut it at all up top.  Mirallas has the pace and skills, but can easily be moved off the ball by more physical central defenders.  One can only hope Traore can make his debut sooner rather than later and provide that striker we need while Lukaku is out.  If not, Everton may fade over the next 13 games and be looking to make the Europa League instead of the Champions League.  Qualifying for Europa League wouldn't be bad, but Champions League would be much better and more than likely give us the opportunity to keep Lukaku on a permanent move.  The one thing the top 4 teams in the EPL have right now is a +22GD rating or higher (Everton sit at +11GD at the moment).
 
I am pleased with Roberto Martinez as I truly think Everton have more than an opportunity in every game to win.  That being said though, Everton's standing in the table are almost identical to last year at this point:
 
2012/2013     10W  12D   3L   +10GD     42 PTS     6th in the table     (D. Moyes)  *Everton would finish the year at 63 PTS (6th)
2013/2014     12W    9D   4L   +11GD     45 PTS     6th in the table
 
So, far all the possession and style of play, Everton isn't much better than they were under Moyes (standings wise) at this point.  I will say that Martinez is much more proactive towards going for a win in his substitutions (as seen against the game versus Tottenham).  Rather than playing for a result when playing the 'bigger' clubs, Martinez sees opportunities for the win and makes changes.  I think the future bodes well for Everton going forward, but to keep and attract better players we are going to need the financial windfall of finishing fourth or higher in the EPL and qualifying for the Champions League.
 
Everton have a rather favorable schedule over the remaining games with 7 of the next 13 games being against teams who are 10th or lower in the table.  Out of the next 13 games only 2 are against teams higher than them in the table (Chelsea and Manchester City).  If last season's table is to be a measurement of what it takes to get into the top four, Everton will need at least 73 points to have a chance at a top 4 finish.  Which means they will need 28 points out of the next 39 possible.  While it is possible, it leaves very little room for mistakes and very unforgiving of draws.  We shall see where we are in a month from now and at that point we will know a lot more about whether we are playing for a chance at the Champions League or Europa League.
 
EDIT: Font size came through much smaller from my work computer.
 

soxfan121

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allaboutthesox said:
 Qualifying for Europa League wouldn't be bad, but Champions League would be much better and more than likely give us the opportunity to keep Lukaku on a permanent move.  
 
First, that's an awesome post. Really hits everything with the proper weight.
 
Second, there is no chance Everton gets Lukaku on a permanent basis. He grew up a Chelsea supporter, Roman is keen on him and they need a long term striker worse than you do. 
 

allaboutthesox

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soxfan121 said:
 
First, that's an awesome post. Really hits everything with the proper weight.
 
Second, there is no chance Everton gets Lukaku on a permanent basis. He grew up a Chelsea supporter, Roman is keen on him and they need a long term striker worse than you do
 
First of all, (bolded part) I am not sure anyone needs a long term striker more than we do.  We have been looking for one since Moyes began his tenure at Everton, lol.  Granted, Yakubu had a phenomenal one year when we got him in 2007 with 21 goals in all competitions.  However, Chelsea have the resources to get a striker, whereas Everton do not and my Everton blinders are hoping Chelsea sees it that way when it comes to Lukaku (unlikely, I know).
 
 
Second, (not trying to be combative) I listed some links below, but apparently Lukaku wants to stay and JM is looking to sell Lukaku to help finance a move for Cavani.  If that is indeed the case, then if Everton can make the CL, that might help finance a permanent move to Everton.  However, there are a lot of obstacles to be crossed (as you mentioned some).
 
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/chelsea-transfer-news-edinson-cavani-3060488
 
It is just a 'rumor' from during the January transfer window so take it for what it is worth (which may not be much).
 
  • Here is a link in which it mentions Lukaku wanting to extend his loan
  • Granted the article is from November of 2013 and his goal scoring pace was phenomenal at that time.  Here is another story from January this year where Martinez has stated he will visit the idea of a permanent move after the season.  He [Martinez] did admit that he hasn't received the inclination that Chelsea is looking or willing to sell.  Martinez does think that qualifying for the Champions League could persuade Lukaku to want to come to Everton. 
 
I cannot lie, I really hope JM wants to sell Lukaku and that Everton take the plunge and sign him.  However, I am fairly certain that there would be other teams who would outbid us for Lukaku.  I think my desire to have a young and potentially club changing striker at Everton may be blinding me from reality on this one though.  He fits the current system so well, it stinks to think he will be leaving to sit on the bench at Chelsea after the season.  I will get into that more in a later post as we get near to or at the end of the season.
 
