English Premier League 2013/14 - The Second Half

cjdmadcow

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Jul 16, 2005
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Given that the weekend just gone marked the halfway point for this season’s Premier League, I thought it might be worth looking forward the rest of the way and assessing the relative strength of schedule for the leading contenders.
 
An obvious separation between top and bottom has now developed with Newcastle in 8th on 33 points and Hull in 10th on 23 points, leaving Southampton stuck in the middle. As I didn’t want to exclude anyone from this analysis I’ve included Southampton in the top group of 9 teams, seeing as they’ve spent most of the season at that end of the table.
 
It’s an 8-way fight for the top 4 places and the glamour (read ‘cash’) of the Champions League, though it may only be a 3-way for the title itself.
 
Liverpool have the most home games left against the top sides (6) and Man City the fewest (2).
Arsenal, Man City & Man Utd have the most home games left against teams in the bottom half (7), Liverpool & Chelsea the least (4)
 
Local rivalries - Liverpool & Everton still have to play each other, as do Utd & City, but the London teams have it harder - Arsenal, Chelsea & Spurs each have 5 London derbies to play.
 
Arsenal, City, Chelsea and Utd all have last-16 Champions League games to contend with and in City & Utd’s case they also have a 2-legged Capital One Cup semi-final to play as well. 
 
And everyone joins in the FA Cup 3rd-round now as well, starting this coming weekend.
 
Here’s the breakdown for the remaining fixtures. Formatting could be better but you probably get the idea:
 
Arsenal:                                   Home                                   Away
Games Left vs Top 9 -             Man U                                  Liverpool        Chelsea
                                                Man C                                  Everton           Spurs
                                                Newcastle                            Southampton
 
 
Games Left vs Bottom 10 -        Cardiff      Swansea             Aston Villa
                                                 Fulham     West Ham           Stoke
                                                 C.Palace   WBA                   Hull
                                                 Sunderland                          Norwich
 
 
Man City:                                  Home                                    Away
Vs Top 9 -                                Chelsea                                 Newcastle    Liverpool
                                                Southampton                         Man U          Everton
                                                                                              Spurs
                                                                                              Arsenal
 
Vs Bottom 10 -                         Cardiff         Fulham              Swansea
                                                 Sunderland WBA                  Norwich
                                                 Stoke          West Ham          Hull
                                                 Aston Villa                             C.Palace
 
 
Chelsea:                                   Home                                    Away
Vs Top 9 -                                 Man U    Arsenal                  Southampton
                                                 Everton                                 Man C
                                                 Newcastle                            Liverpool
                                                 Spurs
 
Vs Bottom 10 -                         West Ham                             Hull              C.Palace
                                                 Stoke                                    West Brom  Swansea
                                                 Sunderland                           Fulham        Cardiff
                                                 Norwich                                Aston Villa
 
 
Everton:                                    Home                                    Away
Vs Top 9 -                                 Arsenal                                 Liverpool N’castle
                                                 Man U                                   Spurs
                                                 Man C                                   Southampton
                                                                                              Chelsea
 
Vs Bottom 10 -                         Norwich     Cardiff                 Stoke      Hull
                                                 Aston Villa  Swansea            WBA
                                                C.Palace                                Fulham
                                                West Ham                              Sunderland
 
Liverpool:                                 Home                                    Away
Vs Top 9 -                                 Everton    Chelsea                 Southampton
                                                 Arsenal    Newcastle              Man U
                                                 Spurs
                                                 Man City
 
Vs Bottom 10 -                         Hull                                         Stoke     W.Ham
                                                 Aston Villa                              WBA      Norwich
                                                Swansea                                 Fulham  C.Palace
                                                Sunderland                             Cardiff
 
Man Utd:                                  Home                                      Away
Vs Top 9 -                                Spurs                                      Chelsea   Southampton
                                                Man C                                     Arsenal
                                                Liverpool                                 Newcastle
                                                                                               Everton
 
Vs Bottom 10 -                        Swansea   Hull                        Stoke
                                                Cardiff       Sunderland            WBA
                                               Fulham       Norwich                 C.Palace
                                               Aston Villa                                West Ham
 
 
Tottenham:                             Home                                        Away
Vs Top 9 -                               Man C                                      Man U
                                               Everton                                    Newcastle
                                               Arsenal                                     Chelsea
                                               Southampton                           Liverpool
 
