ECF Game 3--MARCUS

bankshot1

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I don't know the context of your single-sentence pull from the study, but I jumped to the conclusion of that study and to quote it.

Conclusion

The existing research on the effectiveness of timeouts on short-term performance in basketball (Mace et. al.; Roane et. al.) supported the idea that timeouts can be highly effective at aiding short-term performance
. The findings from this paper support this idea that timeouts can be effective at enhancing performance, but at a smaller magnitude. Regardless of whether a team was home or away, the short-term scoring ratio for teams that called timeout following six consecutive points being scored against them was higher than the short-term scoring ratio for teams that did not call a timeout following six consecutive points being scored against them. The most significant of these results, the home-team with the first-half restriction, shows a .21 increase in average ratio for the next ten points, meaning that calling a timeout predicts that the home-team will score 5.47 out of the next ten points as opposed to 5.26 points when a timeout is not called. This result is small, but supports the idea that timeouts can be a marginally effective tool for coaches to use to help their teams win.


The conclusion matchs my observations, all unrecorded, some biased by rooting preference, others not, but collected over thousands of games from 6 decades of watching the NBA, that sometimes a coach needs to call a TO.

YMMV
 

Saints Rest

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My intuition about the effectiveness of timeouts for stopping momentum stems more from the idea that it is more tiring to be losing than winning, so a run can work like a ball rolling downhill as the losing side gets more tired and discouraged. A timeout allows the team to rest and for the coach to remind them of some basic fundamentals on each end. Plus a timeout sets you up with a side out situation so it allows for a more controlled situation for getting a basket.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I think this is like “clutch” discussions in baseball, where the desire to get a larger sample size and statistically significant causal factor, while well intentioned, lump together too many things for signal to ever come through.

I realize the challenge there: it could sound like saying data can never contradict intuition. That isn’t my point or, I think, the case. But it does mean we likely need more nuanced assessment of the reasons for a “run” (fatigue? Schematic adjustment? Random variation in outcomes? Nervousness? Etc). I highly suspect some of those are well addressed and some are not by a TO
 

lars10

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I think the elbow to the face on the rip is a cousin to the automatic high stick in hockey. The onus to control the stick/elbow and not hit the face is on the player with the weapon. Which is ok with me. Aside from the leg contact, robinson can certainly stick his face in there. It's like running over a smaller guy setting a pick. It's a foul, and if the little pick setter wants to keep getting blasted, gig bless him. If robinson wants to trade teeth for fouls.....

At the same time, the NBA needs something akin to the nhls follow-through exception.
The problem I’ve had is where Robinson’s foot is.. it means that Brown can’t pivot easily and put the ball down without going through his face. The footwork required to put the ball down sort of requires you to shift to one side or the other... or he’d have to step back. But if he does that Robinson just gets closer and there’s basically no way to not travel.

this playoff is the most elbows to the face I’ve ever seen.. and it’s all seemed intentional by the defender almost. I don’t know what the rule is but I feel like the intent is for the offensive player to be allowed space. The automatic flagrant insentivizes players to try and get elbowed because it’s foul shots and the ball.
 

DJnVa

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I don't know the context of your single-sentence pull from the study, but I jumped to the conclusion of that study and to quote it.
The context of my pull quote, also from the conclusion is pretty clear, no?

The commonly held belief expressed by coaches, fans, and the media that timeouts are necessary to halt positive momentum is not supported by the data in this study
All in all, it seems team-dependent and not something that should be adopted by every team everywhere:

The implication is that although timeouts may not be effective for halting momentum, they still tend to benefit the performance of the teams who call them.
 
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bankshot1

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The context of my pull quote, also from the conclusion is pretty clear, no?
I think the use of the word "necessary" in that single-sentence pull ifrom the study is meaningful, as no one is arguing that TOs are necessary in stopping runs or momentum. And is somewhat misleading as a stand-alone statement.

"The commonly held belief expressed by coaches, fans, and the media that timeouts are necessary to halt positive momentum is not supported by the data in this study"
No one is arguing "necessary".

But rather, useful.



And as the conclusion plainly states

"The existing research on the effectiveness of timeouts on short-term performance in basketball (Mace et. al.; Roane et. al.) supported the idea that timeouts can be highly effective at aiding short-term performance. The findings from this paper support this idea that timeouts can be effective at enhancing performance, but at a smaller magnitude."

The study found TOs can be effective in short-term game situations.
 
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DJnVa

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For the record, I simply went and found a study. I lean towards letting Stevens decide what is best for his bunch.
 
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I think the use of the word "necessary" in that single-sentence pull ifrom the study is meaningful, as no one is arguing that TOs are necessary in stopping runs or momentum. And is somewhat misleading as a stand-alone statement.



No one is arguing "necessary".

But rather, useful.



And as the conclusion plainly states

"The existing research on the effectiveness of timeouts on short-term performance in basketball (Mace et. al.; Roane et. al.) supported the idea that timeouts can be highly effective at aiding short-term performance. The findings from this paper support this idea that timeouts can be effective at enhancing performance, but at a smaller magnitude."