EDIT: Format and other stuff.
 

soxfan121

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Per this, Lukaku will be a "homegrown" player for Chelsea after his age-21 season, which makes him a huge part of their future qualifying Champion's League rosters. Per UEFA rules (ok that link is hilarious), Lukaku would be one of 8 rules-complying players for Chelsea (or any BPL club).
 
The 25-man UEFA Champions League 'A List' squad must include no more than 17 'non-homegrown' players. The UEFA definition of homegrown is a player who was trained for at least three years between the age of 15 and 21 at a club within the relevant national association. Of the 8 places reserved for homegrown players, 4 must have been trained by the club for this length of time (not including time spent on loan).  
 

mgoblue2

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Call me crazy but Kone is closer to fitness than it sounded a while ago and he could be the difference. He was one of the few Wigan players last season who were even slightly effective/productive. Whether or not he's good enough to turn in good performances week in week out is probably a lean towards no but is a better option than Mirallas or Naismith and probably better than a disinterested Lukaku as well. That's also a reference from the last couple posts as well, as Kone's 31 I think and signing Lukaku is IMO the wrong way to use 20 million pounds, where it could be spent in midfield. Replace Osman with an all around better midfielder and maybe one of those opening shots goes in and changes the match. A permanent striker is a definite necessity but for every derby double or winner against West Ham (what poetry!) there have been frustrating lean periods. I have my doubts that he's the man of the future.

Also on a side note screw you British media. The Guardian linked Seamus freaking Coleman with Manchester United. Will it ever end with media linking Everton players elsewhere? (No.) I mean, Christ, there was a ten million pound difference this year with net gain/loss and financials look positive compared to the last few years of Moyes. I think RM didn't buy because of his repeated desire not to mess with chemistry.
 

allaboutthesox

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mgoblue2 said:
Call me crazy but Kone is closer to fitness than it sounded a while ago and he could be the difference. He was one of the few Wigan players last season who were even slightly effective/productive. Whether or not he's good enough to turn in good performances week in week out is probably a lean towards no but is a better option than Mirallas or Naismith and probably better than a disinterested Lukaku as well. That's also a reference from the last couple posts as well, as Kone's 31 I think and signing Lukaku is IMO the wrong way to use 20 million pounds, where it could be spent in midfield. Replace Osman with an all around better midfielder and maybe one of those opening shots goes in and changes the match. A permanent striker is a definite necessity but for every derby double or winner against West Ham (what poetry!) there have been frustrating lean periods. I have my doubts that he's the man of the future.

Also on a side note screw you British media. The Guardian linked Seamus freaking Coleman with Manchester United. Will it ever end with media linking Everton players elsewhere? (No.) I mean, Christ, there was a ten million pound difference this year with net gain/loss and financials look positive compared to the last few years of Moyes. I think RM didn't buy because of his repeated desire not to mess with chemistry.
 
Sorry, but based on what little I have seen of Kone, that was 5 million pounds wasted on that transfer.  Lukaku is apparently a pipe dream (based on what SF121 linked), but to call him the "wrong" way to spend 20 million pounds is disingenous.  He is 20 years old and has proven he fits the system and can score goals in the BPL and he is only going to get better.  Lukaku is hungry to prove himself and at 20 million pounds would be a steal for Everton.  Osman might not be the answer, but provides composure and cover while Barkley is developing.  I really like the way Martinez is bringing Barkley along.  He allows him to express himself on the pitch, but doesn't run him into the ground or allow him to make too many mistakes.  Everton may lack another central midfielder, but they can be found easily at a fair price as well.  I think Everton have too many midfielders that are wingers and fortunately when we have had injuries we have had coverage.  But imagine a scenario where we don't have as many injuries and now we have players wanting more time on the pitch that is available.  IF we should qualify for Europe (CL or Europa League) we will need more players and there will be enough time to go around. 
 
As it pertains to Coleman, I think he should have been the one Martinez looked to lock up instead of Baines.  While I thoroughly appreciate Baines and all he has done, Oviedo did a very good job of filling in for Baines and may even fit the system just as well as Baines does.  Baines production has been down and I think to sell him to Manchester United wouldn't have been a bad idea to bring in my revenue for the summer window.  Coleman is 25 years old and the past three seasons he has been a revelation for Everton and is definitely a keeper. 
 
RM may not want to mess with chemistry on this team, but I think he is starting to see how we need more than 1 or 2 options at certain positions.  If Everton can make the CL, the windfall would allow him to expand the squad.  I think over the next two summer transfer windows this team will be completely different from the one we see today (as far as personnel).
 
