Fighting for the Title
Arsenal - Homer pick but I do think there is a simple case: Arsenal performed at a title winning level last year, they have very few players likely to experience age related decline, and their squad has improved over the summer. A couple more additions this window would give me more confidence.
City - If we're being honest they should be favorites but not overwhelming ones. One of the biggest questions for me is whether Pep, who is a master man manager, can keep his team fully 100% focused and motivated when they have the charges and the possibility of a points deduction hanging over their heads as well as a general sense among the squad that this could be the last year for this group and that Pep and many big players will be leaving next summer.
Top Four/Five Scrap
Liverpool - A league challenge seems unlikely as even if Slot is successful, his lack of experience within the PL and dealing with the rigors of a PL season is going to cost them points. But as long as neither Salah nor VVD fall off a cliff or sustain a big injury, they should be favorites for third.
Newcastle - Getting slept on. They were the fourth best team in the league by XG last year despite a horrific run of injuries and now get a season without European football, which suits Eddie Howe's style well.
Chelsea - I think Maresca may get some big wake up calls and that their defense in particular could look disastrous at times. But they've got the talent and depth to make a serious run for top four/five.
Spurs - I could easily see them finishing a place or two higher or lower. The biggest issues will be how Ange's style holds up when playing twice a week and, more broadly, whether Ange shows the adaptability to play in different ways. There are too many different circumstances within a season. You need more clubs in your bag than a super energized high press without the ball and a possession game that relies on just pushing the fullbacks forward to create risky superiorities.
Is Qualifying for the Conference League a Good Thing?
United - I just fundamentally don't believe in Ten Hag. They have the talent to do better than this but I don't think he is the guy to put it together and create a team that can control matches and win consistently.
Villa - Due for a fall, playing in the CL is going to stress them and they really outperformed XG last year.
Brighton - Amassing a really impressive new crop of young talent and as long as the new teenage manager isn't a flop, I think they'll eventually be a handful.
Solidly Midtable
Crystal Palace - A hard team to judge as a lot depends on whether they sell other big players. Glasner had them firing last spring and I think they could lose Olise, as talented as he is, and keep chugging along pretty well. If you also strip Eze and Guehi that is going to be a lot tougher.
West Ham - The hire of Lopetegui and a big window should see them bounce back, although not far enough to qualify for Europe. I like their business other than the Fullkrug buy.
Brentford - Just a well run club. They had really bad injury issues, the Toney suspension, and terrible XG luck last year and were still fine. I think they'll breath easier this season.
Everton - If some of their summer moves to bolster the offense come off, I think they'll have enough for a solid mid to lower-midtable season that leaves their fans less stressed come April/May.
Fulham - The lost a big chunk of their spine in Palhinha, Tosin, and Ream and probably still have some business to do in finding replacements. But I think they've got enough going forward - now abetted by ESR - to win just enough games to stay above the relegation fray.
Bournemouth - Iraola is a really good manager. Can Evanilson replace enough of Solanke's production? I think that's the big question. If he flops, they could end up in the relegation battle but if he's at least decent they should limp to safety.
Looking the Drop in the Face
Nottingham Forest - They've invested so much in the club but I just don't know if they've seen that much of a return in terms of quality. I foresee another struggle until the end that could easily go the wrong way.
Leicester - Heading right back down seems like a real possibility to me given their financial constraints.
Wolves - I rate Gary O'Neill but how long can they keep selling all their best players before it all falls apart. By XG they were relegation level last season and now they've sold Neto and Kilman.
Ipswich - Kieran McKenna may be a great young manager but the PL is a tough place to hang out if you simply don't have the player talent. Half this squad was plying their trade in League 1 a couple years ago.
Southampton - This wasn't a particularly good Championship team and they really haven't done much in the market to improve.
Golden Boot - Erling Haaland
PoTY - Martin Odegaard
First manager sacked - Russell Martin