The study found TOs can effective in short-term game situations.
Do we know if Mr. Permutt typed this paper in his mother's basement?
 

bankshot1

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For the record, I simply went and found a study. I lean towards letting Stevens decide what is best for his bunch.
As do I, as Brad has the best guage as to what may or may not motivate team behavior or change in team short-term performance, but Brad is not above reasoned criticism, from the TV room, man-cave or mom's basement.
 

ifmanis5

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TOs are more than just stopping runs, it's also about managing rest. Brad shortening the rotation but also not using timeouts to give rest is bad. No wonder they were gassed again at the end of the game.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I think this is like “clutch” discussions in baseball, where the desire to get a larger sample size and statistically significant causal factor, while well intentioned, lump together too many things for signal to ever come through.

I realize the challenge there: it could sound like saying data can never contradict intuition. That isn’t my point or, I think, the case. But it does mean we likely need more nuanced assessment of the reasons for a “run” (fatigue? Schematic adjustment? Random variation in outcomes? Nervousness? Etc). I highly suspect some of those are well addressed and some are not by a TO
I haven't read either of the papers posted and I'm not going to but I agree that just looking at timeouts and resulting scores isn't terribly helpful. The biggest variable that would need to be controlled IMO is substitutions. Calling TO during a run to get a player in the game is a lot different than calling TO to "stop momentum". I could also imagine that TOs earlier in the game are different than TOs down the stretch, especially if we think fatigue is a factor.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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RedOctober3829

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I think the timeout things is largely a feel thing with a coach. I personally think they help because you can tell players what’s going wrong and try to fix it before things get even worse. If you don’t have a group who can figure it out on their own, a timeout in those situations can settle them down and get them back to playing the right way. I think to a fault sometimes Brad trusts his guys to fix it without TOs. There are times where he does do it and times he doesn’t and it works out a lot of times either way. However there are instances in big spots where he could call a timeout to reset and doesn’t which comes back to bite them. I feel like the lead would not have gotten down to 5 last night if he called a TO. An instance like last night it might have been good to call it, point out things they went over in scout about doing things differently to close out games, and get the team on a better track. Now, they did end up stemming the tide so maybe they are fine but in the moment it was fair to wonder why a timeout was called.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The Celtics proprietary data would be key here. I would be shocked if this is something Stevens came up with and implemented solely based on his experience. Most NBA teams and especially Boston seem to use data to inform every aspect of decision making.
 

ifmanis5

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IIRC, Phil Jackson would never call TO. Also, Dean Smith would horde TOs to the end when he could use them to swap lineups. https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/unc/article62744727.html

Yes, Pops would call TO but according to this article, sometimes he didn't say anything to his players: View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1983480-gregg-popovich-reveals-timeout-secret-ive-got-nothing
. Of course, Pops picked Bagley Jr. over Bam so what does he know? :-0
Dean Smith was definitely an extreme example of a TO hoarder. But in college, he was able to stack his roster in a way that he had such a huge talent disparity in almost every game he played that it's not really apples to apples.
 

DeadlySplitter

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are the Celtics gassed at the end of games, or are they just falling into awful habits with ISO / clock killing? I can't say definitively they are gassed because of lack of timeouts.
 

Saints Rest

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IIRC, Phil Jackson would never call TO. Also, Dean Smith would horde TOs to the end when he could use them to swap lineups. https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/unc/article62744727.html

Yes, Pops would call TO but according to this article, sometimes he didn't say anything to his players. Of course, Pops picked Bagley Jr. over Bam so what does he know? :D
When did the rule that limits timeouts in the last 2 minutes go into effect? It seems to me that if that is a relatively recent change, or if it is only an NBA rule, than the data set becomes even smaller, as it changes the late-game value of timeouts so significantly.
 

ifmanis5

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When did the rule that limits timeouts in the last 2 minutes go into effect? It seems to me that if that is a relatively recent change, or if it is only an NBA rule, than the data set becomes even smaller, as it changes the late-game value of timeouts so significantly.
2017-18 when everybody complained that the games took too long, especially at the end. But with the replay challenges they take too long anyway.
Effective with this 2017-18 season, the maximum number of timeouts in a regulation game will drop from 18 to 14. And in a major modification, instead of allowing each team to call three timeouts in the final two minutes, the new limit will be two timeouts in the final three minutes.
 

Omar's Wacky Neighbor

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Leaving in a bit to the studio :)
Dean Smith was definitely an extreme example of a TO hoarder. But in college, he was able to stack his roster in a way that he had such a huge talent disparity in almost every game he played that it's not really apples to apples.
When John Kuester (who played for Dean Smith) coached BU, he wouldn't call a TO to save his life. It used to drive us crazy.
 

128

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When John Kuester (who played for Dean Smith) coached BU, he wouldn't call a TO to save his life. It used to drive us crazy.
And then there was Pete Gillen, who at Virginia often seemed determined to use them all in the first half. "You don't want to be the richest man in the graveyard," he would say when asked about his timeout philosophy.