As far as the financials, maybe the net gain takes into account the sale of Fellaini (27 million), Anichebe (6 million), and Jelavic amongst others.  Whereas the spending was lower as most of our "upgrades" were loan deals.  Keep this in mind as well as it pertains to Moyes.  He netted Everton money in the transfer market over his tenure at Everton.
 
I can't stress how favorable the schedule is for us over the next 13 games and how Everton finishes this year will tell us more about how Everton have developed under Martinez.  So far, the style of play is more attractive, but the peripherals are almost the same as last year.
 

mgoblue2

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Steven Naismith, goal poacher extraordinaire. Into the quarters.

Baines has not missed a penalty for Everton.
 

PedroSpecialK

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This is kind of troubling considering Naismith was allowed to continue playing for a few minutes:
 


Everton ‏@Everton
RM: "Steven [Naismith] has concussion and couldn't remember scoring. I've told him he scored from 40 yards." #EFC
 

allaboutthesox

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PedroSpecialK said:
This is kind of troubling considering Naismith was allowed to continue playing for a few minutes:
 
 
When I was watching the game they showed the collision in slow motion and Naismith took it right on the jaw first and then the head.  It was a bit of a nasty collision.
 

mgoblue2

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What a weekend for Liverpool.

Next four games are West Ham home, Cardiff home, Swansea home, and Fulham away. Anything less than 12 points can kiss UCL goodbye, though you probably can at this point.
 

mgoblue2

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Both Lukaku and Barkley have been much better than they were of late, Lukaku was dreadful before the injury at Anfield.
 

mgoblue2

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Aaaaaand just as I say that they waste the second half. Lukaku should've passed earlier, Barkley should've scored. Joel is not the keeper of the future. I just don't know anymore.
 

allaboutthesox

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mgoblue2 said:
Aaaaaand just as I say that they waste the second half. Lukaku should've passed earlier, Barkley should've scored. Joel is not the keeper of the future. I just don't know anymore.
 
Yeah, and I was a bit surprised that mid week (before the game) that Martinez was a bit chatty about Joel and letting him finish the last two games of the Cup if Everton advanced.  Which is a bit surprising as Howard has had a very good year this year.  I wonder if Martinez sees Tim Howard as his keeper over the next 2-3 years.  I realize Martinez is doing his due diligence as Howard is now 35, but keepers can play awhile longer and Howard has played well for club and country.
 
The lack of depth has really hurt this team and it was something I alluded to earlier in the thread.  Everton is going to have money to spend during the summer transfer window, but they are going to need a striker with Lukaku going back to Chelsea.  Kone, Naismith, or Mirallas are not the answer up top and for Martinez's system.  This summer and next season are critical for Everton or Martinez is going to find out that finishing 6th and seventh isn't just due to style of play alone.  There has to be an effort to bring in players and manage game time as well. 
 
This team is fading fast and right now I sure would like to see a late season David Moyes run to at least qualify for the Europa League.
 

soxfan121

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I wonder how much MLS's "bring every USMNT player home" recent big contracts and fees are affecting Howard's long term future at Everton. Everyone else is moving to MLS, why not Tim?
 

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soxfan121 said:
I wonder how much MLS's "bring every USMNT player home" recent big contracts and fees are affecting Howard's long term future at Everton. Everyone else is moving to MLS, why not Tim?
 
Well his current contract expires in June of 2016, but I imagine Howard still wants to play in the EPL at least until that point and see what the future holds from there on.  I really hope he stays and plays until the end of his contract as Robles doesn't show any signs of being ready to play.
 

allaboutthesox

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Welcome back Rodwell?
 
Ok, well it appears Everton is going to try to bring Rodwell back during the summer transfer window.  I don't have a problem with this per se, but it does warrant some thought.  Rodwell was a great player for Everton.................when he could stay healthy.  Reminds me of a current Everton player known as Darren Gibson.  It would seem to me that Martinez is thinking that Rodwell may come on the cheap and add depth at the position that Gibson plays.  Or he is looking to put him in the Starting XI in place of Gibson.  I do like the idea, but the deal has to be right (in terms of fee and wages). I can't imagine Rodwell not wanting to come back and play at Everton.
 
To have Coleman, Rodwell, and Barkley becoming the foundation of this team going forward is something I would like.  This summer is going to be a very good and interesting summer.
 

