DrewDawg said:God help me, but I think this is the region that everything goes to hell and I'll be damned if I don't have Providence surprising everyone.
I want Providence to get a rematch with them to go to the Final 4. Maybe this time it won't end on a bullshit foul call.CoRP said:Practically everyone has Villanova going down early.
There is a good chance that Michigan State would beat Providence in a matchup on the court but what is your basis for such an outrageous claim as to the public line being 6 which is a HUGE number on a neutral court. They aren't even 6 against Georgia, a 10-seed, who is rated below Providence across the board.WayBackVazquez said:Michigan State would be about a six point favorite over Providence.
Yea, I mean, I obviously have a bias here, but MSU has a 1-7 record VS top 25 and 10-8 VS top 100.HomeRunBaker said:There is a good chance that Michigan State would beat Providence in a matchup on the court but what is your basis for such an outrageous claim as to the public line being 6 which is a HUGE number on a neutral court. They aren't even 6 against Georgia, a 10-seed, who is rated below Providence across the board.
CoRP said:Practically everyone has Villanova going down early.
Yeah, probably was a non-call. Cats got very lucky. They played horribly that game.NickEsasky said:I want Providence to get a rematch with them to go to the Final 4. Maybe this time it won't end on a bullshit foul call.
Ha I am sure you will. I mean PC probably loses to Nova in OT anyway, but having the game decided by free throws on a terrible call with 3 seconds left was a tough pill to swallow.CoRP said:I'll take a fourth PC match up over UVA.
I wasn't even referring to the game only wondering what his basis is for having MSU favored by 6. The line would likely be a Pick or 1 either way only due to the Izzo factor.PC Drunken Friar said:Yea, I mean, I obviously have a bias here, but MSU has a 1-7 record VS top 25 and 10-8 VS top 100.
PC is 3-4 top 25 and 12-8 top 100.
HomeRunBaker said:There is a good chance that Michigan State would beat Providence in a matchup on the court but what is your basis for such an outrageous claim as to the public line being 6 which is a HUGE number on a neutral court. They aren't even 6 against Georgia, a 10-seed, who is rated below Providence across the board.
Vegas is not guessing on who they think will win, they are putting the line to attract bets to each side. MSU has the name recognition and tourney reputation that gives them the couple of points extra. Joe Schmo (who i would guess are the majority of NCAA Tournament betters) would look at MSU favored by only 2.5-3.5 and say, WOW, thats easy money, MSU is a great tournament team! And everyone bets MSU.WayBackVazquez said:
Because Vegas really likes MSU, as do all the advanced metrics, which is why MSU was favored by 4.5 (is that a HUGE number?) against Maryland on a neutral court a few days ago despite them being unranked and Maryland being the #8 team in the country.
The line against Georgia is 5.5; I expect it will go up by game time, but the spread differential between a matchup against Providence wouldn't be more than a point or so. So does 5-point favorite make you happier?
If you bet right now, you get Providence at 200:1 to win the tournament. Which are the same exact odds as Georgia. MSU is 50:1.
Yeah, LSU scares me. Potential battle of the bigs. Will be interesting to see if Ochefu and Pinkston can neutralize Martin and Mickey (those two average a double-double) while allowing the Nova guards to shoot 3s. LSU is a great rebounding team and if the Cats can't make shots it could get ugly quickly.Deathofthebambino said:Like everyone else, this is the region that I think has the potential to just go crazy. I like LSU a lot this year as a surprise team, and needing to find an upset somewhere on my bracket, I have them beating 'Nova. Mincey is a stud, and could do real damage to any team that they play against. Northern Iowa and Louisville is virtually a toss-up, IMO. And I think the whole Oklahoma, UVA, MSU, Providence side could send any of those teams through.
You don't have to explain how betting lines work to me. I bet sports, and I watch these things. Which is why, as an objective observer (I have no beef with Providence, and a strong dislike of MSU) rather than a fan of one of these teams, I believe the line would be 5-6 points MSU.PC Drunken Friar said:Vegas is not guessing on who they think will win, they are putting the line to attract bets to each side. MSU has the name recognition and tourney reputation that gives them the couple of points extra. Joe Schmo (who i would guess are the majority of NCAA Tournament betters) would look at MSU favored by only 2.5-3.5 and say, WOW, thats easy money, MSU is a great tournament team! And everyone bets MSU.
So yea, maybe MSU is favored by Vegas, but not because it sees it as the better team. If you really think that it should be a 6.5 (or 5.5 or whatever) point favorite based on talent and are using Vegas lines, what is the rational behind the 7 v 10 game being 4.5-5.5 spread and then, should they win, stay the same (or within a point) if it becomes a 6 v 7 match-up?
shawnrbu said:Dayton would have been tailor made for PC. The team has no depth and has difficulty scoring. If PC can trounce St. John's at MSG, I wouldn't sweat Dayton. Boise will be the tougher opponent.
Obviously the call in the huddle was for something different but Dayton had left the basket pretty open. 13 at the free throw line could have set a pick for 32 before the inbounds and 32 would have been wide open under the basket. Oh well. Sucks that Dayton gets a home game like that.Deathofthebambino said:And Dayton wins. BSU can't get a good shot off, results in a pump fake, hope for the foul, flailing three point air ball.. I think it's a good no call.
Seth Davis did an excellent job of explaining why that was not a foul.. Kyle Davis did leave his feet but had landed before the BSU kid took the shot. The kid tried to create contact but the refs weren't buying what he was selling.bosockboy said:It's a foul in January but not in March.
Two things:Deathofthebambino said:He missed them both. Still a 1 point lead for Dayton. They trap BSU player in the corner, and ball goes out of bounds. BSU about to inbounds with 4 seconds left. Final shot upcoming. This is an absolute home court advantage for Dayton. Announcers are all over that issue right now, saying how the NCAA got this wrong. Can't say I disagree.
Dayton might be a better matchup for PC, but this crowd has been bonkers, and that's a distinct disadvantage for us. Enough to overcome the matchup? I don't know, but it's very real.