Vs Bottom 10 -                       C.Palace    Aston Villa             Swansea    Stoke
                                               Cardiff                                     Hull             West Ham
                                               Sunderland                             Norwich
                                              Fulham                                     WBA
 
Newcastle:                              Home                                        Away
Vs Top 9 -                                Man C                                        Chelsea
                                                Spurs                                         Southampton
                                                Everton                                      Arsenal
                                                Man U                                        Liverpool
 
Vs Bottom 10 -                        Sunderland    Cardiff                  WBA      Fulham
                                                Aston Villa                                  WHU      Stoke
                                               C.Palace                                     Norwich
                                               Swansea                                     Hull
 

sachmoney

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Jun 14, 2008
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Tim Thomas' Bunker
Arsenal's March schedule as of now:
at Stoke
Swansea
at Bayern Munich
at Tottenham
at Chelsea
Manchester City
 
I haven't looked at other teams' schedules, but as far as "critical stretches," that will be Arsenal's. 
 

blueguitar322

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Sep 20, 2005
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sachmoney said:
Arsenal's March schedule as of now:
at Stoke
Swansea
at Bayern Munich
at Tottenham
at Chelsea
Manchester City
 
I haven't looked at other teams' schedules, but as far as "critical stretches," that will be Arsenal's. 
And their first game in April is @Everton
 

soxfan121

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Chelsea seems to have the easiest "down the stretch" schedule with a ton of winnable away games, only two quality opponents away and three quality home opponents. 
 
Oh, and they have Jose. And Jose is always winning.
 

tmracht

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Chelsea really has a chance to make a move if they can stay consistent and any of the strikers can start scoring (new or someone from the current roster).  Jose has a knack for making something outta nothing. 
 
City has a pretty rough second half...tons of tough road fixtures. 
 
Tottenham has a bunch of points to make up but the kind of schedule that could see them grabbing a top 4 spot.

Pool needs to get healthy, they cant keep limping along without enough 1st teamers to even field a full squad.

Arsenal though has a boatload of winnable games down the stretch at home.
 
Gonna be an exciting second half.
 

soxfan121

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These are some interesting graphs, yeah? Source: Stats Bomb
 

 

 
It's at the end of a long 2nd half predictions post and part of the author's argument that the BPL should take a winter break of 10+ days after New Year's and cut one game out of the schedule during the holiday blitz. 
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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That injury pattern looks pretty bad to me. I'm sure there's all sorts of TV implications in terms of the holiday schedule though so I wouldn't be expecting major changes anytime soon.

I actually happened on that Stats Bomb site for the first time earlier today. They have some pretty interesting other stuff as well.  This is from an article about ManU's chances of making the Top 4 but its pretty interesting for thinking about all the teams, under the assumption that shots for and against and prime shot opportunities captures something meaningful about team quality that is less prone to variance than won/loss record.
 

 

 
-Arsenal are only 7th in shots and 6th in shots conceded but take the second most shots from prime positions and concede the least shots from those positions.
 
-Spurs are basically the opposite of Arsenal.
 
-City blow everybody away when it comes to prime position scoring opportunities.
 
-United are essentially a high midtable team when it comes to shooting statistics, especially prime opportunities for and against.
 
-Fulham and Cardiff are just fucking awful, while Palace is probably unlucky to be bottom of the table.
 

PedroSpecialK

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This is out of the blue, but former Edmonton Oilers coach Ralph Krueger will go to work for Southampton after the Sochi games.
 
Between this and Nicola Cortese's departure, who knows what's going on in Soton.
 

SoxFanInCali

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California. Duh.
While plenty has been said about the race for the title and Champions League places, what is amazing to me is only 4 points separate 10th place Swansea from the relegation zone.  In fact, it's only 7 points from Swansea to basement-dwelling Fulham.
 
Newcastle and Southampton are out of relegation danger but are probably too far down to get into contention for a European spot.  The other 18 teams all still have something to play for.
 

LTF

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I was pointing that out to my Scouser son this weekend -- how close the 10th-place club is to relegation. That, and the logjam at the top pretty much means every Premier League match, every weekend, no matter who is playing, is a big one.
 

Cellar-Door

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LTF said:
I was pointing that out to my Scouser son this weekend -- how close the 10th-place club is to relegation. That, and the logjam at the top pretty much means every Premier League match, every weekend, no matter who is playing, is a big one.
West Ham moved from 18th place on the 1st of February to 10th place by the 11th of February. That is insane, 8 places in 10 days.