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Feels good to get the win to keep our slim Europe hopes alive.  The Cardiff City keep (Mitchell) was fantastic in goal for them and more than likely the only reason the game wasn't a route by Everton.  Everton carried the majority of possession and created some chances, but I do think from that possession we should have had more shots on goal.  I do think that Martinez is trying his best to keep the players fresh with substitutions earlier in the game as this squad is lacking in depth.  We are now 3 points clear of Manchester United for 6th and 2pts behind Tottenham for 5th.  We also have a game in hand as well on both of those teams.  Everton have a favorable 3 game stretch coming up and I would dare say we need all 9 points available to keep our European hopes alive.
 

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allaboutthesox said:
Well his current contract expires in June of 2016, but I imagine Howard still wants to play in the EPL at least until that point and see what the future holds from there on.  I really hope he stays and plays until the end of his contract as Robles doesn't show any signs of being ready to play.
I wonder how important, financially and personally, his NBCSN broadcasting job is to Howard. If that's his after-soccer aspiration, he should stay in England. More likely than MLS, I think, would be a team qualified for Europe needs a keeper comes calling, especially if any uncertainty about Martinez's future with the club was to become the subject of real rumors.
 

mgoblue2

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A quiet slip into 5th place is a good sign, Europe is not clinched but it does look very very realistic at this stage. The defense went to crap after the third goal but Martinez tried to play Swansea on the counter. Either way, a bigger test is Newcastle. A win at St. James and some results going their way in the rest of the month could lock up the Europa League if nothing else.
 

soxfan121

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Don't sell yourselves short. Arsenal might just implode and if you rack up enough points, it could be time for some Champions League at Goodison next season.
 

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soxfan121 said:
Don't sell yourselves short. Arsenal might just implode and if you rack up enough points, it could be time for some Champions League at Goodison next season.
 
This would be spectacular as I saw this more of a "transition" year if you will (based on the time to implement his [Martinez's style of play]).  Europa League would be nice, but CL would be even better.  I just don't see Arsenal imploding though, too much talent on that team despite the 6-0 drubbing they just took.  Sometimes talent can overcome bad tactics or bad luck.
 
Tottenham is up on us by 2 points right now, but we have a game in hand as well.  Four games loom big for Everton's European dreams:  Newcastle (previously mentioned by Mgoblue2), Manchester United,  Manchester City, and Arsenal.  Everton need to win two of the games I think to keep their hopes alive.  Reason I mention this is that Tottenham has 1 game against a top 8 team going forward.  So their schedule is very favorable to them.  It should be an interesting week for the Toffees with a game on March 25 and March 30th.
 
Arsenal has a very favorable schedule down the stretch as well.  An implosion may happen, but I just can't see it happening with all things considered.  To finish 6th this year would be very respectable, BUT Everton must build on this by holding onto Coleman, Barkley and invest in a striker (assuming there is no way for Lukaku to stay).  We need more players to add some more depth if we do qualify for Europe.
 

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If Arsenal win the FA Cup, you guys are pretty much a lock for Europe as long as you don't lose to Newcastle, right?  
 
I could see that being huge for Everton's ability to attract new loan signings from clubs that want their players to learn from Martinez's style.  Plenty of European games against clubs Everton should be able to handle would expand the opportunities throughout the squad.
 

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DLew On Roids said:
If Arsenal win the FA Cup, you guys are pretty much a lock for Europe as long as you don't lose to Newcastle, right?  
 
I could see that being huge for Everton's ability to attract new loan signings from clubs that want their players to learn from Martinez's style.  Plenty of European games against clubs Everton should be able to handle would expand the opportunities throughout the squad.
 
If Arsenal win the FA Cup, then the runner up still qualifies for Europe and takes a place away from league finishers (assuming Arsenal make top four).  In all likelihood, only the 5th and 6th place teams in the league will go to the Europa League so its really Spurs and ManU that Everton needs to worry about.
 

swiftaw

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Yeah, the winner/runner up of the FA Cup is getting a Europa place, so only 5th and 6th in the league will get one. It's pretty much 3 teams for 2 spots. 
 

mgoblue2

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Barkley has quite the eye for the spectacular doesn't he? One of his better goals this season. 1-0
 

DLew On Roids

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Thanks for the reminder on the Cup runners-up, guys. Should've remembered that.

Of course, at the hour mark of these matches you're looking pretty good for 6th...
 

mgoblue2

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And tonight even the mighty Leon Osman manages to poke one into the top right corner. Go and do that at Southampton and I'll be proud.
 

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In present form, it's hard to imagine Arsenal beating Man City this weekend.  If Everton win away at Fulham, Everton very well could have a crack at Arsenal at home with fourth place on the line.  (Goal difference would be at the most +1 Arsenal.)
 
I would think it unlikely that Everton could hold on to the 4 spot viz. Arsenal given the disparity in schedule coming down the stretch after that game.  But with Arsenal now having to put all hands on deck to win the FA cup and in a bit of freefall in the league, I really wouldn't count Everton out of a CL spot yet.  
 

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The key from here will be keeping away from the odd draw against a bottom half team. Continue playing with the verve and fluidity they did tonight and wins against Arsenal, United, and Southampton are very possible. Drawing City is the best I can think of. With 2 draws from here on in, that would add another 20 points to the current tally. Easier said than done but that would definitely put them in the good spots. The draws (I assume) would come in the City match and either Arsenal or Southampton. Could an Andy Johnson 2007 moment put Everton into The Promised Land? At this point I'll rule nothing out.
 

mgoblue2

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A brilliant pass from McGeady sets up Kevin Mirallas for 2-1 before Naismith taps one in for 3. All eyes on Sunday. Defensive issues will hopefully be fixed by Jagielka coming back, although Stones was one of the better performers out there.
 

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mgoblue2 said:
A brilliant pass from McGeady sets up Kevin Mirallas for 2-1 before Naismith taps one in for 3. All eyes on Sunday. Defensive issues will hopefully be fixed by Jagielka coming back, although Stones was one of the better performers out there.
 
Stones has been fantastic and was another good pick up by Moyes.  Say what you want about Moyes tactics, he does have an eye for talent.  Baines, Coleman, Rodwell, Barkley, Stones, Rooney, Arteta and others are good examples.
 
Martinez has shown a keen eye for form and when and how to motivate players without necessarily being direct with them.  Mirallas is an example of that.  Mirallas was the starter initially and was in form early.  However, he lost a bit of form and Martinez knew when to bring a Deulofeu (who is in fine form as well) in.  Mirallas gets into the game as a sub and has an instant impact within 5 minutes by scoring a great goal.  Naismith has found his niche under Martinez as a super sup/spot starter.  Naismith is good enough for that role, but I do not want him starting on a regular basis.
 
Martinez is starting to make a believer out of me, but I am still somewhat skiddish still as I want to wait and see how the season ends and measure him against the results of his predecessor.  For all the possession Everton tends to have against its opponents, if he produces a season statistically as Moyes has produced then the only thing we have seen is a team that may play a more attractive style.  However, the substance (wins vs draws) will still be lacking.  I do believe that Martinez is on pace to get Everton more points than Moyes did at Everton (65 is the most under Moyes).  So I may have owe SF121 an apology for doubting what he saw as compared to what I saw.
 
I am enjoying Everton's football at the moment and hope we can get the result against Arsenal.  In the same breath, I still say Arsenal have the easier path to the Champions League next season with the 4 point lead and the easier schedule to finish out the season.  I am looking forward to the end of the season and writing my season conclusion post. 
 

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Even without the dreds, Lukaku is an absolute beast.  Imagine him with Chelsea - a striker that could actually score with regularity.  Regardless, stick to the Gunners, Blues, stick it to them.
 
 
*edit for a lack of being able to spell
 

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mgoblue2 said:
Yeah I didn't expect this.
I actually kind of did.  Maybe not as easy as it ended up being, but I would have taken you guys if forced to choose.  The difference in confidence in the 2 sides was massive.
 
Really, really impressed with Everton's performance today. If you were chasing anyone but Arsenal for 4th place, I'd be 100% behind you.
 
Stupid hypothetical: suppose you're Roberto Martinez, and at the end of the season Everton finishes 4th and Arsenal 5th. Arsene Wenger steps down, and Arsenal asks you to become their manager. Do you say yes?
 

mgoblue2

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1 point out of fourth.

#MakeUsDream

As much as this was a best performance under Martinez and the like, Arsenal were dire. I don't think Giroud was on the pitch and Lukaku exploited Monreal from the off. That said, holy crap that performance. Freewheeling, creative, everything a prototypical Martinez team should be. I think with the right players in the future, a RM team (at Everton mind you) can win the title. This was everything it could've been and more. I'm expecting a draw at home to City but after that I think 5 more wins are within reason. Best wing back duo in the Prem.
 

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In other news, with Manchester United being eliminated from the CL if Everton do finish fourth they will be in the CL next year.  Had Manchester United found a way to win the CL and Everton had finished fourth, there would not have been a CL spot for Everton as the defending champ automatically qualifies for the CL.
 
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